国际贸易专业外文翻译--中国独立的货币政策，汇率制度和资本帐户.docx

monetary policy independence, the currency regime,and the capital account in chinaauthor：eswar s. prasadnationality: americasourse and type: paper presented at the conference on chinas exchange rate policy peterson institute for international economics http:/journal time: october 19, 2007， p7-13chinas currency policy has of course received the most attention of late. whether the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate is part of a deliberate mercantilist strategy to promote export-led growth has been the subject of intense debate. on the one hand, china has had a relatively stable exchange rate relative to the u.s. dollar since 1995. this policy was sustained even through the asian crisis when the temptations for devaluing the currency were great. on the other hand, during this decade the exchange rate has been kept from appreciating only by massive intervention in the exchange market. in tandem with sustained high export growth and a burgeoning current account surplus that nearly hit 10 percent of gdp in 2006, this has been seen as prima facie evidence of a grossly undervalued currency. as discussed in more detail below, one of the principal concerns is that the lack of exchange rate flexibility not only reduces monetary policy independence, it also hampers banking sector reforms. the inability of the pbc to use interest rates as a primary tool of monetary policy implies that credit growth has to be controlled by blunter and non-market-oriented tools, including targets/ceilings for credit growth as well as “non-prudential administrative measures”.chinas approach to exchange rate poliy and capital account liberalization may be indicative of a desire to maintain stability on the domestic and external fronts while opening up to trade and financial flows. and the large stock of foreign exchange reserves resulting from these policies may serve as insurance against vulnerabilities arising from a weak banking system.but there comes a point when the policy distortions needed to maintain this approach could generate imbalances, impose potentially large welfare costs, and themselves become a source of instability.to begin with, why is the exchange rate regime of such importance? after all, the exchange rate is just a relative price. moreover, economic models tell us that macroeconomic fundamentals will eventually win out in terms of what really matters- the real exchange rate rather than the nominal exchange rate. that is, if the nominal exchange rate doesnt adjust in response to changes in fundamentals, relative price levels will adjust. but a combination of policies such as financial repression and a closed capital account can delay this adjustment for a significant period. while this can boost export competitiveness by keeping the exchange rate undervalued, there can be subtle indirect costs, in terms of both economic welfare and reduced policy flexibility in responding to various shocks. what are the costs of an inflexible exchange rate? the schematic diagram below lays out some of the connections, although this should of course be recognized as a heuristic diagram that ignores many of the complexities in the relationships depicted here. the main point is that an inflexible exchange rate, while not the root cause of imbalances in the economy, requires a large set of distortionary policies for its maintenance over long periods. it is these distortions thatthrough multiple channelshurt economic welfare and could, over time, shift the balance of risks in the economy.lack of exchange rage flexibility complicates macro policy and reformsmaking the right connectionsan independent interest rate policy is a key tool for improving domestic macroeconomic management and promoting stable growth and low inflation. as the chinese economy becomes more complex and market-oriented, it will become harder to manage through command and control methods as in the past. and, as it becomes more exposed to global influences through its rising trade and financial linkages to the world economy, it will also become more exposed to external shocks. monetary policy is typically the first line of defense against macroeconomic shocks, both internal and external. hence, having an independent monetary policy is important for overall macroeconomic stability. monetary policy independence is, however, a