江恩期货教程GannMasterCommoditiesCourse.doc

江恩期货教程Gann Master Commodities Course江恩生平及简历江恩(1878-1955)：于1878年6月6日出生于美国德克萨斯州的路芙根市（Lufkin Texas)，父母是爱尔兰裔移民。少年时代的江恩在火车上卖报纸和送电报，还贩卖明信片、食品、小饰物等。江恩被世人所津津乐道的辉煌事亦是1909年他在25个交易里赚了10倍！这一年再婚的江恩接受当时著名的股票行情与投资文摘杂志访问。在杂志编辑的监督下，江恩在25个交易日里进行286次交易，其中264次获利，其余22次亏损，胜算高达923%。而资本则增值了10倍。平均交易间隔是20分钟。在华尔街投机生涯中，江恩大约赚取了5000万美元的利润。在今天，相当于5亿美元以上的数量。虽然和其他的一些投资大师相比，他的财富数量并不算什么，但是我认为最重要的是他靠自己的新发现去赚取他应得的财富。 1902年，江恩在24岁时，第一次入市买卖棉花期货。1906年，江恩到奥克拉荷马当经纪，既为自己炒，亦管理客户。在1908年，江恩30岁时，他移居纽约，成立了自己的经纪业务。同年8月8日，发展了他最重要的市场趋势预测方法，名为“控制时间因素” 。经过多次准确预测后，江恩声名大噪。最为人瞩目的是1909年10月美国“The Ticketr and Investment Digest”杂志编辑Richard .Wyckoff的一次实地访问。在杂志人员的监察下，江恩在十月份的二十五个市场交易日中共进行286次买卖，结果，264获利，22次损失，获利率竟达92.3%。据江恩一位朋友基利的回述：“1909年夏季，江恩预测9月小麦期权将会见1.20美元。可是，到9月30日芝加哥时间十二时，该期权仍然在1.08美元之下徘徊，江恩的预测眼看落空。江恩说：如果今日收市时不见1.20美元，将表示我整套分析方法都有错误。不管现在是什么价，小麦一定要见1.20美元。结果，在收市前一小时，小麦冲上1.20美元，震动整个市场，该合约不偏不倚，正好在1.20美元收市。”江恩的事业高峰期，他共聘用二十五人，为他制作各种分析图表及进行各类市场走势研究，并成立两间走势研究公司：江恩科学服务公司及江恩研究公司，出版多种投资通讯。在他每年出版的全年走势预测中，他清楚的绘制在什么时间见什么价位的预测走势图，准确性甚高。江恩相信股票、期货市场里也存在着宇宙中的自然规则，市场的价格运行趋势不是杂乱的，而是可通过数学方法预测的。江恩的数学方程并不复杂，实质就是价格运动必然遵守支持线和阻力线，也就是江恩线.此外，江恩亦主持走势分析方法讲座，收费惊人。在一个名为掌握预测方法讲座中，江恩向每位参加者收取二千五百美元。而另一个名为新机械式买卖方法及趋势指标讲座，收费更高达五千美元。江恩不单预测市场，即使美国总统选举，大战结束的时间，他都可以根据数字及字母的排列配合周期进行预测。江恩在1949年出版了他最后一本重要著作在华尔街45年，此时江恩已是72岁高龄，他坦诚披露了纵横市场数十年的取胜之道。其中江恩十二条买卖规则是江恩操作系统的重要组成部分，江恩在操作中还制定了二十一条买卖守则，江恩严格的按照十二条买卖规则和二十一条买卖守则进行操作。江恩在华尔街四十五年一书末段关于未来几年（1950-1953年）的预测显然是错误的，美国经济在1949年陷入困境，因此江恩看淡1950-1953年的经济表现。但事实是，1950-1953年美国GDP又恢复高速增长，相反倒是江恩认为见底的1953年才开始快速回落，1954年陷入衰退。虽然如此，并不影响这本书的阅读价值，因为从该书中，我们可以了解到更全面、更真实的江恩。翻译此书(Gann Master Commodities Course)的目的是经过研究，发现江恩的方法与中华易学殊途同归，都是站在一个星球上对于这宇宙的观察总结。西方的占星术在一定程度上比东方易学更加的精确些（在预测时都要加上所在地的经度与纬度），当然这是由于国外的体制问题造成其不断壮大的原因。君不见，易学中的算命算卦在国内被斥责为封建迷信，而西方的星座在各媒体中都在进行连篇累牍的介绍，哪一个国家机关视之为迷信了？这就是易学的悲哀之处。所以翻译此书的目的一个是给喜欢江恩的朋友们参考，另外一个更加重要的是希望广大易学爱好者能通过其中得到启发，将易学这门伟大的学科更加细致化、精确化、数学化，只有变成数学的东西才是他们认可的“科学”。其实这本期货教程已经有不少朋友暗中已经翻译了，不过都私藏而未公开，世面上只能看到其中的不连续的一小部分。这也是中国人的悲哀之处。所以本文翻译将全面公开。所有的朋友可以下载私人研究，严禁用于商业用途。在美国这方面的法律是非常严格的。同时，本人英语水平极低，多年未用功过，现在拾起来有一定的难度，希望英语好且搞金融的朋友一起加入。同时在中间有很多肯定是翻译不严谨而且不准确的地方，真心请同道批评指出。黑水于2006年7月17日农历丙戌年六月廿二午时江恩商品期货教程目录A Note About This Master Course关于这份高级教程Grains Lessons 谷物篇Chapter 1: Speculation A Profitable Profession: A Course Of Instructions On Grains第1章： 投机是一门有利可图的职业： 谷物市场概述Chapter 2: Mechanical Method And Trend Indicator For Trading In Grains.第2章： 谷物交易的方法和趋势指导Chapter 3: 2-Day Chart Moves Time Turns.第3章：2日图的转向Chapter 4A: Rules forTrading In Soy Beans, Corn, Wheat, Oats And Rye (Sept. 1950) 第四章A：关于大豆、 玉米、 小麦、 燕麦和黑麦的交易规则（1950年9月）Chapter 4B: Rules for Trading In Soy Beans, Corn, Wheat, Oats And Rye (1950年10月)第四章B：关于大豆、 玉米、 小麦、 燕麦和黑麦的交易规则（1950年9月）Chapter 5A: The Basis Of My Forecasting Method For Grains - Geometric Angles (c.1940+) 第五章A：我的预测方法是基于几何学角度(c.1940+)Chapter 5B: The Basis Of My Forecasting Method For Grains - Geometric Angles (1951)第五章B：我的预测方法是基于几何学角度(1951)Chapter 6: Squaring The Price Of Grains With Time第六章：时间与价格的转换（这个有点难翻译，请指教）Chapter 7: Forecasting Grains By Time Cycles.