气候变化与冰冻圈专栏.doc

目 次第5卷 第4期 2009年7月气候变化与冰冻圈专栏187 冰冻圈变化及其影响研究现状、趋势及关键问题秦大河，丁永建196 春季欧亚积雪异常影响中国夏季降水的数值试验李震坤，武炳义，朱伟军202 气候变化对长江黄河源区生态系统的影响及其水文效应王根绪，李 娜，胡宏昌研究论文209 珠江流域19612007年气候变化及20112060年预估分析 刘绿柳，姜 彤，原 峰215 松花江流域气候变化及ECHAM5模式预估 曾小凡，李巧萍，苏布达，等220 基于ECHAM5模式预估2050年前中国旱涝格局趋势 翟建青，曾小凡，苏布达，等226 19512006年黄河和长江流域雨涝变化分析 张 勇，张 强，叶殿秀，等231 北京市19962007年住宅空调致冷耗能影响因素分析 陈 莉，李 帅，方修琦，等237 19712000年营口地区大风特征及其变化分析 金 巍，周广胜，曲 岩简 讯241 为IPCC第五次评估报告提供的全球气候模式预估 赵宗慈244 欧盟对2012年后气候协定的立场 王文军，潘家华246 气候变化的风险、挑战与决策 巢清尘，胡国权，赵宗慈科学知识247 全新世气候 王绍武消 息195 中国社会科学院-中国气象局气候变化经济学模拟联合实验室成立201 气候科学中的几个重要问题225 建立共同的气候语言ContentsVol. 5 No. 4 July 2009Special Section on Climate Change and Cryosphere195 Cryospheric Changes and Their Impacts: Present, Trends and Key Issues Qin Dahe, Ding Yongjian201 Numerical Simulation on Effect of Spring Eurasian Snow Cover on Summer Rainfall in China Li Zhenkun, Wu Bingyi, Zhu Weijun208 Hydrologic Effect of Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change in the Source Regions of Yangtze River and Yellow River Wang Genxu, Li Na, Hu HongchangArticles214 Observed (19612007) and Projected (20112060) Climate Change in the Pearl River Basin Liu Lliu, Jiang Tong, Yuan Feng219 Change and Projection of Climate in the Songhua River Basin Zeng Xiaofan, Li Qiaoping, Su Buda, et al.225 Patterns of Dryness/Wetness in China Before 2050 Projected by the ECHAM5 Model Zhai Jianqing, Zeng Xiaofan, Su Buda, et al.230 Analysis of Rain-Waterlogging in the Yellow River and the Yangtze River Basins During1951-2006 Zhang Yong, Zhang Qiang, Ye Dianxiu, et al.236 Influence Factor Analysis of Urban Residential Cooling Energy Consumption by Air Conditioners in Beijing During 1996-2007 Chen Li, Li Shuai, Fang Xiuqi, et al.240 Characters of High Wind Days and Its Change in Yingkou Prefecture from 1971 to 2000 Jin Wei, Zhou Guangsheng, Qu YanNotes241 Experiments of Global Climate Models Proposed for IPCC AR5Zhao Zongci244 Summary on the EUs Position on Post-2012 Climate AgreementWang Wenjun, Pan Jiahua246 Climate Change Risk, Challenges and DecisionChao Qingchen, Hu Guoquan, Zhao ZongciKnowledge247 Holocene Climate Wang Shaowu冰冻圈变化及其影响研究现状、趋势及关键问题秦大河1,2，丁永建1（1 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室，兰州 730000；2 中国气象局，北京 100081）摘 要：通过对冰冻圈研究在中国的重要作用和对冰冻圈科学在国内外研究现状的系统总结和分析，凝炼出了目前面临的关键科学问题及未来研究重点。总体来看，国际上更多关注冰冻圈变化对气候、海平面和环境的影响；而作为中、低纬度地区冰冻圈最发育的中国而言，冰冻圈变化对生态、水、环境及气候均具有重要影响。目前需要解决的关键科学问题为不同类型冰川对气候变化的响应机理及水资源影响评估的尺度转化机制、冻土与植被间水热传输过程的准确模拟、冰冻圈物理过程参数化及其与气候模式的耦合。为解决上述关键科学问题，需要开展以下研究：冰冻圈过程及其对气候变化的响应机理研究、冰冻圈变化的影响研究和冰冻圈变化的适应对策研究。关键词：冰冻圈；气候变化；影响；水资源Cryospheric Changes and Their Impacts: Present, Trends and Key IssuesQin Dahe1, 2, Ding Yongjian1(1 State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold Arid Regions Environment and Engineering Research Institute, Lanzhou 730000, China; 2 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)Abstract: On the basis of analyses of the importance of cryospheric researches in China and the current status of cryospheric sciences over the world, this paper addresses some key issues and main contents that must be handled at present. Generally, the impacts of cryospheric changes on climate, sea level and physical environments receive worldwide concerns, whereas in China, cryospheric changes are of great importance in ecology, fresh water, physical environments and climate since China has a most developed cryosphere among countries in mid- and low-latitudes. The key issues that should be currently addressed are: i) fluctuation mechanisms of different types of