企业偿债能力分析——051108.ppt

1,第五章 企业偿债能力分析,2,第一节 概述,Credit Analysis,Liquidity Ability to meet short-term obligations Focus: Current Financial conditions Current cash flows Liquidity of assets,Solvency Ability to meet long-term obligations Focus: Long-term financial conditions Long-term cash flows Extended profitability,Credit worthiness: Ability to honor credit obligations,Credit Analysis,Seniority（优先级） - order claims are paid Collateral - asset earmarked for claims Covenants （契约性限制） - constraints on debtors to protect creditors Other provisions - sinking fund requirements, etc.,Debt Characteristics,5,IV. Credit Risk & Capital Structure,A. Credit risk refers to the ability and willingness of a borrower to pay its debt.,6,IV. Credit Risk & Capital Structure,A. Credit risk refers to the ability and willingness of a borrower to pay its debt.,1. Ability to repay debt is determined by capacity to generate cash from operations, asset sales, or external financial markets in excess of cash needs.,7,IV. Credit Risk & Capital Structure,A. Credit risk refers to the ability and willingness of a borrower to pay its debt.,2. Willingness to pay depends on which competing cash need is viewed as the most pressing（紧迫的） at the moment.,8,IV. Credit Risk & Capital Structure,3. The statement of cash flows is an important source of information for analyzing a companys credit risk. Financial ratios are also useful for this purpose.,A. Credit risk refers to the ability and willingness of a borrower to pay its debt.,9,IV. Credit Risk & Capital Structure,B. Credit risk analysis using financial ratios typically involves an assessment of liquidity and solvency.,1. Liquidity refers to the companys short-term ability to generate cash for working capital needs and immediate debt repayment needs.,10,IV. Credit Risk & Capital Structure,B. Credit risk analysis using financial ratios typically involves an assessment of liquidity and solvency.,2. Solvency refers to the long-term ability to generate cash internally or from external sources in order to satisfy plant capacity needs, fuel growth, and repay debt when due.,Cash Equivalents Short-term, highly liquid investments that are: Readily convertible to a known cash amount. Close to maturity date and not sensitive to interest rate changes.,Current Asset Introduction,Cash, Cash Equivalents and Liquidity, Assessment of earnings quality is often affected by an analysis of receivables and their collectibility Analysis must be alert to changes in the allowancecomputed relative to sales, receivables, or industry and market conditions. Two special analysis questions:,Current Asset Introduction,Analyzing Receivables,(1) Authenticity of Receivables Review credit policy for changes Review return policies for changes Review any contingencies on receivables,Current Asset Introduction,Analyzing Receivables,(2) Collection Risk Review allowance for uncollectibles in light of industry conditions Apply special tools for analyzing collectibility: Determining competitors receivables as a percent of sales Examining customer concentrationrisk increases when receivables are concentrated in one or a few customers Investigating the age pattern of receivablesoverdue and for how long Determining portion of receivables that is a renewal of prior receivables,Current Asset Introduction,Analyzing Receivables, Purchase Commitments are contracts with other entities to purchase inventory several months or years in advance Accounting does not reflect these commitments since title to the goods has not passed to the buyer Disclosure exists for certain noncancelable purchase commitments,Inventories,Inventory Purchase Commitments, Inventory includes accumulation of costs under long-term contractsreduced by billings Two common methods of accounting for these inventory costs Completed-contract method Percentage-of-completion method,Inventories,Inventory under Long-Term Contracts,Held-to-Maturity,Controlling Interest (above 50% holding),Classification,Investment Securities,Investment Securities,Debt Securities,Equity Securities,Available-for-Sale,Trading,Significant Influence (between 20% and 50% holding),No Influence (below 20% holding) - Trading - Available-for-Sale,Investment Securities,Classification and Accounting for Equity Securities,Derivative Securities,commodity price risk,foreign currency risk,interest rate risk,Background,Market risks,Derivative Securities,Hedges are contracts