中国及国际海洋馆行业分析

1、,中国海洋馆行业研究china aquarium / oceanarium industry research study,中信产业投资基金(香港) for citic property investment fund (hong kong) consulting co. ltd. 艾奕康经济咨询 by aecom economics,中国海洋馆行业研究 china aquarium / oceanarium industry research study | 08日03月2013年 08/03/2013,disclaimer such projections/recommendations

2、are subject to many factors that are beyond the control of aecom; and aecom thus make no representations or warranties with respect to such projections/recommendations and disclaim any responsibility for the accuracy of any estimates, projections and recommendations. 本报告仅依据中信产业投资基金(香港)顾问有限公司中规定的特定目的

3、向中信产业投资基金提供。未经我方事先书面同意，本报告不得向客户的名称/在与 客户签订的协议中确定的文件接收人之外的其他方披露，且其他方不得引用或依赖本报告。中信产业投资基金之外的任何人如果收到本报告的复印件，未 经我方明确书面同意，不得依赖本报告，并且客户的名称不得为上述目的之外的其他目的依赖本报告。 this report is prepared for citicpe and is given for its sole benefit in relation to and pursuant to citicpe and may not be disclosed to, quoted to

4、or relied upon by any person other than citicpe without our prior written consent. no person (other than citicpe) into whose possession a copy of this report comes may rely on this report without our express written consent and citicpe may not rely on it for any purpose other than as described above

5、.,study contents,报告内容,国际与国内海洋馆市场的现状及摘要 introduction 6%是二级居民市场（超过一个小时车程） 6% of the secondary market (residents beyond 1 hour travel time); and 9%左右是游客市场（游客市场的渗透率范围差别较大，可高达35%） 9% of the tourism market (although the range of tourism penetration rates is considerable, and can reach as high as 35%,国际与国内

6、的主要海洋馆市场供应international aecom economics; association of zoos and aquariums,国内的水族馆市场规模及增长趋势概览domestic aquarium market size and growth outlook,3,全国水族馆的市场规模：游客人次及市场捕获率 aquarium market size: nation-wide visitation and penetration rates 以下的图表追踪了美国水族馆产业的发展历程，以此可以更好地理解未来中国水族馆市场的潜在发展轨迹和规模。同时，美国的主要水族馆的市场渗透率

7、可以为未来中国水族馆对城市人口的市场渗透率做参考。 the following charts track the growth in the american aquarium industry as a means of helping to understand the potential growth trajectory and the size of the future aquarium market in china. the penetration rate of major aquariums nation-wide as a % of total population in

8、 the usa can be used to illustrate the future potential for chinas aquariums to penetrate the total urban population nationwide. 以美国的经验来看，水族馆的市场渗透率在过去30年间呈现稳定增长的趋势，原因如下： 水族馆的数量在新的区域呈现稳定增长（从10-11个增长至25个）。这些新增水族馆距离大型水族馆有便捷的交通，并带来大量的市场份额。 收入和与休闲相关的花费的增长。 教育和“寓教于乐”的重要性被市场逐渐认可。 新建水族馆的大规模增长和扩建（主要的水族馆平均每年游

9、客量从过去700,000增长到目前1,000,000人次）。升级的水族馆规模可以引入更大更有吸 引力的物种，比如大型鲨鱼和鲸类，同时还能有潜力开展多样的表演和与动物互动的体验。 in the case of the usa, aquarium penetration has risen steadily over the past 30 years due to: a steady increase in the number of major aquariums (namely from around 10-11 major aquariums to around 25 major aqua

10、riums today) and in new geographies. this increase has brought a larger share of the population within convenient travel distance to large aquariums. growth in income and leisure-related spending generally; the growing importance of education and “edu-tainment” in the leisure industry; and the growi

11、ng scale of new aquariums and major expansions (from an average of less than 700,000 visitors per major aquarium to around 1,000,000 annual visitors today). this larger scale allows larger and more attractive special exhibits (such as large sharks and whales), as well as greater variety of shows and

12、 animal interaction experience potential. 考虑到中国水族馆的行业特性，以及以上提到的因素，一共有四点关键因素驱动水族馆行业的增长，这些原因会在以下的内容中分点呈现： with specific reference to the chinese attraction industry, in addition to the above-noted factors, there are four key major factors driving the growth of the industry, which will be discussed in