glaciers in responses to climate changes and the scale-conversion in water resources assessments of glaciers; ii) modeling of water and heat exchanges between frozen soil and vegetation; iii) parameterization of physical processes in the cryosphere as well as their coupling with climate models. Towards full solution of these key issues, works in following three aspects should be highlighted, i.e. cyrospheric processes and their responses to climate changes, influences of cryospheric changes, and adaptation strategies for cryospheric changes.Key words: cryoshpere; climate change; impact; water resources春季欧亚积雪异常影响中国夏季降水的数值试验李震坤1,2，武炳义2，朱伟军1（1 南京信息工程大学江苏省气象灾害重点实验室，南京 210044；2 中国气象科学研究院，北京 100081）摘 要：利用NCAR的新一代GCM CAM3.1版本模式，研究了欧亚大陆春季积雪异常对北半球大气环流和中国夏季降水的影响。结果表明，春季积雪异常通过改变其后夏季的土壤湿度和温度分布，造成对流层厚度场的异常，激发一个从欧洲西部到东亚的500 hPa高度场异常波列。我国南、北方处于符号相反的高度场异常区，同时降水也呈现南北相异的态势，这表明春季欧亚积雪异常是影响我国夏季降水分布的一个重要因子。关键词：欧亚积雪；中国夏季降水；数值模拟；大气环流 Numerical Simulation on Effect of Spring Eurasian Snow Cover on Summer Rainfall in ChinaLi Zhenkun1, 2, Wu Bingyi2, Zhu Weijun1(1 Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 2 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)Abstract: The effects of spring Eurasian snow cover on Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and summer rainfall in China have been explored using the latest version of general circulation model (GCM) CAM3.1 developed by NCAR. Model results show that snow anomaly in spring can cause the thickness anomaly in the troposphere and trigger a wave train of geopotential height anomalies from western Europe extending to East Asia at 500 hPa by changing the distribution of the soil moisture and temperature in succeeding summer. As a result, 500 hPa height anomalies with opposite sign are located in southern and northern China. Meanwhile, summer precipitation anomaly in southern China is out of phase with that in northern China. The results demonstrate that spring Eurasian snow cover anomaly acts as an important factor affecting the distribution of summer rainfall in China.Key words: Eurasian snow cover; summer rainfall in China; numerical simulation; atmospheric circulation气候变化对长江黄河源区生态系统的影响及其水文效应王根绪1,2，李 娜1，胡宏昌2（1 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所，成都 610041；2 兰州大学资源环境学院，兰州 730000）摘 要：利用1967年航片数据、1986和2000年两期遥感TM数据，对长江黄河源区高寒生态系统分布格局变化进行了分析，并结合源区气候变化观测数据，分析了源区高寒生态系统变化与气候的关系和陆面生态系统变化对源区水文过程的影响。结果表明：过去40 a来，长江源区高覆盖草甸、高覆盖草原和湿地面积分别减少了13.5%、3.6%和28.9%，黄河源区高覆盖草甸、高覆盖草原和湿地面积分别减少了23.2%、7.0%和13.6%，江河源区低覆盖草甸、草原和沙漠草地面积均不同程度地增加；长江、黄河源区气温变化率分别为0.27和0.31/10a，降水的变化趋势在长江、黄河源区分别以0.36和0.07 mm/a的速率递增，气温持续升高和由此引起的冻土退化是导致高寒生态系统退化的主要因素之一；陆面生态系统退化对源区水文过程影响显著，在降水没有明显变化的情况下，长江、黄河源区径流系数分别由1960年代的0.16和0.28下降到21世纪的0.12和0.21，且降水径流关系减弱，出源径流趋于减少，洪水发生频率显著增加，水源涵养指数持续减小。如何应对气候变化，维护源区高寒生态系统功能，已成为迫切需要关注和解决的关键问题。关键词：江河源区；长江；黄河；高寒生态系统；气候变化；水文效应 Hydrologic Effect of Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change in the Source Regions of Yangtze River and Yellow River Wang Genxu1, 2, Li Na1, Hu Hongchang2(1 Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China; 2 College of Resources & Environment, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)Abstract: The distributive pattern of the alpine ecosystem in the source regions of the Yangtze River and Yellow River was analyzed based on the aerial photo in 1967 and the TM remote sensing data obtained in 1986 and 2000; the relationship of changes in the alpine ecosystem with climate was then analyzed based on the climatic observation data; and the effect of changes in the land