第七章：预测谷物的周期循环Chapter 8: Soy Beans Price Resistance Levels第八章：大豆的价格阻力等级Cotton Lessons 棉花篇Chapter 9: Mechanical Cotton Method And New Trend Indicator第九章：棉花交易的方法和最新趋势指导Chapter 10: Cotton Forecasting Instructions 第十章：棉花交易的预测指导Eggs Lessons 鸡蛋篇Chapter 11: Master Egg Course第十一章：鸡蛋高级教程Master Calculators And Related Lessons 关于价格计算器的高级内容（Calculators也可以译为计算图表，后面将根据本篇全文内容来重新修正）Chapter 12: The Master Mathematical Price Time And Trend Calculator第十二章：时间价格和趋势的高级运算Chapter 13A: How To Use The Master Calculator - May Soy Beans (1953) 第十三章A：高级运算在五月大豆期货合约上的运用(1953) Chapter 13B: How To Use The Master Calculator - May Soy Beans (1955) 第十三章B：高级运算在五月大豆期货合约上的运用(1955) Chapter 14: Master Calculator For Weekly Time Periods To Determine The Trend Of Stocks And Commodities 第十四章：股票和商品期货中周线时间周期的趋势确定Chapter 15: Cash And May Soy Bean Futures第十五章：五月大豆期货的买卖Chapter 16: May Soy Beans Square Of 67 - Time Periods For Days, Weeks, Months第十六章：五月大豆的年月日周期与67的平方关系Master Charts 高级图表Chapter 17A: Master Charts第十七章A：高级图表Chapter 17B: The Hexagon Chart第十七章B：六边形图表Chapter 18: Master Price And Time Chart - Squares 1 to 33 Inclusive, Price And Time 1 to 1089第十八章：时价从1循环到1089并包含1到33的平方的重要价格和时间图表（翻译准确难度大！）Chapter 19: Price And Time Chart - Cycle of 0 to 360. Time Periods 15 Days Equals Degrees - 24 cycles 24 Price For Daily Time Charts第十九章：15天与24时间价格循环与0 to 360的时间价格循环的关系图表（翻译准确难度大！）Other Writings 其它Chapter 20: May Coffee Santos D（不知如何译）第二十章：留空Chapter 21: Supply & Demand Letters第二十一章：补充和信件来往2006年7月18日 1:26目录关于这份高级教程谷物篇第1章： 投机是一门有利可图的职业： 谷物市场概述第2章： 谷物交易的技术方法及其发展趋势指标第3章：2日图的转向第四章A：关于大豆、 玉米、 小麦、 燕麦和黑麦的交易规则（1950年9月）第四章B：关于大豆、 玉米、 小麦、 燕麦和黑麦的交易规则（1950年9月）第五章A：我的预测方法是基于几何学角度(c.1940+)第五章B：我的预测方法是基于几何学角度(1951)第六章：时间与价格的转换第七章：预测谷物的周期循环第八章：大豆的价格阻力等级 棉花篇第九章：棉花交易的方法和最新发展趋势指标第十章：棉花交易的预测指标鸡蛋篇第十一章：鸡蛋高级教程关于价格计算器的高级内容第十二章：时间价格和趋势的高级运算法第十三章A：高级运算在五月大豆期货合约上的运用(1953) 第十三章B：高级运算在五月大豆期货合约上的运用(1955) 第十四章：股票和商品期货中周线时间周期的趋势确定第十五章：五月大豆期货的买卖第十六章：五月大豆的年月日周期与67的平方关系高级图表第十七章A：高级图表第十七章B：六边形图表第十八章：时价从1循环到1089并包含1到33的平方的重要价格和时间图表第十九章：15天与24时间价格循环与0 to 360的时间价格循环的关系图表其它第二十章：五月咖啡的行星角度第二十一章：补充和读编往来2006年7月18日 1:26 19日校正。关于本书这本高级期货教程来源于大量的课堂笔记，但这里面所有的内容并不是全部来源于江恩公开实用的教程。这本教程乃是经一小部分爱好者花费巨大的时间和精力认真搜集，汇编及校对而成。编写这一教程的最大目标是希望这些资料能给那些研究江恩的爱好者以最大的帮助。在这本高级教程中，我们仔细的抄录每部分的内容，以尽量保持江恩原著的真实性，并且已经仔细按正规的格式编好章节和页码。我们的主要工作是复制原文并作一些拼写及语法匹配和修改。但不乏例外：在明显与前文的重复之处或者出现较为明显错误的地方，我们进行了相应的更正。读者应该注意到那些所有细微的更正皆是为了避免改变原文原有的潜在涵义。(黑水备注：本教程初始来源就相当于手抄本，所以错误及混乱的地方肯定很多。感谢原作者及其同道在这上面下了不少的功夫。)其它地方，在有明显错误的原文旁边加入了更正标记，这样将使得前后文的意思更加的连贯和清晰。所有的标记是放在方括号内的，比如我喜欢这样的字句。所以这样提示在文中多处出现，读者能否接受则最终取决于他们自己。文中很多象这样的注解提示皆出于编者自己的理解，但最终能否接纳完全取决于本书的读者。我对那些花费大量时间整理抄写资料的朋友致以最真的感谢，没有您们的帮助本教程绝对难以面世。我真心希望这分教程能对江恩理论的研究者和爱好者有巨大的帮助。