（公共管理专业论文）乡镇债务的形成机理及合理性的实证研究.pdf

摘 要 改革开放以来，由于种种原因，乡镇债务负担过重以及由此而带来的债务风 险越来越受到普遍的关注，特别是全国各地陆续取消农业税后，乡镇的财政困境 和债务问题更加凸显。本文采用定量和定性分析相结合的方法，从我国乡镇债务 情况的分析入手，以浏阳市乡镇债务作为调查实证，并剖析新旧经济政策对乡镇 债务的影响，然后对乡镇债务的基本特点以及产生原因进行了深入探讨，并透过 现象分析本质，对乡镇债务的形成机理从政治层面、经济层面、农民文化层面以 及二元社会结构等方面对乡镇债务的形成进行了定性分析，从负债量与距政治中 心空间距离的关系、负债量与财政分成的关系、负债量与机构人员经费支出和生 产建设性支出的关系、负债量与财政收入的关系以及负债量与gdp的关系等角度 进行了全面系统的分析，先是对适度负债的概念作了较为明确的界定，提出了一 个衡量政府负债状况的主要考评指标，然后对适度负债的合理性进行了论证，通 过分析发达国家的负债状况，历史考评适度负债的合理性，并从分析拉动经济发 展的三种基本力量，即投资、出口、消费出发，进一步分析指出了投入的不断扩 张使负债成为线性选择的关系，负债投入与财税增长、gdp成正向关系，负债投 入与公共产品以及公共服务的供给成正向关系，并据此提出了适度负债合理性的 制度保障。在提出适度负债合理性的同时，本文还对过度负债的风险性及防范机 制建设作出了较为全面深入的探讨，对过度负债的经济风险、信用风险和政治风 险进行了分析，并提出了相应的防范对策，即通过预警机制、调控机制、责任机 制、清偿机制、供给机制等机制的建设，有效地预防过度负债以及化解由此可能 带来的各种风险。 本文共分5章，第一章为绪论。这一部分着重介绍了论文的选题背景和意义， 国内外对这一问题的研究现状以及本文的研究思路和创新点。 乡镇财政是我国五级 财政最基层的一级，改革开放后，我国乡镇财政体制由于自身的缺陷，加上其他外界因 素的影响，产生了不少问题，最为突出的表现就是乡镇债务负担过重，减债压力巨大， 部分地方乡镇政府难以正常运转，甚至严重影响了社会稳定。我国各级党委、政府对此 高度重视，不少理论和实务界的专家学者也十分关注这一问题。但是，国内外目前在对 乡镇债务形成机理和债务风险控制机制及合理性方面尚缺乏文章进行深入、全面的探 讨。而解决这一问题，在理论和实践中都是非常必要而迫切的，在今天建设社会主义新 农村的背景下，深入探讨这一问题，是树立科学的发展观和正确的政绩观的必然要求， 也只有正确地认识和处理好这一问题，正确地处理好发展与减债的关系，才能确保基层 政权运转协调，提高经济运行的质量和效果，促进农村经济社会健康和谐发展。因此， 乡镇债务形成机理及合理性的实证研究 ii 本文以浏阳市为例，对我国乡镇债务的形成机理及合理性进行了探讨，确定为论文的选 题。本文以浏阳市各乡镇的债务情况为实证，对我国乡镇债务现状进行一个较为全面、 深刻、理性的分析，对乡镇债务的形成机理进行深入系统的理论探讨，并对适度控制乡 镇债务和有效防范化解乡镇债务危机作出有独到见解的对策建议。 本文主要在两个方面 有创新：一是对乡镇债务形成机理及合理性进行深入分析，防止对乡镇债务分析中通常 出现的简单化、片面化和表面化现象，找出只一现象的深层次原因，探求其本质，寻求 其规律。二是对乡镇债务问题进行全面分析，深入论述，指出合理负债对乡镇经济社会 发展的积极意义，并提出有效防范和化解过度负债的风险控制机制的系列设想，为全面 准备深刻认识和有效解决乡镇债务问题提出了一种新的途径，提供一个新视角。 第二章为浏阳市乡镇债务实证研究。这一部分重点介绍了浏阳市乡镇债务现状、乡 镇债务结构以及乡镇债务特征，并深入分析了负债量与财税收入的关系，负债量为财政 分成的关系，负债量与财政支出的关系，负债量与国内生产产值的关系，负债量与政治 中心距离的关系，即负债量大的乡镇街道，同时也是财政收入大的乡镇街道；县对乡镇 的财政分成，是乡镇财力合法性来源的主渠道，财政分成的多少与债务余额的大小在数 量上呈现互为消长关系。进一步说明县乡财政分配体制很大程度上影响乡镇债务的状 况；非生产性支出的膨胀，必然挤占了生产性支出，导致生产性支出从体制外提供，而 供给的来源主要是靠负债。非生产性支出的膨胀呈刚性化，人口增加成本外溢，也直接 导致了债务的发生；占全市乡镇负债总额44%的10个乡镇街道，创造的gdp占全市的 47%。这充分说明，投资型经济导致了gdp对负债的依赖；随着城市化的进程加速，在 非均衡发展理论的指导下，城市化的动力推动了政治中心乡镇的发展，使更多的经济资 源向这些乡镇集中，为服务业等三产业和工业的发展创造了更好的条件，富税产业的发 展， 又进一步为乡镇创造了税收和财力， 使这些乡镇的财源建设进入了良性循环的阶段， 融资和偿债能力大大加强。继而分析了浏阳市乡镇债务的影响。指出乡镇政府的沉重债 务导致普遍的非法生存状态，形成一种巨大的压力，对乡镇政府和干部行为产生直接的 影响， 对农业和农村经济的发展造成严重的后果： 一是困扰农村经济和文化发展。 首先， 正常的乡镇公务活动难以开展。其次，乡镇无力提供经济社会发展所必需的公共产品。 最后，乡镇公共资产流失，土地纠纷增多。二是影响基层干部队伍的稳定。三是影响农 村政权和社会稳定。 第三章为乡镇债务形成机理。这一部分首先进行了乡镇债务形成的表象分析，指出 乡镇债务形成表现为几个方面的原因， 即： 一是乡镇财源不充分； 二是农村基金会清理； 三是教育普九达标；四是兴办乡村企业；五是机构和人员膨胀使刚性支出急剧增加。在 此基础上，对乡镇债务形成的根源进行了深入分析，分另从政治体制根源、财政体制根 源、公共产品供给体制根源、监督管理体制根源、文化和社会根源等方面对乡镇债务形 公共管理硕士学位论文 iii 成的较为深刻而系统的探索。 第 4 章为乡镇债务的合理性研究。首先对乡镇债务的合理性进行了历史考察，继而 对乡镇负债的合理性进行了理论探讨，在此基础上，对浏阳市乡镇债务的合理性进行了 具体分析。指出负债扩张与经济发展成正向相关，负债投入与财政增长成正向相关，负 债投入与公共产品供给成正向相关。接着，提出了乡镇债务规模合理性的评判标准，乡 镇适度负债的特征和指标体系。提出了乡镇适度负债和过度负债的几项具体指标：（1） 债务依存度。乡镇债务依存度反映了当年乡镇支出中有多少是依靠举债来实现 的。乡镇政府债务总额既包括从银行取得的债务资金，也包括从上级财政和其他 部门以及民间取得的全部债务总和。乡镇政府债务依存度反映了乡镇财政支出对 债务的依存程度。国际上一般将 20%定为债务依存度的安全线。乡镇政府债务依 存度=当年乡镇政府债务收入额/当年乡镇财政支出。（2）债务负担率。是指一 定时期乡镇债务余额相对于乡镇国内生产总值（即农业增加值）的比例，即衡量 乡镇债务余额相当于乡镇经济问题的比例。这一指标在一定程度上反映了乡镇债 务总量对乡镇经济发展的影响。国际上一般认为政府债务负担率不应超过国内生 产总值的 45%，但经济发达国家或经济发达地区可略高些，政府债务负担率可达 60%。（3）偿债率。乡镇政府偿债率是指乡镇政府在一定时期偿付债务本息额在 乡镇财政收入中所占的比例。乡镇政府偿债率=当年乡镇政府还本付息额/当年乡 镇财政收入。（4）农民个人负担率。是指一定暑期乡镇债务数量相对于农民纯收入的 比例。乡镇债务最终要以税收等形式由农民承担。据牛竹梅研究，当年农民个人偿债率 以不超过农民当年纯收入的2%为宜， 乡镇债务农民个负担率以不超过其收入的10%为宜。 当年农民个偿债率=当年还本付息农民人均额/农民纯收入。乡镇债务农民个人负担率= 乡镇债务余额/农民纯收入。过度负债的指标体系：（1）常用财政赤字占 gdp 的比率超 过 3%。（2）债务总额占 gdp 的比率超过 60%。（3）偿债率超过 8%。最后，就如 何建立乡镇合理负债的机制提出了有针对性和操作性的对策建议，即如何建立风 险约束机制，监督管理机制，责任机制，清偿机制，财政供给机制。 总之，本文对乡镇债务的形成机理及合理性进行了较为系统、全面和深入的 分析探讨，并在此基础上就控制和解决乡镇债务问题提出了化解和防范的意见和 建议。 