13、subsequent slides:,1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 -,1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (est.),美国主要水族馆的渗透率 major aquariums in usa: penetration rate (t

14、otal major aquarium visitation as % of total usa population),美国主要水族馆的每家水 族馆平均游客量 major aquariums in usa: average attendance per major aquarium,30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 -,1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

15、1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (est.),8% 6% 4% 2% 0%,10%,1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (est.),美国主要水族馆的整体游客 人次 major aquar

16、iums in usa: total visitors,标注：主要的大型水族馆每年至少有400,000的游客量 资料来源：consultecon inc.，aecom经济组，动物水族行业协会 note: major aquarium should have at least 400,000 attendees per year,sources: consultecon inc.; aecom economics; association of zoos and aquariums,大型水族馆的游客量在较长时间内 都保持持续的增长（复合年增长率 达到4%-5%） attendance at la

17、rge aquariums has risen steadily (cagr 4-5%) over the long term. (this is largely due to new aquariums opening and larger average size of facilities),大型水族馆的累积市场渗透率在三 十年间增长超过一倍，达到近10% aggregated penetration rate of large aquariums has more than doubled over 30 years, to nearly 10%.,大型水族馆每年吸纳更多的游客数 量，

18、平均达到每年1,000,000人次 large aquariums receive higher numbers of visitors per year. average is now over 1,000,000 per year. (the average major aquariums is increasingly larger on a gfa basis.),目前中国所处阶段 china current,国内的水族馆市场规模及增长趋势概览domestic aquarium market size and growth outlook,3,全国水族馆的市场规模：游客人次及市场捕获率

19、 aquarium market size: nation-wide visitation and penetration rates,2010年城市人口约67亿 2010 urban population: 670 million 2030年城市人口约87亿 2030 urban population: 870 million,在中国有30个大型水族馆/海洋馆 number of major aquariums / marine parks in china,中国主要水族馆/海洋馆达到年均36,000,000 客流量 total attendance at major china aquar

20、iums / marine parks,平均每个水族馆/海洋馆达到年均1,200,000客流量 average visitors per major aquarium / marine park,占据中国城市总人口的市场渗透率为5.2% penetration rate as % of national urban population,30,36 million,1.2 million,5.2%,中国海洋馆行业研究 china aquarium / oceanarium industry research study | page 30 页,(2010/2011 data latest av

21、ailable),资料来源：美国人口统计，aecom经济组水族馆数据 sources: population sourced from united nations; aquarium data sourced from aecom economics,国内的水族馆市场规模及增长趋势概览 domestic aquarium market size and growth outlook,3,全国水族馆的市场规模：游客人次及市场捕获率 aquarium market size: nation-wide visitation and penetration rates,如果到2030年，渗透率保持在

22、城市人口的5% （美国1988年的数据），中国主要的水族馆总 体游客量将会达到： if penetration rate remains at 5% of urban population (usa rate in 1988) by year 2030, total visitors to major aquariums in china:,2020年：41,000,0002020年：34个水族馆 2030年: 46,000,0002030年：38个水族馆 2020: 41 million2020: 34 aquariums 2030: 46 million2030: 38 aquariums

23、,8 到2030年，中国会有约8个支柱型的新型水 族馆/海洋馆 supportable major new aquariums / marine parks in china by 2030,如果到2030年，渗透率上升到城市人口的7% （美国1998年的数据），中国主要的水族馆总 体游客量将会达到： if penetration rate rises to 7% of the urban population (usa rate in 1998) by year 2030, total visitors to major aquariums in china:,2020年：48,000,00

24、02020年：34个水族馆 2030年: 63,000,0002030年：38个水族馆 2020: 48 million2020: 34 aquariums 2030: 63 million2030: 38 aquariums,22 到2030年，中国会有约22个支柱型的新型 水族馆/海洋馆 supportable major new aquariums / marine parks in china by 2030,如果到2030年，渗透率上升到城市人口的10% （美国2010年的数据），中国主要的水族馆总 体游客量将会达到： if penetration rate rises to 10%

25、 of the urban population (usa rate in 2010) by year 2030, total visitors to major aquariums in china:,2020年：58,000,0002020年：48个水族馆 2030年: 87,000,0002030年：72个水族馆 2020: 58 million2020: 48 aquariums 2030: 87 million2030: 72 aquariums,42 到2030年，中国会有约42个支柱型的新型 水族馆/海洋馆 supportable major new aquariums / ma

