灾害管理培训——毛刚强.ppt

灾害管理培训,概况,课程目标：了解灾害管理的基本概念和当今灾害管理的趋势，了解灾害管理和发展之间的关系、了解损害评估和需求分析的方法、了解社区灾害风险管理的方法及过程、了解参与式风险评估的概念及方法,交流内容,灾害管理的基本概念和术语 灾害管理的趋势 灾害与发展的关系 评估方法简介,灾害管理的基本概念和术语,基本术语：灾害、致灾因子、风险、风险元素、能力、易损性、灾害风险、响应、求援救济、恢复、修复、重建、发展、减轻、准备、防御、灾害风险管理 灾害管理的趋势：防御、减轻、救灾-防灾、备灾、将灾害风险纳入发展周期中 国家-社区 多层次、多方位与多学科的参与及共同工作的全面灾害管理 灾害风险管理的周期：大范围的组织、机构的参与和有效合作，与制度国家发展规划相联，旨在创造最佳利用资源、最大程度减少重复的有规划的环境，增强可持续发展，并提高国家和社区的抵御能力，包括确定背景、辨别风险、分析风险、评估风险、接受风险、应对风险,灾害管理的趋势,趋势：综合灾害风险管理，帮助 决策者在发展规划中进行灾害风险分析，从而减轻投资风险 社区参与灾害风险管理,灾害管理周期的变化,灾害管理周期包括六个阶段： 防御 减轻 准备 响应 修复 恢复,Emergency Response 紧急响应,Rehabilitation 修复,Reconstruction 重建,Disaster Prevention 防灾,Disaster Mitigation 减灾,Disaster Preparedness 备灾,Warning 预警,Disaster 灾害,New Paradigm,Understanding the impact of disaster risks on development and incorporating disaster risk considerations into development funding and planning Development should support the reduction of vulnerability and the building of community and country resilience Development agencies and donors must promote linkages between their development and humanitarian work,Holistic、Comprehensive、Cooperative and Collaborative、Multi-level, multi-dimensional and multi-disciplinary involvement 、Considers underlying causes of disasters, conditions of disaster risks,CHARM moves the focus away from departments and agencies supporting a wide range of non-coordinated activities, towards a broader and integrated programming approach that will promote the achievement of sustainable outcomes.,社区参与灾害风险管理,To enable the vulnerable members of a community or society to obtain the benefits that they desire and expect from their collective participation in the identification, planning, implementation and evaluation of risk reduction project. 使社区或社会的脆弱群体获得他们所渴望并期待的好处。这些好处是从他们在集体参与减轻灾害风险项目的辨别、规划、实施和评估中获得的。,目标：,什么是社区灾害风险管理过程,Process of mobilizing a group of people in a systematic way towards achieving a common risk reduction objective which takes place in a geographically-defined living area (or) in sector groups not necessarily living in a district location. 社区灾害风险管理过程是指：用一种有系统的方式，动员一群人完成减轻灾害风险的共同目标的过程。这一过程发生在居住在同一地理区域的社区，或发生在一个专业领域但不一定同属一个地理区域的人群中。,Stages in Community Based Disaster Risk Management Process社区灾害风险管理过程的步骤.,Stage,1,INITIATING THE PROCESS 创始过程,EXTERNAL INVOLVEMENT 外部参与,Request for assistance from within vulnerable communities 来自脆弱社区的援助要求 Identification of vulnerable communities by intermediaries 由相关的中间组织辨别脆弱的社区 A hazard event or disaster that highlights the need for assistance 需要重点援助应对的致灾因子或灾害 Knowledge of local situations, processes and systems 了解当地情况、经济、社会关系及政治、行政管理系统,Stage,2,COMMUNITY PROFILING 社区剖面,EXTERNAL INVOLVEMENT 外部参与,Initial integration with the community 与社区接触、融合 Understanding of the community, its developmental positions and the context upon which disaster will impact 了解社区的基本情况、社区的发展状况及灾害将造成对社区的影响 Identification of social groups, cultural arrangements, economic activities, spatial characteristics, vulnerable households and groups 辨别社会团体、文化习俗、经济活动、地理区域特征、脆弱的家庭和群体,Stages in Community Based Disaster Risk Management Process社区灾害风险管理过程的步骤.,Stage,3,COMMUNITY RISK ASSESSMENT 社区风险评估,COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT 社区参与,Hazard Mapping 绘制致灾因子图 Vulnerability assessment 易损性评估 Capacity assessment 能力评估 Peoples perception of disaster risks 人们对灾害风险的认识,=,The size of the problem and the opportunities to deal with 问题的大小和 应对机会,Stages in Community Based Disaster Risk Management Process社区灾害风险管理过程的步骤.,Stage,4,RISK REDUCTION PLANNING 减轻灾害风险计划,COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT 社区参与,Preparedness measures 准备措施 Mitigation measures 减轻措施 Roles, responsibilities, schedules, inputs, outputs 角色责任、 日程表、 输入、输出 Community target and indicators 社区目标和指标,Stages in Community Based Disaster Risk Management Process 社区灾害风险管理过程的步骤.,Stage,4,RISK REDUCTION PLANNING 减轻灾害风险计划,COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT 社区参与,Preparedness measures 准备措施 Mitigation measures 减轻措施 Roles, responsibilities, schedules, inputs, outputs 角色责任、 日程表、 输入、输出 Community target