Under the influence of the financial crisis in Anhui Province export structure adjustment毕业论文.doc

金融危机影响下安徽出口产品结构调整under the influence of the financial crisis in anhui province export structure adjustment摘 要近年来，安徽省的外贸出口得到了飞速发展 ，但面对全球性的金融危机，安徽的外贸出口结构应有所调整，以适应变化莫测的国际市场并抵挡住金融危机对安徽对外贸易利益的冲击。文章根据当前的国内外贸易环境的变化，对安徽出口的比较优势进行了研究，发现劳动密集型产品强势依存，资本和技术密集型产品出口正逐步树立优势。运用比较优势理论与兄弟省市和世界其他地区出口产品结构相对比，提出了调整和优化安徽出口产品结构的措施和路径。本文根据当前的经济形式结合安徽的实际情况制订了安徽出口产品结构的发展方向以及目标，并对安徽出口产品结构如何优化如何达到预期目标进行了对策研究。关键词：金融危机；出口产品结构；优化；策略abstractin recent years, ningbos exports have been developing rapidly, but the face of global financial crisis, ningbos foreign trade and export structure should be adjusted to adapt to changing international market and to resist the financial crisis on foreign trade in ningbo the impact of interest. the article based on the current domestic and international trade environment, exports of ningbo city, the comparative advantages of an empirical study, found a strong interdependence of labor-intensive products, capital and technology-intensive exports are gradually establish a comparative advantage. mainly through the theory of comparative advantage, as well as with fraternal provinces and municipalities and other parts of the world compare the structure of export products, made the adjustment and optimization of the structure of export products in ningbo city of measures and the path. this article forms the basis of the current economic integration of the actual situation in the development of ningbo, ningbo export product structure as well as the direction of development objectives and the structure of export products, ningbo, how to optimize how to achieve the desired goal of countermeasures.keywords: financial crisis; export product structure; optimization; strategyiv 目 录1金融危机的理论阐述11.1金融危机的概念理解11.2 2008年金融危机的成因分析21.2.1金融衍生品对金融危机的传导作用21.2.2金融自由化和经济全球化32宁波出口产品结构调整的背景分析42.1国际环境分析42.1.1全球性金融危机降低经济增长速度42.1.2新经济增长模式迅速崛起52.1.3经济全球化加快，国际分工日益明显52.2国内环境分析52.2.1出口企业面临的外部困境52.2.2 出口企业面临的内部困境63安徽出口产品结构现状分析63.1安徽出口产品结构近年来的现状总结63.1.1由初级产品向工业制成品的结构转变73.1.2机电、高新技术产品出口增加73.1.3资本与知识密集型产品比重不断上升73.2金融危机影响下的安徽出口产品结构存在的问题83.2.1.工业制成品出口结构不合理83.2.2高科技产品出口结构单一83.2.3高新技术产品出口增长幅度较小 94金融危机背景下安徽出口产品结构调整的对策分析94.1安徽出口产品结构调整的政策性措施94.1.1现行贸易政策对安徽出口贸易的作用94.1.2优化出口贸易环境的具体措施分析94.2优化宁波出口产品结构的其他措施104.2.1高科技人才的培养104.2.2鼓励高校与企业结合的合作104.2.3积极参与国际知识产权制度建设114.2.4促进科研企业融资投资体系的完善11参考文献12致 谢13附录1：文献综述14附录2：外文文献译文20附录3：外文文献原文23by the united states subprime mortgage crisis of the global financial crisis intensified and has begun to have a serious impact on the real economy in the world. foreign trade export product structure under the influence of the financial crisis must be to make adjustments, to continue to seek foothold in foreign trade. chinas foreign trade in the past, irrational product structure defects on the export, export products, labour-intensive products is much larger than the proportion of technology-intensive products and the proportion of capital-intensive products. makes ningbo the study in response to this by the united states subprime mortgage crisis and when the global financial crisis has caused more specific policies and measures, and make theoretical support to speed up the export product structure adjustment. theoretical study on combination of parties, as well as related data analysis, explore the export product structure of foreign trade and economic development interlinkages. and ningbo foreign trade enterprises in the face of the response to the financial crisis and its results analysis of relationship between structure and international competitiveness of exports.1.1 financial crisis of understandingthe deep causes of financial crisis is neoliberal capitalism. neo-liberal theorists claim that if there is no control of the state, financial markets will be more efficient, people can put limited resources into the areas with the highest rate of return. but they ignore the important fact that there was no control of the market is prone to crisis. and neo-liberalism under the conditions of financial crisis will become more serious. this has been proved by the history. united states in the 19th century practices a more liberal market economy, then about every 10 years or so there is a very serious financial crisis. under the conditions of neo-liberalism, with capitals in the game, the workers and trade unions in a vulnerable position, gap widening, issues arising from it is who is going to buy increasing output? result, payroll or stagnant or declining levels of income of the family, they had to put before the house as collateral for borrowing in order to maintain standard of living. this debt has become too high and cannot be sustained, salaried family find they have been difficult to rely on their income for normal borrowing, debt has also been unable to repay before, so the outbreak of the crisis. (david. coates, 2008) in the course of history in the development of market economy, the financial crisis is not a new phenomenon. it can generally be divided into the banking crisis, the crisis in asset markets, currency crises, external debt crisis (balance of payment crisis) and systemic crises. mainly for the banking sector of the financial crisis in the traditional sense of crisis, that is, from the bank debit crisis (runs on depositors or creditors); or from the credit crisis of (deteriorating asset quality, bad assets rapid rise, sharp decline in the revenue), causing a large number of financial institutions operating difficulties until the close down and restructure. (wang hongmiao, 2008)based on the concept given by the parties, refers to a region or country of the financial crisis in the financial markets in a period of violent unrest and confusion of the situation occurs, and the negative impact on the economy in all fields. combined with the causes of the financial crisis, can be summed up as the united states caused by the subprime mortgage crisis caused by the collapse of many