中英文对照阅读--冰岛再次成为欧洲的定时炸弹.doc

中英文对照阅读-冰岛再次成为欧洲的定时炸弹冰岛再次成为欧洲的定时炸弹冰岛是全球金融危机期间第一个崩盘的国家，也是第一个实现反弹的国家。同时，冰岛面临的问题是大多数欧洲国家都面临的问题，它堪称欧洲经济之弊的一个样本。现在，新一轮的冰岛危机可能再次来袭，而冰岛的危机可能会是欧洲大陆危机的提前预演。冰岛存疑的经济复苏势必将大白天下，而这可能会给欧洲其他国家带来严重后果。自2008年以来，这个小岛国一直得以规避全局性的经济崩盘，这在很大程度上是因为冰岛政府实施的资本管制使得其本币免于崩溃。与此同时，这个国家的“僵尸”银行都设法避免了彻底倒闭，因为它们的拖延战术使它们与债权人清算擦肩而过。但是，冰岛政府和银行在本地人口与外部元素之间架设的隔离墙终于开始坍塌。不幸的是，目前冰岛在自救方面已经心有余而力不足，它最终将不得不面对残酷现实。但更令市场担忧的是，新一轮冰岛货币危机在未来几个月内可能会对整个欧洲产生什么样的影响？毕竟，2008年冰岛轰然崩盘正是让欧洲陷入债务危机的动因，因为它暴露了欧洲地区银行系统的弱点。冰岛再度崩盘可以轻易重新点燃投资者的担忧情绪，从而让欧洲大陆再度陷入恐慌。经济繁荣时期的冰岛看上去不像一个主权国家，而更像是一只对冲基金。冰岛的三家主要银行过去在全球各地收购资产，最高峰的时候持有资产规模约为其年度国内生产总值（GDP）的10倍。它们之所以能够吸引到如此巨额的资金，主要是因为它们向以英国人和荷兰人为主的储户承诺丰厚的投资回报率往往是这些海外储户所在国投资回报率的数倍。这些银行曾一度能兑现这个诺言，因为它们可以低价借入以某一货币计价的资金，然后以其他更高利率货币计价的资金借出。这还使得它们能够向本国居民借出数十亿冰岛克朗，助长了肆无忌惮的房地产泡沫。当然，这一切最终都轰然倒塌。这些推动银行利润飙升的套利交易消失，而大量的房产贷款也变为不良贷款。冰岛的经济开始崩溃，陷入一个货币贬值与恶性通胀主导的破坏性螺旋，险些使冰岛克朗兑其他货币汇率堕入万劫不复的境地，居民储蓄也差点一夜间变成废纸。冰岛政府迅速做出反应，在国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund，简称：IMF）的帮助下，推出了资本控制措施限制资金出入境。此举保住了冰岛克朗币值。与此同时，IMF借给冰岛近50亿美元的稳定基金用于纾困。这笔资金可能听上去并不多，但它实际上已经超过冰岛GDP的三分之一。现在冰岛经济似乎已经出现反弹，增长速度超过了大部分其他欧洲国家。失业率也从2009年的峰值8%大幅下降到如今的4%左右。与此同时，国内消费者信心也与日俱增，而旅游业也出现不断增长的势头。旅游业是冰岛两大产业之一，另一大产业是渔业。所有的一切似乎表明，冰岛已经复苏，至少大多数经济学家乃至IMF都这么认为。但值得注意的是，冰岛在解决自身的经济问题方面几乎没有取得任何实质性的进展。冰岛政府及其银行业只是采用了拖延疼痛的措施，治标不治本。政府在2008年实施的资本管制如今仍然生效，意味着本国公民以及冰岛庞大的退休保险基金只能主要投资于冰岛。与此同时，冰岛消费者仍然很难买到进口产品，只能购买不太理想的本地货，从而给国内经济带来一种人为刺激。同时，高利率使借贷成本高昂。不过，考虑到现在冰岛的“僵尸”银行并没有真正在放贷（它们正为资产负债表上价值数十亿克朗的不良贷款忙得焦头烂额），借贷成本高昂的问题反而显得无足轻重。总之，冰岛的实际GDP仍然比金融危机前峰值低10%。而尽管2011年冰岛GDP确实增长了2.9%左右，但增速到去年已经放缓至1.6%左右，今年预计会进一步下滑。这是资本管制丑陋的一面。简而言之，通过限制人们可以购买和投资的对象，即只有冰岛国内的产品和投资机会，人们最终会停止消费。事实上，冰岛的国内消费和投资均较危机前的水平下降了20%，而且跌势还在延续。冰岛人纷纷选择偿还债务，这虽然是好事，但它的代价是经济增长放缓。尽管债务有所减轻，但居民和企业的债务水平仍然很高，分别为GDP的109%和170%。因为经济增长放缓而备感沮丧的冰岛人在5月份投票选出了一个新的联合政府，它正是经济繁荣时期当权的政府。新政府在竞选期间承诺将解除资本管制，同时迫使银行削减居民的抵押贷款本金。可以理解的是，这个承诺动摇了评级机构对冰岛的观点。标准普尔（S&P）6月份将冰岛的信用评级前景下调为负面，理由是担心新政府会落实这项计划。IMF也表达了类似的保守观点。冰岛选择的余地有限。如果它保持资本管制，经济将继续萎缩；若解除资本管制，国内资产价值便会下跌，因为冰岛人会将资金转移至境外。新政府称，外国直接投资将抵消资本外流的影响，但他们要么是极度乐观，要么完全是被误导了。解除资本管制将导致房价和其他冰岛资产价格大幅下跌，从而导致新一轮的银行业恐慌。在这种混乱之后，冰岛政府依然认为外国投资者还会纷来沓至吗？由于冰岛经济体量小，有些人可能想当然地认为这个国家并不是欧洲机器的一个重要齿轮。但冰岛正面临着许多同样困扰着更大经济体的问题。例如，在欧洲主权债务危机的余波之中，几个欧洲国家都实施了资本管制措施。这些国家选择何时及如何解除这种管制将对欧元币值产生深远的影响，从而影响到整个欧洲大陆经济的完整性。此外，冰岛的银行和西班牙银行业也如出一辙，因为它们都曾为已经破裂的房地产泡沫添柴加火。资本管制解除后，冰岛的银行如何处理不良贷款问题可能会对投资者如何看待西班牙及其银行业问题产生重大影响。冰岛银行业预计将迫使资者和大额储户承担约75%至100%的亏损。这些投资者和大额储户中有许多是同时买卖主权债务和主权债务保险的对冲基金。这些对冲基金采取的报复方式可能会同样用在意大利或法国，而这两个国家的主权债务占GDP比例正不断上升。冰岛不容忽视。毕竟，它是第一个在全球金融危机期间崩盘的国家，也是第一个实现GDP反弹的国家之一。它的小体量和简单的经济结构意味着它无法将自身的问题掩盖在一堆混淆视听的货币行动中。这意味着，相对于陷入类似困境的大国，冰岛会早早地面临残酷的现实。因此，投资者将密切关注冰岛新政府的举动。如果它开始摇摇欲坠，欧洲的其他地方可能将是下一张倒下的多米诺骨牌。