曼昆中级宏观经济学第五版第二章.ppt

Learningobjectives Inthischapter youwilllearnabouthowwedefineandmeasure GrossDomesticProduct GDP theConsumerPriceIndex CPI theUnemploymentRate GrossDomesticProduct Twodefinitions 1 Totalexpenditureondomestically producedfinalgoodsandservices2 Totalincomeearnedbydomestically locatedfactorsofproduction Whyexpenditure income Ineverytransaction thebuyer sexpenditurebecomestheseller sincome Thus thesumofallexpenditureequalsthesumofallincome TheCircularFlow Valueadded definition Afirm svalueaddedisthevalueofitsoutputminusthevalueoftheintermediategoodsthefirmusedtoproducethatoutput Exercise Afarmergrowsabushelofwheatandsellsittoamillerfor 1 00 Themillerturnsthewheatintoflourandsellsittoabakerfor 3 00 Thebakerusestheflourtomakealoafofbreadandsellsittoanengineerfor 6 00 Theengineereatsthebread ComputevalueaddedateachstageofproductionGDP ExerciseAnswer Farmer 1Miller 3 1 2Baker 6 3 3TotalGDP 6TotalGDPisthesumofvalueadded orthevalueofthefinalgood TheMeasurementofGDP GDPmeasurestwothingsatonce ThetotalincomeofeveryoneintheeconomyThetotalexpenditureontheeconomy soutputofgoodsandservices GrossDomesticProduct Themarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountryinagivenperiodoftime TheMeasurementofGDP TheMarketValue MarketpricesareusedAddtogethermanydifferentitems apples shoes lawyerfees tuitions etc ofAll Inclusions allitemsproducedandsoldlegallyinthemarket Exclusions illegalgoodsorservicesoritemsthatarenotsoldinmarkets TheMeasurementofGDP Final AharddrivesoldtoDellisanintermediategoodnotincludedinGDP AharddrivesoldtometoenlargethestorageofmyDelllaptopisafinalgoodcountedintoGDP ThevalueofaharddriveisalreadyincludedaspartofthevalueofaDellPC Seagate sunsoldharddrives Asaninventory countedasfinalgoodsaswell TheMeasurementofGDP GoodsandServices Bothtangiblegoods food clothing cars andintangiblegoods haircuts housecleaning doctorvisits Aswellasthosegoodsandservicesprovidedbythegovernment Produced UsedcarsalesnotcountedintoGDP Financialtransactionsnotincluded TheMeasurementofGDP WithinaCountry WithinthegeographicbordersMyteachinginEmoryiscountedaspartofU S GDPnotChina sCocaCola s2 3ofannualsalesarecountedasGDPofcountriesotherthanU S InaGivenPeriodofTime AyearoraquarterReportedinannualbasisandseasonallyadjusted TheComponentsofGDP GDP Y isthesumofthefollowing Consumption C Investment I GovernmentPurchases G NetExports NX Y C I G NX Consumption C durablegoodse g cars homeappliancesnon durablegoodse g food clothingservicese g drycleaning airtravel Thevalueofallgoodsandservicesboughtbyhouseholdwiththeexceptionofpurchasesofnewhousing U S Consumption 2001 Investment I def1 spendingon thefactorofproduction capital def2 spendingongoodsandservicesforfutureuse Includes businessfixedinvestmentspendingonplantandequipmentthatfirmswillusetoproduceothergoodsandservicesresidentialfixedinvestmentspendingonhousingunitsbyconsumersandlandlordsinventoryinvestmentthechangeinthevalueofallfirms inventories U S Investment 2001 Investmentvs Capital Capitalisoneofthefactorsofproduction Atanygivenmoment theeconomyhasacertainoverallstockofcapital Investmentisspendingonnewcapital Investmentvs Capital Example assumesnodepreciation 1 1 2002 economyhas 500bworthofcapitalduring2002 investment 37b1 1 2003 economywillhave 537bworthofcapital Stocksvs Flows stockflowaperson swealthaperson ssaving ofpeoplewith ofnewcollegecollegedegreesgraduatesthegovt debtthegovt budgetdeficit Moreexamples Governmentspending G Gincludesallgovernmentspendingongoodsandservices Gexcludestransferpayments e g unemploymentinsurancepayments theyarenotmadeinexchangeforcurrentlyproducedgoodsandservices Governmentspending 2001 Netexports NX EX IM Thevalueoftotalexports EX minusthevalueoftotalimports IM China snetexportssource IFS Animportantidentity Y C I G NXwhereY GDP thevalueoftotaloutputC I G NX aggregateexpenditure MeasureofNationalIncome