surface terrestrial ecological system on the hydrological process of the river source region was analyzed using runoff coefficient, rainfall-runoff relationship, flow duration curve, and water conservation index etc. Results show that the alpine ecosystem persistently degraded over the last 40 years, the area of high coverage alpine meadow and alpine steppe decreased, while wetland shrunk and desertified meadow increased. The permafrost thawing due to temperature rise is one of the main factors which led to the degradation of the alpine ecosystem. The changing of temperature was significantly negatively correlated with the areas of high coverage alpine meadow, alpine steppe and alpine swamp meadow. The degradation of land surface terrestrial ecosystem has significantly affected the hydrological process in the source regions; under the condition that precipitation changed slightly, the relation between the persistent decline of runoff coefficient and precipitation-runoff attenuated, the frequency of flood increased, and the outflow and water conservation index persistently decreased. It is urgent to pay much attention to cope with the climatic change and to sustain the alpine ecosystems function in the source regions.Key words: river source region; Yangtze River; Yellow River; alpine ecosystem; climatic change; hydrologic effect珠江流域19612007年气候变化及20112060年预估分析刘绿柳1,2，姜 彤1,2，原 峰3（1 中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081；2 中国气象局气候变化中心，北京 100081；3 广东省海洋资源研究发展中心，广州 510220）摘 要：根据珠江流域19612007年气温、降水量观测资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式20112060年预估结果，分析了流域过去47 a的气温和降水量变化，并预估未来50 a变化趋势。结果表明，在全球变暖的背景下，过去47 a温度呈上升趋势，约升高1.8。冬季增温最明显，夏季最弱。未来50 a流域温度仍呈上升趋势，A1B情景下升幅约1.9，并且年际变化增强。A2和B1两种排放情景下秋季升温最显著，冬季最弱，A1B排放情景与此相反。过去47 a秋季降水量呈减少趋势；春、夏、冬季和年降水量均呈增加趋势。未来50 a降水总体呈增加趋势，A1B排放情景降水增加最多，约为230 mm。A2、A1B和B1情景下降水季节分配未发生显著变化。年降水和冬季降水的年际变率增强，秋季减弱。关键词：气温；降水；气候变化；气候预估；珠江流域 Observed (19612007) and Projected (20112060) Climate Change in the Pearl River BasinLiu Lliu1, 2, Jiang Tong1, 2, Yuan Feng3(1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2 Climate Change Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3 Guangdong Marine Resources Research & Development Center, Guangzhou 510220, China)Abstract: Based on the temperature and precipitation observation data during 1961-2007 and projection during 2011-2060 by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, changing tendencies of temperature and precipitation in the Pearl River basin were analyzed. The results show that the annual average air temperature increased by 1.8 during the past 47 years, with a maximum increase in winter and a minimum increase in summer. Annual temperature would rise by 1.9 under the SRES-A1B scenario in the next 50 years (2011-2060); at the same time, inter-annual variability would enhance. Seasonal temperature would rise most significantly in autumn and most weakly in winter under the SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 scenarios; however, under the SRES-A1B scenario, the opposite is true. In the past 47 years, except that autumn precipitation decreased, spring, summer, winter and annual precipitation increased. Precipitation would overally increase about 230 mm in 2011-2060 by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model under the SRES-A1B scenario. However, the seasonal percentages of annual rainfall would not change obviously. On the other hand, the inter-annual variability of annual and winter precipitation would enhance, but that of autumn precipitation would weaken.Key words: temperature; precipitation; climate change; climate projection; Pearl River basin 松花江流域气候变化及ECHAM5模式预估曾小凡1,4，李巧萍2，苏布达2，刘玉莲3，陈 华5（1 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所，南京 210008；2 中国气象局气候变化中心，北京 100081；3 黑龙江省气候中心，哈尔滨 150030；4 中国科学院研究生院，北京 100049；5 湖北省荆门市沙洋县林业局五里铺林业管理站，荆门 448268）摘 要：根据松花江流域19612000年观测气温、降水量资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式对该流域21世纪前50 a气候变化的预估结果，分析了松花江流域19612000年年平均气温和年降水量变化，并对21世纪前50 a气温和降水量变化趋势进行了预估。