中国移动通信市场分析报告(行业概况部分-English).ppt

ChinaMobileTelecomMarketAnalysisreport（IndustryOverviewPart）,2005.10,SenskyTelecomConsultingforSKTelecom(China),2,Contents,CountryOverviewCommunicationIndustryPolicyCurrentstatusofCommunicationIndustryCommunicationindustryoverviewOperatorsoverviewFixednetworkindustrysituationInternetindustrysituationMobileindustrysituationAnalysisonmarketingSinceChinaisstillinhigh-speedgrowthstage,itispredictedthatChinawillmaintainthepreferentialpoliciesonforeigninvestmentsandattractmoreforeigninvestorstoinjectinvestmentsinChina.AftertheentryintoWTO,Chinawillacceleratetheopening-upofthemarketforforeigninvestorsintermsofdepthandscope.,Source:NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina2005,ProtectionbeforeenteredWTO,Mid,High,Low,Chemical,Bank,Retail,NetworkService,Insurance,Bigchange,Automobile,Agriculture,Stock,Energy,sources,Electronic,Telecommunication,Consumable,Medicine,Smallchange,lesschange,High,Mid,ProtectionafterenteredWTO,Mid,High,Low,Chemical,Bank,Retail,NetworkService,Insurance,Bigchange,Automobile,Agriculture,Stock,Energy,sources,Electronic,Telecommunication,Consumable,Medicine,Smallchange,lesschange,Mid,LOW,12,ThedirectinvestmentofJapanandSouthKoreainChina,13,Contents,CountryOverviewCommunicationIndustryPolicyCurrentstatusofCommunicationIndustryCommunicationindustryoverviewOperatorsoverviewFixednetworkindustrysituationInternetindustrysituationMobileindustrysituationAnalysisonmarketingothergovernmentaldepartmentswilldividetheirworkonthebasisofduties,implementingcorrespondingmanagementovertelecomindustrywithintheirduties.DirectlyledbyMII,thetelecommanagementbureausineachprovince,autonomousregionandmunicipality,inaccordancewithTelecomRegulations,carryoutmanagementoverthetelecomindustryinlocaladministrativeregions.,16,ForeignoperatorsinvestmentsinChinastelecommarket,17,VodafoneintheChinesemarket,2001/02:SignstrategyagreementwithCMCC,2001/11:EstablishSubsidiarycompanyinHK.EstablishagentinChina,2001/2002:Use800millionsUS$Purchase3.27%shareofCMCC,2001/2002:Use35millionsUS$Purchase9.9%shareofAspire,VodafonewillinjectmoreinvestmentsinChinaduring3Gera.,Initialstage:EstablishstrategycooperationEstablishagentinChina,Capitaloperationstage:Purchasestock,Deepenedstage:Penetrateinthevaluechain,EstablishstrategyalliancewithCMCC,cooperateinthefieldsofnewtechnique,equipmentandterminal,18,TheFrequencyLayoutinChina,China3GfrequencyallocationsolutionisstipulatedinNoticeabout3GPublicMobileCommunicationSystemFrequencyPlanning(XBW2002No.479)ofRadioManagementAdministrationunderMIIAmongthat,reserveTD-SCDMA-specificfrequencyforthedevelopmentofnationalindependentIPRs,19,Inter-networkconnection,TrendofnewTelecomLawThemonopolyofuseraccesswilldisappearAfineofRMB5millionYuanforinterconnectionbreakdown,20,StructureofmaintariffsregardingChinaTelecom,FixedtelephonecalltariffsLocaltelephonecalltariffThreefees:installationfee,basicmonthlyrentfeeandcallfee.Monthlypaymentsystem:installationfeeandmonthlyfixed-valuefee.Domesticlong-distancecalltariffCalculatethefeesaccordingtothedistanceandtraffic(callduration)Internationallong-distancecalltariffCollectionchargeofinternationalcallserviceTotalaccountingrate:2USdollarsDivisionrate:50%,50%Settlementrate:1USdollar,InternetservicetariffsServicetypes:DialingaccessPrivate-lineaccessEnterpriseemailVPNserviceInternetserviceisvalue-addedservice.InaccordancewiththeregulationsofTelecomRegulations,thetariffsshouldbeformulatedmainlyonthebasisofmarketadjustment.Thegovernmentshouldstrengthensupervisionstopreventillegalcompetition.Chargecalculationofnormaldialingservice:trafficcalculationsystemandmonthlypaymentsystemPrivate-lineaccessservice:chargecollectionbasedonbandwidth,MobilephonecalltariffsMobilephonecallchargecollectionwaysCallingpartyone-waychargeandcallingPrivate-lineInternet-surfersrefertotheusershavingaccesstoLANthroughEthernetandthenhavingaccesstoInternetthroughprivateline;BroadbandInternet-surfersrefertotheuserssurfingtheInternetwithxDSL,CableModemandetc.,Internet-surferbasewithvarioussurfingways(June2005),34,Contents,CountryOverviewCommunicationIndustryPolicyCurrentstatusofCommunicationIndustryCommunicationindustryoverviewOperatorsoverviewFixednetworkindustrysituationInternetindustrysituationMobileindustrysituationAnalysisonmarketing&salesofmobilecommunicationCMCCmarketing&salesanalysisCUCCmarketing&salesanalysisComparisonofmarketing&salesbetweenCMCC&CUCC,35,TotalsizeofChinasmobilecommunicationmarket,Overtherecentyears,Chinasmobilecommunicationservicesawarobustgrowth,owningthelargestuserbaseintheworld.AsofJune2005,themobilephoneuserbaseinChinaamountedto363million.Overtherecentyears,themobileusersalwaysenjoyahighergrowthratethanthatoffixed-linephoneusers.InOctober2003,themobileuserbaseexceededthefixed-linephoneuserbaseforthefirsttime.Therevenuefrommobileservicessawaceaselessincreaseofproportion.Inlate2003,thisproportionwasgreaterthan50%.Therevenuefrommobilecommunicationservicesacquiredagreaterproportion.,Themobileuserbasewasgreaterthanfixed-linephoneuserbase,Therevenuefrommobileservicesacquiredashareofover50%,Source:MIIanddataaboutoperatorsin2005,36,ChinaMobileMarketcompetitivestatus,CMCCandCUCCaretheonlytwooperatorinthemarket,DistributionbyPHS,CTCandCNCwillobtain3GLicence,Operatorsssplitandrestructure,currentinfluence,Latencyinfluence,Theentranceofforeignoperators,atpresent,thereonlyaretwooperatorsCMCCandCUCCinChinaMobilemarket.someimportantfactorsinfluencethecompetitivestatusinChinamobilemarket,includecontestingtheusersbyPHS,recombiningtheoperators,thegrantingof3Glicenseandtheentranceofforeignoperators.,37,CMCCandCUCC-developmentbackgroundandoverview,ChinaMobileandChinaUnicomwereestablishedunderdifferentbackgroundsandpolicyenvironments.ChinaMobilewassplitupfromChinaTelecomin1999.ChinaUnicomwasaproductarisingfromcompetitionattemptsinChinascommunicationindustry.,38,CMCCandCUCC-networkoperationstatus,BothChinaMobileandChinaUnicomownGSMnetwork.ButChinaMobilesGSMnetworkenjoysbetterperformancethanChinaUnicomsGSMnetwork.Since2002,ChinaUnicomhasbeguntooperateCDMAnetworkandlaidemphasisonit.Inaddition,itupgradedCDMAnetworkaroundChinatoCDMA1Xinlate2004.Inanefforttopromotethedevelopmentofmobiledataservices,ChinaMobiledeployedGPRSandevenEDGEnetworksinsomedevelopedareas.,ChinaMobilesGSMnetworkenjoysbetterprofitingcapabilitythanChinaUnicomsGSMnetwork.,ChinaUnicomsCDMAnetworkalwayssufferslosses.ThelessdeployedGSMnetworkisthemainprofitsourceforChinaUnicom.,Source:MIIanddataaboutoperatorsin2005,39,CMCCandCUCC-marketperformance(userbaseandbusinessrevenue),Onthebasisofcomparisonsaboutthedataofuserbaseandmainbusinessrevenue,wecanseethatChinaUnicomsuffersweakeroverallstrengththanChinaMobile.ChinaUnicomcannotcompeteagainstChinaMobileinshorttime.,TheratioofChinaMobilesuserbasetoChinaUnicomsuserbaseislessthantheratioofChinaMobilesbusinessrevenuetoChinaUnicomsbusinessrevenue.Thismeansthanlow-enduserstakethemajorityamongChinaUnicomsusers.,40,CMCCandCUCC-marketperformance(ARPUvalue),Duetomorelow-endusers,intensifiedtariffpricewarsandlowerproportionofnewservices,theusersofChinaMobileandChinaUnicomsawadeclineofARPU.Bothafter-servicepaymentusersandprepaymentusersshowthistrend.ComparedwithChinaUnicom,ChinaMobilecarriedoutaseriesofdifferentialmarketingactivitiesfordifferentbrands,slowingthedeclineofARPUvaluetosomedegree.ComparedwithChinaUnicom,ChinaMobileenjoysahigherARPU,withthegapsettobecomewider.Insomedegree,comparedwithChinaMobile,ChinaUnicomsuffersweakerprofitingcapability.,ForChinaUnicom,itsCDMAARPUisgraterthatthatofGM,whichresultsfromthesmallCDMAuserbase.WithmoregeneralusersamongCDMAuserbase,thegapwillbenarrower.,ChinaUnicominvestsalotofcellphonesubsidiestopromoteCDMAservice.Withthedeclineofcellphonesubsidies,CDAMsawadecreaseofARPUvalue.,ChinaMobilescontractsigningusersarethehigh-endusers.,Source:MIIanddataaboutoperatorsin2005,41,CMCCandCUCC-marketperformance(MOUvalue),ChinaMobilestrafficmaintainsasteadygrowth.AlthoughtheMOUvalueofprepaymentuserssawadeclinein2002,ChinaMobileintroducedaseriesofactivitiesforlow-andmedium-enduserslikemonthlycallminuteoffer,familylovenumbersetup,Shenzhounightcallandetc,resultingintheriseofMOUvalue.ThecontractsigninguserbaseofChinaMobilealwaysmaintainsagrowth.TheCDMAusersofChinaUnicomsawadeclineoftraffic.Thisisbecausethatinthebeginning,ChinaUnicompositionedCDMAtowardshigh-endmarketandattractedmanylow-andmedium-endusersundertheunfavorableoperation.Inaddition,thedecreaseofCDMAcellphonesubsidiesistheotherreason.Throughthecomparisons,ChinaMobilesusershavemoretrafficthantheusersofChinaUnicom.Thegapwillbewider.,Source:MIIanddataaboutoperatorsin2005,42,CMCCandCUCC-VAS(servicecategorization）,UnderthetotalbrandofMonterNet,ChinaMobileintroducedthemobilevalue-addedserviceslikeMMS,WAP,STK-OTA,JAVAdownloadingandetc.UnderthetotalbrandofU-Max,ChinaUnicomintroducedthemobilevalue-addedserviceslikecolore(MMS),UnicomMessage(SMS),STK-OTA,BREW/JAVA-0TA,InteractiveVision(WAP)andetc.,43,CMCCandCUCC-VAS(developmentstatus),Thevalue-addedserviceofChinaMobilemaintainsasteadygrowth,becomingthemajordrivingforceforthedevelopmentofcompanyandoperationrevenuegrowth.Currently,ChinaMobileisintroducingnewservicestoachievethesteadyandrapidgrowthofvalue-addedservicerevenue.Amongthat,WAPandCRBTserviceswillplayakeyrole.,DespiteGSMandCDMAnetworks,ChinaUnicomstepsupeffortsonnewservicesforCDMA.Since2003,ChinaUnicomintroducedCDMA1Xvalue-addedservicebrand(U-Max)anddevelopedaseriesofsub-brandservices.AsofJune2005,CDMA1Xdatausersaccountedforashareofnearly40%amongthetotalCDMAuserbase.Currently,ChinaUnicomisintroducingU-Webandstreammediaserviceswithgreaterefforts.,CRBTserviceisfreeofterminalrestrictions.Inaddition,itcanmeettherequirementsofuserswithaffordableprices,therefore,itenjoyedarapidgrowthsinceitsrelease.WAPservicesuffersterminalrestrictions.Since2004,ChinaMobileadoptedaseriesofcellphonecustomizationactivitiestopromotethedevelopmentofdataservices,resultingintherapidgrowthofWAPservice.,Source:MIIanddataaboutoperatorsin2005,44,CMCCandCUCC-developmentstrategiesandinvestmentemphasesin2005,45,CMCCandCUCC-overallanalysis,ChinaMobileachievesamarketshareofover60%,whileChinaUnicomgainsashareoflessthan40%,Userbase,Mainbusinessrevenue,ARPUvalueandMOUvalue,Networkstatus,ChinaMobile,ChinaUnicom,ThemainbusinessrevenueofChinaMobileis2.5-3.5timesasthatofChinaUnicom,ComparedwithChinaMobile,ChinaUnicomsuffersweakerprofitingcapabilityandthegapiswider.,ChinaMobileenjoysbetterGSMnetworkperformancethanChinaUnicom.TheCDMAserviceofChinaUnicomalwayssufferslosses,withtroublesarisingfromtwoconcurrentnetworks,46,Currentstatusof3GinChina,47,ChinaMobile,ChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomrespectivelygetonelicensetodeployandoperatethenetworkChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomrespectivelydeploynationwide3Gnetwork,whichpossiblyresultsinhugeinvestmentwasteChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomarelikelytorentthecurrent2GnetworkofChinaMobileandChinaUnicomtocarryoutroamingservices.,ChinaUnicomsCDMAnetworkandGSMnetworkarerespectivelyintegratedintoChinaNetcomandChinaTelecomChinaUnicomenjoyshugecapitalandownsGSMnetwork.3Gupgradecanbeachievedwithlargeinvestments.ChinaNetcomisrelativelyweakintermsofcapital.TheCDMAnetworklicenseacquirementcanhelpachieve3Gwithasmallamountoffunds.,ChinaMobileandChinaUnicomrespectivelygetindependent3Glicense.ChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomgetacombinedlicensetojointlydeploy3GnetworkChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomneedtoresolveaseriesoftroublesarisingfromjointnetworkdeployment,suchascostallotment,interconnectionandetc.ChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomstillneedtorent2GnetworkofChinaMobileorChinaUnicomtocarryoutroamingservices.,1,2,3,Aseriesofuncertaintiesforoperators3Glicenseacquirement,48,ChinaMobileandChinaUnicomdominatedthemobilemarket,ChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomenteredmobilemarketwithLittleSmart,withtheuserbaseupto30mi