Determining Optimal Level of Availability in a Supply … .ppt

determiningoptimallevelofproductavailability optimalmatchingofsupplyanddemand iii 本著作除另有註明外 採取創用cc 姓名標示 非商業性 相同方式分享 台灣3 0版授權釋出 第八單元 2 determiningoptimallevelofproductavailability 1 蔣明晃教授 supplychaindecision makingframework inventory transportation facilities information supplychainstructure supplychainstrategy competitivestrategy 2 leversforincreasingsupplychainprofitability decreasingthecostsofoverstockingandunderstockingreducingthedemanduncertainty improvedforecastingtoloweruncertaintyquickresponse reduceleadtimetoincreasenumberofordersperseasonpostponementofproductdifferentiationtailoredsourcing microsoft 3 benetton benetton benetton 4 benetton benetton將毛衣的製造程序重新設計 將原本先染色再編織的程序 改成先將毛線編織成毛衣 等透過市場調查掌握市場流行顏色後 才開始進行染色程序 如此 benetton公司可以避免大量顏色落伍的存貨 每年因而節省數百萬美元的成本 benetton benetton microsoft 5 benetton 72hr 12day microsoft 6 zara microsoft microsoft 7 what squickresponse awidelyusedstrategy bygeneralmerchandise soft linesretailersandmanufacturerstoreduceretailout of stocks forcedmarkdown merchandisingsystemandoperatingcosts suppliersandretailersworktogethertorespondmorerapidlytoconsumerneedsbysharingposinformationtojointlyforecastfuturedemandforreplenishableitems andtocontinuouslymonitortrendstodetectopportunitiesfornewitems spreadthroughthesupplychainandseamlesslylinkedateachstagebyelectronicdatainterchange apartnershipstrategy ajitstrategy 8 basicelementsofqr timehorizons information supplier manufacturerrelationships philosophical culturalchange logistics manufacturingoperations 9 example ustextileandapparelindustryin1986 fiber fabric apparel consumer retail synthetics 75 highlyconcentratedtenfirmsprovidemorethan90 ofmarket morefragmented6 000firms12firmsprovide1 4ofmarket extremelyfragmented15 000firms 70 employfewerthan50people increasingconcentrationmajorcategories departmentstoresmassmerchandisersmailorderchainsspecialtystores increasingsophisticationexpectationofvariety changewidechoiceofretailoutlets 10 theinefficiencies longsupplychainfromrawmaterialtoconsumerpurchasewas66weeks11weeksin planttime40weeksinwarehouseortransit15weeksinstoreproblemsoflongsupplychainexpensivetofinancetoomuchortoolittleproductwasproducedanddistributed1985 1986overallloss 25billion 11 theresponse awakentheindustryfocusontheentiresupplychainratherthanseparatefunctionswithinittargetingthecommongoalsservetheconsumerwiththerightproductsattherighttime andtherightpricethetotalsupplychainwouldachievemajorgainsinbothefficiencyandeffectiveness 12 expectedresultsthroughqr fig 6 15 qrsystem weeks fiber fabric apparel andretailinventories workingweeks averagecostperunit 66 46 21 13 example benetton benettondeliverknittedgoodsinthehottestnewcolorsseeminglyovernight itknittedthesweatersinneutralyarnandthendyedthemtomeetmarketdemand puttinginplacefastandsophisticatedretailerreportingsystems keytechnologiesbarcodesystemscomputernetworksautomateddistributioncenterediorinternet basedeccim 14 ecrisaglobalindustrystrategyinwhichretailersandsuppliersworktogethertodeliverbetterconsumersatisfactionandvalue ecr efficientconsumerresponse 15 astrategyinwhichdistributorsandsuppliersareworkingcloselytogethertomaximizegroceryconsumersatisfactionandminimizecost timely accurate paperlessinformationflow smooth continualproductflowmatchedtoconsumption supplier distributor retailstore consumerhousehold whatisefficientconsumerresponse 16 anatomyofefficientconsumerresponse aconsumerpurchases producta fromasupermarket thetransactionisrecordedbythestore sscanner thescannerforwardsthetransactionrecordtoanin storecomputer theproductamanufacturer