Chap019财务报表分析.ppt

INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Copyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McGraw-Hill/Irwin CHAPTER 19 Financial Statement Analysis 财务报表分析 1 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-2 Financial statement analysis can be used to discover mispriced securities. 可以被用于发现被错误定价的证券 Financial accounting data are widely available, but Accounting earnings and economic earnings are not always the same thing! 重要：会计盈利和经济盈利不总是一样的 Financial Statement Analysis 财务报表分析 2 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-3 Income Statement: 损益表 Profitability over time Balance Sheet: 平衡表 Financial condition at a point in time Statement of Cash Flows: 现金流量表 Tracks the cash implications of transactions. Financial Statements财务报表 3 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-4 Table 19.1 Consolidated Statement of Income for Hewlett- Packard, 2009惠普公司的合并损益表 4 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-5 Table 19.2 Consolidated Balance Sheet for Hewlett-Packard, 2009惠普公司的合并资产负债表 5 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-6 Table 19.3 Statement of Cash Flows for Hewlett-Packard, 2009惠普公司的合并现金流量表 6 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-7 Accounting Versus Economic Earnings 会计利润和经济利润 Economic earnings经济利润 Sustainable cash flow that can be paid to stockholders without impairing productive capacity of the firm 投资者得到的现金流，不伤害公司的持续 发展，或者是真实利润 Accounting earnings会计利润 Affected by conventions regarding the valuation of assets，会计报表反映出来的 经济利润，受到各类计价方式和其他因素 的影响 7 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-8 Profitability Measures盈利能力度量 ROE measures profitability for contributors of equity capital. After-tax profit/book value of equity ROA measures profitability for all contributors of capital. EBIT/total assets 净资产收益率ROE，资本收益率ROA 息税前利润EBIT（Interest rate, Tax) 8 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-9 Past vs. Future ROE历史与未来 ROE is a key determinant of earnings growth.净资产收益是收益增长的重要指标 Past profitability does not guarantee future profitability.过去不等于未来 Security values are based on future profits. Expectations of future dividends determine todays stock value. 证券价值由未来盈利决定 9 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-10 Financial Leverage and ROE 财务杠杆与ROE ROE can differ from ROA because of leverage.财务杠杆导致两者不同 Leverage makes ROE more volatile.财务 杠杆可以使得ROE不稳定 Let t=tax rate and r=interest rate, then: 10 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-11 Financial Leverage and ROE 财务杠杆与ROE If there is no debt or ROA = r, ROE will simply equal ROA(1 - t). If ROA r, the firm earns more than it pays out to creditors and ROE increases. If ROA k, value is added to the firm. （资产收益率-资本机会成本）*资本投资 ，也称为剩余收入 25 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-26 Example 19.4 Wal-Mart沃尔玛案例 In 2009, Wal-Marts cost of capital was 5.9%. Its ROA was 9.6% and its capital base was $115 billion. Wal-Marts EVA = (0.096-0.059) x $115 billion = $4.25 billion 26 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-27 Accounting Differences会计差异 Inventory Valuation存货估值 Depreciation贬值 Inflation and Interest Expense通货膨胀 Fair Value Accounting公允价值会计 Quality of Earnings盈余质量 International Accounting Conventions国际 会计惯例 Comparability Problems可比性问题 27 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-28 International Accounting Differences Reserves many other countries allow more flexibility in use of reserves 预留准备金 Depreciation US allows separate tax and reporting presentations 折旧 Intangibles treatment varies widely 无形资产 28 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-29 Figure 19.2 Adjusted Versus Reported Price- Earnings Ratios调整市盈率/报告市盈率 29 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 19-30 The Graham Technique格雷厄姆技术 Rules for stock selection: Purchase common sto