（产业经济学专业论文）贸易对环境的影响？——基于产权角度的研究.pdf

重庆大学硕士学位论文 ii 摘 要 自从中国加入世贸组织wto以后中国的贸易总量以翻四番的速度已在 2004年达到 1.15万亿美元的新高预计今年的贸易总量将大大超过往年在加入 世贸组织后的经济转型后期中国人已经慢慢从加入世贸的兴奋中冷静下来政 府开始注意到由前几年的自由贸易产生的负面效应首当其冲的便是环境的恶化 问题 在传统观念上贸易和环境两者从来不曾和谐共处过从而中国也不例外 历史数据表明同等程度的贸易盈余和经济增长伴随着同等程度的环境恶化 尽管世界上普遍接受贸易对环境有害的观念但我认为这个理论并不适用所有的 情况在引用诸如 copeland 和 taylor, chichilnisky 以及 coxhead等自由市场环境 保护主义者等倍受推崇的理论时研究发现财产权在减少过度开采和实用可再生 性能源方面即所谓的公用草场的悲剧中扮演着重要的角色为了使这一理 论在现实环境中得到实践证明本文首先利用了 copeland and taylors 的理论来 论证中国的贸易与环境之间的真实联系然后在一个更加国际化的环境中研 究 chichilnisky 的北南模型又是如何使用在中国和东南亚的贸易关系当中 的由此可以证明在现实经济生活中只要灵活运用财产权等市场调节机制 国际贸易并不是环境恶化的罪魁祸首 为进一步论证本观点中国学者也对此进行了数项研究这些研究揭示了国 内的现状并将理论和现实紧密结合muldavin 关于河南乡村的研究和南方周末 有关 maowusu沙漠的调查报告均得出了相同的结论即产权的明晰能够遏制对可 再生资源的过度开采如果中国仍想沿着可持续发展的目标前进当前产权不明 晰的问题将是最为关键的症结所在若这个问题得以顺利解决中国不仅能够扩 大贸易带来的成果还将踏上可持续发展和经济良性循环的坦途此外这也将 成为世界各国的典范特别是对发展中国家确实证明了贸易和环境二者互惠关 系的存在 关键词贸易自由化环境恶化过度开采产权 公用草场的悲剧. abstract iii abstract since chinas accession to the world trade organization (wto) in 2001, its trade volume has quadrupled, reaching a record high of $1.15 trillion usd as of 2004 with expectations of further increases this year. now in its post-transitional period of accession, the excitement of the past three years has begun to cool down and the government is beginning to place more attention on the negative impacts that have accompanied its trade liberalization successes of the previous years. chief among these is environmental degradation. traditionally, trade and the environment have never been the best of friends and chinas case is no different. figures show that record trade surpluses and economic growth have been accompanied by an equally record level of environmental degradation. despite this almost universal acceptance that trade is harmful to the environment, i adopt the position that this may not necessarily hold true in all situations. by using the venerable insights of economists like copeland and taylor, chichilnisky and coxhead, i examine the important yet often ignored role that property rights can play in reducing over-exploitation of renewable resources, a situation referred to as the tragedy of the commons. in an attempt to make a real-world application of these theories, the local china situation is examined within the context of copeland and taylors model. and in a more international context, chichilniskys north-south model is interestingly applied to china (representing the north) and southeast asia (representing the south). this china-southeast asian correlation with the north-south model is significant in providing a real world example in which international trade need not be held responsible for resource depletion, as long as market distortions such as property rights mechanisms are implemented. in order to further substantiate this claim several case studies done in china are presented. these provide significant insights into what is actually happening at the domestic level and serves as a bridge between theory and reality. muldavins henan province villages case study and south weekends report on the maowusu desert all show that overexploitation of renewable resources can in fact be ended as long as property rights are well defined. the current situation of ill-defined property rights in china is therefore identified as a key factor to be considered if china is to continue along its sustainable development goal. if this is done, china will not only be able to 重庆大学硕士学位论文 iv maximize its gains from trade, but it will be on its way to achieving a sustainable and circular economy. additionally, it will serve as an example for the world, especially developing countries that a mutually beneficial relationship between trade and the environment can in fact exist. key words: trade liberalization, environmental degradation, over-exploitation, property rights, tragedy of the commons. list of tables vii list of tables table 3.1 the three worlds resources in the late 1980s.19 table 3.2 consumption of natural resources by industrialized and developing countries.20 table 3.3 share of the total world carbon dioxide emissions, population and gdp (in terms of purchasing power parity) for industrial and less developed countries.21 table 3.4 real comparative advantage (rca) values (2000-03 average) for china and southeast asia .25 table 4.1 investment in environmental protection (1999-2001).29 table 4.2 the use of organic fertilizers in china from 1952-1991.29 table 4.3 chinas export ratio and trade balance, 1998-2002.35 table 4.4 commodity consumption in selected countries.36 table 4.5 southeast asian competition with china in the us market.44 table 4.6 correlation coefficients of rca measures between china and southeast asian economies.45 list of figures ix list of figures figure 3.1 supply curves for private property regime and an ill-defined property rights regime.21 figure 3.2 economic growth and natural resource dependence: the sachs-warner data.24 figure 4.1 potential environmental “hotspots” and the “glass- wall” in china.27 figure 4.2 annual percent change (usd terms) in nonfuel commodity prices from 1996-2004.36 figure 4.3 population growth rates for china (1990-2003).39 figure 4.4 line graph showing birth, mortality and population growth rates.39 . list of acronyms and their definitions xi glossary asean association of south east asian nations bfa boao forum for asia bfl basic forestry law campfire communal areas management program for indigenous resources cdm clean development mechanism cte committee on trade and the environment dsb dispute settlement body gatt general agreement on trade and tariffs gwp global water partnership imf