结果表明，在全球变暖的背景下，作为中国气候变暖区域响应的先锋，松花江流域年平均气温自1980年代初持续升高，升温幅度比较显著；年降水量在19612000年无明显增加或减少趋势，年代际差异也不大。相对于19611990年的气候场，21世纪前半叶，年平均气温仍将呈明显增加趋势，到2040年代升温幅度达1以上，年降水量变化趋势不显著，可能微弱增加，但冬季平均气温和冬季降水量都呈增加趋势，春季降水量也为增加趋势。关键词：松花江流域；气温；降水量；气候变化；预估 Change and Projection of Climate in the Songhua River BasinZeng Xiaofan1, 4, Li Qiaoping2, Su Buda2, Liu Yulian3, Chen Hua5(1 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China; 2 Climate Change Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3 Heilongjiang Climate Centre, Harbin 150030, China; 4 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 5 Wulipu Forestry Management Station, Shayang County Forestry Bureau, Jingmen 448268, China)Abstract: Based on observed temperature and precipitation data from 1961-2000 and climate projection in the first 50 years of the 21st century by ECHAM5/MPI-OM, changes of annual temperature and precipitation in the Songhua River basin were analyzed. The results show that annual temperature has increased dramatically since the beginning of the 1980s under global warming, but annual precipitation had no significant change trends except small decadal variations from 1961 to 2000. Relative to 1961-1990, annual temperature will increase significantly in the first 50 years of the 21st century, with an increment of more than 1 before the end of the 2040s; and annual precipitation will show no obvious trends in the first 50 years of the 21st century, but winter precipitation and temperature will increase, and spring precipitation will also increase.Key words: Songhua River basin; temperature; precipitation; climate change; projection基于ECHAM5模式预估2050年前中国旱涝格局趋势翟建青1,3，曾小凡1,3，苏布达2，姜 彤2（1 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室，南京 210008；2 中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081；3 中国科学院研究生院，北京 100049）摘 要：利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM气候模式输出的20012050年逐月降水量资料，考虑IPCC采用的3种排放情景（A2：温室气体高排放情景；A1B:温室气体中排放情景；B1：温室气体低排放情景），计算其标准化降水指数,分析了中国2050年前3种排放情景下的旱涝格局。结果表明：3种情景下旱涝趋势空间分布不同，其中A2情景下旱涝格局同19612000年观测到的旱涝格局相似，均存在一条由东北向西南的干旱带；而A1B和B1情景下旱涝格局则发生了很大的变化，尤其B1情景下出现了“北涝南旱”的格局。未来50 a干旱面积在A2情景下呈略增加趋势；A1B和B1情景下为减少趋势。3种情景下干旱频率的空间分布也各不相同。关键词：旱涝格局；标准化降水指数（SPI）；ECHAM5/MPI-OM气候模式；排放情景；中国Patterns of Dryness/Wetness in China Before 2050 Projected by the ECHAM5 ModelZhai Jianqing1, 3, Zeng Xiaofan1, 3, Su Buda2, Jiang Tong2(1 State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China; 2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)Abstract: This study investigated future spatial distribution of dryness/wetness in China during the first 50 years of 21st century according to standardized precipitation index (SPI) which was calculated from the monthly precipitation data projected by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model under the SRES-A2 (high emission), SRES-A1B (mediate emission) and SRES-B1 (low emission) scenarios of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results show that the projected dryness/wetness pattern in the future 50 years under