林毅夫-如何来评价传统的赶超战略.doc

中国经济专题-2003年秋-第六讲第六讲：如何来评价传统的赶超战略?（中国经济专题教学影音资料第8讲上）2. The performance of the leap-forward strategy.1. The rate of accumulation (table 3.1).1st FYP (53-57)24.22nd FYP (58-62)30.863-6522.73rd FYP (66-70)26.34th (71-75)33.02. The structure of investment (table 3.2)ALHO1st FYP 7.1 6.436.250.32nd FYP 11.3 6.454.028.363-6517.6 3.945.932.63rd FYP 10.7 4.451.133.84th 9.8 5.849.634.83. The sector weight (table 3.3)525762657075Agri.57.746.848.146.240.437.8Indu.19.5 28.332.836.441.046.0Other22.8 24.519.217.418.616.24. The growth rate (table 3.1)-GDP1st FYP (53-57) 9.12nd FYP (58-62)-2.263-6514.93rd FYP (66-70) 6.94th (71-75) 5.553-78 6.05. Sector weight, international comparison. (fig. 3.1)The manufacturing sector is larger than that of a typical middle income country. Figure 3.1.3. The problem of the leap-forward strategy1. Structural distortiona. Employment structure. (table 3.4) why?Agr.Ind.Other5283.56.010.55781.25.912.96581.66.412.07873.312.514.2b. Urbanization (table 3.5)10020030040050022.036.243.949.052.7Chnery and Syrquin, Patterns of Development, 1950-70.China in 195212.5 in 198019.42. Incentive problema. Share of working capital in total capital (table 3.9).China198132.7India197927.9Korea1963 7.0Japan195319.9England197012.6USSR197229.5Source: World Bank, 1984, China Economic Structure in International Perspective.b. incentive (table 3.8).The Production of GDP (in 1980 dollars)EnergyStealTransk. Coal/Ton/Ton.km/US$M.US$US$China2.90127.33.10India1.77 98.41.67Korea1.12113.80.47Brazil0.88 57.11.40Japan0.51 63.00.41France0.45 30.9US1.05 44.81.80England0.57 30.0German0.49 43.7Source: World Bank, 1984, China Economic Structure in International Perspective.3. The resulta. Low Total Factor Productivity Growth (Table 3.10)TFP Growth RateTFP growth inper annumin GDP growthChina:1952-810.53 (-1.0)8(-17)1952-750.3(-1.1)5(-18)1975-811.0(-0.3)17(-5)Brazil:1950-603.7541955-702.1341966-741.622Korea:1955-602.0471955-705.0571960-734.142Spain1959-655.044Japan:1952-713.8381952-645.1531966-734.541US:1947-601.4381960-731.330USSR1950-601.9321960-701.5291960-701.5291970-750.1 3Average of19 LDCs2.031Average of12 marketeconomies2.749b. Low living standard i