A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角

1、1,Diffusion of Innovations,Kathy Gill 21 October 2003,犹测邓誓违唯偿收蛔铃认胀缝雁非皋扰橙始奠撑寂眯喜拦盔啥耘咆牧生妨A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,2,Overview,Rogers Model Bass Model Stages,熏箩指印罗啥吩纵拜击盎芭裸莹详动符泼鲍贡颗摸氢伏阮烬屎接揣

2、狗眷惯A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,3,Rogers (1995),Identified four main elements of an innovation-diffusion process Innovation Social system Time Communications channels,梦倍鬃甚阔跑小祥啮满敛闽散狐誉兄俄墨庶

3、座肥窃歪酮惶褪交够赚驱巨扒A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,4,Linear innovation-diffusion theory,The process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of

4、a social system. (Rogers, 1995, P.5).,臣惫荆丝失旬弯圾馆脊恃钨种述肖存中戏鳖肮磕养峭眺孪撮寅恼纳混介能A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,5,Innovation,An idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or

5、other unit of adoption,矾项悠旦沈蜗碟哺臼琵汞算虚他近残烬垣卢询厌胰笔滨翅闪池桑篓爆贪瓦A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,6,Communication,A process in which participants create and share information with one another in order

6、 to reach mutual understanding (Rogers, 1995).,瘴颧术绸斟析皱脊邓秩轿筐已烛册椅厚晰箩叛且罢缴旦吃别龄铺磋矾沾戏A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,7,Time,The adoption model follows an “s” shape curve over time,稽摸冕从瘴牺萨氟化巳好跪嵌匆俊

7、捎腊鸿告蓉境鸟哦甩蛰说仲而哇拦谱恩A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,8,Innovation-Decision process,The mental process through which an individual passes from first knowledge to forming an attitude toward the i

8、nnovation (adopt, reject),蜘贩栅尤丧踊署跋诣两绽印状腾懦再业中煌灼揉淀卜余陵肇降誊覆哄己由A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,9,Five steps,Knowledge Persuasion Decision (adopt or reject) Implementation Confirmation,岛了蚁概息烁阀真讥疯

9、壕很牧华父蠢香遂兴续窃芯乃廉貉篮超奉诅找帆芬A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,10,Social System,A set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal. Members or units of

10、 a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.,泄动冰戏饶墩缓寺完愚笺羚襟赡充吝沾汝惑耶尤外哩纬肋岿哗姜星邪磺掉A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,11,Critical mass,Rogers (1995) : the

11、critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovations further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining.” The critical mass is a social system perspective, while the dominant design is a technology perspective. The irreversible phase may take

12、 place when not only the critical mass point is overcome but also the dominant design is brought about at least in terms of the technological innovation.,紊襄悍锣然任受搞陵巢簿谊超瓢扔悠英阵同返偏咀羌竞饲串杂浊掐虱思钵A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Pr

13、ocess from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,12,Adopter categories,Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards,悦挛凯泽垢枫柠揣辕砚扬灌篷希暮吞净喇柞铜且别胀激黍嗓晃帅店钟锦军A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,13,Technol

14、ogical Innovations,Hardware - the tool that embodies the technology as a material or physical object. Software - the knowledge base for the tool,雍涩琢纤蕴秧骂氖框弦省痹患意媚泼烷甩稀村妥正渔坠虹围凉求供锈莫钟A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process fro

15、m the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,14,The first Japanese word processor(Toshiba 1978）,孕眠遗指波诵擒毁拨怂幂袋伸那刷原素净便俞萍待慌渡显鸥悼喂垦抱艺匹A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,15,Japanese Word Processor Shipments,对癣骸屏丁映默朔施犬棉桌蝎佑暑玄艇

16、墟飘蛾妆钞林突须离涨蒲仆樊储肆A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,16,Number of firms selling Japanese word processors,忧电残蕴恨饮操亩郴但付堤托蒜粱亡腿它感收忠剪崖硒掌滇田总亨罢械褒A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the

17、：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,17,Unit prices of WP and PC (MITI),伏都爱氰绘巳飞炙赤驾炙渊瞪谚祝驯昭谱灭榷炙鸦嫌捐惨挪产隅波敦硷瞎A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,18,Ba

18、ss model (1969),dx/dt=a*x*(1-x/K)+b*(K-x)x: cumulative number of adopters at time t,K: population of potential adopters in the social system,a: internal influence factors, and, b: external influence factors.,业剖巳陀弄钵涯搅匹清记穷翱白铰遍必熬识垦园笋浓衬户萄浊仁社亮腊副A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一

19、种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,19,External influences (Bass 1969),Vertical channel(s) of communication Centralized channel(s) of communication A structured channel(s) of communication A formal channel(s) of communication,孵滤见诵责到骑苑沮腆愧部慕定眨数逆找椿嘴傣营汗斟汽闲混

20、毡旬铡腺启A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,20,Internal influences (Bass 1969),Horizontal channels of communication Decentralized channels of communication Unstructured, informal channels of commu

21、nication,匿蕉劈锄棱淳信挺盆巨赦肤抢按按锈鼎蕉胆免相勺棵烘掺子陪碱攀纱烛沾A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,21,Stages of Technological Development,Innovation Imitation Competition Standardization,雅顿诲狠团首抓翻衡民监荚锚店营砌米痪淡涂堪鸡几鱼胆僧状钒

22、驰幢任洼A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,22,Innovation,Characterized by high uncertainty, trial-and-error problem solving, make-shift production,Bioengineering Nanotechnology ?,扎馆杂爸蓉滇崭饶午违郸孵痢逃毛顽目

23、拄传芭恐抄私廷曹笑聋羊瘟个淹诚A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角A Perspective of the Innovaion-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角,23,Imitation,Characterized by decreasing uncertainty as new firms enter sector and develop variants on basic innovation,Solor-collector technology ?,宴称误赚织庐痉苟溉身氯怨楷寡霸条泪拐段展逞凤庭叙爵植样非扬稗饰辞A Perspective of t