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译文题目：GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES IN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY NICOLETA ISAC, CONSTANTIN BGU 汽车工业的全球视野 GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES IN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRYNICOLETA ISAC, CONSTANTIN BGU ABSTRACT: The automotive sector is characterised by a relatively low trade/sales ratio. While the production of most automotive producers in the world is spread over various countries in the value chain, the brands are still considered to reflect some national identity. Internationalisation strategies may change over the lifecycle of the product and automakers tend to pursue diametrically opposed strategies. In mature markets, it is about managing what goes on beneath a static surface; in emerging markets dynamic environments, companies must strategically position themselves to benefit from growth opportunities. However, without the right strategy and execution in mature markets, it is clear that traditional OEMs cannot profit from emerging markets-the persistence of structural issues in mature market operations eventually will rob all but the most resilient competitors of the opportunity to compete in emerging markets.KEY WORDS: competitiveness; automotive industry; global market; sales; investment1. INTERNATIONAL MARKETIn Europe, the restructuring process is characterised by the shift east with the new EU member states in Central and East Europe (CEE) acting as the Westerns pressure valve against a background of stagnating sales, rising raw material costs, increased competition from Asian automakers and falling new car prices. CEE gives automakers access to less costly labour and new customers, and it allows new entrants,such as Hyundai and Kia, to compete without legacy costs. The net effect has been a rebalancing of automaker footprints in the region with Western Europe losing 1.5 million in capacity since 2000, while CEE countries will have added 1.8 million units of capacity by 2009. While mature market OEMs gradually come to grips with the market-specifi c challenges presented to them, multifarious strategic challenges weigh just as heavily before emerging market investments are considered. Strategic challenges emanate from two sources-legislation or competition-and both add costs to competing in markets where better performance will originate only by increasing market share or reducing costs. Such constraints include increasing fuel economy or CO2 objectives, recycling initiatives (e.g., the EUs End of Life Vehicle Directive), changing consumer tastes, vehicle content escalation, premium brand growth, rising commodity prices and globalised supply chain management, among others.Figure 1. Global perspectiveOnce automakers meet these mature market challenges, the next stage is to compete effectively in the worlds growth markets. From 2007 to 2015, emerging markets are expected to represent 18 times the estimated growth in light vehicle assembly as mature markets in the same period. PwC forecasts that 95 percent of light vehicle growth will originate from emerging markets. Among these markets, the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries are most eminent in the growth stakes, with more than 58 percent of forecasted growth from 2007 to 2015 stemming from them. Of the BRIC countries, PwC expects China and India to lead the growth in light vehicle output as OEMs look to sate the demands of a combined population of more than 2 billion people, with the less populous-but still strategically important-Russia and Brazil expected to grow less rapidly.With these divergent focuses of OEMs strategies, those competitors that best execute emerging and mature market strategies will be the winners. Those managing