中国-加拿大经济互补性研究(英文).pdfVIP

canada-china economic complementarities study economic partnership working group may 2012 2 | p a g e 1. executive summary 2. introduction 3. overview of economic bilateral relations 4. sector analysis a. agriculture and agri-food (including fish and seafood) b. clean technology and environmental goods and services c. machinery and equipment d. natural resources and derived products e. services f. textiles and related goods g. transportation infrastructure and aerospace 5. conclusions 6. annex 1: snapshot of the canadian and chinese economies 7. annex 2: canada-china trade, investment and related consultative and cooperative mechanisms table of contents 3 | p a g e executive summary following the june 2010 meeting between canadian prime minister stephen harper and chinese president hu jintao in canada, officials from both countries jointly undertook a study to provide an analytical basis to evaluate potential bilateral economic complementarities in a selected range of sectors. economic complementarities are defined as the interests and requirements of one country that can be matched with a capacity to supply in the other country. the studys completion helps to set the stage for the two countries to launch exploratory discussions on further deepening our trade and economic relations, as announced by the two leaders during prime minister harpers most recent visit to china in february 2012. canada and china are strong trading nations. for both, external trade is integral to past and future economic growth. today, china is canadas second-largest trading partner,1 while canada ranks 13th among chinas trading partners.2 in addition to increasing two-way trade in goods, services and investment, people-to-people ties have never been stronger, with substantial annual increases in the number of visitors and students to each others country. extensive government-to-government cooperation is also reflected across a broad range of priority areas. the study covers seven sectorsreflecting specific interests on one side or the otherin which growth opportunities appear to be strong. while not exhaustive in scope, the study provides a broad basis of analysis on bilateral economic complementarities. as with any comprehensive trading relationship, canada-china trade and investment relations can be enhanced. the study therefore also examines barriers and challenges to growth in these sectors. key findings of the study are: agriculture and agri-food (including fish and seafood) canada and china are both significant producers and exporters of agriculture and agri-food products, with distinct supply and demand profiles. growth opportunities extend well beyond two-way trade in goods and investment. government and industry on both sides are increasingly cooperating on technical and scientific exchanges to assist china in addressing domestic challenges and to advance third-market opportunities for both countries. on the challenges side, trade barriers include tariffs, regulatory measures (e.g. sanitary and 1 goods only. according to canadian statistics. 2 goods only. according to chinese statistics, and includes the european union (eu) and association of southeast asian nations (asean) as a trading bloc. 4 | p a g e phytosanitary measures) and delays in resolving market access issues arising from administrative capacity constraints. clean technology and environmental goods and services the clean technology sector is an innovative and rapidly growing sector globally. the canadian side is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises (smes), which, despite their technological innovations and commercially viable solutions, often face challenges related to their relatively small size, such as access to capital and concerns regarding intellectual property rights protection. china has a keen interest in this sector, highlighting in its most recent five year plan the role of clean technology in addressing growing domestic environmental challenges. in addition to bilateral trade in clean technology goods and services, canadian and chinese partnerships could help meet the increasing worldwide demand for cleantech solutions. machinery and equipment two-way trade in this sector has exhibited strong growth over the last decade. canadian technology and know-how complements chinese production needs and demand, especially in the area of agricultural and mining equipment as well as related services. advancing cooperation in this sector would offer canadian companies increased export opportunities. concerns about intellectual property protection, standards and certification requirements, and remaining applied tariffs may be hindering growth in bilateral trade in this sector. natural resources and derived products canada and china have abundant natural resources and are leading global traders in this sector. china is facing supply-side pressures when it comes to certain commodities, making it difficult to meet the demands of its rapidly growing economy. canada is well positioned as a reliable supplier to meet chinas needs and to provide innovative solutions for the sustainable use and efficient management of chinas natural resources. in canada, chinas growing interest in natural resources is adding to the diversity of investment sources available to develop capital- intensive canadian natural resources projects. to take advantage of complementarities in this sector, further improvements could be made to the clarity, efficiency and predictability of inward investment-related regulations, the compatibility of certification systems and the expediency of approval processes on goods such as equipment. services 5 | p a g e services are an important and growing component of the canadian and chinese economies. they represent an essential source of growth in a competitive, knowledge-based world market. while the scope of services trade between the two countries is significant, there is