政府统计中的软统计及体系建设与发展问题.ppt

政府统计中的软统计及体系建设与发展问 题 Outline Development Background of Soft Data Statistics 软数据统计发展的背景 Soft data statistics in the statistical development of Beijing 北京市统计发展过程中的软数据统计 Analysis on development demand of soft data statistics in the international metropolitan statistics of Beijing 北京市国际大都市统计中的软数据统计发展需求分析 Development and construction of soft data statistics in the international metropolitan statistical system of Beijing 北京市国际大都市统计体系中的软数据统计发展建设 In reality, the statistical function is actually not only the post-event statistics of different activities, but the active influence of the pre-event statistical function will also mean a new change in the statistical function in terms of statistical ideology. By means of human subject empirical assessment, subjective rational exploration and measurement, activity feature classification and behavioral feature classification, the activity behavioral statistics, value conception statistics, development potential statistics, proper relation statistics, integrated evaluation statistics, etc enhances the human measurement of the quantification extent and quantification relation of objective existence and development and extends and elevates the application of statistical instruments. 最新发展的许多事实表明，统计的作用确实不仅仅是各种活动的事后统计，事前的统 计作用能否产生积极影响，在统计思想上也意味着对统计功能的一种新变换。活动行 为统计、价值观统计、发展潜力统计、适度关系统计、综合评价统计等，借助人们主 观经验判断、主观理性挖掘评测、活动特征分类、行为特征分类等方式方法，增强人 们关于客观存在和发展的定量程度和定量关系的测度，扩展和提升统计工具的使用。 针对今天统计发展的现实，我觉得这些统计值得总结和规范发展，因此，本文提出专 题的研究，并把这些统计统称为软数据统计。 I. Development Background of Soft Data Statistics 软数据统计发展的背景 In view of the governmental statistics, the development and cooperation of soft data statistics is extremely crucial for combination with the construction of soft strength emphasized by the state. Today, the international competitiveness is the focus of initiating the national concern and study on the soft strength. The international competitiveness is composed of hard competitiveness and soft competitiveness. 从政府统计工作来看，如何与目前国家特别强调的软 实力建设结合起来，可能非常重要和关键的是软数据 统计的发展与配合。今天的国际竞争力，是引发国家 软实力关注和研究的集中点。国际竞争力由硬竞争力 和软竞争力组成。 Soft competitiveness is mainly the statistics and evaluation of the economic institution, economic policy, environment, market, human resource, social security, information, globalization, value conception, culture, education idea, risk consciousness, etc. 软竞争力主要是对经济制度、经济政策、环境、市场、人 才、社会保障、信息化、全球化、价值观、文化、教育观 念、风险意识等的统计测评。软竞争力与硬竞争力的关系 越来越密切，前者成为后者的重要解释因素和管理因素。 To take the lead in the world in constructing the internationalize metropolis, Beijing must attach great importance to the construction of soft data statistics, including the integration with the governmental statistical system and enhancement of the active function of the governmental statistics in the economic and social development. 北京国际化大都市建设过程中，如果走在世界的前列，必 须重视软数据统计的建设，包括如何融入现有政府统计体 系之中，增强政府统计对经济社会发展的积极作用。 II. Soft data statistics in the statistical development of Beijing 北京市统计发展过程中的软数据统计 Beijing Municipality has developed to a great extent, which has reflected the innovative development in various aspects, especially the construction and development of the governmental soft data statistics. For instance, the “Beijing Social Emotion and Public Opinion Survey Network” 进入新世纪，北京市政府统计工作有了很大的发展，许多方面体现创新性发展，其中 最为突出的是政府软数据统计的建设和发展，例如建立“北京市社情民意调查网” 。 Based on the social emotion and public opinion survey, Beijing has also introduced the satisfaction statistical analysis model and method. Especially, in combination with the telephone survey system and relevant statistical soft calculation system, it can resolve various hot issues. 在社情民意统计调查基础上，引入满意度统计分析模型和方法，特别是与电话辅助调 查系统和相应统计软件运算的系统结合，可以解决现实经济社会发展过程中倍受企业 界、政府部门和学术研究界关注的各种热点问题，以及针对一些目标的满意度的测评 ，产生了非常好的作用，展示了统计的新作用，也是统计以快速、系统、客观、深刻 反映实际存在的统计研究的发展方向。 In addition, under the arrangement of the national statistical survey system, there are also the enterprise prosperity survey and some special questionnaire surveys. 此外，在国家统计调查系统安排下，还有企业景气调查，以及一些专题的问卷调查。 总体上看，北京市统计局软数据统计调查和分析研究，与事后的硬数据统计内容相比 ，其发展还没有被重视，统计工作不固定，也没有长期统计数据的积累概念，更没有 与现有硬数据统计体系的配合与融合成新的统计体系的趋向。 