日本不闹,日股向好(Japan stops churning,Japan stocks will be rising!).doc

日本不闹，日股向好！Japan stops churning, Japan stocks will be rising!数周前，闲来无事，忽然有兴趣比较一下为何泰国（1997年）和日本（1990年）各自大崩盘以后，泰国能涨起来而日本不仅不能还反复下跌了二十多年。然而本人在收集资料后偶尔发现，日本股市连跌二十多年到现在，反而可能是一个良好的投资机会了。就看日本政客们闹不闹了。先看下图，回顾日本股市从1949年到现在的走势（东证指数，来源东京证交所）。可见从90年代初期到现在连跌二十多年，跌到了最高点的不足四分之一。看来十分惨淡，但是机会也渐渐出现了。再看下图，东证指数的市盈率。（平顶是因为市盈率过高，高于70）现在的PE是数十年的低点，以日本接近为零的利率环境而言，简直太划算了！我们可以比较一下中国和日本的无风险利率（用国债收益率代表）就知道了。中国国债收益率：大约是3.5%。中国股市市盈率约10倍。日本国债收益率：大约0.8%。日本股市市盈率约22倍。如果再看日本股市的股息率，就更划算了。下图是东证指数股息率：可惜只有1998年以来的，但也说明问题了。股息率从一直以来的很低1%左右，升到现在的2.5%左右，高于国债回报率数倍。东证指数包含1500多家公司的总体股息率。这个大总体如此之高，令人垂涎啊！其效果相当于，投资者分散买入如此多的大型公司以后可以一方面享受远远高于国债和存款利息的股息率，一方面还能坐等未来股市的上升。世界范围内这样的好事现在已经很少见了。本人真希望中国也有这样的好事！按照诺贝尔经济学得奖人、著名经济学家托宾（Tobin）的理论。经济低迷使股市到达低点的时候，由于盈利下降，市盈率反而可能偏高导致股市仍然高的假象。这时候应该用所谓“托宾的Q值（Tobins Q）”，低于1就是便宜。Q就是股价/重置成本。我们先看看代替性指标市净率，就是股价/每股净资产（PB）。东证指数PB：现在约为0.8，也处于数十年的最低（下图）。每股净资产是历史成本，再加上通胀影响就是“重置成本”。日本通胀虽然不高，但也不是负数。因此日本股市的Q值比PB还要低。日本的人民和企业家们在这漫长的22年，还是为经济做了很多努力的。其中一项对股市有重大影响的努力，就是极大地降低了日本企业的负债。见下图，负债于股东权益之比（绿色阴影）从3倍多降低到了2.25倍。企业总体财务结构也是几十年来最好。私人投资在近十年来开始增加（图中蓝线）。随着财务结构的改善，日本公司的现金留存也大大改善，由负转正了，见下图。这也同时是股息率提高的重要原因之一。见下图（图中0处是1991年一季度）：由于日本长期经济不振，日本中央银行长时期保持接近零的利率，和宽松的货币供应。近来跟随美国的“QE3”，也决定增发80亿日圆的基础货币。这将使货币供应量维持扩大。日本市场的股价是连续下跌二十多年处于数十年低位、市盈率是数十年的低位、市净率是数十年的低位，股息率是数十年的高位，企业财务结构又是数十年最好。以上这些都是最近出现的，其实就是连跌二十多年跌出来的机会。如果再加上确定的极低利率水平和宽松货币政策前景，那么使股市上升我们还能要求什么呢？还真有一件事情，那就是前进的经济（至少不是倒退的）！然而日本少数政客的折腾很容易使前进的经济化为倒退。这岂不是延长日本股民已经忍受二十多年的痛苦吗？本人在此郑重呼吁日本股民，你们忍受了二十多年的市场持续下跌，肯定不是为了折腾而是为了回报。现在市场已经表现出了即将长期上升的曙光，但可能被少数政客的折腾而夭折。你们应该敦促日本政治家们回到和平发展的道路上来。那样日本股市将如期上升，你们就可以好好享受人类共同经济发展的成果，岂不美哉！至于具体投资策略和品种以及时机掌握，本人建议参照以下东证指数图形中的红线。一旦向上突破就投资于东证或者日经指数基金，然后长期持有。既享受资本增值又享受高额股息回报。东证有成熟的日经225指数的ETF，比如编号1346、1321等。甚至在其他国家（如美国、英国等等）也有日经225指数的ETF交易。不过依照本人的年纪，喜欢更多的股息，因此可能将投资于东证股息关注100 指数（Tokyo Stock Exchange Dividend Focus 100 Index），见下图：一旦突破黑线就立刻买入此指数的基金。此指数于2010年初推出，按照今年七月三十一日东京证交所的报告，该指数估计股息率是3.52%。 东证已经有此指数的ETF交易了，比如编号1698（日清证券管理的基金，管理费率0.294%，其他费最多不超过0.1%。比起国内的指数基金管理费0.5%和托管费0.1%来，划算很多啊。国内的基金管理公司应该学习）。以上提到的指数基金均很容易地经过在香港的大型金融机构来买卖。望你们体会本人的苦心为盼！ Japan stops churning, Japan stocks will be rising!As an independent investor, I have a lot of leisure time. Several weeks ago, I was suddenly interested in looking at why Thailand stock market can go up again after market crash(1997) but Japan(1990 crash) cannot. After collecting data, I accidentally found that Japan stock market may presents a good opportunity now after more than two decades of decline. But the key question is whether Japan politicians stop churning or not.See the following chart and look back the history of Japan market from 1949 to now.(Topix index, TSE website)Japan stock market has been declining since 1990. More-than-22-year decline brought the index to less than 1/4 of the its1990 high, What a miserable situation! But opportunity may step in now. See the following chart(PE of Topix, TSE website):(Flat line is because PE is higher than 70)Now PE ratio is the lowest in decades. Compared with zero interest environment, it is very attractive! In addition, we can compare the riskless rate(use government bond yield as proxy) of China and Japan. See the following chart:China Government Bond yield is about 3.5%, China stock market PE is about 10.Japan Government Bond yield is about 0.8%, Japan stock market PE is abouti 22.If we look at dividend yield of Japan stock market, it is more than attractive. Next chart is dividend yield of Topix index(data only from 1998, but enough to be convincing). Dividend yield of