贵金属投资技术分析英文版(48).ppt

1、Materials,Irene Lipin Ryan Mayes Mike Longo,sector analysis,Overview,Sector & Business Analysis Economic Analysis Financial Analysis Recommendations Q&A,Financial Analysis,Sector & Business Analysis,Sector Composition,Containers and Packaging Metal, Plastic, Cardboard, and Glass Containers Paper Pac

2、kaging Forestry and Paper Products Timber, Related Wood Products All Grades of Paper Construction Materials Sand Clay Gypsum Aggregates,Chemicals Commodity Chemicals Diversified Chemicals Specialty Chemicals Industrial Gasses Fertilizers Metals and Mining Manufacturing of Aluminum Mining/Extracting

3、of Gold & Silver Steel Other Precious Metals and Materials,S&P500 & SIM Sector Weights,as of 1/31/2010,Major Companies,Industry and Business Cycle,Mature Sector Highly Cyclical Sensitive to Fluctuations in the Business Cycle Relies on Strong Economy Sensitive to Supply / Demand Fluctuations Prices o

4、f Raw Materials Largely Demand Driven Growth through Acquisition Growth through R&D Exposed to Wide Array of Industries High Barriers to Entry Threat of New Competition is Low High Capital / Fixed Costs Increased Environmental Regulation,No New Buyers Repeat Purchase Can get Boring Fewer BIG players

5、,Economic Analysis,Materials versus S&P 500,10 Yr Performance,Recent Key Economic Drivers,Robust demand from emerging markets Chinese economy Sustained demand from developed markets United States, European Union Spring-time homebuilding Weak Dollar Upward price pressure on commodities / raw material

6、s Cheapens American exports,Now, however,Tightening Chinese monetary authority Unfolding European debt crisis Strengthening dollar/Weakening Euro Downward price pressure on commodities / raw materials Raises prices of American exports,Housing Starts vs. Sector Performance,Correlation Coefficient (R)

7、 = - .22,Commodities vs. Sector Performance,Correlation Coefficient (R) = .67,$ Value vs. Sector Performance,Correlation Coefficient (R) = .79,Financial Analysis,Revenue Growth Materials vs. S&P,Materials,S&P 500,Average increase 1.7%,Average increase 3.4%,EBITDA Growth Materials vs. S&P,Materials,S

8、&P 500,% of sales,% of sales,Absolute Valuation: Price / Forward Earnings,17.1x,16.7x,Relative Valuation: Forward P/E,1.2x,1.0 x,Absolute Valuation: Price / Book,2.7x,2.5x,Relative Valuation: Dividend Yield,0.9x, 2.0%,1.2x,Technical Valuation: Moving Avgs.,Recommendation,Long-term outlook: Bullish,M

9、aterials Sector responds well to economic recovery Impending inflation will “re-devalue” the dollar High growth potential in emerging markets and chemical agriculture segments,Short-term outlook: Bearish,Tightening Chinese monetary policy Slower bank lending Deutsche Bank mid-March rate hike Recent rally in the Dollar EU crisis: may continue? Tumbling commodities (fewer financial buyers) Weak confidence, modest industrial spending outl