职能战略-财务战略.ppt

职能战略财务战略（策略）,李建良 北京信息科技大学经济管理学院 北京信息科技大学企业成长研究中心 2007年,要点,企业战略三层次逻辑框架 企业财务战略的逻辑框架 企业财务战略决策的要点 投资决策 基本原理 确定条件下的投资决策 不确定条件的投资决策 融资决策 营运资金决策 股利决策,企业战略三层次逻辑框架,企业财务战略的逻辑框架,流动资产,固定资产 其他长期资产,流动负债,长期负债,所有者权益,净营运资金,投资决策 （长期）融资决策 营运资金（流动资金）决策 股利决策,公司战略/业务单元战略的战略类型（发展型、紧缩型、稳定型）和一般竞争战略途径选择（成本领先、差异化、集中化）对财务战略（策略）的要求,适应,投资决策基本原理,投资是经济主体让渡现行的货币使用权，以期在未来获得一定的货币收入的经济行为（规划现金流的行为）。包括实物投资和金融投资两大类； 投资活动的两大特征：时间（延期消费）和风险（未来不确定性）； 投资者的回报补偿：（）投资资金被占用的时间价值；（）预期的通货膨胀率；（）未来收益的不确定性。 投资与资本,投资决策基本原理,Date 0,Date i,自由现金流,Date 1,C3,C0,C1,C2,Ci,适用的资金成本率（最低报酬率）,前提条件: 有效率资本市场（有效市场假设） 交易无成本 可自由进入资本市场 借入和借出资本的信息可获得 存在大量的交易者，且每一个交易者对市场价格均无显著影响 一个有效率的资本市场对净现值原理的意义： (1)给投资者根据其偏好对消费模式进行跨期调整提供了可能。这样，经理层只需依据正的净现值进行决策，无需关注不同投资者的消费模式的差异（可以通过在资本市场借入借出进行调整）； (2)给投资者、公司甚至政府提供了一个进行投资决策的比较标准：任何一项投资至少应获得与资本市场投资相同的收益，否则直接投资资本市场获取机会收益就可。,投资决策基本原理,投资学决策基本原理,决策依据：接受净现值大于0的投资行为 确定条件下的投资决策 现金流估算 估算方法 增量现金流 沉没成本与机会成本 贴现率估算 期限问题（求极限） 通货膨胀问题 互斥项目投资决策 不确定条件下的投资决策,估算方法 从投资角度看，公司价值取决于其创造现金流的能力 现金流估算的不同视角 现金流量表 金融角度的现金流 注意： 净利润Net Income 自由现金流Free Cash Flow(FCF) 计算经营现金流时未考虑应收帐款是因为应收帐款在净营运资金的变动额中已经考虑了 在中国，现金流量表的编制很少有正确的，“其他与经营活动有关的现金流”一项往往很大,确定条件下的投资决策现金流估算,现金流量表 经营活动现金流 净利润 折旧 递延税款 流动资产和流动负债变动额 应收帐款 存货 应付帐款 应付费用 应付票据 其他 经营活动现金流合计 投资活动现金流 长期资产购置现金支出 长期资产处置现金流入 投资活动现金流合计 融资活动现金流 到期偿付债务（含到期票据） 新增长期负债 股利支出 股票回购 新股发行 融资活动现金流合计 现金流净变动额（对应资产负债表）,金融视角的现金流 公司现金流 经营活动现金流 税息前利润 折旧 当期支付税款 资本支出 长期资产购置现金支出 长期资产处置现金流入 净营运资金变动额 本年净营运资金 上年净营运资金 合计 公司投资者的现金流 债权人 利息 到期偿付债务 长期债务融资 权益方 红利 股票（权）回购 新股发行 合计,Calculate from EBIT,not after-taxation profit, so current taxes should be reduced,确定条件下的投资决策现金流估算,现金流估算增量现金流（incremental basis） Incremental Cash Flows(增量现金流）: in calculating the NPV of a project, only cash flows that are incremental to the project should be used. These cash flows are the changes in the firms cash flows that occur as a direct consequences of accepting the project. Sunk Costs（沉没成本）: a cost that has already occurred. Because sunk cost are in the past,they can not be changed by the decision to accept or reject the project. Just as we “let bygones be bygones”, we should ignore such costs, that is, sunk costs are not incremental cash outflows. Opportunity Costs（机会成本）: If the assets is used in a new project, potential revenues from alternative uses are lost. These lost revenues can meaningfully be viewed as cost. They are called opportunity costs because, by taking the project, the firm forgoes other opportunities for using the assets. Side Effects（关联效应）: another difficulty in determining incremental cash flows comes from the side effects of the proposed project on other parts of the firm. The most important side effect is erosion. Erosion is the cash flow transferred to a new project from customers and sales of other products of the firm.,确定条件下的投资决策现金流估算,现金流估算增量现金流：总结 Capital budgeting must be placed on an incremental basis. This means that sunk costs must be ignored, while both opportunity costs and side effects must be considered; In the Baldwin Company case, we computed NPV using the following two steps: A) calculate the net cash flow from all sources for each period B) calculate the NPV using the cash flows calculated above.,确定条件下的投资决策现金流估算,贴现率估算资本成本,The Weighted Average Cost of Capital（加权平均资金成本）,由于公司在税后才向权益投资者支付股利，所以Re是税后报酬率,债务利息是税前支付，有减税作用，故Rd前必须乘以（1-T）以调整成税后债务成本,资本成本在投资决策中的作用： （）在NPV运用中作为折现率（假定项目风险与公司风险一致） （）在IRR运用中作为基准利率,确定条件下的投资决策贴现率估算,贴现率估算资本成本,The Cost of Equity Capital（权益成本）,Risk-free return: long-term bonds interest rate,Market return, usually represented by market index return, such as the return of S&P500,Ri,RS&P500,确定条件下的投资决策贴现率估算,Nominal interest rate（名义利率） Real interest