26、rine parks in china by 2030,标注：假设支柱性的主要水族馆会实现每年1,200,000的游客量 note: supportable major new aquariums assume average of 1,200,000 visitors per year.,国内的水族馆市场规模及增长趋势概览 domestic aquarium market size and growth outlook,3,全国水族馆的市场规模：游客人次及市场捕获率 aquarium market size: nation-wide visitation and penetration ra

27、tes,行业增长的关键驱动因素 key drivers of growth in the chinese attraction industry 以下四个因素会驱动主题娱乐行业的增长: as noted earlier, with specific reference to the chinese attraction industry, there are four major factors driving the growth of the industry: 国内经济增长 sustained economic growth in china 增长的中产阶级 growth of the

28、middle class 城市化进程 urbanization 旅游市场增长 domestic tourism growth,国内的水族馆市场规模及增长趋势概览domestic aquarium market size and growth outlook,3, 2009年至2011年，中国的实际国内生产总值的年度增长率分别约 为9.2%、10.4%及9.2%。2012年三月，中国政府公布2012年的实 际国内生产总值目标增长率为7.5%，而就2015年结束的五年计划 制定的平均实际国内生产总值目标增长率则为7%至8%。 from 2009 to 2011, chinas real gdp a

29、nnual growth rate was 9.2%, 10.4% and 9.2%, respectively. in 2012, the chinese government announced 2012 real gdp to a target growth rate of 7.5%, while the five-year plan will be ended in 2015, average annual real gdp target growth rate will be forecast to be around 7%-8% .,人均收入增长 income growth:, 随

30、着经济发展，人均国民收入也在稳定增长，并预测将持续保持 上升趋势。2012年，人均国民收入超过人民币38500元，并将在 2017年上升至63600元。其中，城市人口收入的增长将会最为显 著。 along with economic growth, per capita income growth has been steadily growing, and is forecast to continue to grow. in 2012, per capita income is estimated to amount to over 38,500 rmb per person, risin

31、g to over rmb 63,600 per person by 2017. the rise in income has been most pronounced in chinas urban population.,23,648,38,545,63,641,-,20,000,40,000,60,000,80,000,2010,20112012e 2013e 2014e 2015e,2016e,2017e,per capita income (rmb),人均国民总收入 per capita income,行业增长的关键驱动因素: 1.国内经济增长 key drivers of grow

32、th: 1. sustained economic growth in china 经济增长 economic growth:,12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%,2008,2009,2010,20112012e 2013e 2014e 2015e,2016e,2017e,china annual gdp growth,国民生产增长率 domestic gdp growth,20082009 资料来源：2012年imf统计报告,国内的水族馆市场规模及增长趋势概览domestic aquarium market size and growth outlook,3,行业增长的关键驱动因素

33、: 2. 增长的中产阶级 key drivers of growth: 2. growth of the middle class 日益增长的中产阶级新贵们对新的旅游体验的向往会促使产生相当 大的对亚洲以及中国休闲文化景点的市场需求。目前，我们预测约6 亿国人已经可以支付起中等价格的主题景点消费。大部分潜在的消 费者生活在城市（2010年，中国50%的人口为城镇人口）。 the growing middle class and their aspirations for new travel and new experiences will drive a considerable deman

34、d for leisure and cultural attractions in china and throughout asia. currently we estimate that around 600 million chinese are able to afford a visit to a modestly- priced themed attraction. most of these potential customers are living in cities (in 2010, 50% of china population were classified as u

35、rban). 未来，新中产阶级的增长会主要来自于更小的城镇和乡村。假设收 入保持现有的增长，预计2020年中国中产阶级的数量将超过10亿人， 约是美国中产阶级以上人口的3倍。 in the future, new middle-class growth will largely come from the smaller towns and countryside. assuming that income growth continues in-line with recent trends, as early as 2020 the number of chinese middle-cla

36、ss could reach over a billion people (or roughly three times the usas population of middle class and above.),资料来源：2012年 aecom economics,国内的水族馆市场规模及增长趋势概览domestic aquarium market size and growth outlook,3,行业增长的关键驱动因素: 3.城市化进程 key drivers of growth: 3. urbanization 大中华区主题公园的第三个驱动因素是城市化进程的发展和融入更多大型 综合商