关键词：乡镇债务 形成机理 合理性 机制建设 乡镇债务形成机理及合理性的实证研究 ii abstrct since the beginning of reform and opening up, due to various reasons,township debt burden has been too heavy and the resulting increased risk of the debt has become a universal concern. all parts of the country, especially after the abolition of agricultural tax, the township financial difficulties and debt problems have become even more prominent. in this paper, throught the combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis method， from our country villages and towns debt situation analysis research obtaining, by the liuyang villages and towns debt took the investigation real diagnosis, and analyzes the new old economic policy to the villages and towns debt influence, then as well as research the reason to the villages and towns debt essential feature to carry on the thorough discussion and penetrates the phenomenon analysis essence, to the villages and towns debt formation mechanism from aspects and so on political stratification plane, economical stratification plane, farmer culture stratification plane as well as dual society structure has carried on the qualitative analysis to the township debt formation, and was apart from relational, the debt quantity and the organization personnel funds disbursement and the production constructive relations, the debt and financial revenue relations as well as debt quantity and gdp angles and so on relations from the debt quantity which the political center space length the relations, the debt quantity and the finance divided into has carried on the comprehensive system analysis, was first has made the quite explicit limits to the moderate debt concept. proposed a weight government debt condition main examination and critique target, who then did carry on to the moderate debt rationality to be heavily in debt the condition through the analysis developed country, historical examination and critique strategy debt rationality, and from analysis drawing economy development three basic strengths, also invests, the exportation, the expense embarks, further analyzed had pointed out the investment unceasing expansion caused the debt to become the relations which the line presently chooses, the debt investment and the finance and taxation grow, gdp become the forward relations, the debt investment and the public product as well as the public service supplies become the forward relations, according to the above and proposed the moderate debt rational system safeguard mechanism. while proposed moderate debt rational, this article also has made the corresponding guard countermeasure to the debt risk and the guard mechanism construction, namely through the early warning mechanism, the regulative mechanism, the responsibility mechanism, pays off the mechanism, the supplies mechanism and so on the construction, prevents effectively is in debt excessively each kind of risk which as well as the melt possibly brings from it . the formation mechanism of the debt problem for the township a more systematic, comprehensive and in-depth analysis. this article atogether is divided 5 chapters, the first chapter is an introduction. this part emphatically introduced the paper selectedtopic background and the significance, domestic and foreign to thisquestion research present situation as well as this article researchmentality and innovation spot. the villages and towns finance is anour country five levels of finances most basic units level, 公共管理硕士学位论文 iii after thereform and open policy, our country villages and towns finance systemas a result of own flaw, other outside factors influences, has had many questions in addition, the most prominent performance is the villages