whosecomputersinterfacewiththeretailer s notesthetransactionandautomaticallyreordersareplacementunitonajust in timebasis anautomaticorderingsystemallowstheproductasuppliertomatchproductiontodemandusingproductmovementinformationandforecasting becauseproductionistieddirectlyintodemand retailersbecomeincreasinglyfreedfromtheneedforexcessinventoryandwarehousingofexcessinventory thusopeningthedoorforincreasedcross dockinganddirectstoredeliveryshipments theretailer sin storecomputeracknowledgesreceiptoftheshipmentandautomaticallyissuesacomputer generatedpaymentorelectronicfundtransferpayment eliminatingtheneedforpaperinvoicesandstreamliningtheaccountingprocess 17 efficientconsumerresponseprocess manufacturingbusinessstrategy replenishment promotion productintroductions storeassortments retailbusinessstrategy replenishment promotion productintroductions storeassortments opencommunication changemanagement integratededicontinuousreplenishmentcomputer assistedorderingflow throughdistributionactivity basedcostingcategorymanagementflexiblemanufacturing 18 ecrstrategies objectives 19 ecrcomponents logistics supplyside continuousreplenishmentcrossdockingcategorymanagement demandside understandingconsumerneedsdecisionsmadewithdatacategoryvs brandfocusedtotalsystemsapproachenablingtechnologies tools electronicfundtransfer eft electronicdatainterchange edi activitybasedcosting abc itemcoding databasemaintenance 20 supplierwarehouse38days distributionwarehouse forwardbuy9days turninventory31days 40days retailstore26days supplierwarehouse27days distributorwarehouse12days retailstore22days 104days ecrdrygrocerychain currentdrygrocerychain 61days packingline consumerpurchase packingline consumerpurchase example throughputtimeimprovementofdrygrocery 21 ecrrequirements thinktotalsupplychainmulti function multi echeloncooperationconvertefficienciestocustomervaluedrivetrueefficiencyandrecognizeinefficiencyemphasizeonconsumerworktogethertocreatedemandchangebusinessprocessesidentifywhat swrongtodaytrusttobepartnerssharedata 22 stores p gplant p gheadquarters customerheadquarters customerdistributioncenters storedelivery orders directstorelevelshipment demandandinventory orderinginfo orders example p g scrpprocess dedicatedcarriersandprescheduledappointments demandandinventory shippinginfo orderinginfo c網站 c網站 c網站 c網站 臺灣大學郭瑞祥老師 23 barriers lackoftrustlackoffairness opentradingnoinformationsharinglackofresourcecommitmentlackofindustrystandardsculture negotiationenvironment measurement rewards 24 quickresponse multipleordersperseason orderingshawlsatadepartmentstoresellingseason 14weeksoriginalreplenishmentleadtime 15weeksreducedreplenishmentleadtime 6weekscostperhandbag 40saleprice 150disposalprice 30holdingcost 2perweekexpectedweeklydemand 20sdofweeklydemand 15 25 quickresponse multipleordersperseason twoorderingpolicies asingleordermustarriveatthebeginningoftheseasontocovertheentireseason sdemandtwoordersareplacedintheseason onearrivingatthebeginningoftheseasonandtheotherarrivingatthebeginningoftheeighthweektwosituations thebuyer sforecastaccuracydoesn timproveforsecondorderthebuyer sforecastaccuracydoesimproveforsecondorder 26 impactofquickresponse forecastdoesn timproveforsecondorder sd 15 20 7 1 75 15 209 2 69 20 14 1 75 15 27 observations it spossibletoprovidethesamelevelofproductavailabilitytothecustomerwithlessinventoryifasecondfollow uporderisallowedtheaverageoverstocktobedisposedofattheendofthesalesseasonislessiftwoordersareallowedtheprofitsarehigherifsecondorderisallowed 28 leftoverinventoryvs numberofordercyclesperseason unsoldinventoryatendofseason