37、业、度假、社区发展内的主题娱乐项目的开发。 the third driver of the themed entertainment industrys prospects in greater china is sustained urbanization and the development of themed entertainment as part of larger and integrated commercial, resort, and community developments. 去年，中国达到了城市人口占总人口的50%的里程碑。中国超过160个城市 拥有百万人口，这个

38、数字预计在2020年将达到220个。 last year, china reached a milestone in urban development when 50% of the population was designated as urban residents. currently there are some 160 cities in china with a population above 1 million, and this number is expected to rise to 220 cities by 2020. 当地政府殷切地希望提高城市威望和人民生活质量

39、水平，娱乐、文化、休 闲设施的增加被视为一个城市的重要组成部分，但是目前却缺乏兼有丰富 内容和高品质的项目。 local governments are eager to improve the quality of life and prestige of their cities and the addition of further entertainment, culture, and recreational facilities is seen as an important element for their cities, but which is currently ofte

40、n lacking in quality and abundance.,国内的水族馆市场规模及增长趋势概览domestic aquarium market size and growth outlook,3,行业增长的关键驱动因素: 4. 国内旅游市场增长 key drivers of growth: 4. domestic tourism growth 主题娱乐行业的第四个驱动因素是国内旅游。中国游客一般被认为 是活跃型的游客，可望体验新的旅游景点、参与新的购物和娱乐体 验。 the fourth driver of the themed entertainment industry is

41、domestic tourism. chinese tourists can generally be considered “active” tourists looking to experience new attractions, shopping and entertainment experiences. 2010年，中国超越美国成为最大的国内旅游市场，达到21亿旅游人 次/年，也就是说收入合格的人群平均每人每年出游3.5次。未来国内 游客市场的增长源于收入合格人群的增加和旅行次数的频繁度提高。 in 2010, china surpassed the usa in number

42、of domestic person-trips at 2.1 billion or about 3.5 trips per income-qualified person. the outlook is for significant increases in domestic tourism as both the number of income-qualified population increases and the number of trips taken per capita increases.,这种复合增长效应不仅影响一般旅游市场，也同样对主题娱乐设施 的需求产生影响。

43、this compounding growth is not only impacting tourism in general, but in particular the demand for themed entertainment facilities.,资料来源：2012年 aecom economics,国内的水族馆市场规模及增长趋势概览domestic aquarium market size and growth outlook,3,从2004年至2010年的人均旅游支出年复合增长率达到5.76%，在 2011年人均旅游支出到633元，未来2017年亦预测达到885元。 the

44、 compound annual growth rate of tourism expenditure per capita from 2004 to 2010 grew at 5.76%, and in 2011, the per capita tourist expenditure is at 633 yuan and in 2017, it is forecasted to be 885 yuan.,511,633,885,-,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,900,1,000,2017e,per capita tourism expenditure (r

45、mb),人均旅游支出 per capita tourism expenditure,20082009201020112012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 资料来源：2012年 aecom economics 及 wto统计报告,行业增长的关键驱动因素: 4. 国内旅游市场增长 key drivers of growth: 4. domestic tourism growth 整体而言，与交通和住宿的开支相比，中国游客花费更多的比例 于娱乐、餐饮和零售。 overall, chinese travelers spend more on entertainment, dini

46、ng and retail than they do on accommodations and transportation. a visit to a theme park, cultural center or live performance show is a regular part of virtually any tour itinerary.,国内的水族馆市场规模及增长趋势概览domestic aquarium market size and growth outlook,3,行业增长的关键驱动因素: 摘要 key drivers of growth in the chine

47、se attraction industry: summary 受到来自经济和社会的双重驱动，主题公园参观人数的前景非常 乐观。2010年，aecom曾估计中国主题公园的总参观人次约为 6,500万人次。到2011年，随着几个大型公园的开幕和部分乐园 的扩建，估计客流量增长至8,400万人次。 as a result of the economic and social drivers mentioned above, the outlook for theme park visitation is very strong. in 2010, aecom estimates the total

