lesson-8-Seeing-the-back-of-the-car.doc

Seeing the back of the car看看汽车业的未来In the rich world, people seem to be driving less than they used to在西方富有世界，人们似乎不像以前那样频繁驾车出行了。Sep 22nd 2012 | from the print edition 1.“ILL love and protect this car until death do us part,” says Toad, a 17-year-old loser whose life is briefly transformed by a “super fine” 1958 Chevy Impala in “American Graffiti”. The film follows him, his friends and their vehicles through a late summer night in early 1960s California: cruising the main drag, racing on the back streets and necking in back seats of machines which embody not just speed, prosperity and freedom but also adulthood, status and sex.一名17岁的失败者，图德说，“我将会爱护这辆车并且保护它，一直到死亡把我们分开为止”，他的生活由于“美国风情画”中的一辆1958年的超精细雪佛兰羚羊而完全改变了。这部电影带着他，他的朋友们和他们的车穿越到了二十世纪六十年代加州，一个夏天的夜晚：快而平衡地穿过那里的主要街道，在破旧的街巷中飙车，在汽车后座位上拥吻，这辆车体现的不仅仅是速度，财富和自由，还有成年的宣告，社会地位和性关系的成熟。2.The movie was set in an age when owning wheels was a norm deeply desired and newly achievable. Since then car ownership has grown apace. There are now more than 1 billion cars in the world, and the number is likely to roughly double by 2020. They are cheaper, faster, safer and more comfortable than ever before.当时这部电影的制作背景是-拥有辆车的深深渴望和它代表的一种新型的成就。从那时起，汽车保有量是益增长。全世界现在的汽车数量超过了10亿辆，到2020年这个数字大概会翻一翻。相比于以前，现在的汽车更便宜，速度更快，配置更安全，而且更加舒适。3. Cars are integral to modern life. They account for 70% of all journeys not made on foot in the OECD, which includes most developed countries. In the European Union more than 12m people work in manufacturing and services related to cars and other vehicles, around 6% of the total employed population; the equivalent figure for America is 4.5% of private-sector employment, or 8m jobs. They dominate household economies too: aside from rent or mortgage payments, transport costs are the single biggest weekly outlay, and most of those costs normally come from cars.汽车已成为现代生活不可或缺的一部分。经合组织-包括了大部分发展国家-调查显示，非徒步旅行者中有70%的人选择了汽车出行。在欧盟，超过1200万人在汽车及其他车辆相关的制造和服务行业中工作，占了整个就业人口的6%。美国从事类似行业的人数达到了800百，占了私人企业就业率的4.5%。他们也是家庭经济的主要支出：除了支付房租或者抵押贷款，交通开支是家庭的周最大单一开支，而且这些开支的大部分都来自于汽车。4.Nearly 60m new cars were added to the worlds stock in 2011. People in Asia, Latin America and Africa are buying cars pretty much as fast as they can afford to, and as more can afford to, more will buy.2011年，全世界股市有近6000万辆新车加入。在亚洲，拉丁美洲和非洲，人们只要能负担得起就会马上买车，当他们的购买力越来越高时，购买的人也会越来越多。5.But in the rich world the cars previously inexorable rise is stalling. A growing body of academics cite the possibility that both car ownership and vehicle-kilometres driven may be reaching saturation in developed countriesor even be on the wane, a notion known as “peak car”.但是在富裕世界，以前汽车销售上的猛升趋势正在跌停。越来越多的学者都有引证一种可能性-即发达国家的汽车保有量和行驶里程数可能都会达到饱和-或者甚至会慢慢减少，一种被称为“汽车峰值”的现象。6.Recession and high fuel prices have markedly cut distances driven in many countries since 2008, including America, Britain, France and Sweden. But more profound and longer-run changes underlie recent trends. Most forecasts still predict that when the recovery comes, people will drive as much and in the same way as they ever have. But that may not be true.从2008年起，经济衰退和高油价明显得减少了许多国家私家车的行驶里程数，包括美国，英国，法国和瑞典。但是最近的趋势是由于更多的深层次和长期的变化造成的。大多的预报仍旧预示着，当经济慢慢恢复时，人们会像以前一样，频繁地使用汽车。但是这些预测只是预测罢了。7.As a general trend, car ownership and kilometres travelled have been increasing throughout the rich world since the 1950s. Short-term factors like the 1970s oil-price shock caused temporary dips, but vehicle use soon recovered.作为总趋势，从二十世纪五十年代以来，所有富裕国家的汽车保有量和行驶公里数一直在上升。类似二十世纪七十年代石油价格危机的短期危机引起的临时减少，但是车辆的使用情况恢复得很快。