banks have banking crisis, as a result of united states government heavily in salvation plan may combine monetary and external debt crises caused by systemic financial crisis.1.2 analysis of the causes of financial crisis in 2008.risks of financial crisis, origins, which is on the united states subprime mortgage crisis caused by the real estate bubble burst. as the united states first in industry, real estate and other industries associated with a high degree. dotcom and 911 after the terrorist attacks, in order to stimulate economic growth, 13 times in a row of the federal reserve cut interest rates greatly stimulated the united states development of real estate industry, has also led to united states housing market bubble. rapid development of the secondary mortgage market, does not have the ability to repay loans also get a housing loan, storing up potential for crisis.1.2.1 conduction effect of financial derivatives on financial crisisunited states subprime mortgage bonds of the derivative nature of price and earnings volatility. in the subprime mortgage crisis in the financial product can disperse subprime risk to a certain extent, but there is a structural defect. first, when the underlying asset credit risk many derivative security will result in a chain reaction. second, financial products highly personalized, investors rely on complex management and derivative financial instruments such as credit swaps to hedge credit risk, market difficult for this price. in addition, hedge funds, banks and other organizations to use highly leveraged financing, magnify risk. as financial derivatives, more and more financial mania and its fundamental feature of the service in the manufacturing and farther, and this excessive expansion ultimately a direct threat to the financial and credit itself after changes in our external environment, the subprime mortgage market, turnover is still increasing at about 30%, until a growing number of borrower defaults, accumulated finally broke out of the crisis. people of the current outbreak of the united states due to the financial crisis of the real estate bubble burst, but the united states fall in real estate market has more than 20% should be enough to knock bear stearns, lehman, aig, as well as two houses and other such financial giants. this excessive expansion of financial derivatives is undoubtedly played an instrumental role, played a giant killer role. galaxy securities said zuo xiaolei, chief economist, subprime credit products to a number of groups of low credit or no credit, and many more preferential terms of credit risk is attached, forming a massive credit bubble. from the credit bubble-product money bubble-market value price bubbles bubbles through derivative bubbles form a long chain. complex and long sale chain of financial derivatives, investors do not see the essence and the causes of the mortgage loan. and abusing financial derivatives elongate the trading chain, contributed to the speculation. from 2002 to 2007, the united states real estate market speculation seriously, house prices rose at an astonishing pace, real estate bubble in the market. in march of this year, before the feds extraordinary contribution of us $ 30 billion rescue of the never under its supervision of an investment bank (bear stearns). as the federal reserve worry that, if it does not hand help from bear stearns bankruptcy, could result in united states and even the collapse of the global financial system. the end result is, as the collapse of lehman brothers, united states subprime mortgage crisis began to spread throughout the world to form the global financial crisis.1.2.2 financial liberalization and economic globalizationsavings for financial institutions in social and economic needs of enterprise it-oriented and sector plays a very important role, laying a foundation for rapid development of modern economies. however, without proper supervision, very easily lead to inherent instability of the financial system crisis. it is in many financial crises in the early 20th century (particularly the great depression of 1929) get a lesson in, united states government developed a strict supervision over the financial system of law. but the neo-liberal view, is necessarily inefficient government regulation, only the free running of financial markets, funds can be configured to the most efficient place to improve the efficiency of financial markets. at the same time, new liberalism also believes that, with automatic error correction ability of financial markets, if the government adopted a laissez-faire policy, it will not be a serious crisis. it was under the influence of this theory, united states implemented a series of financial liberalization policies, the result is: opaque financial markets there was little supervision, information, fraud was rife. due to the trend of economic globalization, states of synchronization of economic fluctuations and financial volatility of globalization become a booster of the financial crisis the international transmission, changes in policy and economic indicators of a country, often resulting in financial virus spread, so that a countrys or regions financial crisis of rapid transmission of the global financial crisis. when the centre after the countrys crisis, some neighbouring countries for their own interests alone gave up the countrys exchange rate parity with the centre, produced a local infection, relatively large rate of depreciation. secondly there is linkage effects of industry. linkage effects of industry as a separate transmission mechanisms, through the acceleration of stock principle and structural shocks work, pointed out that key issues of the financial crisis is not a bank, but in the enterprise. again there are international debt. creditors in debt after the strong impact of the crisis, from those with debtors in countries with similar economic development flight of capital, risk-averse, to more countries involved into the crisis. final policy approach. also known as the monsoon effect on economic impact of a state policy adjustments may be made by force have been in close contact with the states adopted a similar policy, so that the crisis is very likely in the transfers between the two countries. 