rate（实际利率） Real interest rate=(1+Nominal interest rate)/(1+Inflation rate)-1 Real interest rate Nominal interest rate-Inflation rate Nominal cash flow（名义现金流） Real cash flow（实际现金流） Real cash flows must be discounted at the real rate Nominal cash flows must be discounted at the nominal rate,Discount: Nominal or Real?,确定条件下的投资决策通货膨胀处理,互斥项目新购买决策不对等期限处理 New Purchase Decision（新购买决策）: suppose a firm must choose between two machine of unequal lives, both machines can do the same job, but they have different operating costs and will last for different time periods. A simple application of the NPV rule suggests that we should take the machine whose costs have the lower present value. This could lead to the wrong decision, though, because the lower-cost machine may need to be replaced before the other one. How should we do? If we are choosing between two mutually exclusive projects that have different lives, the projects must be evaluated on an equal-life basis.,确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目,互斥项目新购买决策不对等期限处理,Example 1(new-purchase decision): machine A costs $ 500, lasts three years, maintenance expenses $ 120 per year; machine B costs $ 600, lasts four years, maintenance expenses $ 100 per year; discount rate 10%. All costs in real term, revenue per year are assumed to be the same, regardless of machine. Which machine should be selected?,Under the same revenue, machine A has lower cost, choose machine A?,NO! why?,Because machine B has a longer life so perhaps its cost per year is actually lower!,确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目,互斥项目新购买决策不对称期限处理：期限匹配法,Method 1: Matching Cycles suppose run the example for 12 years, machine A has 4 complete cycles, and machine B has 3. So comparison appropriate.,First replacement occurs at date 3, another 798.42 cost occurs in PV term.,First replacement occurs at date 4, another 916.99 cost occurs in PV term.,Problem: one the number of cycle is high, the amount of calculation is also high.,Prefer B!,确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目,Method 2: Equivalent Annual Cost(EAC) Equate the single payment of 798,42 to machine A at date 0 with a three-year annuity; Equate 916.99 to machine B with a four-year annuity. Choose the less EAC machine.,An annuity of $1 a year for three years, discounted at 10%,Since EACB EACA, Prefer B!,互斥项目新购买决策不对称期限处理：年平均成本法,确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目,互斥项目设备更新决策不对称期限处理 Replacement Decision（设备更新决策）: when to replace an existing machine with a new one? First, calculate the EAC for the new equipment; second, calculate the yearly cost for the old equipment, this cost likely rises over time because the machines maintenance expenses should increase with age. Replacement should occur right before the cost of the old equipment exceeds the EAC on the new equipment.,确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目,Example 2 (replacement decision): BIKE is contemplating whether to replace an existing machine or to spend money overhauling it. BIKE currently pays no taxes. The replacement machine costs $9000 now and requires maintenance of $1000 at the end of every year for eight years. At the end of eight years it would have a salvage value of $2000 and would be sold. The existing machine requires increasing amounts of maintenance each year, and its salvage value falls each year, as shown below:,互斥项目设备更新决策不对称期限处理,Suppose the maintenance fee is paid at the end of of the year, the machine will last for four more years before it falls apart. If BIKE faces an opportunity cost of capital of 15%,when should it replace