numberofordercyclesperseason 29 expectedprofitvs numberofordercyclesperseason expectedprofit numberofordercyclesperseason 30 forecastimprovesforsecondorder sd 3insteadof15 20 7 1 75 3 31 notes quickresponseisclearlyadvantageoustoaretailer butastheretailerordersizedrops themanufacturersellslesstotheretailer thus themanufacturermakealowerprofitintheshorttermifallelseisunchanged itseemstobenefitretailerattheexpenseofthemanufacturer 32 meaningofpostponement delaythetimingofthecrucialprocessesinwhichendproductsassumetheirspecificfunctionality features identities or personality canbeviewedasinformationstrategy3differentkindsofpostponement pull logistics form 33 pullpostponement btsvsbtodecouplingpoint thepointfromwhichtheprocessswitchesfromabuild to stockmodetothebuild to ordermode meaningofpullpostponement makingthedecouplingpointearlierintheprocess 34 pullpostponement basicelements theprocessstepsmustbesequencedsothatthelessdifferentiatingstepsareperformedatpriortothedecouplingpoint afterthedecouplingpoint theprocessstepscanbeperformedflexibleandfast accurateordercaptureforbto example nationalbicycle benetton 35 延遲差異化 postponementdifferentiation 之意義此種延遲主要是運用在最終產品的需求未確定時 先生產一些通用或產品族共通的部分 等到特定的產品需求確定後再進行生產或製造 以減少不確定性 延遲差異化 36 延遲差異化的做法 作業程序的重排序 resequencing 例子 benetton postponedyeinguntilafterassembled cost 10 moreexpensive newmachinepurchasedandemployeeretrained 例子 usdiskdrivemanufacturing insertgenericcircuitboardintoassembly completemuchofthetesting removethegenericcircuitboard andaddcustomer specificboardslater 37 延遲差異化的做法 產品的共通性 commonality 利用產品線或產品族的重新設計來達成例子 printermanufacturing redesignthenewandoldproductstoshareacommoncircuitboardandprintheadsuchthatfinalprocesscanbedelayed 38 延遲差異化的做法 模組化 modularity 模組化產品設計 將功能採模組化 使各個模組能夠簡易且以較低成本的添加到產品上 例子 hplaserjet模組化製程設計 製程應設計盡量獨立的生產模組 容易因應不同的要求進行彈性的調整 例子 print and pigmentmixture levisjeans 39 延遲差異化的做法 標準化 standardization 建立數種顧客所需的標準化產品之選擇 機動敏捷的供應網路 agilesupplynetworks 某些網路節點存放基本的產品 並在收到顧客訂單時進行客製化的最後作業 40 延遲差異化施行的考量 重新排序或延遲時所需資本投入之考量 重新排序或延遲時所需技術與能力之考量 延遲的結果可能使存貨成本提高 在國際運籌作業中 各進出口國對原物料 零組件或在製品的關稅考量 41 logisticspostponement meaning redesignthetasksinthescsothatsomeofthecustomizationstepscanbeperformeddownstreamclosertothecustomers 42 concurrentandparallelprocessing concurrentandparallelprocessinginvolvesmodifyingthemanufacturingprocesssothatstepsthatwerepreviouslyperformedinasequencecanbecompletedatthesametime reduceleadtimereduceinventorycostakeyistheconceptofmodularityordecoupling 43 cannotleadtoqualitydegradation downstreamsiteshavecapabilitytoperformthetaskwithoutexcessivecostandtime potentiallytoprocurethenecessarycomponentsormodulesforthecustomization theengineeringteamisableandwillingtodesignproductsandprocessestodeferthestepseffectively requirementsforlogisticspostponement 44 formpostponement meaning postponementisachievedthroughthechangeintheformoftheproductstructurebystandardizingsomeoftheprocessstepsorcomponents example hplaserprinter 45 productsorprocessesshouldbemodularinstructure designengineershouldbeawareoftheimportanceofscmtopursuitdesignforpostponementopportunity mustinvolvemultiplefunctionsororganizationincollaboration quantifythecostsandbenefitstodeterminethebestpointforpostponement postponementenablers 46 thevalueofpostponement improvematchingofsupplyanddemand needtoqualifythebenefitwithadditionalcostincreaseprofitability differentiateafterreceivingcustomerordersothatinventoriescanbereducedvaluableforsellingalargevarietyofproductswithdemandthatisindependentandcomparableinsize 47 valueofpostponement benetton foreachcolormeandemand 1 000 sd 500foreachgarmentsaleprice 50salvagevalue 10productioncostusingoption1 