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i ibm logistic ii abstract supply chain alliance find favor in domestic and foreign enterprises as a new form of business organization. many enterprises have succeeded in establishing a supply chain alliance and get strong core competitiveness, though that the enterprises become the leader in the industry and market, such as, ibm, nike, nokia and so on. at present, many domestic and foreign scholars have a research on supply chain alliance from several aspects, including, the choice of coalition partners, the distribution of benefits, performance evaluation, etc. but, how supply chain alliance effectively adapt to environmental change by the co- evolution of alliance enterprises when supply chain alliance face the complex natural and market environment ? how the process of co- evolution is formed? and what is the path of co- evolution? they are all worth for us having further understanding. base on that, this thesis use the basic theory of ecology to have a research on the path of supply chain alliance co- evolution, in hope to provide reference for domestic enterprises when they implement supply chain co- evolution. firstly, on the basis of relevant documents, the thesis classifies the connotation of supply chain, supply chain management and supply chain alliance, gives the connotation of supply chain alliance co- evolution, elaborates the basic theory of ecology of this research on the path of supply chain allianceco- evolution; secondly, the thesis using logistic equation to establish the supply chain alliance co- evolution of competitive model and supply chain alliance cooperative co- evolution model, though the models analyzing the process of supply chain alliance co- evolution. and researching the path of trial and error mechanism of supply chain alliance co- evolution by using bayesian function; again, the article with ecological theory, has a research on the heredity and mutation path of supply chain alliance co- evolution form three levels, such as technology, culture and relationships. finally, the thesis selected wuhan iron and steel as the research object, study the path of wuhan iron and steel supply chain alliance co- evolution, and give some reference advices. keywords: supply chain strategic alliance/ co- evolution/ genetic path/ mutation path 1 1.1 1.1.1 nikenokia 1.1.2 1 2 2 1.2 1.2.1 1scscmsca 20402080 clm1986cooper1994 1 willianc.copacino1997 2 1.sca 2. sca 3.sca 4. sca 1. 2. 3 1.scscmsca 2.sca 3.sca 4.sca 5.sca 3 2000 3 stevens1984 4 christopher1992 5 (1999)62000 7 chopraand meindl2002 8 apicsharrision 1996 9 evens 1994 9 2000 9 2001gbt18354- 2001 1980 1982 keith.oliver 19831984peter purchasing must become supply managementroyget leverage from logistics 2090 tulturi sbaker r c1996 10 persson gvirum h2001 11 2002 12 ,2003 13 2002 2sca kanter1998 14 thortontuma(1995)15 toru stefandibrell2004 16 2002 12 2006 17 2008 18 3sca 2005 19 2007 20 2008 21 4 2008 22 shapley 4sca ellramcooper(1990) 23 2007 24 2007 25 2008 26 2008 27 2009 28 5sca chun- wei r2004 29 2003 30 . 