双语阅读-巴菲特的五条投资经

Five Investing Tips From Warren Buffett 巴菲特的五条投资经 What does Warren Buffetts message to stockholders mean for you and your money? 巴巴菲特(Warren Buffett)向股东传达出的信息对你和你的钱来说意 味着什么呢？ Every year Mr. Buffett, the worlds third-richest man and arguably the most successful stock-market investor in history, writes a letter to stockholders in his investment company Berkshire Hathaway. The latest came out this weekend. There are usually some nuggets for all those who havent invested in Berkshire, and this years letter was no exception. Here are five: 巴菲特，全世界第三大富豪、也可以说是史上最成功的股市投资者， 每年都会给他的投资公司伯克希尔哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)的 股东们写一封信。最新的致股东信不久前出炉。对于所有那些没有 投资伯克希尔的人来说，信中往往会蕴含一些宝贵的“投资经”， 今年也不 例外。以下就是五条巴菲特的投资经： 1. Watch out for stock-market valuations. Mr. Buffetts company is now sitting on a cash hoard of $38 billion. Thats among the highest levels its ever been, says Stifel Nicolas analyst Meyer Shields. While Mr. Buffett says he is looking for a big acquisition, and has his elephant gun loaded, the high cash pile also suggests hes having a challenge finding really good deals. If Mr. Buffett is cautious, investors might want to take note: Its another sign that many valuations on the stock market may be looking a little stretched. 1. 留意股市估值留意股市估值 巴菲特的公司目前坐拥 380 亿美元的现金储备。Stifel Nicolas 的 分析师施尔德(Meyer Shields)说，这是该公司现金水平最高的时期之 一。虽然巴菲特说他正在寻找一笔大规模的收购交易，而且他的“猎 象枪已经上膛了”，但大量的现金储备 也表明，巴菲特在寻找真正 合适的交易时遇到了困难。如果巴菲特是谨慎的，那么投资者或许 需要留意了：这是表明许多股票的估值可能被稍许高估的又一个迹 象。 2. Coke is it. Mr. Buffett rarely makes predictions, but in the case of Coca-Cola a long-term holdinghe issues a remarkable one: Dividends will probably double . within ten years, he writes. That would take them from last years $1.76 to $3.52 per share. If Coca-Cola stock didnt move over that period, it would raise the dividend yield from 2.5% today to above 5%. Berkshire owns 8.6% of Coca-Cola stock. 2. 没错，就是可口可乐没错，就是可口可乐 巴菲特很少做出预言，但对他长期持有的可口可乐(Coca-Cola)， 他做出了一个惊人的预言：他写道，十年之内派息可能会增加一倍。 按照这个预言，可口 可乐的派息额将从去年的每股 1.76 美元增至 3.52 美元。如果在此期间可口可乐的股价没有变化，派息率将从如 今的 2.5%升至 5%以上。伯克希尔持有该 公司 8.6%的股权。 3. Some of his favorite stocks are still cheap. While the stock market overall has boomed, and its a battle to find cheap stocks, one thing does stand out: Many of Warren Buffetts favorite stocks remain at, or around, the prices he paid for them. As Mr. Buffett only likes to buy stocks for a lot less than he thinks they are really worth, this suggests you can get a bargain or twoalthough, as always, there are no guarantees. They include French drug maker Sanofi-Aventis. Berkshire Hathaway has accumulated about $1.8 billion worth of the stock. Sanofis share price has come under pressure lately as a result of its acquisition of biotech giant Genzyme. At $35, its American Depositary Receipts are now about 12% below the average price Mr. Buffett paid. Or look at Kraft Foods. Mr. Buffett owns 97 million shares, a hefty 5.6% of the company, for which he paid an average of $33 each. Today the stock is just $32. It has been held back, in part, by the costs of the takeover of Britains Cadbury. But the stock yields a decent 3.7%. It is a reasonable 14 times forecast earnings, and just over 1.1 times annual revenues. Mr. Buffett also owns 45 million shares in health-care behemoth Johnson & Johnson, a stake valued at about $2.7 billion. He paid about $61 for the stock: Its now $60, 12 times forecast earnings, yielding 3.6%. A cheap stock. And what about Wal-Mart Stores? Its tumbled in recent weeks to $52. Thats just 12 times forecast earnings. And the dividend yield, 2.3%, may not be huge, but its the highest its ever been. Todays price is just a few dollars a share more than Warren Buffett paid: Berkshire Hathaway accumulated a $2 billion stake at an average of about $48.50. 