Damian Gillman编写于 2004年6月2日 本节 翻译：黑水 校正：元亨 东张西望第一章投机是一门有利可图的职业： 谷物市场概述(江恩期货教程中文版 )003CHAPTER 1SPECULATION APROFITABLE PROFESSION:A COURSE OF INSTRUCTIONS ON GRAINS第1章： 投机是一门有利可图的职业： 谷物市场概述A Course of Instructions With Time Tested Practical Rules of Trading in Grains.行之有效的谷物实用交易规则In 1911 after I had made a great success trading in stocks and commodities, there was a public demand for a book with my rules for trading successfully. This demand was answered by my first small book, “Speculation A Profitable Profession”. As the years went by I learned more about the market and realized that others needed the help that I could give them and I wrote more books to help others who were trying to help themselves. 在1911年我在股票和期货交易市场取得了巨大的成功后，公众要求我写一本交易成功的规则的手册。这种要求已经在我的投机是一门有利可图的职业书中给予回答。随着时间的推移，我在市场中获得了更多的经验，让我意识到应该写更多的给予那些需要帮助的朋友们。In May 1954 I am nearing my 76th Birthday and am writing this new course of instructions not to make money for I have more income than I can spend but realizing the demand and the need for more knowledge about future trading by so many people I now give the benefit of my 52 years experience to help those who need it. The price of this course is made reasonable in order that men and women with a small account of money can get a market education and start with a small capital and make a success provided they follow the rules after they learn them.写这本新规则教程是在1954年5月正是我快过76岁生日时候，金钱对我已无丝毫意义。我的收入远大于日常消费。因此写本书的目的是将我在期货交易市场上52年的好的经验给予那些在需要更多知识和帮助的人们。假如认真学习了本书的规则后，大家可以开一个小的资金帐户在市场上开始交易并会让你赚钱。My experience has proved that it is more profitable to trade in commodities than stocks and you can make larger profits on the same amount of capital with smaller risk. When you trade in commodities you are trading in the necessities of life.Commodity prices obey the law of supply and demand and follow a seasonal trend most of the time.我的经验证明，商品期货比股票市场能让你更能赢利，因为你用同样的资金和更小的风险能博取更大的利润。商品期货交易与你平时生活中的交易无多大的区别。商品价格大多数时间服从和跟随季节性的供需规律和状况。When you learn the rules and follow them you eliminate trading on Hope, Fear,and Guesswork which is nothing but gamble and you cannot afford to risk your money gambling. You must follow mathematical rules which I have proved to be realistic guide in trading. You must prove to yourself that the rules have always worked in the past and they will work in the future. When you have the proof follow the rules and you will make speculation a profitable profession.当您学会规则并且遵循这些规则交易时，你必须抛弃你对市场的一厢情愿和恐惧，因为你的赌博和你的臆测将会给你的资金造成极大的风险。 您必须遵循我给出的已经被当前市场证明的数学规则。 您必须亲自验证这些规则在市场上过去和未来的运用。 当您已经验证并且遵循规则进行交易，你将会在这投机市场上获得成功。