RiskAnalysisandManagement风险分析与管理

1、1,Chapter 19精简版 (Week 13 )Risk Analysis and Management,Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 13,2,Quick Review,“Slow-start, multiplicative growth”TCP Congestion control principle Last week we discussed metrics of software project Two types of metrics: size-oriented and function point based estima

2、tion. Due Now,Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7,“学而时(练)习之, 不亦悦乎?”孔子,3,Your Role in the Project,Technically Liberian (information collection) Clerk (documentation) UIF designer Algorithm and data structure (specialist) Database (specialist) Project Manager (planning, scheduling etc.) Tester

3、Risk manager (analyzer, monitor) ,Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7,4,Risk,Robert CharetteCHA89 Risk concerns future happenings. (Earthquake) Risk involves change (of mind, opinion, actions, or places) Risk involves choice, uncertainty Q: Can we create better situations of tomorrow by chang

4、ing our actions today? “ Paradoxically, like death and taxes, risk is one of the few certainties of life.”,Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7,5,Quick Look,What is it? A series of steps to understand and manage uncertainty. Who does it? Everyone involved Why is it important? Lots of things ca

5、n go wrong and often do. “Be prepared”. What are the steps? Identify, Analyze and Manage (RMMM) What is the work product? A RMMM plan or RIS How do I ensure that Ive done it right? Revisited as go,Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7,6,Risk Strategies,Reactive or fire fighting mode. Act after

6、crisis happens. Proactive : begins long before technical work is initiated. Reactive or Proactive? “是主动积极还是被动去做一件事,其结果是截然不同的.” Case 1: Playing basketball, NBA 2008 final Case 2: Expectation Vs Proactive, Reactive,Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7,7,Software Risks,Two Characteristics: Uncert

7、ainty, Loss Different Categories Project risks (budget, schedule, resource etc.; complexity, size and uncertain structure) Technical risks (design, implement, interface etc), problem is harder than thought to be. Business risks (Market, strategic, sales, management, budget) Known, predictable, unpre

8、dictable by Charette CHA89,Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7,8,Risk Identification,A systematic attempt to specify threats to the project plan. Risk item checklist (generic and product-specific) Project size (PS) Business impact (BU) Customer characteristic (CU). Process definition (PD) Dev

9、elopment environment (DE) Technology to built (TE) Staff size and experience (SE),Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7,9,Assessing Overall Risk,Tian Wenhong,Software Engineering, Week 7,Negative answers- RMMM,10,Risk Impact Assessment Table,Tian Wenhong,Software Engineering, Week 7,11,Risk Pro

10、jection,attempt to rate each risk in two ways: (1) the probability that the risk is real and (2) the consequences of problems occur. Risk Projection Activities (by all members) 1. Establish a scale that reflects the probability 2. Delineate the consequence of the risk 3. Estimate the impact of the r

11、isk on the project 4. Note overall accuracy of the risk projection,Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7,12,Risk Estimation-Sample Risk Table,Tian Wenhong,Software Engineering, Week 7,13,Risk and Management Concern,Tian Wenhong,Software Engineering, Week 7,Cutoff: areas within the range of 0.7,

12、1,14,Risk Assessment,Examine the level of performance degradation, cost overrun, support difficulty, or schedule slippage (or any combination),Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7,15,Risk Exposure,Tian Wenhong,Software Engineering, Week 7,P is probability, C is cost,16,Risk Refinement,refine t

13、he risk into a set of more detailed risks, easier to mitigate, monitor and manage. Condition-transition-consequence (CTC) or IF-THEN format Given that then there is concern that Subcondtion1: Certain reusable components were developed by a third party with no knowledge of internal design standards.

14、Sub2: The design standard for component interfaces has not been solidified and may not conform to certain existing reusable components. Sub3: Certain reusable components have been implemented in a language that is not supported on that target environment.,Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7,1

15、7,RMMM plan,Risk Mitigation, Monitoring and Management for example, Mitigating people turnover Determine causes of turnover Once project starts, ensure continuity when people leave Widely disperse information about each development activity Documents are developed in a timely manner Conduct peer rev

16、iew of all work (at least two persons “up to speed” Assign a backup staff member for every critical technologist. Monitoring General attitude of team members based on project pressures The degree to which the team has jelled Interpersonal relationships among team members Potential problems with comp

17、ensation and benefits The availability of jobs within the company and outside it.,Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7,18,Risk Information Sheet (RIS),Tian Wenhong,Software Engineering, Week 7,Cutoff: areas within the range of 0.7,1,19,Quick Review,“知己知彼,百战不怠.” “If you know yourself and the en

18、emy, you need not fear the results of a hundred battles”. Who is the enemy of software project manager? R Most project managers do it informally and superficially if they do it at all. RMMM pays itself back in many ways (track and control, confidence etc).,Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7,

19、20,Exercise#1,30 reusable software components were planned, only 60 percent can be used. Based on historical data, 3 out of 5 components may be not applicable. The average component is 100 LOC and each LOC is about $15.00. Q: Compute risk exposure in this case. Q2: Make a risk table with RM3 for your project,Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7,21,Exercise#2 (Individual),Assume there are N machines available for students use based on the scheduling policy: each student sends an request q_r, s_r,e_r, n_r where q_r is the request time, s_r is the start time, e_r end time, n_r is the numb