8.The current fall in car use has doubtless been exacerbated by recession. But it seems to have started before the crisis. A March 2012 study for the Australian governmentwhich has been at the forefront of international efforts to tease out peak-car issuessuggested that 20 countries in the rich world show a “saturating trend” to vehicle-kilometres travelled. After decades when each individual was on average travelling farther every year, growth per person has slowed distinctly, and in many cases stopped altogether.最近汽车使用方面的下降无疑由于经济衰退而加剧了。但是这个情况似乎在危机以前就开始了。2012年3月对澳大利亚政府的研究显示（澳政府在整理汽车最高使用量方面已经走在了国际各方努力前沿），在富有世界的20个国家，行驶公里数已趋于饱和。数十年后，每个人汽车的年均行驶里程将会更多，购买汽车的个人也会逐渐放缓，而且在许多方面将会完全停止。9.There are different measures of saturation: total distance driven, distance per driver and total trips made. The statistics are striking on each of these counts even in America, still the most car-mad country in the world. There, total vehicle-kilometres travelled began to plateau in 2004 and fall from 2007; measured per person, growth flatlined sooner, after 2000, and dropped after 2004 before recovering somewhat (see chart). The number of trips has fallen, mostly because of a decline in commuting and shopping (of the non-virtual variety).衡量是否达到饱和，还有些不同的检查方法：总行驶距离，平远行驶里程和总旅次。各国这些数据的统计，甚至美国（这个仍旧是世界上最大的汽车制造国），都令人震惊。在美国，总的车辆行驶公里数在2004年达到平衡期，从2007年开始下跌；以人均算，从2000年后行驶里程数增长很快，但是，2004年后开始降低，直到前几些才有所恢复。总旅次一直在下降，大多由于上下班往返和（非虚拟用品）购物次数的减少。10.Britain, another nation that measures such things obsessively, has a similar arc. Kilometres travelled per person were stable or falling through most of the 2000s. Total traffic has not increased for a decade, despite a growing population. For the past 15 years Britons have been making fewer journeys; they now go out in cars only slightly more often than in the 1970s. Pre-recession declines in per-person travel were also recorded in France, Spain, Italy, Australia, New Zealand and Belgium.另一个测量这些让人困扰的数值的国家-英国的情况和美国类似。人均行驶里程以前很稳定，或者在2000年间的大部分时间在下跌。尽管人口在增长，但是过去十年间的总流量没有增长。过去15年间，英国人几乎都不怎么旅行了。相比于二十世纪七十年代，他们的驾车出行量只是略有增长。法国，西班牙，澳大利亚，新西兰和比利时这些国家，经济衰退前的个人出行同样也是如此。11.Saturation of car ownership over time is one explanation. The current cohort of retireesToad from “American Graffiti”, having faked his death in Vietnam, is now 67is the first in which most people drove. So more retired people drive now than ever before. In Britain 79% of people in their 60s hold licences, which is higher than the figure for the driving-age population as a whole; in America more than 90% of people aged 60-64 can drive, a larger share than for any other cohort. New generations of drivers will replace old ones rather than add to the total number.随着时间的推移，汽车保有量的饱和也是原因之一。目前退役的汽车都是世界上的首批产品（美国风情画中，在越南假死的terry现在已经67岁了），大部分人都驾驶过。现在驾驶汽车的退休人员比以往任何时候都多。在英国，79%的人在他们60多岁时才拿到他们的驾照，这个数字比作为整体的驾龄人口数字都高。在美国，60-64岁的人口中超过90%的人都开车，在全部驾车人数中，占的份额比其他年龄段的驾车人数都多。新一代的驾车人员将会取代那些老司机，而不是增加驾车人员的总数。12.Then there is a second trend. All over the rich world, young people are getting their licences later than they used toin America (see chart) and also in Britain, Canada, France, Norway, South Korea and Sweden. Even in Germany, car-culture-vulture of Europe, the share of young households without cars increased from 20% to 28% between 1998 and 2008. Unsurprisingly, this goes along with driving less. American youngsters with jobs drive less far and less often than before the recession. 16- to 34-year-olds in American households with incomes over $70,000 increased their public-transport use by 100% from 2001 to 2009, according to the Frontier Group, a think-tank.届时也有另一个趋势。在富裕的世界里，年轻人们拿到他们驾照的时间比以前的同龄人晚-在美国是这样，在英国，加拿大，法国，挪威，韩国和瑞典都是如此。甚至在德国-欧洲的汽车文化秃鹰，无汽车的年轻家庭从1998年的20%增加到了2008年的28%。意料之中的是，伴随着这种现象的还有驾车频率的减少。相比于经济衰退前，美国在职年轻人的行驶里程和驾车次数都在减少。根据一家咨询机构-美国先锋集团的研究，从2001年到2009年，年收入超过70,000美元的美国家庭中，16-34岁的家庭成员在公共交通的使用上增长了100%。