taiwan财务管理_lecture5(ch5)(PPT 22页)

,Irwin/McGraw-Hill,Chapter5,FundamentalsofCorporateFinanceThirdEdition,ValuingStocks,BrealeyMyersMarcusslidesbyMatthewWill,Irwin/McGraw-Hill,TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,2001,Irwin/McGraw-Hill,TopicsCovered,StocksandtheStockMarketBookValues,LiquidationValuesandMarketValuesValuingCommonStocksSimplifyingtheDividendDiscountModelGrowthStocksandIncomeStocks,Stocks&StockMarket,PrimaryMarket-Placewherethesaleofnewstockfirstoccurs.InitialPublicOffering(IPO)-Firstofferingofstocktothegeneralpublic.SeasonedIssue-SaleofnewsharesbyafirmthathasalreadybeenthroughanIPO,Stocks&StockMarket,CommonStock-Ownershipsharesinapubliclyheldcorporation.SecondaryMarket-marketinwhichalreadyissuedsecuritiesaretradedbyinvestors.Dividend-Periodiccashdistributionfromthefirmtotheshareholders.P/ERatio-Pricepersharedividedbyearningspershare.,Stocks&StockMarket,Stocks&StockMarket,BookValue-Networthofthefirmaccordingtothebalancesheet.LiquidationValue-Netproceedsthatwouldberealizedbysellingthefirmsassetsandpayingoffitscreditors.MarketValueBalanceSheet-Financialstatementthatusesmarketvalueofassetsandliabilities.,ValuingCommonStocks,ExpectedReturn-Thepercentageyieldthataninvestorforecastsfromaspecificinvestmentoverasetperiodoftime.Sometimescalledtheholdingperiodreturn(HPR).,ValuingCommonStocks,Theformulacanbebrokenintotwoparts.DividendYield+CapitalAppreciation,ValuingCommonStocks,DividendDiscountModel-Computationoftodaysstockpricewhichstatesthatsharevalueequalsthepresentvalueofallexpectedfuturedividends.H-Timehorizonforyourinvestment.,ValuingCommonStocks,ExampleCurrentforecastsareforXYZCompanytopaydividendsof$3,$3.24,and$3.50overthenextthreeyears,respectively.Attheendofthreeyearsyouanticipatesellingyourstockatamarketpriceof$94.48.Whatisthepriceofthestockgivena12%expectedreturn?,ValuingCommonStocks,ExampleCurrentforecastsareforXYZCompanytopaydividendsof$3,$3.24,and$3.50overthenextthreeyears,respectively.Attheendofthreeyearsyouanticipatesellingyourstockatamarketpriceof$94.48.Whatisthepriceofthestockgivena12%expectedreturn?,ValuingCommonStocks,Ifweforecastnogrowth,andplantoholdoutstockindefinitely,wewillthenvaluethestockasaPERPETUITY.,Assumesallearningsarepaidtoshareholders.,ValuingCommonStocks,ConstantGrowthDDM-Aversionofthedividendgrowthmodelinwhichdividendsgrowataconstantrate(GordonGrowthModel).Givenanycombinationofvariablesintheequation,youcansolvefortheunknownvariable.,ValuingCommonStocks,ExampleWhatisthevalueofastockthatexpectstopaya$3.00dividendnextyear,andthenincreasethedividendatarateof8%peryear,indefinitely?Assumea12%expectedreturn.,ValuingCommonStocks,Example-continuedIfthesamestockissellingfor$100inthestockmarket,whatmightthemarketbeassumingaboutthegrowthindividends?,AnswerThemarketisassumingthedividendwillgrowat9%peryear,indefinitely.,ValuingCommonStocks,Ifafirmelectstopayalowerdividend,andreinvestthefunds,thestockpricemayincreasebecausefuturedividendsmaybehigher.PayoutRatio-FractionofearningspaidoutasdividendsPlowbackRatio-Fractionofearningsretainedbythefirm.,ValuingCommonStocks,Growthcanbederivedfromapplyingthereturnonequitytothepercentageofearningsplowedbackintooperations.g=returnonequityXplowbackratio,ValuingCommonStocks,ExampleOurcompanyforecaststopaya$5.00dividendnextyear,whichrepresents100%ofitsearnings.Thiswillprovideinvestorswitha12%expectedreturn.Instead,wedecidetoplowback40%oftheearningsatthefirmscurrentreturnonequityof20%.Whatisthevalueofthestockbeforeandaftertheplowbackdecision?,ValuingCommonStocks,ExampleOurcompanyforecaststopaya$5.00dividendnextyear,whichrepresents100%ofitsearnings.Thiswillprovideinvestorswitha12%expectedreturn.Instead,wedecidetoblowback40%oftheearningsatthefirmscurrentreturnonequityof20%.Whatisthevalueofthestockbeforeandaftertheplowbackdecision?,NoGrowth,WithGrowth,ValuingCommonStocks,Example-continuedIfthecompanydidnotplowbacksomeearnings,thestockpricewouldremainat$41.67.Withtheplowback,thepriceroseto$75.00.Thedifferencebetweenthesetwonumbers(75.00-41.67=33.33)iscalledthePresentValueofGrowthOpportunities(PVGO).,ValuingCommonStocks,PresentValueofGrowthOpportunities(PVGO)-Netp