potential for this relationship to grow even further. chinas steady economic growth and projected infrastructure expansion will likely lead to strong demand for key services sectors in which canada has leading expertise. chinas services sector is growing rapidly, and canada is able to export best practices that would be helpful to such a developing industry. furthermore, the people-to-people connections that already exist between canada and china will further facilitate bilateral trade in services. textiles and related products canadian textile and apparel manufacturers are increasingly focusing on high value-added products and depend on sales to export markets to remain viable. china has made significant advancements in the textile and apparel industries over recent years, becoming a world leader in some subsectors. chinas current five year plan highlights the importance of continued textile industry development. canada and china have complementary capacities in textiles, each producing goods for different market segments. specifically, canadas strength in engineered textiles can be incorporated into chinas value chains to serve both its domestic market and global markets, while canadian branded and technical apparel product offerings can serve chinas increasingly discerning customers. similarly, chinas wide variety of textiles and apparel can be used to meet canadian demand in sectors where there are no longer canadian manufacturers. transportation infrastructure and aerospace these two sectors occupy a strategic place in the two countries economies, not least because of the critical role they play in facilitating the movement of goods and people. opportunities exist for canada and china to collaborate on the development of safer systems for chinas growing transportation infrastructure networks. given their complementary expertise, canada and china could also cooperate on infrastructure projects in third-country markets. canada is a world leader in aerospace technology and research and development capacity. these strengths, combined with the canadian industrys diversified manufacturing and internationally recognized regulations, are assets that can complement chinese needs and goals to develop world-class aerospace products. conclusion 6 | p a g e since prime minister stephen harper and president hu jintao met in june 2010, the bilateral economic relationship has continued to gain momentum, with trade and investment expanding rapidly. robust growth in bilateral merchandise trade was sustained throughout the recent global economic crisis. the stock of foreign direct investment into canada from china reached approximately us$10.7 billion at the end of 2011, representing a 36-fold increase in the last 10 years. chinese statistics put the stock of canadian foreign direct investment in china at approximately us$8.3 billion in 2011. notwithstanding these impressive gains, bilateral trade and investment represent a surprisingly small proportion of each countrys total international activity. there is room for much growth. this study provides a starting point for bilateral discussions on getting there. 7 | p a g e 2. introduction 2.1 overview canada and china have a long-standing and healthy bilateral relationship. the two countries have a shared interest in strengthening the bilateral economic relationship through increased two-way trade in goods and services, investment, and people-to-people and cultural exchanges. during canadian prime minister stephen harpers first visit to china in 2009, the two governments issued a joint statement highlighting the strong trade and economic complementarities between the two countries. the leaders further agreed to enhance cooperation in order to increase bilateral trade and investment. since that visit, chinese president hu jintao visited canada in june 2010 and prime minister stephen harper returned to china for a second visit in february 2012. in between, over 30 ministerial-level bilateral visits took place, supporting closer ties in key trade and investment portfolios. the canadian and chinese economies have both been exceptionally resilient in the face of the recent global financial crisis. these strengths have prompted closer mutual attention to the benefits of deepening trade and investment ties between the two countries. canadian and chinese officials collaborate regularly through a variety of bilateral trade and investment mechanisms, notably the annual joint economic and trade commission (jetc), which is a long-standing deputy minister/vice minister-level forum to discuss key canadian and chinese trade and investment issues. a more recent mechanism (2005), the strategic working group, brings together canadas deputy ministers of foreign affairs, international trade and natural resources, and chinas vice ministers of foreign affairs, commerce and the national development and reform commission, to discuss cross-cutting economic and political priorities. both forums met in ottawa in 2011. in june 2010, canadian prime minister stephen harper and chinese president hu jintao instructed officials to explore means of deepening the canada-china economic relations by establishing a working group under the jetc. once established, the economic partnership working group launched a joint study to examine in greater depth bilateral trade and investment complementarities and potential. 