合肥市天鹅湖畔地块项目可行性研究报告_68页_2009年.doc

lesson 1 a private conversation 私人谈话last week i went to the theatre. i had a very good seat. the play was very interesting. i did not enjoy it. a young man and a young woman were sitting behind me. they were talking loudly. i got very angry. i could not hear the actors. i turned round. i looked at the man and the woman angrily. they did not pay any attention. in the end, i could not bear it. i turned round again. i cant hear a word! i said angrily. its none of your business, the young man said rudely. this is a private conversation!.lesson 2 breakfast or lunch? 早餐还是午餐？it was sunday. i never get up early on sundays. i sometimes stay in bed until lunch time.last sunday i got up very late. i looked out of the window. it was dark outside. what a day! i thought. its raining again. just then, the telephone rang. it was my aunt lucy. ive just arrived by train, she said. im coming to see you. but im still having breakfast, i said.what are you doing ? she asked. im having breakfast, i repeated.dear me, she said. do you always get up so late ? its one oclock!lesson 3 please send me a card 请给我寄一张明信片 postcards always spoil my holidays. last summer, i went to italy. i visited museums and sat in public gardens. a friendly waiter taught me a few words of italian. then he lent me a book. i read a few lines, but i did not understand a word. every day i thought about postcards. my holidays passed quickly, but i did not send any cards to my friends. on the last day i made a big decision. i got up early and bought thirty-seven cards. i spent the whole day in my room, but i did not write a single card !lesson 4 an exciting trip 激动人心的旅行i have just received a letter from my brother, tim. he is in australia. he has been there for six months. tim is an engineer. he is working for a big firm and he has already visited a great number of different places in australia. he has just bought an australian car and has gone to alice springs, a small town in the centre of australia. he will soon visit darwin. from there, he will fly to perth. my brother has never been abroad before, so he is finding this trip very exciting.lesson 5 no wrong numbers 无错号之虞 mr james scott has a garage in silbury and now he has just bought another garage in pinhurst. pinhurst is only five miles from silbury, but mr scott cannot get a telephone for his new garage, so he has just bought twelve pigeons. yesterday, a pigeon carried the first message from pinhurst to silbury. the bird covered the distance in three minutes. up to now, mr scott has sent a great many requests for spare parts and other urgent messages from one garage to the other. in this way, he has begun his own private telephone service.lesson 6 percy buttons 珀西巴顿斯i have just moved to a house in bridge street. yesterday a beggar knocked at my door. he asked me for a meal and a glass of beer. in return for this, the beggar stood on his head and sang songs. i gave him a meal. he ate the food and drank the beer. then he put a piece of cheese in his pocket and went away. later a neighbour told me about him. everybody knows him. his name is percy buttons. he calls at every house in the street once a month and always asks for a meal and a glass of beer.lesson 7 too late 为时太晚 the plane was late and detectives were waiting at the airport all morning. they were expecting a valuable parcel of diamond from south africa. a few hours earlier, someone had told the police that