Japan had been always very low, but it now climbs to over 2.5%, As a aggregate of more than 1500 listed companies, it is very appetizing! That means an investor can invest in a diversified portfolio of over 1500 large companies, enjoying dividend much higher than yield of Government bond or bank saving while waiting for market rise. This is rarely seen in the world at this moment. I really hope such a good thing in China. According to Noble Prize winner、famous economist Tobin, when economy recessions make stock market get into the bottom, PE ratio may appear to be high because of low corporate earnings. At that moment, Topins Q should be used in order not to misjudge. Q is stock price/replacing cost. If Q is less than 1, the market is cheap. So let us see Price/Book value(PB) first. Next chart is the historical PB of Topix index. It is about 0.8, the lowest in decades.Book value is historical cost, it can be adjusted to replacing cost by adding effect of inflation. Inflation rate in Japan is low but is greater than zero, so the replacing cost is greater than book value, therefore Japan stock market Q is even lower than its PB.Japanese people and businessmen did a lot of works in this long 22 years. One of them is important for stock market: reducing corporate leverage. See next chart, corporate debt-to-equity ratio (green shadow) has been reduced from over 3 times to 2.25 times. The corporate are strong financially and private investment (blue line) has been increasing in recent decade.Along with the improvement of financial structure, cash positions of Japanese companies have been also improved from negative to positive, see next chart(0 means Q1 of 1991). That is one of important reasons why dividend yields have been increasing.Because Japan economy has been stagnate for long time, Japanese central bank also kept a near-zero interest rate and a expansionary money policy. Recently, the central bank follow USAs QE3 by increasing its money basis. This will keep the money supply increasing.Now, the price of Japan stock market is the lowest in decades due to continuous decline in 22 years、PE ratio is the lowest in decades、price/book ratio is the lowest in decades、dividend yield is the highest in decades、corporate is the strongest financially in decades. In addition to a definite future of extremely low interest rate and expansionary money policy, whatever else do we need for a rising stock market? Yes indeed! One thing only, a progressing economy (at least not retreating). But some Japanese politicians churning actions can easily make economy retreating, does this prolong painful experience of Japanese investors over last 22 years?Here I sincerely call on Japanese investors. You have experienced 22 years of market decline, but for what? Certainly not for churning but for earning! Now the opportunity shows itself only after 22 years of decline, and rising market is already in horizon, but it can be abortive because of churning. You should urge some politicians to change their mind and to follow the route of peaceful development. And then Japan stock market will be rising, you can enjoy the economy development of mankind. Isnt it wonderful?!As for investment selection、strategy and timing, I suggest to watch the red trend line in next chart (Topix). If it is broken upward, you can invest in Topix or Nikkei index fund, and hold on for a long term. You can enjoy capital gain in the future as well as high dividend now. There are some Topix and Nikkei ETF