threadaredyedandthegarmentwasknitted withlongleadtime 20productioncostusingoption2 dyingwaspostponeduntilafterthegarmentwasknitted 22whatisthevalueofpostponement 48 valueofpostponement benetton option1 csl p c p s 30 40 0 75o norminv 0 75 1000 500 1 337unitsofeachcolorexpectedprofitsfromeachcolor 23 644expectedoverstockforeachcolor 412expectedunderstockforeachcolor 755348sweatersareproduced expectedprofitof 94 576withanaverageof1 648sweaterssoldonclearanceand300customersturnsawayforlackofsweaters 49 valueofpostponement benetton option2 c 22insteadof 20csl p c p s 28 40 0 70o a norminv 0 70 1000 4 500 4 524unitsexpectedprofits 98 092expectedoverstockforeachcolor 715expectedunderstockforeachcolor 190expectedprofitincreasesfrom 94 576to 98 092expectedoverstockdeclinesfrom1 648to715expectedunderstockdeclinesfrom300to190 50 valueofpostponementwithdominantproduct colorwithdominantdemand red mean 3 100 sd 800otherthreecolors mean 300 sd 200option1 csl 0 75optimalproductionofredsweaterso norminv 0 75 3100 800 3 640 expectedprofit 82 831 expectedoverstock 659 expectedunderstock 119optimalproductionofeachothercolorsweater 435 expectedprofit 6 458 expectedoverstock 165 expectedunderstock 30totalproduction 4 945 expectedprofit 102 205 expectedoverstock 1 154 expectedunderstock 209 51 valueofpostponementwithdominantproduct option2 a 3100 3 300 4 000 a totalproduction 4 457 expectedprofit 99 872 expectedoverstock 623 expectedunderstock 166expectedprofitwithoutpostponement 102 205expectedprofitwithpostponement 99 872 52 meaningofpurepostponement postponementmayreduceoverallprofitforafirmifasingleproductcontributesthemajorityofthedemand sincetheincreasedmanufacturingexpenseduetopostponementoutweighsthesmallbenefitfromaggregation 53 tailoredpostponement benetton ontheportionofthecertaindemand postponementprovideslittlevalue thus companyneedstouselowercostmethod ontheportionoftheuncertaindemand postponementsignificantlyimprovesforecastaccuracy thus companyiswillingtoincurhighercosttoachievethebenefit produceq1unitsforeachcolorusingoption1andqaunits aggregate usingoption2 54 tailoredpostponement benetton 55 thebenefitoftailoredpostponement tailoredpostponementallowsafirmtoincreaseitsprofitabilitybypostponingonlytheuncertainpartofthedemandandproducingthepredictablepartatalowercostwithoutpostponement 56 themeaningoftailoredsourcing acombinationoftwosupplysources onefocusingoncostbutunabletohandleuncertaintywell andtheotherfocusingonflexibilitytohandleuncertaintybutahighercostabackuppolicydisadvantage increasingcomplexityofimplementation 57 tailoredsourcing sourcingalternativeslowcost longleadtimesuppliercost 245 leadtime 9weekshighcost shortleadtimesuppliercost 250 leadtime 1week 58 tailoredsourcingstrategies 59 tailoredsourcing multiplesourcingsites 60 dualsourcingstrategies 61 contractsforproductavailabilityandsupplychainprofits manyshortcomingsinsupplychainperformanceoccurbecausethebuyerandsupplierareseparateorganizationsandeachtriestooptimizeitsownprofittotalsupplychainprofitsmightthereforebelowerthanifthesupplychaincoordinatedactionstohaveacommonobjectiveofmaximizingtotalsupplychainprofitsdoublemarginalizationresultsinsuboptimalorderquantityanapproachtodealingwiththisproblemistodesignacontractthatencouragesabuyertopurchasemoreandincreasethelevelofproductavailabilitythesuppliermustshareinsomeofthebuyer sdemanduncertainty 62 contractsforproductavailabilityandsupplychainprofits