MacroEconomic房地产.pptVIP

The news report about real estate,Macro Economic Report,The fifth group,Real Estate,1、近几年房地产状况 Real estate conditions of recent years,Real estate conditions of recent years,近几年房屋销售价格指数Sale price index图（反映了一段时间内房屋价格的涨跌幅度）,Real estate conditions of recent years,建筑行业的产值已占国民经济的22%左右，2009年中国GDP为33.5万亿元，同比增长8.7%，而建筑行业产值为7.6万亿元，同比增长22.3%。 2009年建筑行业总产值增加1.38万亿元，占我国GDP增加值的51.6%，建筑行业对我国GDP增长的贡献在20%30% output value of the construction industry accounts for about 22% of the national economy, Chinas GDP in 2009 was 33.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, while the construction industry output value is 7.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.3% In 2009, the total output value of the construction industry increased by 1.38 trillion yuan, accounting for 51.6% of the added value of Chinas GDP, the construction industrys contribution to Chinas GDP growth in the 20% -30%,Reasons of the quick increase of housing price,The quick increase of housing price,Real Estate,2、现状分析 Analysis of the Present,Analysis of the Present,2011年四季度至2012年上半年楼市量价走势示意图,Analysis of the Present,历经18个月调控后，商品房房价平稳销售放缓,Analysis of the Present,房地产顾问机构发布了当前中国房地产形势及四季度之后市场走势研判研究报告。报告指出，中国经济继续在向“低增长高通胀”的区间滑行，中国经济仍没有摆脱进入滞涨的危险。中国房地产开始进入库存周期，房价未出现实质性的下降、CPI未有大幅度的下降、保障房未大量供给这三个条件决定了本轮的行业调控还将持续进行。 The production consultant agency released a research report that “current market trend after the real estate situation in China and the fourth quarter of judgments“. The report pointed out that Chinas economy continues to glide to the range of low growth and high inflation, “the Chinese economy is still not free from the danger of entering stagflation. Chinese real estate has begun to enter the inventory cycle time ,it dose not appear substantial decline in the price、CPI dose not have a significant drop and security room is not given，which determine the continuance of real estate adjustment.,Analysis of the Present,Central Regulation of Real Estate,Economic Development,Real Estate Trends,Increase of Domestic Rates,The housing price keep rising！,Real Estate,3、未来预测 Future projections,Future projections,2012：全国十大重点城市9月前三周商品住宅总成交量为55042套，环比8月前三周下降了10%,Future projections,Future projections,第一，房价将逐步回归理性，呈现平稳渐进发展的趋势。 First, house prices will gradually return to rational, showing the trend of steady and gradual development. 第二，保障性住房将得到加强。 Second, affordable housing will be strengthened. 第三，中国房地产在10年代会经历较快的发展过程。 Third, Chinas real estate will be in 10 years has experienced a rapid development process. 第四，目前的房地产价格基本已经达到高位顶点。 Fourth, the current basic real estate prices have reached high vertex.,受国家宏观调控政策的影响，我国房地产企业在未来面临诸多更加严峻的挑战 The influence of the national macro-control policies, Chinas real estate enterprises face many tougher challenges in the future,Real estate companies are facing the challenge,Real estate companies are facing the challenge,第一，资金回笼周期长。 First, the long cycle of capital returns. 第二，企业面临融资的困难。 Second, enterprises are facing financing difficulties. 第三，企业面临销售收缩的困境。 Third, enterprises are faced with the sales contraction plight.,Four Factors,Factors influencing the real estate price,Factors influencing the real estate price,一、信贷政策对房价的影响 The influence of the credit policy to the house 房地产市场最大的特点就是其供给和需求都很大程度上受信贷的制约，这主要是由于在房地产市场中购房者利用按揭等方式利用银行贷款进行购房。 The biggest characteristic of the real estate market is its supply and demand are largely influenced by credit restriction, this is mainly because the real estate market, the person that buy a house mortgage, etc by using bank loans to purchase,二、价格预期对房价的影响 The influence of prices excepted to house 购房者对房价的预期，购房者如果预期房价将上涨对于投资需求的购房者来说投资利润率就会上升，利润率与利率的差就会变大投资需求增加 The person that buy a house if expected prices will rise ,and for investment demand of the person that buy a house, the investment rate will rise, profit rate and interest rate differential will become big and the investment demand will increase.,Factors influencing the real estate price,三、利率、汇率和通货膨胀对房价的影响 the influence of Interest rate, exchange rate to house prices 利率对房价的影响主要是利率同时影响房地产的供给和需求；汇率对房地产的影响主要表现在，本国货币持续升值和预期上,本国货币处于长期的升值过程中对本国货币的需求就会增加，由投资需求增加而带动消费需求的增加，会刺激供给的增加导致房价上涨。 The interest rate on house prices have a main influence on the real estate supply and demand.The exchange rate also have an effect on real estate market,because domestic currency continue to rise now or in the future on expected,and at the same time the demand will increase.So,the investment demand increase will promote the consumption demand increase.Then the price of house also will increase.,Factors influencing the real estate price,四、土地制度及政策 Land system and policy 政府每年的土地供给计划影响土地的供给量，进而影响地价。土地的出让方式和出让期限也会影响到地价。 Land supply plan of the goverment affect the land supply.Then,it will influence the land price. Land transfer mode and the time limit for the selling can also affect the land price.,Factors influencing the real estate price,Nearly 10 years of macro policy development context,近10年来房地产调控政策脉络 从2003年开始，我国房地产市场进入新一轮持续性的调控期，并延续至今。这期间经历了“紧缩“-“鼓励“-“再从紧“的调控思路转换。具体来说，2003年以来，我国房地产调控基本可以概括为六个阶段： from 2003, Chinas real estate market into a new round of ongoing regulation period and continues to this day. This was experienced during the conversion the regulation idea of “austerity“ - “encouraging“ - “tight“. Specifically, since 2003, Chinas real estate regulation can be basically summarized as six stages:,（1）紧缩预警期：2003年房地产调控以提示风险为主 Deflation warning period: 2003 real estate regulation to prompt risk. （2）试探调整期：2004年通过收紧土地、信贷来抑制投资的试探性调控 The tentative regulation of exploratory adjustment period: 2004 to inhibit investment by tightening of the land, credit. （3）实质调控期：20052007年转向抑制投资投机需求、控制房价涨幅 Real control period: from 2005 to 2007 turned to curb speculative investment demand to control the price rise.,Nearly 10 years of macro policy development context,（4）调控观望期：2008年前三季度调控进入政策静默期，观察调控效果 The regulation of wait-and-see period: the first three quarters of 2008, the regulation into the policy quiet period to observe the regulatory effects （5）救市鼓励期：2008年四季度起，根据国内外经济形势保增长救楼市 Bailout encouraging period: from the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the economic situation at home and abroad to maintain growth to save the property market （6）全面调控期：2010年“三轮“调控，遏制房价过快上涨 Comprehensive regulation period: “Three“ regulations of 2010 to curb housing prices,Nearly 10 years of macro policy development context,第一轮调控初衷始于2009年12月7日的中央经济工作会议，针对2009年四季度以来全国各地出现不同程度的房价上涨过快、投资投机行为严重等问题，以国务院办公厅1月7日关于促进房地产市场平稳健康发展的通知（简称“国十一条“）为标志，以