location issues with the concomitant capacity, together with a product portfolio that addresses anomalous market needs at the most attractive cost, will profit from the challenging global environment. Of the various competitors, it would seem that Toyota, despite a recent slowing of its growth in North America and Europe, is executing the most balanced global strategy. By 2015, PwC forecasts Toyota to remain the leading global alliance group with a forecast light vehicle output of 11.3 million. Behind Toyota lies the growth forecast for GM, thanks to its strong emerging market presence,and the dynamic Renault-Nissan alliance. While the emerging market or low-cost car was once an important differentiator for Renault-Nissan, many of its competitors are looking to launch competing vehicles-e.g., Toyota with its EFC program and VW with its NCC program. Low-cost vehicles will take on increasing importance for global automakers as they seek to accelerate the development of emerging markets and thus reduce the pressure to perform in the worlds highly competitive and challenging established markets.2.EUROPEAN UNION OUTLOOKDespite a short period of contraction from 2000 to 2003, Western Europe has enjoyed considerable stability since the late 1990s, with sales hovering around the 14.5 million mark in the mid-2000s. A lack of dynamic growth is a feature of a mostly mature market such as Western Europe, where replacement cycles and the prevailing economic situation drive demand. Economic growth in countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia, as well as Romania (joined 2007), has spurred a boom in sales volumes. The star performer has been Romania, where sales rose more than 25 percent in 2007-08, thanks to the improving economic situation and the rollout of the Dacia Logan-exactly the type of low-cost car designed to boost sales in emerging markets. Poland also seems to be reaching its potential, with sales increasing almost 23 percent year-on-year and totalling 293,000 in 2007.Figure 2. European regions assembly 2000 vs. 2010 (milion units)In Western Europe, a mosaic of factors influences the new car market. In Germany, the impact of the 3 percent increase in WATT continues to hold the German market back, so that despite a high average vehicle parc age and increasingly positive economic news, sales in 2007 were down almost 10 percent from 2006. Of the other big-fi ve markets, Spain also has moved into the negative, as the countrys construction-driven economic boom ended and consumer confidence declined. Italy,France and the UK posted above-average year-on-year growth for 2007, with Italy, in particular, performing well (up 7 percent), thanks in part to a raft of new vehicle introductions from domestic OEM Fiat. The UK (up 2.5 percent) and France (up 3.2 percent) also posted positive fi gures; however, increasing disquiet about the general economic situation- stubbornly high unemployment fi gures in France, the increased cost of credit in the UK, and the rising cost of living in almost all markets (mature and emerging)-suggests the picture for 2008 will not be so rosy3. SUPPLY SITUATIONDue to the stable demand noted above, EU light vehicle output also has remained steady. Light vehicle assembly output rose to 18.830 million units in 2007, a significant increase above the previous peak of 18.065 million units in 2000. Following several years of near-fl at growth, output increased almost 1 million units in 2007. Looking ahead, light vehicle assembly output should continue to grow, at least until 2013. Then it is projected to reach 20.749 million units, almost 2 million units more than 2007s output. After this, volume likely will stabilise around 20.7 million units. The source of this growth will be twofold. First, a combination of market recovery and, more