III.Analysis on development demand of soft data statistics in the international metropolitan statistics of Beijing 北京市国际大都市统计中的软数据统计发展需求分析 Beijing International Metropolitan Statistical System is a public statistical system oriented for the functions of Beijing municipal governmental system mainly for the statistics of economic operation and development and the social status and development. For a long period of time, the governmental statistics has been the post-event statistics possibly due to the conventional consciousness that such statistics is scientific and regular, while the soft data statistics seems to be incomparable with it. Like the development process of market economy, it needs to be technically supported as well as to be promoted by the newer and bigger demands. Will the governmental statistics need soft data statistics? What are the main demands? These are the important issues that we need first to study constantly and follow up in developing the statistics. 北京市国际大都市统计体系是在北京市政府系统功能定位下的公共统计体系，主要是经济运 行与经济发展的统计、社会现状与社会发展的统计。长期以来，政府统计是事后的统计，可 能比较重的传统意识是这种统计是科学的和规范的，而软数据统计似乎还不能与之相比。统 计事业的发展，与市场经济发展过程一样，她需要技术方法的供给水平支持，也需要新的更 大的需求的推动。政府统计到底需要不需要软数据统计，主要需求是什么？这些是我们发展 统计首先要不断研究和跟踪的重要问题。 With the support from the great development of information network technology, it shows increasingly active and strong development power. The unitary post-event statistics, i.e., the hard data statistics can no longer comply with the requirement of the times development, especially failing to meet the needs of the increasingly active and innovative economy and social development with emotional complex. 在当今信息网络技术大发展的支持下，显示出日益的活跃和强劲的发展力，单一的事后统计 即硬数据统计，已经远远不适应时代发展的要求，特别是不能满足日益活跃创新的经济和情 感复杂社会发展的需要。 Following factors are important in promoting the governmental and social demands for soft data statistics. 1.For the monitoring and forecasting of economic performance and development, it is necessary to develop various surveys such as the enterprise investment intention survey and enterprise economic prosperity assessment and the relevant statistical index developed from such surveys. 2.The evaluation of institutional factors and policies and the relevant analytical studies of behavior shall be supported with the statistical survey through the qualified and quantified evaluation, classification comparison or associate behaviors explanation of the participants and interest parties in market economy. 3.The need to measure the behavior and activities of subjects, such as innovation activities and behavior of enterprises, becomes the important supplement to the R (2) elevate the reflecting capacity of the existing statistics; (3) satisfy the new requirements for the quantification of qualitative issues in the complicated economic and social development. 从我国现实发展情况看，三条线推动着政府统计体系中的软数 据统计发展。第一条线是提升现有统计数据质量的要求；第二 条线是提升现有统计反映能力；第三条线是满足经济社会发展 复杂系统中定性问题定量化的新要求。 In view of elevating the quality of existing statistical data, in addition to strengthening the control over the statistical data collection and introducing advanced technical method for statistical work, introduction of soft data statistics is also an important development direction. With the market economy developing further and market competition becoming fierce, the statistical information of micro enterprises and institutions is increasingly sensitive. Thus, total dependence on post-event statistics will not do. Based on the currently developed telecommunication technology and network technology, it is extremely easy to undertake the survey of soft data statistics. What are crucial are the construction of organization system for surveys and the design of statistical survey for different statistical issues under the particular background conditions of enterprises in contact or basic units for statistical work. The auxiliary technical measures for statistical survey can be the adoption of call-survey system or the special mobile reporting system for the statistical volunteers to provide statistical information service. In reality, with the modern developed telecommunication technology and network technology, we can absolutely find a new approach for the governmental statistics. Actually, we can explore a brand new way for construction and development of the governmental statistics: i.e., place the modern technology and information exchange mode as an important part of the governmental statistical system, accept the influence of information technology and network technology on social progress, separate properly the statistical purpose and realization mode and gradually transit to the new system construction with the census data as the standard, soft data statistics as the routine work, statistical statements as assistance and statistical calculation model as support. 