mirage if the central bank is mandated to attain an exchange rate objective. capital controls, which prevent money from moving in an out of an economy easily, do insulate monetary policy to some extent. but capital controls are notoriously leaky (the unofficial flows into and out of china itself are ample testimony to this) and tend to become increasingly less effective over time. thus, a flexible exchange rate is a prerequisite for an independent monetary policy. however, opening the capital account ahead of introducing greater flexibility in the exchange rate could pose serious problems in the future. history is replete with examples of countries that opened up the capital account while things looked good, even while keeping their exchange rates fixed, and were then subject to large exchange rate depreciations when they were subject to sudden stops and/or reversals of capital flows. marvin goodfriend and i have argued that china should adopt an explicit inflation objectivea long-run range for the inflation rate and an explicit acknowledgement that low inflation is the priority for monetary policyas a new anchor for monetary policy . an inflation objective, coupled with exchange rate flexibility, would work best to stabilize domestic demand in response to internal and external macroeconomic shocks. indeed, focusing on inflation stability is the best way for monetary policy to achieve broader objectives such as financial stability and high employment growth. over time, the inflation objective would provide a basis for currency flexibility. thus, exchange rate reform will be seen as a key component of an overall reform strategy that is in chinas short- and long-term interests.two related points are worth noting. independent interest rate policy requires a flexible exchange rate, not a one-off revaluation or a sequence of revaluations. a flexible exchange rate buffers some of the effects of interest rate changes, especially in terms of offsetting the temptation for capital to flow in or out in response to such changes. a one-off revaluation can solve this problem temporarily, but could create even more problems subsequently if interest rate actions in a different direction become necessary, or if investor sentiment and the pressures for capital inflows or outflows shift. this is why the focus on a large one-time revaluation to atone for past sins doesnt get us anywhere,either in terms of the policy debate or in terms of effecting reforms that really matter. another crucial point is that exchange rate flexibility should not be confused with full opening of the capital account. an open capital account would allow the currency to float freely and be market-determined. but the exchange rate can be made flexible and the objective of monetary policy independence achieved even if the capital account is not fully open. indeed, as noted above, there are good reasons why it is preferable to move more gradually on capital account opening than on exchange rate flexibility. a free float with an open capital account is a useful long-term objective, but is not a high priority in the short run.中国独立的货币政策，汇率制度和资本帐户作者：普拉萨德国籍：美国出处及类别：在彼得森国际经济研究所关于中国人民币汇率政策的会议上提交的论文http:/发表时间及页码：2007年10月19日，p7-13中国的货币政策当然是最近以来最受瞩目的。维持固定汇率是否是部分重商主义者蓄意的战略以促进出口导向型增长，一直受到激烈的辩论。一方面，自1995年以来中国一直采取相对美元较为稳定的汇率。甚至在亚洲（金融）危机时期人民币有巨大的贬值诱惑时这项政策也仍然维持。另一方面，这十年期间汇率一直保持升值，而仅仅通过大规模干预外汇市场。随着出口的持续高速增长和经常帐户盈余的不断膨胀，在2006年几乎达到国内生产总值的10%，这一直被视为严重低估货币的初步证据。 正如下文更加详细的讨论，（我们）关注的主要问题之一是：汇率灵活性的缺失不仅降低了货币政策的独立性，而且阻碍了银行业的改革。中国人民银行无法把利率作为一个主要的货币政策工具，这意味着，信贷增长将由粗放和非以市场为导向的工具所控制，包括信贷增长的目标/上限以及“非审慎的行政措施”。中国对汇率政策和资本帐户自由化的方式可能表明了一个愿望，即在贸易开放和资本流动时维护国内、外的稳定。而由此带来的大量的外汇储备积累可能是作为由脆弱的银行体系造成的漏洞的保险。但有一点，当扭曲的政策需要维持时，这种方式会产生不平衡，潜在地强加了巨大的福利代价，自己也成为不稳定的根源。首先，为什么汇率制度如此重要？毕竟，汇率只是一个相对的价格。此外，经济模型告诉我们，宏观经济基本面最终取决于真正重要的-实际汇率，而非名义汇率。也就是说，如果名义汇率不跟随经济基本面的调整而调整，（则）相对价格水平就会调整。但是政策的结合如金融压抑和封闭的资本帐户可以在一定时间内延迟这种调整。虽然通过保持低估的汇率可以提高出口竞争力，（但）在应付各种冲击时会产生微妙的间接成本，以经济福利和政策灵活性的减少的形式。 不灵活的汇率将会带来哪些代价？下面的示意图列出了一些联系，尽管这应当被认为是启发式图，因为这里的描述忽略了许多复杂的关系。主要的一点是一个非灵活性的汇率，而不是经济中不平衡的根源，需要大量的扭曲性政策来长时间的维护。正是这些扭曲-通过多种渠道-损害经济福利并可能随着时间的推移转移经济中风险的平衡。汇率缺乏灵活性使宏观调控政策和改革复杂化资源分配不当，出口，投资带动不平衡增长国内宏观管理更困难利率政策不独立风险1. 短期通胀和经济过热2. 中期通货紧缩+新增不良贷款3. 资产价格泡沫4. 如果贸易顺差加大，将受到贸易制裁非灵活的汇率经常项目巨大盈余，更多的资本流入金融业改革更复杂建立正确的联系更好的宏观经济管理货币政策具有独立性均衡稳定的增长金融业发展和改革灵活的汇率安全的资本账户开放 一个独立的利率政策是改善国内宏观经济管理、促进稳定增长和低通货膨胀的一个重要工具。随着中国经济变得更加复杂、更加以市场为导向，和过去一样通过指挥和控制的方法去管理将变的更加困难。通过贸易的增加和与世界经济加强金融联系，使它