-2006-7-19 1:26:43第一版who are accustomed to giving orders to others and have them carried out will often when they get into the market, especially for the first time, expect the market to follow their orders or move their way. They must learn that they cannot make the market trend go their way. They must follow the market trend as is indicated by fixed rules and protect their capital and profits by the use of STOP LOSS orders. There is no harm in making a few mistakes and a few small losses because small losses are the expense of a successful speculator. If you intend to make speculation a profitable profession you must learn all the rules and apply all of them to determine the trend. Professional men, such as lawyers, doctors, accountants and engineers spend years in training and a large amount of money to learn how to succeed in their chosen profession. You must spend time and money to learn the profession and become a successful speculator or investor. 那些在生活中习惯发号施令并让别人强行执行他们指令的人当进入市场时，尤其是初次进入市场时经常希望市场遵循他们的指令或按照他们的愿望变化。他们必须认识到市场是不可能按照他们的意图运行。他们必须遵从市场规则所显示的趋势并且通过设置止损来保护资金和利益。犯一点错误以及蒙受一点损失是没有害处的，因为少量的损失是一个成功投机者的学费。如果你打算进入投机这个有利可图的领域，你必须学会所有的规则并且应用这些规则去确定趋势。专业人员，就像律师，医生，会计以及工程师花费多年时间和大量金钱去学习怎样在自己选择的职业中获得成功。你必须花费时间和金钱去学此专业从而变成一个成功的投机者或投资人。A Course of Instructions With Time Tested Practical Rules of Trading in Grains.行之有效的谷物实用交易规则In 1911 after I had made a great success trading in stocks and commodities, there was a public demand for a book with my rules for trading successfully. This demand was answered by my first small book, “Speculation A Profitable Profession”. As the years went by I learned more about the market and realized that others needed the help that I could give them and I wrote more books to help others who were trying to help themselves. 在1911年我在股票和期货交易市场取得了巨大的成功后，公众要求我写一本交易成功的规则的手册。这种要求已经在我的投机是一门有利可图的职业书中给予回答。随着时间的推移，我在市场中获得了更多的经验，让我意识到应该写更多的给予那些需要帮助的朋友们。In May 1954 I am nearing my 76th Birthday and am writing this new course of instructions not to make money for I have more income than I can spend but realizing the demand and the need for more knowledge about future trading by so many people I now give the benefit of my 52 years experience to help those who need it. The price of this course is made reasonable in order that men and women with a small account of money can get a market education and start with a small capital and make a success provided they follow the rules after they learn them.写这本新规则教程是在1954年5月正是我快过76岁生日时候，金钱对我已无丝毫意义。我的收入远大于日常消费。因此写本书的目的是将我在期货交易市场上52年的好的经验给予那些在需要更多知识和帮助的人们。假如认真学习了本书的规则后，大家可以开一个小的资金帐户在市场上开始交易并会让你赚钱。My experience has proved that it is more profitable to trade in commodities than stocks and you can make larger profits on the same amount of capital with smaller risk. When you trade in commodities you are trading in the necessities of life.Commodity prices obey the law of supply and demand and follow a seasonal trend most of the time.我的经验证明，商品期货比股票市场能让你更能赢利，因为你用同样的资金和更小的风险能博取更大的利润。商品期货交易与你平时生活中的交易无多大的区别。商品价格大多数时间服从和跟随季节性的供需规律和状况。When you learn the rules and follow them you eliminate trading on Hope, Fear,and Guesswork which is nothing but gamble and you cannot afford to risk your money gambling. You must follow mathematical rules which I have proved to be realistic guide in trading. You must prove to yourself that the rules have always worked in the past and they will work in the future. When you have the proof follow the rules and you will make speculation a profitable profession.