importantly, new model programme investment will see increased output from traditional Western European automotive assembly countries Germany, France and Italy. Collectively, these three will see an increase in excess of 800,000 units between 2007 and 2015. Second, the countries of Central Europe, specifically those that acceded to the European Union in 2004 and 2007, also will see significant volume gains. Growth of their export industries and burgeoning domestic demand will drive this increase. The key assembly locations in Central Europe will be the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Romania. Collectively, they will account for more than 1 million units of extra assembly volume between 2007 and 2015. Investment activity by specific alliance groups naturally will have a significant effect on volume growth. The top five contributors to growth during the 2007-2015 period will be Hyundai Group, VW-Porsche, Fiat Group, Renault-Nissan and Ford Group. Renault-Nissan and Ford will enjoy volume growth, thanks to investments in Romania. In all these cases, automakers will rely on both domestic sales (in mature and emerging European markets) and, increasingly, exports to underpin these growth strategies. In the important Central European markets of Poland, Romania, Czech Republic and Slovakia, OEMs will add more capacity to take advantage of the lower-cost location and potential for domestic sales growth. Hence the model mix in these plants will be a combination of low-cost, emerging market products and higherend vehicles for export to developed markets in Europe and around the globe. Romania, in particular, has become the new focus for investment. Between 2007 and 2015, its new capacity will expand by a projected 330,000 units. Some of this will be continuing expansion of the Dacia business by owner Renault, but the recent acquisition of a plant (with guarantees of capacity expansion) by Ford also is a major driver. Thanks to accession, Romania is increasingly on the agenda of other OEMs looking to adjust their European footprints. Sales in Romania are represented in tabel 1.The Russian market is unusual in having so many foreign players with such initially low forecast production plans. Most vehicle manufacturers appear to be hedging their bets wisely and planning a balanced strategy of local production and continued import. Depending on how investment conditions in Russia develop, vehicle manufacturers have the opportunity to increase or decrease the balance between import and local production. The tables below illustrate the latest Automotive Institute estimates of planned local production levels by brand origin over different time horizons. The next table indicates that production of foreign automotive brands in Russia could rise from about 450,000 in 2007 to a sustainable level of around 3 million units within seven years. Nearly all of this growth will be foreign OEM brands or new Russian brands developed in collaboration with foreign strategic investors, such as between Avtovaz and Renault. What does this imply for the future of the automotive component industry in Russia?Figure 3. Car salesOut of general economic necessity, most vehicle manufacturers will be trying to localise even more of their component supply to reduce customs duties and transport costs, and to benefit from local wage and raw material costs. If this trend is successful, the percentage of OEM components locally manufactured should increase from 10 percent to more than 50 percent over the next ten years, assuming that component cost is about 60 percent of the price of the car. This development could see the market for primary auto components for vehicle brands increase from $ 0.36 billion today to about $ 18 billion in seven years time. At the same time, we could see a similar, if