and indicators 社区目标和指标,Stages in Community Based Disaster Risk Management Process 社区灾害风险管理过程的步骤.,Stage,5,IMPLEMENTING AND MONITORING 实施和监测,COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT 社区参与,Strengthening of Community Response Organization 加强社区的响应组织 Community mobilization in risk reduction activities 动员社区开展减轻风险活动,Stages in Community Based Disaster Risk Management Process社区灾害风险管理过程的步骤.,Stage,6,EVALUATION AND FEEDBACK 评估和反馈,COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT 社区参与,Lessons learned 学习教训 Documentation and dissemination of best practices 归档文字材料，并传播最佳实践经验,Stages in Community Based Disaster Risk Management Process社区灾害风险管理过程的步骤,灾害与发展的关系,Cause and effect relationship between disasters and development is ignored. 灾害与发展之间的因果关系被忽略 Disasters are seen in the context of emergency response. 对灾害只看到紧急响应的一面 Development programs are not assessed in the context of disaster risks. 发展项目没有考虑灾害风险因素 Communities under disaster stress are seen as too turbulent for development initiatives. 受灾害威胁的社区对于发展活动过于狂热,Political system securing citizen participation in decision making 政治体系应保证公众参与决策 Economic system able to generate surpluses and technical knowledge on a self reliant basis 经济体系能够在自力更生的基础上产生剩余和技术知识 Social system that ensure equitable development and provide solutions for tensions arising from disharmonious development 社会体系能够保证社会公正，并能解决由于不协调发展带来的紧张关系,Development Requires 发展的要求,Production system that respects the obligation to preserve the ecological base for development 生产体系能够在遵循保护生态环境的基础上发展 Technological system that can search new solutions 技术体系能够找到新的解决方法 Sensitive, flexible and self-correcting administrative system 敏感、灵活和能自我校正的行政体系,The Relationship Between Disaster and Development 灾害与发展的关系,Negative Realm 负面领域,-,Positive Realm 正面领域,+,Development Realm 发展领域,Disaster Realm 灾害领域,Disasters can provide development opportunities 灾害可为发展提 供机会,Development can reduce vulnerability 发展可以减轻易损性,Disasters can set back development 灾害可以阻碍发展,Development can increase vulnerability 发展可增加易损性,Factors that could help decision-makers in risk mitigation investment analysis 帮助决策者进行减轻投资风险分析的要素,Disaster Impact 灾害的影响,How disaster effects can vary from one type of hazard to another 灾害影响如何随致灾因子的类型不同而不同，但资源均受到损毁，包括 essential goods (food , raw materials) and availability of facilities (housing, infrastructure facilities, health, education etc.) 基本物资(食物、原材料) 和设施(房屋、基础设施、健康、教育等) Suffering to low income earners will be higher. 对低收入者的影响更甚,Reconstruction Period after Disaster is an Opportunity for General Assistance 灾后重建时期是获得综合援助的机会,Failure analyses for better application of design codes. 进行失败分析以便更好地应用设计法规 Coordination of lending programs, grants and subsidies. 协调贷款项目、赠款和补助 Higher level of policy framework development, improvement of centrally driven accountability systems. 制定更高一级的政策框架，改进受中央主导的责任制系统,Review and enhancement of financial approval procedures 检查和提高财政审批的程序 Involvement of non-formal sector in development work 非正规部门参与发展工作,Cost Effectiveness of Development Programs 发展项目的成本效用,Categories of impact and consequent losses due to disasters: 灾害影响的种类和相应的损失 Direct monetary effects (infrastructure and buildings) 直接经济损失(基础设施和建筑) Indirect monetary effects (loss of production and clean up costs) 间接经济损失(生产受损和清理成本),Direct non-monetary effects (deaths, injuries, loss of cultural items) 直接非经济影响(死亡、受伤、文物损失) Indirect non-monetary effects (disruption to education, health) 间接非经济影响(教育中断、健康) Loss of non-renewable natural resources 非再生自然资源的损失,Building Links Between Disasters and Development - Communitys Role 建立灾害和发展的联系 社区的角色,Community involvement in all development initiatives is essential, since hazard prone communities are the victims of disasters and beneficiaries of development programs. 社区参与所有的有关发展的活动是最基本的，因为受致灾因子影响的社区是灾害的受害者和发展的受益者,HAZARD ASSESSMENT 致灾因子评估,Classification of Hazards 致灾因子分类,Natural 自然的 Technological 技术的 Societal/Complex 社会的/综合的,Origin or Causes of Hazards 致灾因子的起源或起因,Origin or Causes of Hazards 致灾因子的起源或起因,For example, what will be the secondary hazards associated with earthquake? 