当您学会规则并且遵循这些规则交易时，你必须抛弃你对市场的一厢情愿和恐惧，因为你的赌博和你的臆测将会给你的资金造成极大的风险。 您必须遵循我给出的已经被当前市场证明的数学规则。 您必须亲自验证这些规则在市场上过去和未来的运用。 当您已经验证并且遵循规则进行交易，你将会在这投机市场上获得成功。HOW TO MAKE SPECULATION A PROFITABLE PROFESSION如何进行有利可图的投机？Speculation or investment is the best business in the world if you make a business of it. But in order to make a success of it you must study and be prepared and not guess, follow inside information, or depend on hope or fear. If you do you willfail. Your success depends on knowing the right kind of rules and following them.如果你想做生意，投机或者投资是这个世界上最好的买卖！但是在操作之前你必须认真学习和作好准备。任何猜测、跟随内部消息、希望和恐惧都将导致你失败。你只有通过依靠正确的方法方可成功。FUNDAMENTAL RULES基本规则Keep this well in mind. For commodities to show up trend and continue to advance they must make higher bottoms and higher tops. When the trend is down they must make lower tops and lower bottoms and continue on down to lower levels. But remember prices can move in a narrower trading range for weeks or months or even years and not make a new high or a new low. But after a long period of time when commodities break into new lows they indicate lower prices and after a long period of time when they advance above old highs or old tops they are in a stronger position and indicate higher prices. This is the reason why you must have a chart long ways back in order to see just what position a commodity is in and at what stage it is between extreme high and extreme low.将这些规则熟记在心。当市场趋势向上时，其将走出更高的底部和更高的顶部。反之，将向下走出更低的顶部和底部。除此之外，价格可能会持续数周、数月甚至数年的区间盘整。但是当经过长时间的震荡后，价格突破前期低点，将预示着会产生新低，同理，当突破前期历史顶部后，将会创历史新高。这就是你需要拥有包含所有历史高低点的完整的市场数据图表的原因。THE KIND OF CHARTS TO KEEP UP图表的预测功能Remember the old Chinese proverb “One good picture is worth 10,000 words”.You should make up charts and study the picture of a commodity before you make a trade. You should have a weekly high and low chart, a monthly high and low chart and a yearly high and low chart. A yearly high and low chart should run back 5, 10 or 20 years if you can get records that far. Monthly high and low chart should go back for at least 10 years and the weekly high and low should go back for 2 or 3 years. When commodities are very active you should have a daily high and low chart. This need not go back more than a few months. Start the daily chart after the commodity breaks into great activity. 中国有句谚语：一图抵万言。因此在你确定交易前应该整理和研究各品种图表。你平时应该准备好包含有年、月、周高低点的周期图表。你最好能收集到能记录有过去5年、10年或20年的年线和至少10年的月线及23年的周线的历史高低点数据图表。当行情开始变得活跃时，可以不回顾前几个月的数据，这时你需要收集每天的高低点图表。当行情发生巨大突破后，开始记录每天的图表。东张西望：中国有句古话:一图抵万言.因此在你确定交易前应该整理和研究各品种图表。你应该搜集包含有年、月、周高低点的周期图表。采集年的高低点的时候,你应该回顾5,10,20年的信息,如果你能得到更远的数据.采集月的高低点,你应该回顾至少10年的信息,而周的高低点你至少采集2,3年信息.当行情活跃，你需要采集每天的高低点图表的时候你需要回顾几个月的信息.