not larger, scale of increase in the secondary market for components. In short, an entire component industry waits to be developed in the wake of the current wave of foreign car manufacturing investment in Russia.Figure 4. The prospect of Russian manufacturing4. CHINESE AND INDIAN BRANDS TO GAIN MARKET SHAREMarket share expectations continue to shift in favour of emerging Asian and mature Japanese and Korean brands; U.S. brands are expected to perform worst. Year on year Chinese brands have moved from second to first place in market share expectations, and Indian brands from fourth to second place, relegating Toyota from top position to third. Expectations of Hondas market share have grown, as have expectations for many European brands. Meanwhile, expectations for General Motors, Ford and Chrysler have declined further from an already low level, with 63 percent of respondents expecting Ford to lose market share, 66 percent for General Motors and 69 percent for Chrysler. On a regional basis, EMA companies are markedly more optimistic on market share expectation than companies in the Americas or ASPAC - and in particular, they are more optimistic on the prospects for European brands (more than half of EMA companies see market share increases for VW and BMW).Companies believe that even when China and India are discounted, emerging markets will still grow faster than any other region. Expectations of growth over the next three 48 years in markets outside China and India are globally well-distributed. Expectations are strongest for Central and South America, reflecting the relative resilience of Brazilian 36 demand as economies elsewhere turns down. Nevertheless, a significant minority of respondents also expect strong growth in the Middle East and Africa, and again in 24 Russia and Ukraine.Figure 5. Markets and regions will present the greatest demand for consumption in the next 3 years5.GROWTH MARKET BY FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTDrivers of future cross-border automotive deals will likely include the arrival of new global players, emerging market growth, and currency fluctuations. In many cases, automotive companies in emerging nations are quickly becoming global players looking for increased access to global customers, markets, and technology. Examples in recent deals include Indias Tata and Mahindra & Mahindra, Chinas Chery and SAIC, and Russias Russian Machines. This trend is likely to feed cross-border deal flow over the next several years. In turn, companies from developed nations seeking to gain further access to the quickly growing markets in the BRIC countries are also likely to be a factor in future cross-border deal activity. This could be especially true of component suppliers who are seeking proximity to local VMs. There were early signs of this in 2007 including Cummins purchase of the remaining shares of Tata Holset (a joint venture founded to produce diesel engines in India) and Boschs increased investment in Motor Industries, an Indian based component supplier. Finally, the weakening of the US dollar versus global currencies in 2008 vs. 2007 is likely to encourage bargain hunting in the US. This trend is already materialising in early 2008 as interest in US automotive assets increases. Overall, the currency situation could lead to a significantly larger net deal deficit for the US in 2008 vs. 2007, including large net deal surpluses from Asia, RoW, and potentially Europe.Figure 6. Net flow of business by region 20076. CONCLUSIONTaking as a criterion performance on the global market, one can conclude that the European automotive industry is without any doubt competitive. It has expanded its export shares, and has maintained or improved slightly its share in global sales. Its position in emerging markets such as China and