3. 一些他最锺爱的股票仍然很便宜一些他最锺爱的股票仍然很便宜 尽管股市一片繁荣，发现便宜的股票并非易事，可有一件事的 确引人注意：巴菲特锺爱的股票中有许多目前的股价仍然处于、或 是大致处于他当初购买时的水平。由于 巴菲特只喜欢以比他认为真 正所值的价钱低很多的价位来购买股票，因此这表明你也许能够做 成一、两笔划算的买卖不过，一如往常，这是无法打保票的。 这 类股票包括法国制药公司赛诺菲-安万特(Sanofi-Aventis)。伯 克希尔哈撒韦已经累计握有了该公司价值约 18 亿美元的股票。由 于收购了生物 科技界巨头 Genzyme，赛诺菲的股价最近承受着压力。 赛诺菲美国存托凭证目前每股的价格为 35 美元，这要比巴菲特当初 支付的平均价格低 12%左右。 再看看卡夫食品(Kraft Foods)。巴菲特持有 9700 万股卡夫食品 的股票，数量之多相当于该公司 5.6%的股权，而他当初所支付的均 价为每股 33 美元。目前该股股价仅为 32 美元。这在一定程度上是 因为收购英国吉百利公司(Cadbury)所产生的成本使它的股价受到了 抑制。但该股收益率仍达到了 3.7%这一相当不错的水平。 它基于 收益预期的市盈率为 14 倍，还算过得去，而基于年收入的市盈率则 刚好超过 1.1 倍。 巴菲特还持有 4500 万股医疗保健业巨头强生公 司(Johnson & Johnson)的股票，这部分股票的价值大约为 27 亿美元。他以约 61 美元的股价买入该股：目前其股价为 60 美元，基于收益预期的市盈 率为 12 倍，收益 率为 3.6%。算得上是一只便宜的股票。 沃尔玛(Wal-Mart Stores)的情况又如何呢？最近几周它的股价大 幅跌至 52 美元。其基于收益预期的市盈率刚好为 12 倍。虽然 2.3% 的派息率也许不算太高，但这是它最 高的派息率。沃尔玛目前的股 价只比巴菲特曾经支付的价格高出几美元：伯克希尔以大约 48.50 美元的均价累计购入了 20 亿美元的沃尔玛股票。 4. Berkshire stock isnt expensive, by Mr. Buffetts own calculations. No one knows exactly what a share in Berkshire Hathaway is really worth. Mr. Buffett himself told investors over the weekend that if you ask him and his veteran co-manager Charlie Munger to calculate the intrinsic value of the stock, you will get two different answers. Precision just isnt possible. However, he says, book, or net asset, value is his preferred understated proxy for intrinsic value. Mr. Buffett writes, To be sure, some of our businesses are worth far more than their carrying value on our books But since that premium seldom swings wildly from year to year, book value can serve as a reasonable device for tracking how we are doing. So its intriguing that Berkshire Hathaway stock today trades at $128,000, or just 1.3 times that book value. Stifels Mr. Shields says the historic average is about 1.6 times. If the premium between book value and the intrinsic value doesnt swing that much from year to year, one might conclude that Berkshire is looking a little cheap. Naturally, as a big company, it has a lot less growth ahead of it. And as Mr. Buffett is 80, his years of producing spectacular investment returns are nearer the end than the beginning. Nonetheless, in a market where so many investments seem to be trading at lofty valuations, it is notable that Berkshire is below its average. For those who wish to invest, and who dont have $128,000 in spare cash, the economy-class B shares trade for $85. 4. 按巴菲特自己的计算，伯克希尔的股价并不贵按巴菲特自己的计算，伯克希尔的股价并不贵 没有人准确地知道伯克希尔的每一股股票究竟值多少钱。巴菲 特本人不久前对投资者说，如果你让他和他合作已久的联合管理者 芒格(Charlie Munger)计算这支股票的内在价值，你会得到两个不同 的答案。要想精确无误是不可能的。 但他说，帐面价值，或是净资产价值是他所青睐的内在价值的 简单替代指标。巴菲特写道，毋庸置疑，我们某些业务的价值要远 远超过帐面上体现出的价值但由于这种溢价在年复一年中很少出 现大幅变化，因此帐面价值可以用作一种合理的追踪工具，从中来 了解我们的表现究竟如何。 如此说来，伯克希尔目前的股价 128,000 美元就很吸引人了， 其基于帐面价值的市盈率仅为 1.3 倍。Stifel 的施尔德说，其历史均 值约为 1.6 倍。如果帐面价值与内在价值间的“溢价”每年的变化没有 那么大，你或许可以得出结论，认为伯克希尔的股价是有点儿便宜 了。 当然，作为一家大公司，将来的增长空间已是大大缩小。巴菲 特也已经八十岁了，他所能取得令人惊叹的投资回报的时间已是更 加接近于终点而非起点。尽管如此，在一个众多投资似乎都是以极 高的估值进行交易的市场中，伯克希尔能够做到低于平均水平还是 值得人们注意的。 如果你想投资伯克希尔可又拿不出 128,000 美元的闲钱，那么 B 股会便宜一些，股价为 85 美元。 5. Get ready for a dividend hike at Wells Fargo. Mr. Buffetts favorite bank, San Francisco-based Wells Fargo, has had its dividend levels held back by the Federal Reserve, along with other banks, during the financial crisis. At some point, probably soon, the Feds restrictions will cease, he writes. Wells Fargo can then reinstate the rational dividend policy that its owners deserve. At that time, we would expect our annual dividends from just this one security to increase by several hu