Unit 10 The Fantastic Spurt in Technology课文翻译大学英语三.doc

Unit 10 The Fantastic Spurt in TechnologyA. TofflerAlvin Toffler writes about the fact that technology is advancing much faster today than ever before in history. The symbols of technology are no longer factory smokestacks or assembly lines. As we are headed for the future, the pace will quicken still further.To most people the term technology conjures up images of smoky steel mills or noisy machines. Perhaps the classic representation of technology is still the assembly line created by Henry Ford half a century ago and made into a social symbol by Charlie Chaplin in Modern Times. This symbol, however, has always been inadequate and misleading, for technology has always been more than factories and machines. The invention of the horse collar in the middle ages led to major changes in agricultural methods and was as much a technological advance as the invention of the Bessemer furnace centuries later. Moreover, technology includes techniques, or ways to do things, as well as the machines that may or may not be necessary to apply them. It includes ways to make chemical reactions occur, ways to breed fish, plant forests, light theaters, count votes or teach history.The old symbols of technology are even more misleading today, when the most advanced technological processes are carried out far from assembly lines or blast furnaces. Indeed, in electronics, in space technology, in most of the new industries, quiet and clean surroundings are characteristic - even sometimes essential. And the assembly line - the organization of large numbers of men to carry out simple repetitive functions - is outdated. It is time for our symbols of technology to change - to catch up with the quickening change in technology itself.This acceleration is frequently dramatized by a brief account of the progress in transportation. It has been pointed out, for example, that in 6000 BC the fastest transportation available to man over long distances was the camel caravan, averaging eight miles per hour (mph). It was not until about 1600 BC when the chariot was invented that the maximum speed was raised to roughly twenty miles per hour.So impressive was this invention, so difficult was it to exceed this speed limit, that nearly 3,500 years later, when the first mail coach began operating in England in 1784, it averaged a mere ten mph. The first steam locomotive, introduced in 1825, could have a top speed of only thirteen mph and the great sailing ships of the time labored along at less tan half that speed. It was probably not until the 1880s that man, with the help of a more advanced steam locomotive, managed to reach a speed of one hundred mph. It took the human race millions of years to attain that record.It took only fifty-eight years, however, to go four times that fast, so that by 1938 men in airplanes were traveling at better than 400 mph. It took a mere twenty-year flick of time to double the limit again. And by the 1960s rocket plants approached speeds of 4,00 mph. and men in space capsules were circling the earth at 18,000 mph.Whether we examine distances traveled, altitudes reached, or minerals mined, the same accelerative trend is obvious. The pattern, here and in a thousand other statistical series, is absolutely clear and unmistakable. Thousands of years go by, and then, in our won times, a sudden bursting of the limits, a fantastic spurt forward.The reason for this is tat technology feeds on itself. Technology makes more technology possible, as we can see if we look for a moment at the process of innovation. Technological innovation consists of three stages, linked together into a self-reinforcing cycle. First, there is the creative, feasible idea. Second, its practical application. Third, its diffusion through society.The process is completed, the loop closed, when the diffusion of technology embodying the new idea, in turn, helps generate new creative ideas. Today there is evidence that the time between each of the steps in this cycle has been shortened.Thus it is not merely true, as frequently noted, that 90 percent of all the scientists who ever lived are now alive, and that new scientific discoveries are being mad every day. These new ideas are put to work much more quickly than ever before. The time between the first and second stages of the cycle - between idea and application - has been radically reduced. This is a striking difference between ourselves and our ancestors. It is not that we are more eager or less lazy than our ancestors, but we have, with the passage of time, invented all sorts of social device to hasten the process.But if it takes less time to bring a new idea to the marketplace, it also takes less time for it to sweep through the society. For example, the refrigerator was introduced in the United States before 1920, yet its peak production did not come until more than thirty years later. However, by 1950 - in only a few years - television had grown from a laboratory novelty to the biggest part of show business. So the interval between the second and third stages of the cycle - between application and diffusion - has likewise been cut, and the pace of diffusion is rising with astonishing speed. The stepped-up pace of invention, application and diffusion, in turn, accelerates the whole cycle still further. For new machines or techniques are not merely a product, but a source, of fresh creative ideas.技术的突飞猛进“技术”这个术语是大多数人的脑海里显现的景物是浓烟笼罩的钢铁厂或运转轰鸣的机器。也许，技术的典型代表仍然是亨利.福特在半个世纪前首创的流水作业线，而且，查理.卓别林在电影摩登时代里已把它变成了现代社会的相片。然而，这一象征一直都不全面，而且容易使人产生误解，因为技术所包括的内涵不只是工厂和机器。中世纪发明的马厩曾经引起了农业耕作方法的重要变革。它与几个世纪后发明的贝萨美鼓风炉一样，也是一项先进科技。而且科技不仅包括技术，机器，还包括做事方法，而机器不一定要用到。因为，它包括促成化学反应的方法，又包括养鱼，造林，剧院照明，选票统计以及历史数学的方法。在今天，最先进的技术工艺是在流水作业线或鼓风炉的操作截然不同。因而，旧的技术象征就会使人产生误解。的确，安静和洁净的工作环境是电子技术，太空技术以及大部分新工业的特点甚至有时是非要不可的。而且，流水作业线大批的人重复进行简单操作的这种组织已经过时。是我们改变技术象征的时候了只有这样，才能跟上技术本身加速变化的步伐。通过简要的叙述一下运输业的发展就可以显示技术上的这种加速变化。例如，在公元前六千年的时候，人类最快的长途运输手段是骆驼运输队，其平均时速为八英里。直到公元前一千六百年后，人类发明了双轮马拉战车后才将最高时速提高到每小时二十英里左右。双轮马车如此非凡，它所创下的时速难以逾越，在将近3500年后的1784年，第一辆邮车在英国运行时，其平均时速也不过十英里而已。当第一辆蒸汽机车于1825年诞生时，其最高时速也不过十三英里，而那时的大帆船却只能以不到蒸汽机车时速一半的速度在海上缓慢行驶。大约直到十九世纪八十年代，在一种更先进的蒸汽机车的帮助下，人类才达到了每小时一百英里的速度。这一纪录人类花了百万年的时间才达到。可是到后来，人类只用了五十八年的时间就把这一纪录提高了三倍。在1938年，人们乘坐飞机旅行时，其实苏已经超过了四百英里。然后，有仅仅只用了二十年的时间弹指一挥的时间，这个时速又再次翻了一番。到了二十世纪六十年代，火箭的速度已经接近每小时四千英里了，而人类乘坐宇宙飞船绕地球飞行，其时速达到了每小时一万八千英里。 无论我们考察旅行的距离，能达到的高度，还是考察矿产的开采，我们都可以发现这种加速的趋势。无论是本文，还是其它系列统计资料都明确无误地呈现出这种加速模式。几千年过去了，现在，在我们