the Russian Federation is strong and offers prospects for further growth. This success of the European automotive industry in international competition is primarily based on its dominance of a large, loyal, sophisticated and diversified home market. Moreover, enlargement has been beneficial to the industry through its productive base and market effects. However, not all is positive. If the performance of the German, French and Spanish industry is strong, Italy and the UK have lost market shares. The new production locations in Eastern Europe will increase pressures on existing locations.Finally, if the home market is indeed the largest in the World, it relies mostly on the replacement of existing cars and its growth potential (at least for EU-15 countries) has peaked.REFERENCES:1.Achterholt, U. (2009) Industry concerns and expectations 2009-2013 Momentum, KPMGsGlobal Auto Executive Survey 20092. Elie, P.; McCarth, P. (2008) Drive value* Automotive M&A Insights3. Matthew, F. (2008) European Union Outlook, Global Automotive Perspective4. Root, S.; Tobin, P.; Sherbakova, N.; Komarov, A. (2008) Automotive Industry Prospects in Russia, Global Automotive Perspectives汽车工业的全球视野摘要：汽车行业的特点是一个相对较低的贸易/销售比。虽然世界上大多数汽车生产商的生产价值链在各个国家传播，但品牌仍被认为是反映了国家的某些特性。国际化战略在产品生命周期的变化，汽车制造商倾向于追求截然相反的策略。在成熟的市场，它是关于管理的静态表面之下，在新兴市场的动态环境，企业必须从战略地位，以受益于增长机会。然而，不成熟的市场，正确的策略和执行，显然，传统的OEM不能得益于新兴市场结构性问题的持续成熟的市场操作，最终将抢劫但所有的机会最有力的竞争对手争夺新兴市场。【关键字】竞争力；汽车产业；全球市场；销售；投资1.国际市场在欧洲，重组过程的特点是与新的欧盟成员国在中欧和东欧（CEE）作为移东西方的压力阀和一个销售停滞不前的背景下，原材料成本上升、竞争加剧，亚洲汽车制造商和下降的新车价格。CEE给汽车制造商获得低成本的劳动力和新的客户，并允许新的进入者，如现代和起亚，不遗留成本竞争。净效果是平衡与西欧失去150万容量自2000在该地区的汽车制造商的脚印，而东欧国家将有能力增加180万单位2009。而成熟市场OEM逐渐与市场的具体挑战了他们的交手，五花八门的战略挑战的重量仅为重考虑之前的新兴市场投资。战略挑战来自两个来源的立法或竞争，同时增加成本，市场竞争将产生更好的性能，只能通过增加市场份额、降低成本。这些限制包括提高燃油经济性和CO2的目标，回收举措（例如，欧盟报废汽车指令），改变消费者的口味，车内容升级，高端品牌的增长，大宗商品价格的上涨和全球供应链管理，等等。图1.全球视角一旦汽车制造商满足这些成熟的市场挑战，下一阶段是在世界的增长市场有效竞争。从2007到2015，新兴市场预计将在同一时期的成熟市场的18倍，预计增长的轻汽车组装。普华永道预测，轻型汽车百分之95的增长将来自新兴市场。在这些市场中，金砖四国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）国家在增长方面最为杰出，其预测的增长率从百分之58增长到2015，从2007增长到。在金砖四国中，普华永道预计，中国和印度的增长导致在轻型汽车产量为OEM看国家一个超过20亿人口的需求，随着人口较少但仍具有重要战略意义的俄罗斯和巴西的预期增长迅速。这些分歧主要汽车制造商的策略，这些竞争对手的最佳执行新兴和成熟的市场策略将成为赢家。这些管理位置问题的同时，与一个产品组合，解决了异常的市场需求，最有吸引力的成本，将利润从具有挑战性的全球环境。在各种竞争对手中，丰田似乎认为，尽管最近在北美国和欧洲的经济增长放缓，但其执行的是最平衡的全球战略。2015，普华永道预测丰田保持领先的全球联盟集团与1130万轻型汽车产量预测。丰田背后的是通用汽车的增长预测，得益于其强大的新兴市场的存在，和动态的雷诺-日产联盟。而新兴市场或低成本汽车曾是雷诺和日产的一个重要的区别，它的许多竞争对手正在展开竞争，丰田以其等程序和大众的NCC程序。低成本的汽车将越来越重视全球汽车制造商，因为他们寻求加快新兴市场的发展，从而减少在世界上的竞争和挑战性的市场表现的压力。2.欧盟的前景尽管短期内收缩，从2000到2003，西欧自上世纪90年代末以来享有相当稳定，销量徘徊在1450万马克在2000年代中期，缺乏动态增长是最成熟的市场如欧洲西部的一个特点，在更换周期和当时的经济形势驱动需求。在波兰这样的国家的经济增长，捷克共和国，匈牙利和斯洛伐克，以及罗马尼亚（加入2007），催生了一个繁荣的销售量。表演的明星是罗马尼亚，那里的销售额增长超过百分之25，在2007-08赛季，由于经济形势的改善和达契亚洛根正是低成本汽车旨在促进在新兴市场的销售类型的部署。波兰似乎也达到了它的潜力，销售额几乎增加了百分之23，达到293000同比增长2007。 图2.欧洲地区总成2000与2010（万台）在西欧，一个镶嵌的因素影响了新的汽车市场。在德国，在瓦百分之3增加的影响继续持有德国市场回来，所以尽管有较高的平均车辆PARC年龄和越来越积极的经济消息，2007的销售额已经从2006下降近百分之10。西班牙的其他大型金融市场，西班牙也进入了负增长，因为该国的建设带动的经济繁荣结束，消费者信心下降。意大利，法国和英国公布的平均同比增长率为2007，与意大利，特别是，表现良好（增长百分之7），部分归功于一系列新的车辆介绍，从国内代工菲亚特。英国（百分之2.5）和法国（百分之3.2）也发布了积极的网络数据；然而，越来越多的不安，总的经济形势，失业率居高不下的网络连接在法国，在英国的信用成本的增加，以及生活成本的上升几乎在所有市场（成熟和新兴）-显示图片2008将不那么乐观3.供应状况由于上面提到的稳定需求，欧盟轻型车的产量也一直保持稳定。轻型汽车总成的产量上升到1883万个单位的2007，比前一个高峰的1806万5000个单位的2000个显著增加。在近几年的增长，在近几年的增长，产量增加了近100万个单位的2007。展望未来，轻型汽车总成的产量应该继续增长，至少要到2013。然后，它预计将达到2074万9000台，近200万台，超过2007的输出。在此之后，成交量可能会稳定在2070万个左右的单位。这一增长的来源将是双重的。首先，市场复苏的组合，更重要的是，新的模型方案的投资将看到增加从传统的西欧汽车组装国家德国，法国和意大利。总的来说，这三个将看到2007和800000之间的2015个单位的增加超过了。其次，欧洲中部的国家，特别是那些加入欧盟的2004和2007，也会看到明显的放量上涨。其出口产业的增长和新兴的国内需求将推动这一增长。在欧洲中部的关键组件的位置将是捷克共和国，波兰，斯洛伐克，罗马尼亚。总的来说，他们将占到和2007之间的和2015之间的额外的组装量的超过100万单位。特定的联盟团体的投资活动，自然会对数量增长有显著影响。前五名贡献者增长2007-2015期间将现代集团，大众，保时捷，菲亚特，雷诺-日产和福特集团。由于在罗马尼亚的投资，雷诺日产和福特将享受销量增长。在所有这些情况下，汽车制造商将依赖于国内销售（在成熟和新兴的欧洲市场），越来越多的出口，以巩固这些增长战略。在波兰、罗马尼亚的重要中心的欧洲市场，捷克共和国和斯洛伐克，制造商将增加更多的能力，利用低成本的定位和国内销售的增长潜力。因此，在这些植物的模型将是一个组合的低成本