13.Cost is one factor: fuel prices have risen for all; insurance premiums for the young have soared. Youth unemployment has not helped. But there is also the influence of a new kid on the block: the internet. A University of Michigan survey of 15 countries found that in areas where a lot of young people use the internet, fewer than normal have driving licences. A global survey of teen attitudes by TNS, a consultancy, found that young people increasingly view cars as appliances not aspirations, and say that social media give them the access to their world that would once have been associated with cars. KCR, a research firm, has found that in America far more 18- to 34-year-olds than any other age group say socialising online is a substitute for some car trips.花费是其中一个因素：所有的燃油价格都在上涨；年轻人的保险费用全面飙升。年轻人的失业问题仍没有缓解。但是，还有一个新生事物也对此产生了影响：因特网。密西安大学对15个国家的调查显示，在这些地方大部分年轻人都有使用互联网，除了正常的驾车人员有驾照外，几乎没人申请。由一家咨询机构，特恩斯市场研究咨询对全球年轻人态度的调查发现，越来越多的年轻人认为，汽车只是个家用电器，购买欲望已经没有以前那么强烈了。这份调查还表示，社交媒体的普及让他们更容易进入这个曾经一度与汽车密不可分的世界。一家市场研究公司-KCR-对美国不同年龄段人调查发现，认为社交网络可以替代汽车出行的人中，18-34年龄段的人最多。14.Even without changing absolute numbers, however, age can still play a role in patterns of use. Though more older people drive than used to, per person they also tend to drive less. And so, if people keep getting their licences later, may everyone else. The later people pass their test, the less far they drive even once they can, according to Gordon Stokes of Oxford University. He says people in Britain who learn in their late 20s drive 30% less than those who learn a decade earlier.然而，甚至在绝对数值不发生变化的情况下，年龄仍旧在汽车使用中占有重点的作用。虽然现在开车的老年人比以前多，但是他们人均行驶里程却也在减少。同理，如果人们申请驾照的年龄越来越大，那么人均行驶里程也会减少。根据牛津大学的乔登-斯图克的发现，人们越迟通过驾驶测试，那么就算他们可以，他们的行驶里程也会越少。他认为，现在的英国人中，在他们近三十岁学习驾驶的人比十年前同龄学驾驶的人少了30%。15.Geography matters too. In most rich countries car use has been stable or increasing in rural areas, where driving still offers freedom and convenience. It is in cities, especially their centres, that car ownership and use is declining. And city living is on the rise: the OECD, a rich-country think-tank, expects that by 2050, 86% of the rich worlds population will live in urban areas, up from 77% in 2010.地理也很重要。在大部分富有国家里，农村地区汽车的使用一直保持稳定甚至在增长，因为在那里，开车出行仍旧让人们感觉到自由和方便。而在城市里，特别是市中心，汽车的保有量和使用正在下降。而且城市生活水准却在上升。经合组织-一个富有国家的智库，预计到2050年，富有国家人口的85%将居住在城镇，相比于2010年上升了77%。16.In America the share of metropolitan residents without a car has grown since the mid-1990s: 13% of people in cities of more than 3m people have no car while only 6% in rural areas live without one. In London car ownership has been falling since 1990, with a plateau from 1995 to 2005; the percentage of households without cars has been growing since 1992. In other British cities the proportion of carless households has been growing since 2005. Car use has fallen in many European cities.在美国，自从二十世纪九十年代以来，城市居民中无车一族的比例一直在上升。超过三百万的城市居民没有买车，占城市总人口的13%，而在农村无车一族只占6%。在伦敦，自1990年以来，汽车保有量一直在减少，从1995年到2005年进入了停滞期。从1992年起，无车家庭的百分比一直在增加。在英国其他城市，自2005年起，无车家庭的比例也在上升。在其他欧盟城市中，汽车的使用也在下降。17.There are various reasons for this. Public mass-transit systems are, in the main, faster and more reliable than they used to be, with increased capacity in many cities. This partly reflects increased investment, particularly in rail. For the past 15 years road and rail investment has been about 1% of GDP for OECD countries, but rails share of that has increased from 15% to 23%, says the International Transport Forum.产生这种现象的原因很多。主要的原因是，公共运输系统比以前更加快捷、安全可靠，同时在很多城市，运输系统的容量也在增加。这种现象在一定程度上也反映了公共运输投资的都加，特别是铁路。国际运输论坛认为，在过去15年间，经合组织国家中，公路和铁路总投资约为各国国内生产总值的1%，但是铁路在总投资中的比重从15%上升到了23%。18.More recently, private alternatives to car ownership, notably car clubs, have been spreading across North America and northern Europe. By some estimates one rental car can take the place of 15 owned vehicles. Zipcar, which is the biggest international car-share scheme, has 700,000 members and over 9,000 vehicles. Buzzcar, a French company set up by the Zipcar founder, has 605,000 members sharing 9,000 cars.