and towns debt burden overweight, reduces the debt pressureto be huge, partial places villages and towns government with difficulty noramal work, even seriously has affected the socialstability. our country all levels of party committees, the government highly takeregarding this, many theories and the solid service experts also extremely pay attention to this question. but, domestic and foreign at present in formed the mechanism and the debt risk control mechanismand the rational aspect to the villages and towns debt still lacks thearticle to carry on, the comprehensive discussion thoroughly. but solves this problem, in the theory and the practice all is extremely essential and urgent, constructs the socialism new countryside intoday under the background, thoroughly discusses this question, issets up the science development view and the correct achievements viewinevitably request, also only has correctly understood and deals withthis issue, correctly processes the good development with to reduce the debt the relations, can guarantee the basic unit of political power revolution coordination, enhances the economical movement the quality and the effect, promotes the rural economy society health harmonious development. therefore, this article take the liuyang city as an example, has carried on the discussion to our country villages and towns debt formation mechanism and the rationality, determines for the paperselected topic. this article take the liuyang city various villagesand towns debt situation as a real diagnosis, carries on to ourcountry villages and towns debt present situation to be comprehensive, profoundly, the rational analysis, carries on the thorough system tothe villages and towns debt formation mechanism the theory discussion,and melts the villages and towns debt crisis to the moderate control villages and towns debt and the effective guard to make has theoriginal opinion the countermeasure suggestion. therefore, this article mainly has the innovation to our country villages and towns debt formation mechanism and reasonable this article in two aspects: one, forms the mechanism and the rationality to the villages and towns debt carries on the thorough analysis, prevented usually appears the simplificationto the villages and towns debt analysis in, is one-sided and the surfaced phenomenon, discovers an only phenomenon the deep level reason, searches the as desired essence, seeks the as desired rule. two, carries on the comprehensive analysis to the villages and towns debt question, the thorough elaboration, pointed out the reasonable debt the positive sense which develops to the villages and towns economic society, and proposed effectively guards against the risk control mechanism series tentative plan which and melts excessively isin debt, for the comprehensive preparation profoundly knew and theeffective addressing villages and towns debt question proposed one newway, provides a new angle of view. second chapter for liuyang city villages and towns debt real diagnosis research. this part introduced with emphasis the liuyang city township debt present situation, the township debt structure as well as the township debt characteristic, and have thoroughly analyzed the debt quantity and the finance 乡镇债务形成机理及合理性的实证研究 iv and taxation income relations, the debt quantity the relations which divides into for the finance, the debt quantity and the expenditure relations, the debt quantity and the home production output value relations, the debt quantity and politics center distance relations, namely the debt quantity