2 background analysis of the export product structure adjustment in anhui province2.1 international political relation 2.1.1 global financial crisis reduced economic growthsyndrome of global financial crisis hit the world, and will continue a certain amount of time. shock received by countries vary, but there is no doubt the world needed to face the disastrous problems. for the united states, the situation is even more serious, because of their own domestic series of chain reactions caused by the subprime mortgage crisis has not had time to digest, and the heels of the uncertainties in the international situation as a whole is united statess continuing economic decline. subprime mortgage crisis has badly hit united states consumer confidence. united states consumer confidence per cent in january 2007, since then had a free fall. per cent in september 2007, per cent in october, in february 2008 to 76, march further to 64.5 per cent. united states consumer confidence has been reduced to the lowest point since 1982, resulting in market sales for march 2008 planer market lows of 13 years. banks tightening due to loss, strictly control the credit. as we all know, united states consumer in need to a large extent credit support, due to the subprime mortgage crisis, consumer credit is greater impact. banks to strictly control the credit which seriously affected the united states importers of capital turnover. these two factors on the market and the import and export of goods has had a serious impact. for china, as in the case of different optimistic. united states is the foreign trade of chinas major trading partners, united states of course spread to chinas industries. the financial crisis on the united states imports caused a great deal of difficulty. chinese exports to the us declined sharply beginning in august 2007, eventually make the 2007 increase in chinese exports to the united states fall to lowest since 2002. and in august 2007 was the subprime crisis and accelerate rmb appreciation points in time. you can see, the subprime crisis and accelerate the dual effect of the appreciation of the renminbi on chinese exports to the united states has played a moderating role. chinas statistics show that, in the growth of china exports to the united states obviously slow down at the same time, because of united states exports to china are not affected by the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, 2007 united states exports to china continued to grow at high speed. according to united states customs statistics, 2007 united states exports to china grew 18.1%, higher than the growth in chinese exports to the us 11.7% increased. according to chinese statistics, in 2008-february, chinese exports to the us downturn on the one hand, on the other, is the united states exports to china of high growth, where january growth, per cent from february. according to us statistics, in january 2008, the united states exports to china grew 34%, 24.7%,l-2 february growth month together, united states exports to china increased 29.28%.2.1.2 new economic growth mode quickly rise to service trade and technology trade for features of new economic growth mode in economic development in the of role increasingly important, knowledge for foundation, and to innovation for core of new economic rapid development, on world economic trade produced major effect, its main performance for: (1) international trade structure speed up upgrade international trade structure to advanced of, service trade and technology trade development ascendant international trade structure of advanced of and industry structure of upgrade mutual for relying on, from its changes trend see has following two a highlight features. is a position of high-tech products, trade in manufactured products significantly improve, particularly in the fastest growing ict exports. at the same time, transnational corporations have high-tech industries represented by information technology transfer to developing countries in recent years, developing technology-intensive products export share of the global fast-rising, has risen from per cent in 1985 to per cent in 2000. second, accompanied by the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure of countries, rapid development in global services trade. (2) international competition more intense focus on high-tech industry and information, and financial service sectors, while developing countries such as china are still groping, developed countries have clear advantages in these areas. however, for emerging countries like china, also is relying on the development of technology industries in developed countries and we have to get development opportunities, because developed countries need to be looking for strategic partners in new markets for its productivity and labour and the development of local market demands. as if emerging countries around the world, in such an era of global economic integration, china also needs to support economic development of new growth points, looking for market demand. this is upgrading industrial structure in china, opportunity brought by the export structure.2.1.3 speeding up of economic globalization, the international division of growingaccelerated development of economic globalization, the worlds growing trade and investment, integration of national economies increasingly deepened; transnational investment and international production by transnational corporations, become the dominant force in the globalization of the economy; the world economy is experiencing a new round of structural adjustment and industrial transfer; unbalanced