最近以来，针对拥有汽车的私人替代品，特别是汽车俱乐部的替代品现在已经遍布北美和北欧。把一些估计，一辆租赁汽车能够取代15辆自备车。世界上最大的汽车共享系统，美国网上租车公司拥有700,000会员和超过9,000辆车。由该公司创始人在法国建立的汽车分享公司-布兹卡已经拥有605,000个成员，有9,000辆车给他们共用。19.Perhaps most basic, though, is that in terms of urban living the car has become a victim of its own success. In 1994 the physicist Cesare Marchetti argued that people budget an average travel time of around one hour getting to work; they are unwilling to spend more. For decades cars allowed this budget to go farther. But as suburbs grow and congestion increases most cities eventually hit a “sprawl wall” of too-long commutes beyond which they will not spread far. After that, it appears, a significant number of people start to move back towards the city centre. In America, where over 50% of the population lives in suburbs, more than half the nations 51 largest cities are seeing more growth in the core than outside it, according to William Frey at the Brookings Institution.只是，可能最基本的原因是，就城市生活而言，汽车已经成为它自身成功的受害者了。1994年，物理学家寒萨尔-马尔凯蒂认为，人们把自己的平均出行（即日常活动）时间控制在一小时左右，他们不愿意再花更多的时间在这个上面。数十年以来，汽车把人们的这个时间预算拉长了很多。但是当城镇扩张，堵塞越来越严重时，大部分的城市最后终于产生了由于长时间通勤导致的随意扩张的问题-如果不通勤就不会有这个扩张问题了。此后，事情又有了变化，相当多的人又开始搬回到了城市中心。根据布鲁金斯学会的威廉姆-弗雷的研究，在美国，有超过50%的人中居住在城镇里，这个国家51座大城市中有一大半，市中心的发展都比它外围的发展快得多。20.If car use has peaked, what are the implications? One is that vehicle-makers, which are already having a tough time, will not easily find new markets in the rich world. In America available cars already outnumber licensed drivers. “We are looking at replacement rather than growth in these countries,” says Yves van der Straaten of the OICA, an international trade body of car manufacturers.如果汽车的使用已经达到顶峰，那么它预示着什么呢？一个，就是车辆制造者们他们现在已经进入艰难时期了，在富有国家里，很难再开发出新市场。在美国，汽车的供应量已经远远超过了有驾照的人。“我们正在寻找新的市场，而并不是期望在这些国家销售有所增长。”全球汽车制造商的贸易组织-世界汽车组织的伊夫-范德-斯特瑞腾如此说道。21.Some niche and luxury brands are thriving and are likely to keep doing so. But manufacturers know that the developing world is the futuresales in China overtook those in America between 2010 and 2011 and rose by 2.6%; those in Indonesia, a younger market, jumped by 17%.一些特定、豪华品牌正在蓬勃发展期，可能还会继续这种发展趋势。但是制造商知道，发展中国家才是他们的未来。在中国的汽车销售已经超过了美国2010年到2011年的销售量，上升了2.6%。而在印度尼西亚-一个刚开发的年轻市场，销量增长了17%。22.A more radical response from carmakers could be to say that if buyers are less interested in driving, then cars will require less driving from them. Driverless carsrobot-guided vehicles that leave their occupants free to text, work or sleepcould go on sale within the next decade, and might meet the mood of the moment. They could be safer and a lot less hassle. Flocking together through clever algorithms, they could cut congestion dramatically. They might further strain the already weakening link between driving and identity and the sense of driving as an expression of self and skill. But they could still be a highly profitable innovation.有的汽车制造商很激.进，他们可能会说，如果购买者不再对驾驶感兴趣，那么汽车也不需要他们来开了。无人驾驶汽车-由机器人引导汽车将会让坐在车里的人自由看书，工作或者睡觉-可能会在未来十年内上市，并且可能会满足那时人们的需要。他们将会更安全，而且少了很多麻烦。通过聪明的计算程序进行最终的处理分析，他们可能会明显减少交通堵塞现象。他们可能会造成驾驶和身份之间已经脆弱的联系更加紧张，并且可能会造成表达自我和显示驾驶技术的紧张感。但是他们仍旧是一个利润非常高的技术创新。23.The possibility of reaching “peak car” is most evident in the rich world. But emerging-world cities may reach a similar state earlier in their development, reckons David Metz of University College London.达到“汽车峰值”的可能性在富有国家最明显。但是，据伦敦大学学院的大卫-梅茨估计，新兴世界的城市在他们的发展早期，也可能会达到一个类似的状态。24.Non-OECD countries have higher levels of vehicle ownership now than OECD countries did at similar income levels. This is because their transport infrastructure has developed faster than it did in richer countries, cars are cheaper in real terms and urbanisation is