big villages and towns street, simultaneously also is the financial revenue big township street; the county divides into to the villages and towns finance, is the mainchannel which the villages and towns financial resource validity originates, how many which the finance divides into with the debt remaining sum size in the quantity presents mutually for the increase and decrease relations. further explained in the county township finance assignment system very great degree affects the township debt the condition; the unproductive disbursement inflation, has inevitably occupied the production disbursement, causes the production disbursement to provide from the system, but supplies the origin mainly depends on the debt. the unproductive disbursement inflation assumes the rigidity, the population increases the cost overflow, also directly has caused the debt occurrence; occupies the whole city township debt total amount 44% 10 township streets, creation gdp occupies the whole city 47%. this fully explained that, the investment economy has caused gdp to the debt the dependence; along with the urbanized advancement acceleration, in under the non- balanced development theory instruction, the urbanized power impelled the political center villages and towns development, causes more economical resources to be centralized to these township, and so on three industrial and the industry development has created a better condition for service industry, rich tax industry development, also further has created the tax revenue and the financial resource for the township, caused these township the source of wealth construction to enter the positive cycle stage, financed and pays off a debt the ability greatly to strengthen. subsequently has analyzed the liuyang city township debt influence. pointed out the villages and towns government the serious debt causes the universal illegal survival condition, forms one kind of huge pressure, has the direct influence to the township government and the cadre behavior, creates the serious consequence to agricultural and the rural economy development: one, puzzles the rural economy and the cultural development. first, the normal villages and towns official business activity with difficulty develops. next, the township incapably provide the public product which the economic society develops must. finally, the township public property drains, the land dispute increases. two, influence basic unit cadre troops stability. three, affects the countryside political power and the social stability. third chapter forms the mechanism for the villages and towns debt.this part has first carried on the representation analysis which the township debt forms, pointed out the township debt forms the performance is several aspects reasons, namely: one is the township source of wealth is not full; two is the countryside foundation cleans up; three, educates pu nine to reach the sign; four, establishes the village enterprise; five is the organization and the personnel inflates causes the rigid disbursement sharp growth. in this foundation, the root which formed to the township debt has carried on the thorough analysis, 公共管理硕士学位论文 v divided in addition from the political system root, the financial system root, public product supplies aspect and so on system root, inspector general management system root, culture and social root forms to the township debt is profound but the system exploration 4th chapter for township debt rational research. first has carried on the historical inspection to the villages and towns debt