the machine?,确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目,Step 1: calculate the EAC of the new machine,Step 2: calculate the cost of maintain the old machine,Step 3: make a comparison: Replace immediately!,互斥项目设备更新决策不对称期限处理,确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目,不确定条件的投资决策,公司策略行为对净现值的影响 Positive NPV is accepted, but what are the sources of positive NPV?,Positive NPV,Lower investment(outflows),Higher inflows,Lower discount rate (risks),A significant part of corporate strategy analysis is seeking investment opportunities that can produce positive NPV.,公司策略行为对净现值的影响,Strategic action to create positive NPV,Introduce new product,Develop core technology,Create barrier to entry,Introduce variation on existing products,Create product differentiation,Utilize organizational innovation,Exploit new technology,不确定条件的投资决策,公司策略行为与股票价格,Strategic actions,Positive NPV,Stock price rising,中国股市的“概念满天飞”现象分析,不确定条件的投资决策,增量现金流不确定的处理方法,Further discussion,不确定条件的投资决策,增量现金流不确定的处理方法,方法一：决策树Decision Tree,Discount rate 15% 75% chance to test successfully,Expected NPV1= 151775%+25%0=1138, NPV0=-100+1138/(1+15%)=890,Decision: to conduct the test!,不确定条件的投资决策,方法二： Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario Analysis,Only one variable varied,others fixed,Many variables varied together,Investment on date o,inflows from date1 to date5,depreciation 300 per year; Discount rate 15%, tax rate 34%,Given numbers,NPV Using SA,10000*30%*(2-1)-1791-300*(1-34%)+300=900,Only Market size changed from 1000 to 20000, other variables fixed,增量现金流不确定的处理方法,不确定条件的投资决策,增量现金流不确定的处理方法敏感性分析的另一种表达,不确定条件的投资决策,方法三：盈亏平衡分析 Break-Even Analysis,In net profit quantity,In NPV quantity,P-price, V-variable costs per unit, C-fixed costs, D-depreciation, Tc-tax rate, Q*-break-even sales units,Equivalent Annual Costs,折旧亦是固定成本之一部分; 在中国，工资有时亦为固定成本之一。,增量现金流不确定的处理方法,不确定条件的投资决策,Q*net profit Q*NPV 用净利润口径计算的盈亏平衡点销量假设D=EAC, 即初始投资通过折旧得到弥补，这一计算忽视了初始投资的机会成本(discount rate)447.5-300=147.5,增量现金流不确定的处理方法盈亏平衡分析举例,不确定条件的投资决策,方法四：期权法 Options-Abandon or Expand,M = NPV + Opt,The market value of the project,The value of the project without options to expand or contract,The value of managerial options,Notes: Conventional NPV analysis discounts a projects cash flows estimated for a certain project life. The decision is whether to accept the project or reject it. In practice, managers can expand or contract the scope of a project at various moments over its life. In theory, all such managerial options should be included in the projects value.,The right of choice!,增量现金流不确定的处理方法,不确定条件的投资决策,Discount rate 10%, the probability of failure and success is the same (50%), should we launch the new product?,方法一：,方法二：,C/r,The expected cash flow from abandonment,The expected cash flow from options,增量现金流不确定的处理方法期权法举例,不确定条件的投资决策,融资决策基本逻辑,Equity-stock（股权股票） Bonds（债券） Preferred stock（优先股） Convertible preferred stock（可转换优先股） Convertible bonds（可转换债） Warrants（认股权证）,融资决策长期工具选择,有效市场假设 Definition: An efficient market is one in which stock prices fully reflect available information. General implications for investors and for firms: Because information is reflected in prices immediately, investors should only expect to obtain a normal rate of return. Awareness of information when it is released does an invest no good. The price adjusts before the investor has time to trade on it; Firms should expect to receive the fair value for securities that they sell. Fair means that the price they receive for the securities they issue is the present value. Thus, valuable financing opportunities that arise from fooling investors