The inevitable unmasking of Icelands dubious economic recovery could have severe consequences for the rest of Europe. Since 2008, the small island nation has been able to avoid an all-out economic meltdown thanks largely to government-imposed capital controls that have kept its currency from imploding. At the same time, the nations zombie banks have managed to avoid total collapse thanks to delay tactics that have allowed them to avoid settling with their creditors.But the walls the government and its banks erected to shield its population from the outside elements have finally started to crumble. Unfortunately, there is not much Iceland can do to save itself at this point; it will need to face the music eventually. The bigger concern is what impact another Icelandic currency crisis could have on Europe in the months ahead. After all, Icelands spectacular collapse in 2008 helped set the European debt crisis in motion as it exposed weaknesses in the regions banking system. Another Icelandic meltdown could easily reignite investor fears, leading to yet another panic on the continent.During the boom years Iceland was run more like a hedge fund than a sovereign nation. Its three main banks accumulated assets from around the globe that at its height equaled around 10 times the nations total annual economic output, or GDP. They were able to attract this enormous amount of capital by promising depositors, mostly in the U.K. and the Netherlands, returns on their cash that were multiples of what they could receive back home. For a time, the banks were able to deliver on their promises as they borrowed cheaply in one currency and lent in others that carried higher interest rates. This allowed them to lend billions of Icelandic Krona to their own population, fueling a property bubble of unmitigated proportion.Eventually, of course, it all came crashing down. The carry trade that fueled bank profits disappeared, and a great deal of those property loans turned sour. Icelands economy started to crash, falling into a destructive devaluation-inflation led spiral that threatened to obliterate the value of the Icelandic Krona relative to other currencies and wipe out the savings of its citizens overnight.The Icelandic government responded quickly, and with the help of the International Monetary Fund, introduced capital controls to restrict the flow of money in and out of the country. This preserved the value of its currency. At the same time, the IMF lent Iceland nearly $5 billion to stabilize itself. That may not seem like a lot of money, but it is actually equal to more than a third of Icelands GDP.Icelands economy appears as if it has rebounded, growing faster than most of its European cousins. Unemployment has fallen sharply from a peak of 8% in 2009 to around half that today. At the same time, consumer confidence in the country is growing, as is tourism, which is one of the two major industries in Iceland, the other being fishing. All in all it seems that Iceland has recovered, at least that is what most economists and even the IMF say.But hang on: Iceland has made little, if any, real progress in tackling its economic issues. The government and its banks have simply employed measures designed to delay the pain, not cure the disease. Capital controls imposed by the government in 2008 are still in effect, forcing its citizens, and, more importantly, the