that seek to insulate companies from market riskssecurities such as futures, options, and swaps are commonly used as hedges,Background,Derivative Securities,Derivative securities, or simply derivatives, are contracts whose value is derived from the value of another asset or economic item such as a stock, bond, commodity price, interest rate, or currency exchange rate they can expose companies to considerable risk because it can be difficult to find a derivative that entirely hedges the risks or because the parties to the derivative contract fail to understand the risk exposures,Background,Long-Lived Asset Introduction,Capitalizationprocess of deferring a cost that is incurred in the current period and whose benefits are expected to extend to one or more future periods. For a cost to be capitalized, it must meet each of the following criteria: It must arise from a past transaction or event It must yield identifiable and reasonably probable future benefits It must allow owner (restrictive) control over future benefits,Capitalization,Long-Lived Asset Introduction,Impairmentprocess of writing down asset value when its value-in-use falls below its carrying (book) value. Two distortions arise from impairment: Conservative biases distort long-lived asset valuation because assets are written down but not written up. Earnings management opportunities increase in a trade-off for more useful balance sheets,Impairment,Long-Lived Asset Introduction,Capitalizing versus Expensing: An Illustration,Capitalizing versus Expensing Example: Income and Ratios with and without Capitalization,Patents Copyrights Leaseholds Leasehold Improvements Goodwill Trademarks and Trade Names,Record at cost, including purchase price, legal fees, and filing fees.,Intangible Assets,Accounting for Intangible Assets,Intangible Assets,Goodwill, Goodwill is the value assigned to a rate of earnings above the norm-it translates into excess earnings called superearnings. Goodwill (1) can be a sizable asset, (2) is recorded only upon purchase of another entity or segment, and (3) varies considerably in composition New Accounting Std: Goodwill is no longer amortized annually, but written down when impaired,27,Corporate Debt,Bank loans Accounts Payable Commercial Paper Other current liabilities Corporate Bonds Other long-term market debt Other liabilities,28,第二节 短期偿债能力,29,一、短期偿债能力的概念,短期偿债能力是指企业用流动资产偿还流动负债的保障程度。 一个企业的短期偿债能力大小，要看流动资产和流动负债的多少和质量状况。,Company Liquidity refers to the ability to meet short-term obligations Liquidity is the ability to convert assets into cash or to obtain cash,Liquidity and Working Capital,Basics,Liquidity is a matter of degree Lack of liquidity can limit Advantages of favorable discounts Profitable opportunities Management actions Coverage of current obligations,Liquidity and Working Capital,Basics,Severe illiquidity often precedes（先于） Lower profitability Restricted opportunities Loss of owner control Loss of capital investment Insolvency（无力偿债） and bankruptcy,Liquidity and Working Capital,Basics,33,短期偿债能力是企业的任何利益关系人都应重视的问题 对企业的债权人来说，企业短期偿债能力的强弱意味着本金与利息能否按期收回。 对企业的供应商和消费者来说，企业短期偿债能力的强弱意味着企业履行合同能力的强弱。 对投资者来说，短期偿债能力的强弱意味着投资的安全程度。 对企业管理者来说，短期偿债能力的强弱意味着企业承受财务风险的能力大小。,Working capital is defined as the excess of current assets over current liabilities Widely used measure of short-term liquidity Deficient when current liabilities exceed current assets In surplus when current assets exceed current liabilities A margin of safety for creditors A liquid reserve to meet contingencies and uncertainties A constraint for technical default in many debt agreements,Liquidity and Working Capital,Working Capital,Working capital more relevant when related to other key variables such as Sales Total assets Working capital is of limited value as an absolute amount,Liquidity and Working Capital,Working Capital,Current Ratio Reflects on: Current liability coverage - assurance in covering current liabilities Buffer against losses - margin of safety for shrinkage in noncash current assets Reserve of liquid funds -margin of safety against uncertainties and shocks to cash flows,Liquidity and Working Capital,Current Ratio,Current Ratio Limitations: If liquidity is the ability to meet cash outflows with adequate cash inflows, then does the current ratio: Measure and predict the pattern of future cash inflows and outflows? Measure the adequacy of future cash inflows to outflows? Answer is generally no to both