thieves would try to steal the diamonds. when the plane arrived, some of the detectives were waiting inside the main building while others were waiting on the airfield. two men took the parcel off the plane and carried it into the customs house. while two detectives were keeping guard at the door, two others opened the parcel. to their surprise, the precious parcel was full of stones and sand!lesson 8 the best and the worst 最好的和最差的joe sanders has the most beautiful garden in our town. nearly everybody enters for the nicest garden competition each year, but joe wins every time. bill friths garden is larger than joes. bill works harder than joe and grows more flowers and vegetables, but joes garden is more interesting. he has made neat paths and has built a wooden bridge over a pool. i like gardens too, but i do not like hard work. every year i enter for the garden competition too, and i always win a little prize for the worst garden in the town!lesson 9 a cold welcome 冷遇on wednesday evening, we went to the town hall. it was the last day of the year and a large crowd of people had gathered under the town hall clock. it would strike twelve in twenty minutes time. fifteen minutes passed and then, at five to twelve, the clock stopped. the big minute hand did not move. we waited and waited, but nothing happened. suddenly someone shouted, its two minutes past twelve! the clock has stopped! i looked at my watch. it was true. the big clock refused to welcome the new year. at that moment everybody began to laugh and sing.lesson 10 not for jazz 不适于演奏爵士乐we have an old musical instrument. it is called a clavichord(翼琴). it was made in germany in 1681. our clavichord is kept in the living-room. it has belong to our family for a long time. the instrument was bought by my grandfather many years ago. recently it was damaged by a visitor. she tried to play jazz on it! she struck the keys too hard and two of the strings were broken. my father was shocked. now we are not allowed to touch it. it is being repaired by a friend of my fathers.lesson 11 one good turn deserves another 礼尚往来i was having dinner at a restaurant when harry steele came in. harry worked in a lawyers office years ago, but he is now working at a bank. he gets a good salary, but he always borrows money from his friends and never pays it back. harry saw me and came and sat at the same table. he has never borrowed money from me. while he was eating, i asked him to lend me &2. to my surprise, he gave me the money immediately. i have never borrowed any money from you, harry said, so now you can pay for my dinner!lesson 12 goodbye and good luck 再见，一路顺风our ncighbour, captain charles alison, will sail from portsmouth tomorrow. we shall meet him at the harbour early in the morning. he will be in his small boat, topsail.tapsail is a famous little boat. it has sailed across the atlantic many times. captain alison will set out at eight oclock so we shall have plenty of time. we shall see his boat and then we shall say good-bye to him. he will be away for two months. we are very proud of him. he will take part in an important race across the atlantic.lesson 13 the greenwood boys 绿林少年the greenwood boys are a group of popular singers. at present, they are visiting all parts of the country. they will be arriving here tomorrow. they will be coming by train and most of the youngpeople in the town will be meeting them at the station. tomorrow evening they will be singing at the workers club. the greenwood boys will be staying for five days. during this time, they will give five performances. as usual, the police will have a difficult time. they will be trying to keep order. it is always the same on these occasions.lesson 14 do you speak english? 