48、 number of theme parks visits in china was about 65 million. by 2011 with the opening of several parks and major expansion at others, visitation is expected to increase to 84 million visits. 预计到2020年，大中华区总接待人数将会等同于现在的美国主题 公园市场，即2.21亿人次。到2030年，随着中国特别是城镇中产 阶层数量的持续增长，预计主题公园的客流量几乎翻一番，达到 4.21亿人次。 looking

49、 forward, we estimate that greater chinas total theme park visitation by 2020 will match the us current market size of 221 million visits. as the chinese middle-class market, particularly in rural cities, continues to increase, the number of visits is expected to nearly double by 2030 to 421 million

50、 visits.,资料来源：2012年 aecom economics,国内的水族馆市场规模及增长趋势概览domestic aquarium market size and growth outlook,3,行业基准及水族馆/海洋馆的重要营运准则industry benchmarks and key operational parameters of major aquariums,4,第四部分 内容 section 4 contents: 主要行业最佳实践 key industry best practices 主要成功因素 key industry success factors 主要行业

51、进入壁垒 barriers to entry in the industry d.经营模式 business model types: public, non-profit, commercial for-profit, etc. 客流驱动因素 attendance drivers 收入参数 revenue sources admission and pricing f drive time delineations by aecom economics,北京水族馆市场分析 aquarium market analysis in beijing,5,延庆县 yanqing,怀柔区 huairo

52、u,密云县 miyun,平谷区 pinggu,顺义区 shunyi,通州区 tongzhou,大兴区 daxing,房山区 fangshan,门头沟区 mentougou,昌平区 changping,海淀区 haidan,朝阳区 chaoyang,丰台区 fengtai,石景山区 shijingshan,东城区,dongcheng,西城区 xicheng,10,504,000 北京海洋馆总合可利用居民市场 beijing aquarium total resident market,source: population figures sourced from beijing yearbook

53、; drive time delineations and population projections by aecom economics,3,073,000 一级居民市场 (半小时交通长途内) primary market (within 30 minutes drive),5,940,000 二级居民市场 (1小时交通长途内) secondary market (within 1 hour drive),1,491,000 三级居民市场 (1小时多交通长途) tertiary market (over 1 hour drive),可利用居民市场分析: 2011 analysis of

54、available resident markets: 2011 (urban residents only),北京水族馆市场分析 aquarium market analysis in beijing,5,延庆县 yanqing,怀柔区 huairou,密云县 miyun,平谷区 pinggu,顺义区 shunyi,通州区 tongzhou,大兴区 daxing,房山区 fangshan,门头沟区 mentougou,昌平区 changping,海淀区 haidan,朝阳区 chaoyang,丰台区 fengtai,石景山区 shijingshan,东城区,dongcheng,西城区 xic

55、heng,11,793,000 北京海洋馆总合可利用居民市场 beijing aquarium total resident market,source: population figures sourced from beijing yearbook; drive time delineations and population projections by aecom economics,3,329,000 一级居民市场 (半小时交通长途内) primary market (within 30 minutes drive),6,730,000 二级居民市场 (1小时交通长途内) secon

56、dary market (within 1 hour drive),1,734,000 三级居民市场 (1小时多交通长途) tertiary market (over 1 hour drive),可利用居民市场分析: 2016 analysis of available resident markets: 2016 (urban residents only),北京水族馆市场分析 aquarium market analysis in beijing,5,延庆县 yanqing,怀柔区 huairou,密云县 miyun,平谷区 pinggu,顺义区 shunyi,通州区 tongzhou,大

57、兴区 daxing,房山区 fangshan,门头沟区 mentougou,昌平区 changping,海淀区 haidan,朝阳区 chaoyang,丰台区 fengtai,石景山区 shijingshan,东城区,dongcheng,西城区 xicheng,13,237,000 北京海洋馆总合可利用居民市场 beijing aquarium total resident market,source: population figures sourced from beijing yearbook; drive time delineations and population project

58、ions by aecom economics,3,604,000 一级居民市场 (半小时交通长途内) primary market (within 30 minutes drive),7,620,000 二级居民市场 (1小时交通长途内) secondary market (within 1 hour drive),2,013,000 三级居民市场 (1小时多交通长途) tertiary market (over 1 hour drive),可利用居民市场分析: 2021 analysis of available resident markets: 2021 (urban residents only),北京水族馆市场分析 aquarium market analysis in beijing,5,可利用居民市场分析: 2006-2021 available resident markets: 2006-2021 summ