are unavailable in efficient capital markets. Presuppositions: (1)efficient disclosure of information; (2)efficiently receive; (3)efficient judgments; (4)efficient feedback.,融资决策的理论假设EMH,Information set of past prices, Information set of publicly available, All information relevant to a stock,有效市场假设 Three types of efficient capital markets,The weak-form of efficiency: todays price reflects only information on past prices. Pt = Pt-1 + Expected return +Random errort 不完全信息、无传输渗漏、不完全解读（能且只能解读历史价格信息）、无时滞反馈,The semi-strong form of efficiency: todays price reflects all publicly available information. 不完全信息、无传输渗漏、完全解读、无时滞反馈,The strong-form of efficiency: todays price reflects all information, both public and private. 完全信息、无传输渗漏、完全解读、无时滞反馈,implies , implies ,融资决策的理论假设EMH,资本结构,Bonds60%,Stocks40%,Bonds40%,Stocks60%,Value of firm,Value of firm,V B + S,How to maximizing the value of the entire firm? what is the ratio of debt to equity that maximizes the shareholders interest?,融资决策资本结构,MM Propositions Without Taxes,Presuppositions: Without taxes 公司在无税收环境下运营 Perfect market 存在高度完善的资本市场，股票和债券在完全资本市场上的交易意味着：）没有交易成本；）投资者进入和退出市场不受限制；）所有投资者可以平等、免费获取市场信息；）投资者个人和组织可同公司一样以同等利率借款。 Measurable operating risks 企业的经营风险是可以衡量的，可以用EBIT的标准差来衡量，有相同经营风险的企业即处于同类风险等级； Risk-free debts 企业和个人的负债没有风险，所以负债利率为无风险利率，此外，不论个人和企业举债数额为多少，这个条件不变； Same expectation of EBIT 现在和将来的投资者对企业未来EBIT的估计完全相同，即投资者对公司未来收益和这些收益风险的预期是相等的； Zero growth 企业各期的现金流是固定的，形成等额年金流，企业各期的税息前利润不变，即企业为0增长。,融资决策资本结构,MM Propositions Without Taxes,Proposition I ( no taxes ): The value of the levered firm is the same as the value of the un-levered firm无论公司有无负债，其价值等于公司所有资产的预期收益额除以适于该公司风险等级的报酬率。即，当不考虑公司税时，企业的价值是由它的实际资产决定的，而不取决于这些资产的取得形式，即企业的价值与资本结构无关。,Investment=Depreciation, because of Zero growth,If levered firms are priced too high, rational investors will simply borrow on their personal accounts to buy shares in un-levered firms. This substitution is oftentimes called homemade leverage. As long as individuals borrows (and lend) on the same terms as the firms, they can duplicate the effects of corporate leverage on their own.,The same EBIT regardless of the L/S ratio(Assumption),融资决策资本结构,负债约束,VL = VU + TD,Maximize firm value by issue maximum debt?,No!,How to maximize firm value?,Maximize firm value by issue maximum debt?,making use of those benefits from debt financing, such as tax shield benefit; considering those costs from debt financing, such as bankruptcy cost and and agency costs.,融资决策资本结构,Tax Shield Effects（节税效应）：VL = VU + TD, MM theory argued that the firms value rises with leverage in the presence of corporate taxes. 由于债务的利息是在税前支付的，企业由此减少了所得税的支付，由此获得节税利益。节税利益的存在，使得负债企业的价值及其股东权益高于无负债企业； Motivation Effects（经营激励效应）：当公司增加债务时，公司的破产可能性增加，对债权人还本付息的现金流压力会使经理人手中的“自由现金”得到控制，现金流出的压力会促使经理人提高经营效率，以免因公司破产而导致个人的名誉、地位和收益损失。 Leverage Effects（杠杆效应）：在企业资本结构一定的条件下，从EBIT中支付的债务利息和优先股股利是固定的。当EBIT增长时，每一元利润负担的固定资本成本就会减少，从而使普通股的EPS以更快的速度增长，当EBIT减少时，每一元利润负担的固定资本成本就会增加，从而使普通股的EPS以更快的速度下降。这种由于负债引起的普通股每股收益的波动幅度大于EBIT波动幅度的现象被称为财务杠杆。,EBIT,EPS,Line with tax,Line without tax,0,The Benefits from Debt Financing（债务增加的收益）,融资决策负债约束,Bankruptcy costs（破产成本） Direct costs: Lawyer fees（律师费）, administrative and accounting fees（行政与会计费用）, expert witness fees when a trial takes place（作证费用）. Indirect costs: 股东及经理人“合谋”短期利益（transfer assets or profit, cancel required maintenance expenses, and so on), 顾客、供货商和资金提供者的避险行为选险（sales are frequently lost because of both fear of impaired services and loss of trust, and so on). Agency costs（代理成本, shareholders versus bond-holders）: there are three kinds of selfish strategies that shareholders use to hurt the bondholders