你会讲英语吗？i had an amusing experience last year. after i had left a small village in the south of france, i drove on to the next town. on the way, a young man waved to me. i stopped and he asked me for a lift. as soon as he had got into the car, i said good morning to him in french and he replied in the same language. apart from a few words, i do not know any french at all. neither of us spoke during the journey. i had nearly reached the town, when the young man suddenly said, very slowly, do you speak english? as i soon learnt, he was english himself!lesson 15 good news 佳音 the secretary told me that mr. harmsworth would see me. i felt very nervous when. i went into his office. he did not look up from his desk when i entered. after i had sat down, he said that business was very bad. he told me that the firm could not afford to pay such large salaries. twenty people had already left. i knew that my turn had come. mr. harmsworth, i said in a weak voice. dont interrupt, he said. then he smiled and told me i would receive an extra &100 a year!lesson 16 a polite request 彬彬有礼的要求if you park your car in the wrong place, a traffic policeman will soon find it. you will be very lucky if he lets you go without a ticket. however, this does not always happen. traffic police are sometimes very polite. during a holiday in sweden, i found this note on my car: sir, we welcome you to our city. this is a no parking area. you will enjoy your stay here if you pay attention to our street signs. this note is only a reminder. if you receive a request like this, you cannot fail to obey it!lesson 17 always young 青年常驻my aunt jennifer is an actress. she must be at least thirty-five years old. in spite of this, she often appears on the stage as a young girl. jennifer will have to take part in a new play soon. this time, she will be a girl of seventeen. in the play, she must appear in a bright red dress and long black stockings. last year in another play, she had to wear short socks and a bright, orange-coloured dress. if anyone ever asked her how old she is, she always answers, my dear, it must be terrible to be grown up!lesson18 he often does this! 他经常干这种事！after i had had lunch at a village inn, i looked for my bag. i had left it on a chair beside the door and now it wasnt there ! as i was looking for it, the inn-keeper came in. did you have a good meal ? he asked. yes, thank you, i answered, but i cant pay the bill. i havent got my bag. the inn-keeper smiled and immediately went out. in a few minutes he returned with my bag and gave it back to me. im very sorry, he said my dog had taken it into the garden. he often does this.lesson19 sold out 票已售完the play may begin at any moment, i said. it may have begun already, susan answered.i hurried to the ticket-office. may i have two tickets please ? i asked.im sorry, weve sold out, the girl said.what a pity! susan exclaimed.just then, a man hurried to the ticket-office.can i return these two tickets? he asked.certainly, the girl said.could i have those two tickets please ? i asked.certainly, the girl said, but they are for next wednesdays performance.i might as well have them, i said sadly.lesson20 one man in a boat 