当行情发生巨大突破后，开始记录每天的图表。年的高低点:5,10,20年甚至更远的信息月的高低点:10年的信息周的高低点:23年的信息日的高低点:几个月的信息FOLLOW THE MAIN TREND顺应主要趋势You will always make money by following the main trend of commodities up or down. Remember that commodities are never too high to buy as long as the trend is up and they are never too low to sell as long as the trend is down. Never sell short just because the commodity is high or because you think it is too high. Never sell out and take profits just because the price is high. Buy and sell according to definite rules and not on hope, fear or guesswork. Never buy a commodity just because the commodity is low. There is usually a good reason why it is low and it can go lower.顺序大势操作你会在期货市场中不断获利。记住：只要趋势向上，不要因为太高而不敢买，相反，只要趋势向下，也不要太低而不敢卖。绝对不要因为价格太高而做短期卖出或者你认为它已经涨太高了。不能因为价格太高而先卖出获利。买卖是依照明确的规则来操作而不是你对市场的期望、恐惧或臆测。同时也不能因为价格太低而买进。有充足的理由证明市场为什么会不断创出新低。RULES FOR BUYING AND SELLING 买卖规则The first thing to remember before you start to apply any rules is that you must always use a STOP-LOSS order to protect your capital. When making a trade remember that you can be wrong or that the market may change its trend and the STOP-LOSS order will protect you and limit your loss. A small loss or several small losses can easily be made back with one large profit, but when you let large losses run against you it is hard to make them back.在接受这些规则前你首先记住必须永远要下“止损单”来保护资金的安全。因为你可以会在交易中犯错或者市场趋势改变时，所以在交易中要用“止损单”来保护和减小你的损失。一次大的赢利抵得过一次或者几次小的损失，反之一次大的损失再想打回来时则困难得多了。2006年7月21日0.06PROVE ALL THINGS AND HOLD FAST TO THAT WHICH IS GOODThe Bible tells us this and it is well worth remembering. Many people believe that it is wrong to buy at new high levels or to sell at new low levels but it is most profitable and you must prove this to yourself because when you do buy at newhigh levels or sell at new low levels you are going with the trend of the market and your chances for making profits are much better than guesswork or buying or selling on hope or fear.PROLONGED ADVANCESAfter commodities have had a prolonged advance and wind up with a fast, active, runaway market in most cases they come down very quickly and much faster or in a shorter period of time than when they go up. That is why you must keep up somedaily charts at the end of a fast move and keep up the weekly charts to determine the first change in trend and be able to go with it. SHARP DECLINE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIMEThis usually follows a rapid advance and the first sharp declines which may last from one month to as much as seven weeks usually corrects an overbought position and leaves the market in position for a secondary advance.When you are able to catch the extremes at the end of any great time cycle you can make a large amount of money in one years time trading in fast active markets, and some very large profits in one months time. It makes no difference whether