WhomakestheexpenditureTypeofexpenditureHouseholdsConsumption Food clothes haircuts newcars BusinessfirmsInvestment Newfactoriesandequipment newhouses increasesininventorystocks GovernmentsGovernmentpurchases Newschoolbuildings newmilitaryhardware salariesofsoldiersandgovernmentofficials ForeignsectorsNetexports orexportsminusimports exportedmanufacturedgoods legalandfinancialservicesprovidedbydomesticresidentstoforeigners USGDPandItsComponents 2004 CompositionofChina sGDPsource PennWorldTable6 2 CompositionofChina sGDP CompositionofUSGDP Aquestionforyou Supposeafirmproduces 10millionworthoffinalgoodsbutonlysells 9millionworth Doesthisviolatetheexpenditure outputidentity Whyoutput expenditure Unsoldoutputgoesintoinventory andiscountedas inventoryinvestment whethertheinventorybuildupwasintentionalornot Ineffect weareassumingthatfirmspurchasetheirunsoldoutput HowwouldeachofthefollowingtransactionaffecttheGDPofChina TheChinesegovernmentpays 1billioninsalariesforgovernmentworkersfightingforthesnowcrisis TheChinesegovernmentpays 1billiontouninsuredseniorcitizenstocovertheirmedicalexpenses TheChinesegovernmentpaysLenovo 1billionfornewlyproducedlaptops TheChinesegovernmentpays 1billiontoSaudiArabiaforcrudeoiltoaddtoChina sofficialoilreserve Foreachofthefollowingtransactions statetheeffectbothonChina sGDPandonthefourcomponentsofaggregateexpenditure Yourmother in lawbuysanewcarfromCheryAuto Yourmother in lawbuysanewVolvoimportedfromSweden Yourmother in law scarrentalbusinessbuysanewBuickfromShanghaiGM Chinesegovernmentbuysanew domesticallyproducedPolofortheuseofyourmother in law whoistheambassadortoJapan GDP Animportantandversatileconcept WehavenowseenthatGDPmeasurestotalincometotaloutputtotalexpenditurethesumofvalue addedatallstagesintheproductionoffinalgoods GNPvs GDP GrossNationalProduct GNP totalincomeearnedbythenation sfactorsofproduction regardlessofwherelocatedGrossDomesticProduct GDP totalincomeearnedbydomestically locatedfactorsofproduction regardlessofnationality GNP GDP factorpaymentsfromabroad factorpaymentstoabroad DiscussionQuestion WhatexplainswhyGNPdiffersfromGDPforsomeofthefollowingcountries GNP GDP asapercentageofGDPforselectedcountries 1997 CrosscountrycomparisonofGNP GDP Realvs NominalGDP GDPisthevalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproduced NominalGDPmeasuresthesevaluesusingcurrentprices RealGDPmeasurethesevaluesusingthepricesofabaseyear RealGDPcontrolsforinflation ChangesinnominalGDPcanbedueto ChangesinpricesChangesinquantitiesofoutputproducedChangesinrealGDPcanonlybeduetochangesinquantities BecauserealGDPisconstructedusingconstantbase yearprices Practiceproblem ComputenominalGDPin2002and2003ComputerealGDPineachyearusing2002asthebaseyear Answerstopracticeproblem NominalGDPmultiplyPs Qsfromsameyear2006 2007 RealGDPmultiplyeachyear sQsby2002Ps2006 2007 Soinrealterms GDPdidnotriseasmuchasitwouldseemfromnominalterms U S Real NominalGDP 1967 2001 GDPDeflator Theinflationrateisthepercentageincreaseintheoveralllevelofprices OnemeasureofthepricelevelistheGDPDeflator definedas UnderstandingtheGDPdeflator Examplewith3goodsForgoodi 1 2 3Pit themarketpriceofgoodiinmonthtQit thequantityofgoodiproducedinmonthtNGDPt NominalGDPinmonthtRGDPt RealGDPinmontht UnderstandingtheGDPdeflator TheGDPdeflatorisaweightedaverageofprices Theweightoneachpricereflectsthatgood srelativeimportanceinGDP Notethattheweightschangeovertime Anotherexample GDPfortheRepublicofAntai RepublicofAntaiproducesthreemajorgoods Bachelors MBAs and Ph D s everyyear Theproductionandpricesofthesethreegoodsin2005 2006 and2007areasfollows BachelorsMBAsPh D sQuantityPriceQuantityPriceQuantityPrice2005200 45 000150 95 00020 80 0002006350 50 000300 120 00050 95 0002007500 75 000200 145 00090 99 000FindNominalGDPandRealGDP baseyear2005 foreachyear Calculatetheannualgrowthinrealproductionof Bachelors MBAs and Ph D s overyears