利率 金融课程 双语.ppt

1、Chapter 5The Behavior of Interest Rates,Preview,Determinants of assets demand Supply and demand in the bond market Changes in equilibrium interest rates Supply and demand in the market for money: Changes in equilibrium interest rates in the Liquidity Preference Framework,5.1 Determinants of Asset De

2、mand,Whether to buy and hold one asset rather than another, an individual must consider the following factors: 1.Wealth 2.Expected return 3.Risk The degree of uncertainty 4.Liquidity - The ease and speed,5.1.1 Wealth The total resources owned by the individual, including all assets.,The effect of ch

3、anges in wealth on the quantity demanded of an asset can be summarized as follows: holding everything else constant, an increase in wealth raises the quantity demanded of an asset.,5.1.2 Expected return The return expected over the next period on one asset relative to alternative assets.,An increase

4、 in an assets expected return relative to that of an alternative asset, holding everything else unchanged, raises the quantity demanded of the asset.,5.1.3 Risk The degree of uncertainty associated with the return on one asset relative to alternative assets.,1.in terms of their attitudes towards ris

5、k，people can be classified as two types of person -the risk-averse person and the risk preferred or risk lover. 2.Because most people are risk-averse, hence, holding everything else constant, if an assets risk rises relative to that of alternative assets, its quantity demanded will fall.,5.1.4 Liqui

6、dity - The ease and speed with which an asset can be turned into cash relative to alternative assets.,(class exercise) Rank the following assets from most liquid to least liquid: （A）house；（B）cash;（C）treasury bond;（D）stock. The more liquid an asset is relative to alternative assets, holding everythin

7、g else unchanged, the more desirable it is, and the greater will be the quantity demanded.,5.1.5 The Theory of Asset Demand,5.1.6 Conclusion:,1.The quantity demanded of an asset is positively related to wealth. 2.The quantity demanded of an asset is positively related to its expected return relative

8、 to alternative assets. 3.The quantity demanded of an asset is negatively related to the risk of its returns relative to alternative assets. 4.The quantity demanded of an asset is positively related to its liquidity relative to alternative assets.,5.2 Supply and Demand in the Bond Market,One reason

9、for bond market so important is that its where the interest rates are determined. So we are about to look into the bond market and obtain a bond demand curve as our first step of analysis. This bond demand curve presents us a picture of the relationship between the quantity demanded and the price wh

10、en all other economic variables remain unchanged.,5.2.1 Bond Demand Curve,Suppose that there is a one year discount bond which make no coupon payment but pays the owner its face value of $1000 when it matures. If the holding period is one year, and it sells for $950 Then, we get point A,Deviation of

11、 bond curve,i = interest rate = yield to maturity RETe = expected return F = face value of the discount bond P = initial purchase price of the discount bond,It shows that the interest rate corresponds to any change in bond price. If the bond sells for $950, the interest rate and RETe is:,5.2.2 Bond

12、supply curveIt shows the relationship between the quantity supplied and the price when all other economic variables are held constant.,5.2.3 Market equilibrium,Market equilibrium tells that at point c, the amount that people are willing to buy (demand) equals the amount that people are willing to se

13、ll (supply) , or Bd = Bs.,Supply and Demand Analysis of the Bond Market,5.2.4 Loanable funds framework,The concept of the bond market that we have developed has another interpretation with a different terminology-loanable funds which is couched in terms of the supply and demand for loanable funds us

14、ed by some economists.,（Diagram A）,（Diagram B）,Question:Compare diagram A and diagram B and draw some pieces of information about them?,The supply of bonds can be reinterpreted as the demand for loanable funds, while the demand for bonds can be reidentified as the supply of loanable funds.,5.3 Chang

15、es in equilibrium interest rates,5.3.1 Shifts in the Demand for Bonds,1.Factors that Shift the Bond Demand Curve,2.Table 2 Factors that shift the Demand curve for Bonds,5.3.2 Shifts in the supply of money,1. Factors affect the bond supply: （1）Expected profitability of investment opportunities （2）Exp

16、ected inflation （3）Government activities,2.Table 3 Factors that shift the Supply for Bonds,5.3.3 Changes in Expected Inflation 1.The Fisher Effect,2.Conclusion,When expected inflation rises, interest rates will rise. This result has been named Fisher Effect because he first pointed out the relations

17、hip of expected inflation to interest rates.,3.Evidence on the FIsher Effect in the United States,5.3.4 Business cycle expansion1.Picture :Business cycle expansion,2.In a business cycle expansion, the amounts of goods and services being produced in the economy rise, so national income increases. For

18、 this reason, businesses will be more willing to borrow, Hence at a given bond price and interest rate, the quantity of bonds that firms want to sell will increase. Correspondingly, the theory of asset demand tells us that the demand for bonds will rise as well.,3.Conclusion: interest rate rises during business cycle expansions and falls in recessions.,5.4 Relation of Liquidity Preference Framework to Loanable Funds,5.4.1Keyness Major Assumption,1.Equating supply and demand for bonds as in loanable funds framewor