manyshortcomingsinsupplychainperformanceoccurbecausethebuyerandsupplierareseparateorganizationsandeachtriestooptimizeitsownprofittotalsupplychainprofitsmightthereforebelowerthanifthesupplychaincoordinatedactionstohaveacommonobjectiveofmaximizingtotalsupplychainprofitsdoublemarginalizationresultsinsuboptimalorderquantityanapproachtodealingwiththisproblemistodesignacontractthatencouragesabuyertopurchasemoreandincreasethelevelofproductavailabilitythesuppliermustshareinsomeofthebuyer sdemanduncertainty buybacksbypublisherstechfiberproducesjacketatv 10andchargesawholesalepriceofc 100 skiadventuresellsjacketforp 200 demandisnormaldistributedwith 1 000and 300 unsoldjacketshavenosalvagevalue shouldtfbewillingtobuybackunsoldjackets why cslsa 0 5 saorders1 000 expectedprofit 76 063 tfsells1 000foratotalprofitof 90 000 totalexpectedscprofit 166 063 63 impactofsupplychaincontractsonprofitability buybackcontracts buybacksbypublisherstechfiberproducesjacketatv 10andchargesawholesalepriceofc 100 skiadventuresellsjacketforp 200 demandisnormaldistributedwith 1 000and 300 unsoldjacketshavenosalvagevalue shouldtfbewillingtobuybackunsoldjackets why cslsa 0 5 saorders1 000 expectedprofit 76 063 tfsells1 000foratotalprofitof 90 000 totalexpectedscprofit 166 063 64 thecategoriesofsupplycontract horizonlengthpricing linear proportional ornon linear two parttariff buyback holdingcostsubsidies paymentforinabilitytosupplyperiodicityofordering fixedorrandomquantitycommitment totalminimumcommitment quantityordollarvalueperiodicalcommitmentdemandcommitmentcapacitycommitment 65 thecategoriesofsupplycontract flexibility magnitudeorfrequencyofadjustmentsdeliverycommitment leadtimeshipmentpolicyquality defectrates specificationsinformationsharing 66 supplierselectionandcontracts contractsforproductavailabilityandsupplychainprofitsbuybackcontractsrevenue sharingcontractsquantityflexibilitycontractscontractstocoordinatesupplychaincostscontractstoincreaseagenteffortcontractstoinduceperformanceimprovement 67 impactofsupplychaincontractsonprofitability buybackcontracts buybacksbypublisherstechfiberproducesjacketatv 10andchargesawholesalepriceofc 100 skiadventuresellsjacketforp 200 demandisnormaldistributedwith 1 000and 300 unsoldjacketshavenosalvagevalue shouldtfbewillingtobuybackunsoldjackets why cslsa 0 5 saorders1 000 expectedprofit 76 063 tfsells1 000foratotalprofitof 90 000 totalexpectedscprofit 166 063 68 impactofsupplychaincontractsonprofitability buybackcontracts forentiresc scmakes 190foreachjacketsold andonlyloses 10 thus thecostofunderstockingis 190 andthecostofoverstockis 10 theoptimalcslforentirescis0 95andproduce1 493jackets totalscprofitis 183 812 69 returnpolicy buybackcontracts issueofdoublemarginalizationwholesalepricecbuybackpricebmanufacturingsalvagevalue smthesalvagevalueforretaileriss boptimalorderquantityo expectedmanufacturingprofit o c v b expectedoverstockatretailer 70 buybackcontracts 71 buybackcontracts manufacturescanusebuybackcontractstoincreasetheirownprofitaswellastotalsupplychainprofits buybackcontractalsoencourageretailersincreaseproductavailabilitymanufacturesneedtoconsiderthecostassociatedwithareturnasthecostassociatedwithareturnincreases buybackcontractsbecomelessattractive applications 1 bookstoresreturnthecoverofthebooktoreducethecostofreturn 2 manufacturesuseholdingcostsubsidies 72 allowsaretailertoreturnunsoldinventoryuptoaspecifiedamountatanagreeduponpriceincreasestheoptimalorderquantityfortheretailer resultinginhigherproductavailabilityandhigherprofitsforboththeretailerandthesuppliermosteffectiveforproductswithlowvariablecost suchasmusic software books magazines andnewspapershightechindustryprovidespricesupportforretailersduetopricedroprapidly contractsforproductavailabilityandsupplychainprofits buybackcontracts 73 co