and help themselves. These strategies are costly because they will lower the market value of the whole firm. Incentive to take risks: invest high risk project, issue more bonds, and so on Incentive toward under-investment: positive NPV benefits bondholders at the cost of shareholders money. Milking the property: pay out extra dividends or other distributions in times of financial distress, leaving less in the firm for the bondholders.,The Costs from Debt Financing（债务带来的成本）,融资决策负债约束,The Optimal Amount of Debt and the Value of the Firm,V=VU+TD-FDC =VU+TD-FCC-AC,PV of bankruptcy cost,PV of agency cost,融资决策负债约束,定义,Payment of cash for raw materials,Cash received from sold goods,Time:,1 year ( less ),Cash inflows,Cash outflows,Purchase of machine,Time:,years,Cash inflows,Cash outflows,Short-term financial decision,1,3,2,4,Long-term financial decision,Short-term finance is an analysis of decision that affect current assets and current liabilities and will frequently have an impact on the firm within a year(net working capital decision). The most important difference between short-term and long-term finance is the timing of cash flows. Short-term financial decisions involve cash flows and outflows within a year or less.,营运资金决策,现金决策定义,Cash = Long-term debt + Equity Net working capital (excluding cash) Fixed assets,Net working capital+Fixed assets=Long-term debt+Equity Net working capital=Cash+Other current assets-Current liabilities Cash+Other current assets-Current liabilities=Long-term debt+Equity-Fixed assets Cash= Long-term debt+Equity-Fixed assets-(Other current assets-Current liabilities),Indicating increasing long-term debt and equity and decreasing fixed assets and net working capital (excluding cash) will increase cash to the firm.,营运资金决策,现金决策来源和用途,Sources of Cash: Cash flow from operations: Net income Depreciation Total cash flow from operations Decrease in net working capital: Increase in accounts payable Increase in notes payable Increase in accrued expenses Increase in taxes payable Total sources of cash,Uses of Cash: Increase in fixed assets Increase in prepayments Dividends Increase in net working capital: Investment in inventory Increase in accounts receivable Increase in marketable securities Total uses of cash,Change in cash balance,营运资金决策,现金循环,The operating cycle is the time period from the arrival of stock until the receipt of cash. The cash cycle begins when cash is paid for materials and ends when cash is collected from receivables.,The need for short-term financial decision making is suggested by the gap between the cash inflows and cash outflows. This is related to the lengths of the operating cycle and the accounts payable period. This gap can be filled either by borrowing or by holding a liquidity reserve for marketable securities. The gap can be shortened by changing the inventory, receivable, and payable periods.,营运资金决策,流动资产决策,The Size of the Firms Investment in Current Assets(Current Assets/Sales),The Financing for Current Assets(short-term debt/long-term financing),Flexible Policy Keeping large balances of cash and marketable securities Making large investments in inventory Granting liberal credit terms, which results in a high level of accounts receivable Restrictive Policy Keeping low cash balances and no investment in marketable securities Making small investments in inventory Allowing no credit sales and no accounts receivable.,An Ideal Model Short-term assets can always be financed with short-term debt, and long-term assets can be financed with long-term debt and equity. Net working capital is always zero. An S