独坐孤舟fishing is my favourite sport. i often fish for hours without catching anything. but this does not worry me. some fishermen are unlucky. instead of catching fish, they catch old boots and rubbish. i am even less lucky. i never catch anything-not even old boots. after having spent whole mornings on the river, i always go home with an empty bag. you must give up fishing! my friends say. its a waste of time. but they dont realize one important thing. im not really interested in fishing. i am only interested in sitting in a boat and doing nothing at all !lesson21 mad or not? 是不是疯了？aeroplanes are slowly driving me mad. i live near an airport and passing planes can be heard night and day. the airport was built during the war, but for some reason it could not be used then. last year, however, it came into use. over a hundred people must have been driven away from their homes by the noise. i am one of the few people left. sometimes i think this house will be knocked down by a passing plane. i have been offered a large sum of money to go away, but i am determined to stay here. everybody says i must be mad and they are probably right.lesson22 a glass envelope 玻璃信封my daughter, jane, never dreamed of receiving a letter from a girl of her own age in holland. last year, we were travelling across the channel and jane put a piece of paper with her name and address on it into a bottle. she threw the bottle into the sea. she never thought of it again, but ten months later, she received a letter from a girl in holland. both girls write to each other regularly now. however, they have decided to use the post-office. letters will cost a litt1e more, but they will certainly travel faster. lesson23 a new house 新居i had a letter from my sister yesterday. she lives in nigeria. in her letter, she said that she would come to england next year. if she comes, she will get a surprise. we are now living in a beautiful new house in the country. work on it had begun before my sister left. the house was completed five months ago. in my letter, i told her that she could stay with us. the house has many large rooms and there is a lovely garden. it is a very modern house, so it looks strange to some people. it must be the only modern house in the district.lesson24 it could be worse 不幸中之万幸i entered the hotel managers office and sat down. i had just lost &50 and i felt very upset. i left the money in my room, i said, and its not there now. the manager was sympathetic, but he could do nothing. everyones losing money these days, he said. he started to complain about this wicked world but was interrupted by a knock at the door. a girl came in and put an envelope on his desk. it contained &5o. i found this outside this gentlemans room she said. well, i said to the manager, there is still some honesty in this world !lesson25 do the english speak english? 英国人讲的是英语吗？i arrived in london at last. the railway station was big, black and dark. i did not know the way to my hotel, so i asked a porter. i not only spoke english very carefully, 合肥天鹅湖畔项目可行性报告目 录一、合肥市宏观发展概要2（一） 合肥整体情况2（二）合肥城市发展3（三） 合肥市经济环境5（四）合肥市人口分析9（五） 合肥市未来规划9（六） 合肥市宏观发展总结11二、房地产政策研究12（一） 2009年全国性房地产政策12（二） 2009年合肥市房地产政策13三、合肥市房地产住宅市场发展研究15（一） 合肥市房地产发展15（二）合肥土地市场15（三） 合肥市房地产开发投资16（四） 合肥市房地产新开工面积分析16（五） 合肥市商品房销售情况分析17（六）合肥市未来住房需求研究21（七）合肥市房地产前景预测21四、合肥市政务区房地产住宅市场研究22（一）合肥房地产板块的划分22（二）2009年政务区房地产市场分析22（三） 政务区未来房地产展望25（四）政务区在售楼盘情况25（五）政务区房地产市场总结27五、合肥市高端市场研究27（一） 合肥别墅项目市场研究27（二）合肥高层高端项目市场研究34（三） 合肥高端消费者研究45六、项目地块概述48（一） 项目地块概况48（二） 项目地块区域环境分析49（三）项目地块分析52七、项目市场预测65（一）预测目的65（二）典型城市的启示65（三）项目比较选择的原则和依据66（四）商品住宅的选择比较66（五）项目普通公寓价格的推算67（六）项目近远期价格预测68一、合肥市宏观发展概要（一） 合肥整体情况合肥是安徽省省会，位于中国中部长江淮河之间、巢湖之滨，通过南淝河通江达海，具有承东启西、接连中原、贯通南北的重要区位优势。