经济增长与国际贸易-2.ppt

Chapter 10 International Trade and Economic Growth oThere is a great diversity among the developing countries in terms of their income per capita. oWhy are some countries so much poorer than others? nFor about 30 years after World War II trade policies in many developing countries were strongly influenced by the belief that the key to economic development was creation of a strong manufacturing sector. pThe best way to create a strong manufacturing sector was by protecting domestic manufacturers from international competition. Introduction Introduction Table 1: Gross Domestic Product Per Capita, 1999 (dollars) Definition steel increase 3. Trade: Both reduce 4. Welfare: Better off Steel IR Growth Rice P1 P2C1 C2 EE Growth in a Small Country 1. Relative Price: no change 2. Production: rice increase; steel reduce 3. Trade: Both increase 4. Welfare: Better off EE Growth Steel Rice P1 P2 C1 C2 Summary(small country) oRybczyski Theorem(罗勃津斯基定理 )： 在商品相对价格不变的情况下，某 种生产要素的增长会使密集使用该要 素的商品生产扩大，使密集使用其他 要素的商品生产缩小。 Case Study:“Dutch Disease” oWhen the Netherlands developed natural gas fields under the North Sea in 1970s, a lot resources of the country were attracted to this industry. So that the manufacturing sector suffered. Similar problems happened in Britain, Norway, Australia, and Mexico. This case is usually called”Dutch Disease” oReason: nresources were attracted to gas industry because of higher profits nExport of natural resource appreciation foreign demand for traditional exports reduced . IR Growth in a Large Country oRelative price of steel drop oProduction: Steel increase Rice uncertain oTrade: Uncertain oWelfare Better than small country Steel Rice Small country Large country A B C EE Growth in a Large Country oRelative price of steel Up oProduction: Rice increase Steel increase oTrade: Export increase &import reduce oWelfare better than before- growth, but worse than small country Steel Rice Small country Large country A B C A special case: “Immiserizing Growth“ oDuring the 1950s,some analysts argued that: the export-biased growth by poor nations would worsen their terms of trade so that they would be worse off than if they hadnt grown at all. This situation is known as “Immiserizing Growth” oExample ：Latin American countries in 30s Economic Model Three conditions: ostrong export-biased growth oLarge country othe world demand for this product is inelastic. steel rice Summary oH-O model interpret the role of resource in trade:Country tend to export goods that are inten