2006 31 (dfa) 2006 32 2009 33 gm1 1 1.2.2 1 5 vemadsky1945 34 h.haken1976 35 lewin volberda36 aldrich37 2001 38 2004 39 2005 40 2007 41 2008 42 2 lewinvolberda2000 43 santos 2003 44 chihirowatanabe masayohobo2004 45 2003 46 2005 47 2005 48 2005 49 2007 50 2007 51 6 2008 52 logistic 1.3 1.3.1 1 2 3 4 1.3.2 1 2 3 4 1.4 1.4.1 1logistic 7 2 1.4.2 1.2 logistic 8 2 2.1 1 204080 2.1 handfield niches 53 willian copacino 2 3 7 stevens 4 apics , 6 evens 9 harrision 9 9 martin christopher 5 9 2 clm1986 1999 6r 6 gb/t18354- 2001) gscf 3 2090 tulturibaker1996 10 grainermetes1996 54 10 waltonwhicker1996 55 perssonvirum2001 11 2001 56 2002 12 ,2003 , (), (), , 13 4 ehrlichraven 1964 1980janzen dna 5 11 2.2 1 1930 19311932 2 grinnell1917 elton1927 12 hutchinson1957n r.h.whittaker1970 e.p.odum1971 3 2.3 13 3 3.1 3.1.1 y1y2 logistic 59 )1 ( 1 1 11 1 k y yr dt dy =3.1 r1k1 1- y1/k1 k10r10 14 3.11- y1/k1 k2 )1 ( 2 2 1 1 1 11 1 k y k y yr dt dy =3.2 1 k2k1 )1 ( 1 1 2 2 2 22 2 k y k y yr dt dy =3.3 3.3 211=2 12 59 3.23.3 )1 ( 2 2 1 1 1 11 1 k y k y yr dt dy = 3.4 )1 ( 1 1 2 2 2 22 2 k y k y yr dt dy = 12=1 3.4 p1=(k1,0), p2=(0,k2), p3=(0,0) ,p1p2p3 2222,1111),0 ,(rrrkp= 22111122,), 0(rrrkp= 22113,),0 , 0(rrp= p1=(k1,0) 12=112 11 11,21,21 p2, 10,20,20,q0 60 3.1 pq p1=(k1,0)r1- r2(1-2)- r1r2(1-2) 11 p2=(0,k2)- r1(1-1)+r2- r1r2(1-1) 1121 ) 1 )1 ( , 1 )1 ( ( 21 22 21 11 3 = kk p 21 2211 1 )1 ()1 ( +rr 21 2121 1 )1)(1 ( rr 1, 1210 3.61- y1/k1 k2 )1 ( 2 2 1 1 1 11 1 k y k y yr dt dy +=3.7 1 k2k1 )1 ( 1 1 2 2 2 22 2 k y k y yr dt dy +=3.8 3.8 21 21 1 3.73.8 17 )1 ( 2 2 1 1 1 11 1 k y k y yr dt dy += 3.9 )1 ( 1 1 2 2 2 22 2 k y k y yr dt dy += , 0 1 = dt dy 0 2 = dt dy ) 1 )1 ( , 1 )1 ( ( 21 22 21 11 + + = kk p 3.9p )()( 2 1 ( 0 2 2 2 111 0 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 yy k yr yy k y k y r dt dy += 3.10 )()( 2 1 ( 0 1 1 1 222 0 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2yy k yr yy k y k y r dt dy += a= = ) 2 1 ( ) 2 1 ( 1 1 2 2 2 1 222 2 111 2 2 1 1 1 1 21 21 2 k y k y r k yr k yr k y k y r gygy fyfy 21 2211 21 1 )1 ()1 ( )( + =+ rr gyfyp 21 2121 1 )1)(1 ( det + = rr aq pqp0q0 121 1 11,121,21,121 1 18 3 11,21,121,21 11,21 11,121,21,121 11,2 v1 a as0 s1v0s1 v0v1)=1-01 a p(s0v1)=1-3.12 3.113.120101 aa )-(1)-)(1-1 ( )-)(1-1 ( )ss|vp(v1010 + =3.13 )-(1 )ss|vp(v1010 + =p(v101010 + =3.17 )-(1 )-)(1-( )vp(v-)ss|vp(v101010 + =v1| s0s1)p(v0v1)3.19 p(v0v1| s0s1)p(v0v1)3.20 3.193.20a a v1| s0s1)v1)3.21 p(v0v1| s0s1)0,0 1 1995 150 4.2t p 29 4.2oa 4.2ab 4.2bc 4.3 t c a b o p 30 5 5.1 20 8019961 20032.223.1% 20102- 7 5.1 20105100 421.54393.1313.93 100- 3005.25 5614.32565.77 31 5.2 5.2.1 19551958 913 21.17 4000 2010500 6000500 32 5.2.2 5.3 abb 5.3 5.3.1 1958913150- 200 1974 20 70 33 2005 851158 2007 195819742000 2009189158 32 5.3.2 34 5.3.3 15 35 30510075% 5.4 5.4.1 5.4.2 36 5.4.3 5.5 37 6 6.1 6.2 1 2 3 4 38 1 cooper m .c., ellram, l.m. ,characteristics of supply chain management and the implications for purchasing and logistics strategyj.the international journal of logistics 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