the SRES-A2 scenario is similar to the observed one in 1961-2000, i.e. there is a SW-NE oriented drought belt from Southwest China to Northeast China; but the projected patterns under the SRES-A1B and SRES-B1 scenarios are different, especially under the SRES-B1 scenario, a north-wetness-south-dryness pattern was projected. The area of drought was projected to weakly increase under the SRES-A2 scenario but to decline under the SRES-A1B and SRES-B1 scenarios. Spatial distributions of the frequency of droughts were also projected to be different from each other.Key words: dryness/wetness pattern; standardized precipitation index (SPI); ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model; emission scenario; China19512006年黄河和长江流域雨涝变化分析张 勇1，张 强1，叶殿秀1，陈鲜艳1，尚赞娣2（1 中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081；2 交通部科学研究院，北京 100029）摘 要：根据19512006年黄河和长江流域雨涝灾害灾情统计资料，分析了两个流域雨涝灾害发生频率的时空分布特征，结果表明：近50 a以来，特别是20世纪80年代以来，受气候变化影响，黄河和长江流域雨涝灾害不断增加，农作物受灾、成灾面积呈增加趋势，损失日趋严重，且长江流域受雨涝灾害影响范围较大，灾害发生频率大于黄河流域。受暴雨影响，夏季两个流域雨涝发生频率最高、范围最广。20世纪80年代末以来，黄河流域雨涝灾害增加趋势较为明显，而长江流域80年代初雨涝受灾面积和成灾面积显著增加。两个流域雨涝灾害的受灾率均自上游至下游逐渐增加，其中长江流域中下游地区受雨涝灾害影响较大。关键词：黄河流域；长江流域；雨涝；受灾率；灾害 Analysis of Rain-Waterlogging in the Yellow River and the Yangtze River Basins During 1951-2006Zhang Yong1, Zhang Qiang1, Ye Dianxiu1, Chen Xianyan1, Shang Zandi2(1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2 China Academy of Transportation Sciences, Beijing 100029, China)Abstract: Based on the statistical information of meteorological and agricultural inundation disaster data from 1951 to 2006, the characteristics of the spatial and temporal distribution of the occurrence frequency of rain-waterlogging process (defined as 10-day accumulated rainfall 250 mm (150 mm in Northwest China) or 20-day accumulated rainfall 350 mm (250 mm in Northwest China) in the Yellow River and the Yangtze River basins were analyzed, the results show that rain-waterlogging in the two river basins has continually increased during the last 50 years, especially after the 1980s due to the impact of climate change; inundated cropland areas and economic losses showed increasing trends. The rain-waterlogging range was larger and the occurrence frequency of rain-waterlogging was higher in the Yangtze River basin in comparison with the Yellow Rive basin. Summer was a season in one year when the occurrence frequency of rain-waterlogging was the highest and its range was the largest due to the influence of rainstorms. Since the end of the 1980s, rainstorm disaster has distinctively increased in the Yellow Rive basin, and since the early 1980s inundated cropland area has remarkably increased in the Yangtze River basin. The inundation ratios of rain-waterlogging in the two river basins gradually increased from the upper reaches to lower reaches, and the impacts of rain-waterlogging disaster were relatively larger in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin.Key words: Yellow River basin; Yangtze River basin; rain-waterlogging; inundation ratio; disaster北京市19962007年住宅空调致冷耗能影响因素分析陈 莉1，李 帅2，方修琦3，陈 坤4（1 黑龙江省哈尔滨市气象局，哈尔滨 150080；2 黑龙江省气象科学研究所，哈尔滨 150030；3 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院，北京 100875；4 黑龙江省第一建筑工程公司，哈尔滨 150060）摘要：采用气象资料和经济统计资料，以北京市为例，分析了城镇住宅空调致冷耗能的影响因素。结果显示：在一定建筑设计标准下，直接影响城镇住宅空调致冷耗能的因子主要有降温强度、城镇人口数、人均住宅建筑面积和城镇家庭空调器拥有比例。总的来说，由于目前中国城市化进程的加速，城镇人口、人均住宅建筑面积、城镇空调器拥有比例在不断增加，因此，无论气候变暖或变冷，各地空调致冷耗能不可避免地在增加。在上述因子中，气候是目前为止唯一可能起到降低能耗作用的因子。对于城市化较快的北京市，由于城镇家庭空调器拥有比例的快速增长，城镇家庭空调器拥有比例这一因子对空调致冷耗能增量的贡献率普遍最大。关键词：城镇住宅；空调致冷耗能；影响因素；贡献率；