合肥市辖瑶海、庐阳、蜀山、包河4区和肥东、肥西、长丰3县，并赋予合肥高新技术产业开发区、合肥经济技术开发区、合肥新站综合试验区市级管理权限，2008年全市常住人口为486.74万人。（二）合肥城市发展由于政策的推动及紧邻长三角的区位优势，合肥正成为长三角组团城市之一。 越来越多的制造、电子、汽车等企业开始转移到合肥。机场、铁路、轻轨、主干线、经济开发区的建设，让合肥城市建设处于前所未有的高潮期。1、合肥市2006-2008年城市发展状况1.1 政策优势建立市政中心，简化工商业报批流程；为现阶段优势工业及优势商业提供市政配套支持；降低工商业检验标准。1.2 交通支持改造市中心城市主干道为八车道；修建市区高架道路；立项城市轻轨；改造合肥火车站容量；开通合肥-上海及江苏内动车组；预开通合肥-武汉、合肥-郑州动车组；修建新桥国际机场，预计2011年建成。1.3 工业增长合肥受到国际高档汽车配件制造商的青睐；合肥逐渐成为中国白色家电最大生产基地；鼓励信息电子产业从南方城市迁移至合肥。1.4 区位优势2008年合肥市被接纳为长三角城市，享有长三角城市发展待遇；合肥成为新兴的南北运输要点；全国经济发展重点从南北轴线变更为东西轴线。2、合肥市未来城市发展状况2.1 合肥市经济发展情况人均可支配收入年均增12%今后5年，沿海发达地区产业向中西部地区转移的速度加快，中部崛起战略在加速推进，为后发地区的发展提供了新的契机。这些都为合肥市进一步发挥已有的区位、交通、科技、产业和环境等优势，谋求更好更快发展提供了广阔的空间创造了条件。合肥市东向发展将取得新突破，以构建省会经济圈为起跳点，与长三角地区实现良性互动发展，成为沿海地区产业资本转移的首选地之一。利用外资质量和水平全面提升，开放型经济加速发展；新型流通业态、物流、旅游、会展、金融等产业发展水平进一步提高，基本建成区域性商贸物流中心、旅游会展中心和金融中心。通过“工业立市”战略的强化，合肥市基本形成优势产业格局。家电、汽车、装备制造等重点产业集群形成较强竞争力，培育千亿产业一个、500亿以上产业两至三个；电子信息、新材料、新能源等产业加速发展，高新技术产业增加值占全市工业增加值60%左右。开发园区发展实现新跨越，三大开发区综合实力继续提升，县区工业园区特色产业集群更具规模。农业多种功能得到开发，农业现代化进程进一步加快，实现城郊型农业向现代都市农业转变，合肥市未来的工业区主要集中在城东区域，目前正对城东居民进行大规模的拆迁安置，未来合肥市的工业产业产业会逐步的迁移到城东。合肥市未来5年主要奋斗目标是，到2012年，地区生产总值年均增长16%以上，人均生产总值达到6万元；财政收入年均增长15%以上；城镇居民人均可支配收入年均增长12%以上，农民人均纯收入年均增长13%。2.2 合肥市城市建设未来5年，合肥滨湖新区拓展区初步建成，基本建成区域综合交通枢纽和“141”城市框架体系，建成新桥国际机场、合肥港综合码头、合肥新铁路枢纽及合蚌高铁。 2008-2012的梦想：高速铁路新桥机场相继建成经过今后5年的发展后，合肥市现代化滨湖大城市建设初见成效。基本建成区域综合交通枢纽和“141”城市框架体系。建成新桥国际机场、合肥港综合码头、合肥新铁路枢纽及合蚌高铁，完成一环六射高速公路建设；建成以快速路、一级主干路组成的城市快速通道体系，城市道路交通系统更加完善。“141”组团联动发展，中心城区品位明显提升，四大组团发展能力显著增强，滨湖新区拓展区初步建成。新农村建设全面推进，继续保持全省领先水平。3、小结从长期来看，合肥往四面发展的格局不会变。政务区在快速发展，新兴的板块在未来长期预期也是有发展潜力的。对于城市发展其他的板块来看，滨湖新区将是未来合肥重点提升的新兴区块；政务区将是政府重点打造的商务办公区，其未来的市政配套、生活配套等都将是合肥市最好的。（三） 合肥市经济环境1、 gdp及固定资产投资合肥经济增长速度远高于全国平均水平，不考虑物价上涨因素，2001-2007年，合肥gdp累计增长258%，平均年增长率高达20.0%，远高于同期全国平均水平的14.4%，合肥2008年gdp达1664.84亿元。*（数据来源：合肥统计局）固定资产投资持续增加，推动经济增长，固定资产投资是推动经济增长的重要因素，合肥固定资产投资持续增长，将为合肥未来经济增长提供重要的推动力。*（数据来源：合肥统计局）2、 人均gdp2008年合肥人均gdp为34482元（折合美元为4724美元），其增长率为22.6%，增长速度远远高于国内平均速度。*（数据来源：合肥统计局）3、 城镇居民人均年可支配性收入及年消费性支出合肥城镇居民人均年可支配性收入连续增长，2001-2008年，合肥人均居民收入累计增长129%，2008年增长率达到16.1%。*（数据来源：合肥统计局）合肥城镇居民收入增长推动消费增加，2001-2008年，合肥城镇居民平均每人全年消费性支出累计增长110%，2008年增长率达到18.3%。*（数据来源：合肥统计局）【盛世观点】：合肥居民的收入及支出较低，但是近几年来增幅较快，随着居民收入的提升，合肥居民对居住的需求也将提升。4、 安徽省内gdp比较合肥是安徽省gdp总量最高的城市，与其他城市相比拥有绝对优势。经初步统计，合肥2008年的gdp总量达到排名第二与第三的总和。*（数据来源：合肥统计局）5、 长三角省会城市比较5.1 长三角省会城市gdp及收入比较由于2008年合肥市被接纳为长三角城市，享有长三角城市发展待遇，我们选取长三角各省省会城市进行对比：2007年合肥整体经济实力在长三角各个省会代表城市属于最弱的，2008年合肥在各方面已经超过南昌。 *（数据来源：各城市统计局）5.2 2006-2008年长三角省会城市gdp及收入增幅比较在2006至2008年三年内，合肥的城市综合实力增长速度普遍高与其他城市，并且呈稳步上涨态势。尤其是2007年，合肥成为全国城市经济能力增幅最快的省会城市，2008年与长三角其他省会城市相比，合肥的增幅仍然是最大的。（四）合肥市人口分析2008年合肥市常住人口为501万人，外来人口为14.26万人，占总人口的2.84%，可见合肥的人口构成以当地人为主。而2008年合肥市高校在校学生人数约30.02万人，占合肥总人口的6.03%，是合肥人口的重要组成部分。 作为中部省份，合肥的农业人口仍占据大部分比例，但是正在逐年减少。年度户籍人口（万人）非农业人口（万人）非农业人口所占比例2001442.16146.8133.2%2002448.08153.5434.3%2003456.6160.1835.1%2004444.68168.9638.0%2005455.7184.9140.6%2006469.85196.1641.7%2007478.9203.7342.5%2008486.7421043.1%（五） 合肥市未来规划1、 合肥城市发展定位根据合肥市城市总体规划(2006-2020年),合肥市的定位为： 安徽省政治、经济、文化中心。 全国重要的科研教育区域。 现代制造业基地、高新技术产业基地、现代服务业基地。 区域性交通枢纽。 区域旅游会展、商贸物流、金融信息中心。2、合肥规划整体目标 合肥分为八个城市分区：老城区、东区、北区、西区、南区、经开区、高新区和滨湖新区。 市中心城区人口规模近期2010年，中心城区城市人口300万人；远期2020年，中心城区城市人口360万人； 市中心城区城市建设用地规模近期2010年，中心城区建设用地300平方公里，人均建设用地100平方米；远期2020年，中心城区建设用地360平方公里，人均建设用地100平方米。3、 城市分区 合肥城镇空间组织结