these questions Current ratio Is a static measure Does not have a causal relation to future cash inflows,Liquidity and Working Capital,Current Ratio,Current Ratio Limitations in Numerator Adjustments often needed to counter various limitations such as Failure to reflect open lines of credit(信用贷款之最高限额) Adjust securities valuation since the balance sheet date Reflect revolving nature of accounts receivable Recognize profit margin in inventory Adjust inventory values to market Remove deferred charges of dubious liquidity from prepaid expenses,Liquidity and Working Capital,Current Ratio,Three important qualifications 1. Liquidity depends to a large extent on prospective cash flows 2. No direct relation between working capital account balances and patterns of future cash flows 3. Managerial policies are directed primarily at efficient and profitable asset utilization and secondly at liquidity 4. Cash flow forecasts and pro forma financial statements are preferred over the current ratio for liquidity and solvency analysis 5. Current ratio is a static measure of the ability of current assets to satisfy current liabilities,Liquidity and Working Capital,Current Ratio,Two important elements are integral to use of the current ratio 1. Quality of both current assets and current liabilities 2. Turnover rate of both current assets and current liabilities,Liquidity and Working Capital,Current Ratio,Comparative Analysis Two useful tools in analyzing the trend in the current ratio Trend analysis - components of working capital and the current ratio are converted to indexes and examined over time Common-size analysis - composition of current assets is examined over time,Liquidity and Working Capital,Current Ratio - Applications,Ratio Management (window dressing) Examples are: Press the collection of receivables at year-end Call in advances to officers for temporary repayment Reduce inventory below normal levels Delay normal purchases Proceeds from these activities are then used to pay off current liabilities,Liquidity and Working Capital,Current Ratio - Applications,Rule of Thumb(单凭经验的方法) Analysis (2:1) 2:1 superior coverage of current liabilities (but not too high, suggesting inefficient use of resources and reduced returns) 2:1 deficient coverage of current liabilities,Liquidity and Working Capital,Current Ratio - Applications,Net Trade Cycle Analysis Working capital requirements are affected by its desired inventory investment and the relation between credit terms from suppliers and those extended to customers,Liquidity and Working Capital,Current Ratio - Applications,Net Trade CycleIllustration Selected financial information from Technology Resources, Inc., for the end of Year 1 is reproduced below: Sales for Year 1 $360,000 Receivables 40,000 Inventories* 50,000 Accounts payable 20,000 Cost of goods sold (including depreciation of $30,000) 320,000 *Beginning inventory is $100,000. We assume these relate to purchases included in cost of goods sold. We estimate Technology Resources purchases per day as: Purchases per day = $240,000 360 = $666.67 The net trade cycle for Technology Resources is computed as (in days):,Liquidity and Working Capital,Current Ratio - Applications,Sales Trend Analysis Trend analysis review of sales trend across time,Liquidity and Working Capital,Current Ratio - Applications,Cash to Current Assets Ratio Larger the ratio, the more liquid are current assets,Liquidity and Working Capital,Cash-Based Ratio of Liquidity,Cash to Current Liabilities Ratio Larger the ratio, the more cash available to pay current obligations,Liquidity and Working Capital,Cash-Based Ratio of Liquidity,Accounts Receivable Turnover,Operating Activity Analysis of Liquidity,Accounts Receivable Liquidity,Operating Activity Analysis of Liquidity,Accounts Receivable Liquidity,Source: Dun & Bradstreet,Acid-Test (Quick) Ratio,Is a more stringent test of liquidity vis-vis current ratio,Additional Liquidity Measures,Acid-Test (Quick) Ratio,Additional Liquidity Measures,Source: Dun & Bradstreet,(Cash + Account Receivables/Current Liabilities),53,在计算速动比率时要把存货从流动资产中剔除，其主要原因是： 在流动资产中存货的变现速度最慢； 由于某种原因；存货中可能含有已损失报废但还没作处理的不能变现的存货； 部分存货可能已抵押给某债权人； 存货估价还存在着成本与合理市价相差悬殊的问题。,Acid-Test (Quick) Ratio,54,速动比率也有其局限性。 速动比率只是揭示了速动资产与流动负债的关系，是一个静态指标。 速动资产中包含了流动性较差的应收账款，使速动比率所反映的偿债能力受到怀疑。特别是当速动资产中含有大量不良应收账款时，必然会减弱企业的短期偿债能力。 各种预付款项及预付费用的变现能力也很差。