例如，与地震相关的继发灾害是什么?,One Hazard Causing a Secondary Hazard一种致灾因子引发另一种致灾因子,In case of Earthquake, there can be further hazards such as: 发生地震时，可能会发生继发的致灾因子 Building collapse 建筑物倒塌 Dam failure 大坝损毁 Fire 火灾 Hazardous material spill Interruption of power/ water supply/ communication/ transportation/ waste disposal 有害材料溢出，造成中断电力、供水、通讯、 交通和废物处理 Landslide 山体滑坡 Soil liquefaction 土壤液化 Tsunami (tidal wave) 海啸（潮汐）,One Hazard Causing a Secondary Hazard一种致灾因子引发另一种致灾因子,HAZARD ASSESSMENT 致灾因子评估,“The process of studying the nature of hazards determining its essential features (degree of severity, duration, extent of the impact area) and their relationship“. 研究致灾因子性质的过程，决定致灾因子的本质特征（严重程度、持续时间、波及范围）以及它们之间的关系,Quantitative Approach 定量方法 Use mathematical functions with numerical values 运用带有数值的数学函数 Each variable will describe the relationship among parameters that characterize the phenomena 每个变量表示描述现象性质的参数间的关系,ASSESSMENT APPROACHES 评估方法,Use qualitative descriptions (such as low, medium or high) instead of numerical values 使用定性的描述（例如低、中或高）而不是数值,Qualitative Approach 定性方法,ASSESSMENT APPROACHES 评估方法 （续）,Probabilistic Approach 概率方法 Estimates the probability of each hazard affecting an area or region, and likelihood of occurrence and can be determined through research studies, simulation studies, etc (eg. Flood/erosion simulation studies, slope stability calculations, landslide hazard zonation). 评估每一个影响地区或区域的致灾因子的概率和这些致灾因子发生的可能，以及通过调查研究和模拟研究确定这些灾害的可能性（例如 洪水/腐蚀模拟研究、斜坡稳定性计算、山体滑坡致灾因子的地带分布）,ASSESSMENT APPROACHES 评估方法 （续）,Usage of Hazard Information in Natural Hazard Assessment 自然致灾因子评估中致灾因子信息的使用,Sources: 来源 Myths and legends? 神话和传奇 Historic records? 历史记录 Research data?研究数据,Hazard Zonation mapping 致灾因子地带分布绘图 Hazard maps outline zones that are defined in terms of the probability of occurrence of potentially damaging phenomena within a certain span of time within a specified location or an area.(Varnes,1984) 致灾因子地图所描画的地带是根据特定位置或区域、在特定的时间跨度内潜在的破坏情况发生的概率来确定的,Hazard Assessment Techniques and Tools 致灾因子评估技术和工具,Hazard maps outline zones that are defined in terms of the probability of occurrence of potentially damaging phenomena within a certain span of time within a specified location or an area.(Varnes,1984) 致灾因子地图所描画的地带是根据特定位置或区域、在特定的时间跨度内潜在的破坏情况发生的概率来确定的,Factors to consider in understanding the nature and behavior of hazards 理解致灾因子的性质和表现时考虑的因素,Seasonality 季节性 Duration 持续时间,Origin 起因 Warning Signs and signals 警告标志和信号 Forewarning 预警 Force 力量 Speed of Onset 发生的速度 Frequency 频率,HAZARD ASSESSEMENT EXAMPLE LANDSLIDES 致灾因子评估范例-山体滑坡,presence of active or potential slope movement/s 活跃或潜在的斜坡移动出现 the types and causes of movement 移动的类型和起因 accurate evaluation of the geology, hydro-geology, landforms, slope gradient etc.地质学、水文地质学、地形、倾斜度的准确评估等 interrelated factors such as environmental conditions and human activities. 交关因素譬如环境状况和人类活动,Recognition of the 认识,Available tools to asses the Landslide Hazard 评估山体滑坡致灾因子时可利用的工具,Map analysis 地图分析 Analysis of aerial photography and imagery 航空照片和影像分析 Field reconnaissance 野外勘察 Aerial reconnaissance 航空勘察 Drilling 演练 Acoustic imagery and profiling 声学描述和概览 Geophysical studies 地球物理学研究 Computerized landslide terrain analysis 计算机化的山体滑坡地形分析 Instrumentation 仪器使用,Data presentation 数据介绍,Methods to be considered. 应该考虑的方法 Maps 地图 Landslide inventories, landslide possibility maps, flood hazard maps山体滑坡记录、山体滑坡可能性地图、洪水致灾因子地图 Cross sections 横截面 GIS and Remote Sensing 地理信息系统和遥感 Participatory Risk Assessment (PRA)参与式风险评估,Participatory Risk Assessment Tools 参与式风险评估工具,Review of secondary data, particularly regional/provincial information related to hazards, risks, vulnerabilities and capacities 检查次要数据，尤其与致灾因子、风险、易损性和能力有关的地区/省的信息 Historical Profile Mapping Transect 历史简介 绘图 横端面 Seasonal Calendar 季节日历 Institutional and Social Network Analysis 机构和社会网络分析 Health and Nutritional Assessment 卫生和营养评估 Livelihoods/coping analysis 生计/应对分析 Problem Tree 问题树 Ranking 排序 HVCA 致灾因子/易损性/能力评估,General Information on community level 社区的一般信息,Specific Information at community, household and individual leve