从第一条线的提升现有统计数据质量看，除了加强统计数据搜集过程控制和引入先进统计技术 方法之外，引进软数据统计也是一个重要的发展方向。因为随着市场经济的深入和市场竞争的 激烈，微观企业单位的统计信息越来越敏感，因此，完全依靠事后统计是行不通的。 基于目前发达的电信技术和网络技术，非常容易开展软数据统计调查，关键是调查的组织系统 建设，以及针对不同的统计问题，深入联系企业或统计基层单位的具体背景条件的统计调查方 案设计，统计调查实现的技术辅助手段可以采用电话调查系统，或采用统计志愿者自动提供统 计信息服务的专用手机报告系统。 事实上，现代发展起来的电信技术和网络技术，完全可以使我们的政府统计体系走出一条新路 。实际上，我们可以探索一种全新的政府统计建设发展方式，即把现代技术和信息交流方式放 在政府统计体系建设的重要位置上，认可当代社会进步的信息技术和网络技术的影响，把统计 目的与实现的途径方式适当分开，逐步过渡以普查数据为基准，软数据统计为日常，统计报表 为辅，统计推算模型支持的新系统建设。 In view of elevating the reflecting capacity of the existing statistics, we shall extend to the statistics of economic and social activities based on the existing post-event statistical findings and generate a kind of system integrating the hard data statistics and soft data statistics as to raise the objective reflection capacity of the statistics about the realistic development features and law,. Enterprise innovation survey and enterprise prosperity survey are two typical examples as well as the centralize representation of the governmental statistical system in elevating the capacity of statistics to reflect the regional and industrial innovation and the short-term and long-term capacity of economic cycle. 从第二条线的提升现有统计反映能力看，我们要从现有的事 后统计结果为主，向经济社会活动本身的统计扩展，并形成 一种硬数据统计与软数据统计的有机结合体系，提高统计对 现实发展特征和规律的客观反映能力。企业创新调查和企业 景气调查是两个典型的例子，也是政府统计体系在提高统计 反映区域与产业创新能力和经济周期短期与长期能力的集中 体现。 In view of satisfying the new requirements for the quantification of qualitative issues in the complicated economic and social development, the governmental statistics should start with the target of raising the peoples living quality and cooperate with the mainstream work of the government to establish the routine soft data statistics. For instance, the regular statistical survey of resident culture, consciousness, ethics, value concept and their influential factors oriented for the construction of spiritual civilization is a kind of new statistics of reflecting objectively, scientifically and systematically the social existence and influence, which should be regularly constructed in accordance with the technical and time- sequential requirements of soft data statistics method and which shall lead the Chinese whole cultural propaganda and education system to the times of scientific analysis. The statistical survey of resident satisfaction is also the important statistical instrument for promoting the social progress and democratic supervision as well as the scientific base for elevating the governmental social security and scientific decision making. 从第三条线的满足经济社会发展复杂系统中定性问题定量化的 新要求看，政府统计应该从提高人民生活质量目标出发，配合 政府主流工作，建立日常性的软数据统计。例如以精神文明建 设为方向的居民文化、意识、伦理、价值观及其影响因素的定 期统计调查，是一种客观系统科学反映社会存在与影响的新型 统计，应该按照软数据统计方法技术及时间序列等要求规范建 设，它将带领我国整个文化宣传教育系统走向科学分析的时代 。居民满意度统计调查工作，也是推进社会进步、民主监督的 重要统计工具，也是提升政府社会保障和科学决策的科学依据 。 The development and construction of soft data statistics in Beijing International Metropolitan Statistical System is a new thing. . It has been developed in reality to some extent, has generated certain social effect and has been accepted by the relevant governmental departments, but further in-depth study in combination with the reality shall be required regarding its particular methods and techniques, especially how to include it into Beijing International Metropolitan Statistical In terms of crucial aspects, the construction may be focused on the following: 1.The development direction with the main target to enhance the analysis and regulation of economic operation: it is mainly reflected in the construction as per economic cycle and prosperity monitoring, including enterprise prosperity survey, priority index, economic cycle assessment and other surveys of soft data statistics and preparation of relevant indices. 2.The development direction with the main target to enhance the regional and industrial innovation capacity: mainly carry out regular enterprise innovation survey and analysis and study, including the enterprise innovation survey in agriculture, industry and service industry and preparation of relevant integrated indices. 北京市国际大都市统计体系中的软数据统计发展建设是一个新生事物，尽管现 实有了一定的发展，也产生了一定的社会效果，也被政府有关部门有所认可 ，但是，她的方法技术细节，特别是如何纳入北京市政府大都市统计体系之 中，还需要进一步