,Acid-Test (Quick) Ratio,Financial Flexibility,Financial flexibility - ability of a company to take steps to counter unexpected interruptions in the flow of funds Focus of analysis: Ability to borrow from various sources To raise equity capital To sell and redeploy assets To adjust the level and direction of operations to meet changing circumstances Levels of prearranged financing and open lines of credit(信用贷款之最高限额),Additional Liquidity Measures,56,Use this information to calculate the liquidity ratios for Norton Corporation.,57,Working capital represents current assets financed from long-term capital sources that do not require near-term repayment.,Working Capital,58,This ratio measures the short-term debt-paying ability of the company.,Current Ratio,59,Quick assets are Cash, Short-Term Investments, and Current Receivables.,This ratio is like the current ratio but excludes current assets such as inventories and prepaid expenses that may be difficult to quickly convert into cash.,Acid-Test Ratio,60,This ratio measures how many times a company converts its receivables into cash each year.,Accounts Receivable Turnover,61,This ratio measures the number of times merchandise is sold and replaced during the year.,Inventory Turnover,62,This ratio measures the liquidity of receivables.,Days Sales Uncollected,=,Accounts Receivable Net Sales,365,Days Sales Uncollected,=,$20,000 $494,000, 365 = 14.8 days,Days Sales Uncollected,63,三、短期偿债能力的分析,同业比较分析 历史比较分析 预算比较分析 影响短期偿债能力的表外因素,64,同业比较分析,同业比较包括同业先进水平、同业平均水平和竞争对手比较三类，它们的原理是一样的，只是比较标准不同。 同业比较分析有两个重要的前提： 一是如何确定同类企业 二是如何确定行业标准,65,历史比较分析,历史比较分析采用的比较标准是过去某一时点的短期偿债能力的实际指标值。 比较标准可以是企业历史最好水平，也可以是企业正常经营条件下的实际值。在分析时，经常采用与上年实际指标进行对比。 采用历史比较分析的优点： 一是比较基础可靠，历史指标是企业曾经达到的水平，通过比较，可以观察企业偿债能力的变动趋势； 二是具有较强的可比性，便于找出问题。,66,其缺点： 一是历史指标只能代表过去的实际水平，不能代表合理水平。因此，历史比较分析主要通过比较，揭示差异，分析原因，推断趋势； 二是经营环境变动后，也会减弱历史比较的可比性。,历史比较分析,67,预算比较分析,预算比较分析是指对企业指标的本期实际值与预算值所进行的比较分析。 预算标准是企业根据自身经营条件和经营状况制定的目标。 缺点： 预算标准很难排除人为因素的影响 预算比较分析对外部人员没有意义,68,影响短期偿债能力的表外因素,增加变现能力的因素 可动用的银行贷款指标 准备很快变现的长期资产 偿债能力的声誉 减少变现能力的因素 已贴现商业承兑汇票形成的或有负债 未决诉讼、仲裁形成的或有负债 为其他单位提供债务担保形成的或有负债,69,第三讲 长期偿债能力分析,Solvency - long-run financial viability and its ability to cover long-term obligations Capital structure - financing sources and their attributes Earning power recurring ability to generate cash from operations Loan covenants（契约） protection against insolvency and financial distress; they define default (and the legal remedies（补救） available when it occurs) to allow the opportunity to collect on a loan before severe distress,Basic of Solvency,Equity financing Risk capital of a company Uncertain and unspecified return Lack of any repayment pattern Contributes to a companys stability and solvency Debt financing Must be repaid with interest Specified repayment pattern When the proportion of debt financing is higher, the higher are the resulting fixed charges and repayment commitments（承担的义务）,Basic of Solvency,Capital Structure,From a shareholders perspective, debt financing is less expensive than equity financing because: 1.Financial Leverage-Interest on most debt is fixed, and provided interest is less than the return earned from debt financing, the excess return goes to equity investors 2.Tax Deductibility of Interest-Interest is a tax-deductible expense whereas dividends are not,Basic of Solvency,Motivation for Debt,Leverage - use of debt to increase net income Leverage: Magnifies（放大） both managerial success (profits) and failure (losses) Increases risks Limits flexibility in pursuing opportunities Decreases creditors protection against loss Companies with leverage are said to be trading on the equity a company is using equity financing to obtain debt financing in a desire to reap returns above the cost of debt.,Basic of Solvency,Financial Leverage,Financial Leverage Ratio Greater the proportion of financing from equity vs. debt lower the financial leverage ratio,Basic of Solvency,Financial Leverage,Potential accounts needing adjustments Deferred Income Taxes Is it a liability, equity, or some of both? Operating Leases - capitalize non-cancelable operating leases? OffBalanceSheet Financing Pensions and Postretirement Benefits Unconsolidated Subsidiaries Contingent Liabilities Minority Interests Convertible Debt Preferred Stock,Basic of Solvency,Adjustments for Capital Structure - Liabilities,Potential accounts needing adjustments InventoriesLIFO Reserve? Marketable Securities Intangible Assets,Basic of Solvency,Adjustments for Capital Structure - Assets,P