international monetary fund mea multilateral environment agreement mfa multifiber arrangement nafta north american free trade agreement npc national peoples congress prc the peoples republic of china 重庆大学硕士学位论文 xii rca real comparative advantage sepa state environment and protection administration tve township and village enterprise unfccc united nations framework convention for climate change usa the united states of america wto world trade organization dedication i dedication to my parents, patrick and yvonne quan kep whose unconditional love and support have kept me going when all else had failed. and my dearest daddy, whose lifelong pursuit of excellence in higher education i will always admire and respect. maybe the biggest obstacle which i have encountered in writing this paper is a lack of inspiration. for sundry reasons my own inner source has been far too unreliable to ensure consistency and so i have often found myself quietly drawing from an unsuspecting individual my nine year old daughter, mikkal shannon faith quan kep. there is certainly no greater teacher than the example of a child and i am convinced that no matter how many degrees i hold from the respectable institutions of this earth, none would equip me with the open-mindedness to understand, the fearlessness to try and the unbending faith to succeed, in the way she has. for these reasons i dedicate the first of many of my lifes works, be they academic or otherwise, to my parents and daughter. chapter 1 introduction 1 chapter 1 introduction during the last fifty years, the world has experienced its most rapid industrial advancement in its entire history, as well as its fastest rate of environmental destruction (chichilnisky, 1994). scientists point to the period of industrialization following world war ii in which raw material exports from poor countries to rich industrial countries led to the depletion of the worlds natural resources. this process of environmental degradation was spurred on even further by the fast growth of trade (three times that of these countries economic growth). and it is this economic growth resulting from industrialization that led to an insatiable demand for energy derived from fossil fuels, and other natural resources such as wood, which were extracted from developing countries forests. no matter how we chose to look at it, it is without a doubt that the main causes of environmental degradation (industrialization, overexploitation of resources or over-consumption of fossil fuels), all have one common driving force - international trade. the worlds current global environmental problems have therefore been largely (though not entirely) a result of its international trading activities, especially the trade of renewable resources. most of these renewable resources are extracted from developing countries, the process of extraction made even easier by the weak property rights regimes in these countries. over the years, the situation has developed into one of de- facto open access to resources held in common and in the absence of such controls or regulations, over-exploitation is the unfortunate result. over-exploitation of natural resources held in common water, land, forests, air; to name a few, is now identified as not only destructive to the environment and ecosystems, but also a grave threat to our ability to enjoy a sustainable livelihood. in china, water shortages pose a significant threat to both the nations ecosystems as well as its sustainable development. in april this year, wang hao, executive secretary of global water partnership china (gwp china) warned that chinas water supply is in trouble due to the scarcity of water resources and worsening pollution after the rapid economic growth of the past two decades. in 2000, 60 of a total 514 rivers ran dry, water volume in lakes decreased by 14% and water quality in 25% of (1073) fountainheads was found to be below grade iii (the minimum standard for drinking)1. as with most public goods 1 “ experts warn of water crisis.” china daily. 20 april 2005. 重庆大学硕士学位论文 2 or resources held in common, there is open access to the resource and no-one is held responsible for the transaction costs that accompany their use and depletion. public as opposed to private goods are generally more difficult to assign property rights, quantify, restrict and allocate. in recognition of these inherent difficulties this paper chooses as its focus land resources (in comparison to water and air) since it is easier to deal with in these respects. a lot of the blame for environmental pollution and depletion of resources is often cast on developed nations industrial activities. in many ways this is true given the fact that most of the earths carbon emissions come from the oil that these nations burn. one example is the united states of america (u.s.a.) which is currently the largest oil consumer in the world and which contributes 26% of the worlds carbon emissions. industrialized nations, despite their overwhelming contribution, cannot however take all the blame for environmental degradation. many other developing nations, now on their own path of industrialization and free market activities, have in many instances recorded even worse cases of environmental pollution. key among these, and the focus of this research, is china2. having joined the wto in 2001, china is well on its way to becoming a recognized free market economy. last year (2004) statistics show a record trade volume of us $1.15 trillion, gross domestic product (gdp) growth of us $1.65 trillion (9.5%) and foreign direct