rationality, subsequently has carried on the theory discussion to the villages and towns debt rationality, in this foundation, has carried on the concrete analysis to the liuyang city township debt rationality. pointed out the debt expansion and the economy develop cheng zheng to approach the correlation, the debt investment and the finance grows cheng zheng to approach the correlation, the debt investment and public product supplies cheng zhengxiang is connected. after that, proposed the township debt scale rational judgment standard, the towns moderate debt characteristic and the target system. proposed the villages and township moderate debt and excessively is in debt several concrete targets: (1) the debt depends on for existence. the township debt depended on for existence to reflect in the same year villages and towns disbursement had how many is the dependence offers loans realizes. the township government outstanding amount already includes the debt fund which obtains from the bank, also includes the complete debt sum total which obtains from the higher authority finance and other departments as well as the folk. the township government debt depende don for existence to reflect the township expenditure depended on for existence the degree to the debt. on international generally 20% decides as the debt to depend on for existence a safety line. the township government debt depended on for existence the = same year villages and towns government debt income volume/same year township expenditure. (2) debt burden rate. is refers to the certain time township debt remaining sum to be opposite (namely agriculture increases value) to township gdp the proportion, namely weighs the villages and towns debt remaining sum to be equal to the township economic problem proportion. this target has reflected the township debt total quantity in the certain degree to the township economy development influence. on international generally thought the government debt burden rate should not surpass gdp 45%, but the economical developed country or the economical developed area may slightly high, the government debt burden rate be possible to reach60%. (3) debt soervicing ratio. township government debt soervicing ratio= is refers to the villages and towns government to reimburse the debt principal and interest volume in the certain time the proportion which occupies in the township financial revenue. the township government debt soervicing ratio= same year township government repaid principal and interest the volume/same year villages and towns financial revenue. (4) farmer individual burden rate. is refers to the certain summer township debt quantity to be opposite to the farmer net income proportion. the township debt finally needs by form and so on tax revenue to undertake by the farmer. according to niu zhumei studies, same year farmer individual debt soervicing ratio take did not surpass the farmer same year the net income 2% assuitably, a township debt farmer burden rate take did not surpass its income 10% as to be suitable. 乡镇债务形成机理及合理性的实证研究 vi same year the farmer debt servicing ratio = same year repaid principal and interest the farmer average per person volume/farmer net income. the township debt farmer individual burden rate = township debt remaining sum/farmer net income. excessively is in debt target system: (1) the commonly used financial deficit occupies gdp the ratio to surpass 3%. (2) the outstanding amount occupies gdp the ratio to surpass 60%. (3) debt servicing ratio surpasses 8%. finally, how established the township reasonable