《风能的未来》PPT课件.ppt

The Future of Wind NARUC Staff Subcommittee on Accounting and Finance October 13, 2008 Dr. Lola Infante Manager, Generation Fuels and Market Analysis The Future of Wind Current trends Observed Drivers Future(s) Future 1: “Improved” BAU = 100 GW Future 2: Aggressive policy = 200 GW Future 3: Revolutionary change = 300+ GW Uncertainties The Future of Wind Current Trends Exceeding expectations Renewable Energy Net Generation - 2007 * Includes wind, solar, biomass and other non-hydropower renewable energy sources. * Includes generation by batteries, chemicals, pitch, and purchased steam. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 2007 data Growth of renewable generation Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration Growth of wind generation Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 2008 data: Jan-June +1.1%/yr +31%/yr Annual growth Growth of Wind - Capacity Source: Ventyx, Inc. The Velocity Suite 2008 data: As of September. All other years: as of December Growth of Wind - Capacity Source: Ventyx Inc., The Velocity Suite 2008 data: As of September. All other years: as of December Annual Capacity Additions Annual growth Wind capacity in the states Source: Ventyx Inc., The Velocity Suite Wind in the states Source: Ventyx Inc., The Velocity Suite; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration Main Actors Market Structure Source: Ventyx Inc., The Velocity Suite; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration The Future of Wind Observed Drivers Policy State RPS PTC Economic environment (increased cost-competitiveness) Changing climate Wind Power Resources Source: NREL, Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the United States 28 States U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration Current level includes projects under construction Future 1 - BAU Source: Ventyx Inc., The Velocity Suite; Data as of October 2008 Expected online schedule of existing wind projects State RPS total renewable requirements by 2020 = 100-120 GW Future 1: Challenges $160 billion by 2020 Transmission Future 1: Drivers and challenges Source: Ventyx Inc., The Velocity Suite, data as of July 2008 Includes all renewables. Operating includes projects under construction Transmission Access for Renewable Energy Source: Global Energy Decisions, Inc., The Velocity Suite Future 2 Aggressive Policy “200 GW Scenario” +20% Federal RPS Expansion of existing RPS Climate policy-driven renewable expansion Future 2 Aggressive Policy “200 GW Scenario” 200 GW Scenario 18% by 2025* *Based on AEO 2008 total capacity forecast (All Renewables) Future 2 Challenges Transmission Integration Manufacturing REC markets Future 3 Energy revolution “300+ GW Scenario” Pickens Plan: 22+% wind penetration by 2020 Google Plan: 380 GW of wind by 2030 Future 3 Energy revolution “300+ GW Scenario” 300+ GW Scenario 28% by 2025* *Based on AEO 2008 total capacity forecast (All Renewables) Future 3 Energy revolution “300+ GW Scenario” 300+ GW Scenario 3 GW 15 GW 22 GW No experience to learn from Future 3 Challenges and Contingencies Transmission Integration Manufacturing REC markets Technology (again) Cost (again) Economic fundamentals (again) Necessary but not sufficient anymore The Future of Wind Remaining Uncertainties Finance: access to and cost of capital Political and social will: how much is enough? Climate: are renewables the interim answer? Technological change: the LT future will depend on the evolution of wind (and other) technologies and cost Economic fundamenta