investment of more than us $60.6 billion3. it is therefore not surprising that in the early years of market reform, the environment was so easily overshadowed by the outstanding economic successes that trade liberalization brought to china. in recent years however, environmental awareness has increased and action in the form of nationwide recycling and cleaner production programs, the passing of laws and regulations to support of these programs and international environmental conferences can be seen and heard all over the media. from all appearances, it seems as if china is beginning to recognise the impact that trade is having on the environment. shi hanxiang, a leading researcher with ningbo orient environmental protection equipment company in zhejiang province actually hinted at the necessity of linking trade and the environment when he said, “a circular economy aims to ease conflicts between economic development and the protection of natural resources.” 2 it is estimated that by 2020, chinas imports of petroleum would reach 60%, surpassing the current u.s. level of 58%. 3 “pushing circular economy tops nations development agenda.” china daily, saturday 5th march, 2005. chapter 1 introduction 3 while chinas promotion of a circular economy as its major economic development strategy is indeed a step in the right direction, further investigation suggests that this and all other policy-making attempts have unfortunately just been political rhetoric. statistical data for the period 1980 to 2002 show that apart from experiencing rapid gdp growth, chinas annual natural resource consumption doubled, its energy costs were three times the worlds average and five times those of japan4. environmental problems in the areas of deforestation, desertification, erosion, habitat loss, air, land, and water pollution (to name a few) are even more alarming and continue to worsen at faster rates now more than ever before. these dual conditions of rapid trade liberalization and accelerated environmental degradation make china an ideal example for exploring the possibility of finding a positive correlation between the two. this paper, having agreed on the negative impact of international trade, (especially in terms of resource depletion in developing countries like china) aims to explore the ways in which international trade can be instrumental in providing a solution to the very same problem which it is often accused of causing. the main purpose of this research is thus to provide some hope of mutual positive interaction between trade and the environment. however, before exploring the possibility of such, it is necessary to understand some background history of the trade and environment debate, the relevant actors and the strengths of their arguments. the next section (chapter 2) provides an understanding of such arguments, beginning with the initial debate between, on the one hand, the environmentalists and on the other, free traders. i then zero in on the current attempts at ending this conflict such as the formation of a committee on trade and environment (cte) and multilateral environmental agreements (meas). given the shortcomings of all these attempts, the use of property rights as an effective and necessary link between trade and resource exploitation is explored. this background history was necessary in order to fully grasp the extent and depth of the ongoing trade and environment debate. it is only then can we recognise that amidst the seemingly endless maze of arguments, with all their complexities and contradictions, there is an urgent need to arrive at some form of compromise and mutual understanding so that a win-win rather than a no-win (zero-sum) situation can result. in recognition of all this, the impetus for this research paper is clear, and can now be fully grasped and understood. 4 shi hanxiang, a leading researcher with the ningbo orient environmental protection equipment company in east chinas zhejiang province. 重庆大学硕士学位论文 4 in recent years there has been a growing body of literature aimed at providing a possible link between trade and the environment. chapter 4 provides a summary of this by dividing the existing literature between two parts theoretical and empirical. the theoretical literature, begins with the early research of pethig (1970), followed by sieber (1976) and then mc guire (1982) with his heckscher-ohlin framework. they all investigated changes in trade patterns under differing strengths of regulation. in all cases it was assumed that some level and form of regulation existed. but in reality this does not necessarily hold true since trade patterns can be (and is often) strongly influenced when there is no regulation at all. under such circumstances, the countrys open access condition leads to overexploitation of its renewable resources held in common, a phenomenon described as the tragedy of the commons. this phrase was created by garrett hardin in his 1968 article entitled, “the tragedy of the commons,” and it shall henceforth be used in this paper to refer to a situation when the environment is degraded through natural resource depletion. in order to understand the root of this tragedy, game theory is employed. according to general game theory, people respond to incentives. in a zero sum game, the more others get, the less do you, so the advice is to “get while the getting is good.” when applied to the environment, it is observed that although it is in the communitys interest to conserve resources, it is in the individuals interest to get as much as he can. the tragedy lies in the fact that