nations massive pension fund, to invest mainly in Iceland. At the same time, Icelandic consumers still find it hard to buy foreign goods, forcing them to buy less-desirable local equivalents, giving an artificial boost to the domestic economy. Meanwhile, high interest rates have made borrowing expensive. A moot point, considering Icelands now-zombie banks arent really lending; they are too busy dealing with fallout from the billions of krona worth of bad loans on their books.All in all, real output in Iceland remains 10% below the pre-crisis peak. And while GDP did grow at around 2.9% in 2011, it slowed to around 1.6% last year and is expected to fall even further this year. This is the ugly side of capital controls. In short, by restricting what people can buy and invest in, i.e. only Icelandic goods and opportunities, individuals eventually stop spending.Indeed, domestic consumption and investment in Iceland are both down 20% from their pre-crisis levels and continue to fall. Icelanders are instead choosing to pay down their debts, which, while positive, comes at the expense of economic growth. And despite the debt paydown, household and corporate debt remain high, coming in at 109% and 170% of GDP, respectively.Icelanders, frustrated with the slowdown in economic growth, voted in a new government coalition in May, the same that was in power during the boom years. The new government promised during the campaign to lift the capital controls and to force banks to cut peoples mortgage principals. This has understandably shaken the rating agencies. S&P lowered its outlook on Iceland to negative in June on concern that the new government will go through with its plans. The IMF has expressed similar reservations.Iceland has few good options. If it keeps the capital controls in place its economy will continue to shrink; lift them and asset values will fall as Icelanders ship their cash out of the country. The new government says that foreign direct investment will make up for the capital outflows, but they are either extremely optimistic or completely misguided. The lifting of capital controls will cause housing prices and other Icelandic assets to fall dramatically leading to yet another bank panic. In the wake of this chaos the Icelandic government believes foreign investors will come strolling in?Iceland is small; its easy to see why some might not think the country an important cog in the European machine. But Iceland is facing many of the same issues afflicting much larger economies. For example, capital controls have been instituted in several European nations amid the fallout from the sovereign debt crisis. How and when those nations choose to lift such controls will have a profound impact on the value of the euro and thus the economic integrity of the entire continent.Furthermore, Icelands banks are not unlike those in Spain as they both financed housing booms gone bust. How Icelands banks deal with the problem of its bad loans after capital con