8 | p a g e 2.2 objectives and structure of the study the economic complementarities study represents an important step toward strengthening canada-china economic relations. by examining the current status of bilateral trade and investment relations in selected sectors, the study provides an analytical basis for discussions on how to deepen the relationship. the study analyzes seven sectors, examining the complementarities between various aspects of the canadian and chinese economies. the seven sectors included in this study are: agriculture and agri-food (including fish and seafood); clean technology and environmental goods and services; machinery and equipment; natural resources and derived products; services; textiles and related products; and transportation infrastructure and aerospace. the first part of the study provides: (i) an overview of the structure and key characteristics of the chinese and canadian economies; (ii) a description of trade and economic cooperation; and (iii) a description and assessment of historical and recent patterns in bilateral trade and investment and likely future trends. the second part of the study analyzes the seven different sectors. each sectoral analysis includes an overview of the sector in each country, a description of bilateral trade patterns, highlights of ongoing cooperation, a discussion of challenges, and a review of complementarities and opportunities for growth. 2.3 methodology 2.3.1 bilateral trade and investment statistics data that describe canada-china trade and investment flows in this study are quoted in u.s. dollars, the most widely used currency for the settlement of international payments, to draw a comparative statistical analysis. national currencies have been converted using annual average exchange rates provided by domestic central banks over the relevant time period as described below: 9 | p a g e table 1: exchange rates used in the study (against us dollar) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 canadian dollar 1.548 1.570 1.401 1.301 1.211 1.134 1.074 1.066 1.141 1.029 0.989 chinese rmb 8.277 8.277 8.277 8.276 8.193 7.972 7.605 6.947 6.830 6.769 6.463 source: bank of canada and peoples bank of china it is common to observe differences in the level of trade each country reports in the context of bilateral trade statistics. canadian and chinese statistics are no exception in this regard. a number of factors account for the observed differences, including the shipment of goods to the trading partner via third economies and differing customs valuation methods. for the purposes of this study, imports from each country will be used to characterize canada-china bilateral trade wherever possible. in line with this methodology, the import statistics of each country will be summed up when identifying the value of two-way trade. as for stocks of foreign direct investment (fdi), inward investment data will be sourced from the destination country. unless otherwise noted, merchandise trade statistics have been sourced from the global trade atlas and reference data submitted by statistics canada and the general administration of customs of china. 2.3.2 domestic statistics values describing domestic sector features (i.e. output, sales) are quoted in the national currency of the country to which these statistics relate. these statistics are sourced from the leading national statistical agencies of each country. 10 | p a g e 3. economic overview 3.1 a foundation for deeper economic ties3 canada and china are important trading partners and economic players in the asia-pacific region as well as in the global marketplace. china is the worlds second-largest economy and most populous country, with 1.34 billion people. canada is the worlds 10th-largest economy, with a population of 34.5 million. with a combined gross domestic product (gdp) reaching us$9.0 trillion in 2011, the economic weight and relevance of both countries in the global economy is indisputable. for a snapshot of the canadian and chinese economies, see annex 1. canada and china are open and dynamic economies that depend on international trade and investment to stimulate growth. with trade-to-gdp ratios of 70.3% and 57.0% respectively, canada and china view trade expansion as a key priority.4 the trade relationship between the two countries has grown significantly over the past decade, largely reflecting comparative economic strengths and an expanding investment relationship. 3.2 canadian and chinese economies at a glance 3.2.1 the canadian economy canadas economy has shown steady growth, expanding at an average rate of 1.8% annually over the last 10 years. during the recent global economic crisis, the canadian economy was among the most resilient, fully recovering the output lost during the crisis by the third quarter of 2010. the international monetary fund forecasts that canada will continue to be a leader among major industrial economies in terms of average growth in the coming years, due mainly to its strong financial system and institutions, low inflation, sound fiscal management, and investments in knowledge and infrastructure. while canada continues to have a strong manufacturing base, representing 12.8% of real gdp, the share of services has risen steadily over the past decades, reaching 71.6% of real gdp in 2011. a distinctive feature of the canadian economy lies in the importance of its primary sector, particularly in terms of its contribution to the countrys total exports. agriculture and agri-food, energy, forestry and mining account for over 50% of canadas total exports. 3 data in this section are sourced from statistics canada and the national bureau of statistics of china. 4 ratio calculated over the 2001-2010 period. 11 | p a g e 3.2.2 the chinese economy over the last decade, the expansion of chinas economy has been particularly remarkable, at an average annual rate of 10.5% from 2001 to 2010. this growth has been fuelled in part by the strengthening of its manufacturing base and exports and has been accompanied by accelerated urbanization, rapid infrastructure development and rising per capita income levels. going forward, chinas economy will be driven increasingly by domestic consumption, which will be bolstered by supportive labour market conditions and other policy efforts to raise household disposable income. while manufacturing will remain the largest sector of the chinese economy over the coming years, the country is committed to furthering the development of its services sector. 3.3 canad