CalculatetheannualgrowthinNominalandRealGDP FindtheGDPdeflatorsofAntaiRepublicoveryears Workingwithpercentagechanges EX Ifyourhourlywagerises5 andyouwork7 morehours thenyourwageincomerisesapproximately12 USEFULTRICK 1ForanyvariablesXandY thepercentagechangein X Y thepercentagechangeinX thepercentagechangeinY Workingwithpercentagechanges EX GDPdeflator 100 NGDP RGDP IfNGDPrises9 andRGDPrises4 thentheinflationrateisapproximately5 USEFULTRICK 2thepercentagechangein X Y thepercentagechangeinX thepercentagechangeinY Chain weightedRealGDP Overtime relativepriceschange sothebaseyearshouldbeupdatedperiodically Inessence chain weightedRealGDP updatesthebaseyeareveryyear Thismakeschain weightedGDPmoreaccuratethanconstant priceGDP Butthetwomeasuresarehighlycorrelated andconstant pricerealGDPiseasiertocompute sowe llusuallyuseconstant pricerealGDP GDPandEconomicWell being thebestsinglemeasureoftheeconomicwell beingofasociety GDPperpersontellsustheincomeandexpenditureoftheaveragepersonintheeconomy HigherGDPperpersonindicatesahigherstandardofliving notaperfectmeasureofthehappinessorqualityoflife however GDPandtheQualityofLife GDPandEconomicWell being Somethingsthatcontributetowell beingarenotincludedinGDP Thevalueofleisure Thevalueofacleanenvironment Thevalueofalmostallactivitythattakesplaceoutsideofmarkets suchasthevalueofthetimeparentsspendwiththeirchildrenandthevalueofvolunteerwork ConsumerPriceIndex CPI AmeasureoftheoveralllevelofpricesPublishedbytheBureauofLaborStatistics BLS Usedtotrackchangesinthetypicalhousehold scostoflivingadjustmanycontractsforinflationallowcomparisonsofdollarfiguresfromdifferentyears HowtheBLSconstructstheCPI Surveyconsumerstodeterminecompositionofthetypicalconsumer s basket ofgoods Everymonth collectdataonpricesofallitemsinthebasket computecostofbasketCPIinanymonthequals ThecompositionoftheCPI s basket 食品33 6 烟酒及用品14 4 衣着9 家庭设备及服务6 2 医疗保健及个人用品9 4 交通及通信9 3 娱乐教育文化服务4 5 居住13 6 中国CPI的构成及其权重 郑京平在05年4月国家统计局新闻发布会上公布的资料 上海社会科学院在上海徐汇区进行的一项调查发现 子女教育支出占所有家庭花费的22 41 之间 UnderstandingtheCPI Examplewith3goodsForgoodi 1 2 3Ci theamountofgoodiintheCPI sbasketPit thepriceofgoodiinmonthtEt thecostoftheCPIbasketinmonthtEb costofthebasketinthebaseperiod UnderstandingtheCPI TheCPIisaweightedaverageofprices Theweightoneachpricereflectsthatgood srelativeimportanceintheCPI sbasket Notethattheweightsremainfixedovertime ReasonswhytheCPImayoverstateinflation Substitutionbias TheCPIusesfixedweights soitcannotreflectconsumers abilitytosubstitutetowardgoodswhoserelativepriceshavefallen Introductionofnewgoods Theintroductionofnewgoodsmakesconsumersbetteroffand ineffect increasestherealvalueofthedollar ButitdoesnotreducetheCPI becausetheCPIusesfixedweights Unmeasuredchangesinquality Qualityimprovementsincreasethevalueofthedollar butareoftennotfullymeasured TheCPI sbias TheBoskinPanel s bestestimate TheCPIoverstatesthetrueincreaseinthecostoflivingby1 1 peryear Result theBLShasrefinedthewayitcalculatestheCPItoreducethebias ItisnowbelievedthattheCPI sbiasisslightlylessthan1 peryear CPIvs GDPdeflator pricesofcapitalgoodsincludedinGDPdeflator ifproduceddomestically excludedfromCPIpricesofimportedconsumergoodsincludedinCPIexcludedfromGDPdeflatorthebasketofgoodsCPI fixedGDPdeflator changeseveryyear Twomeasuresofinflation 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 Percentage change 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 Year 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 MeasuringUnemployment Categoriesofthepopulation employedworkingatapaidjobunemployednotemployedbutlookingforajoblaborforcetheamountoflaboravailableforproducinggoodsandservices allemployedplusunemployedpersonsnotinthelaborforcenotemployed notlookingforwork IdentifyingUnemployment Haveyouspentmostofthepreviousweekworkingatapaidjob YES EmployedNO nextquestionAreyouontemporarylayoff lookingforajob orwaitingforthestartdateofanewjob YES UnemployedNO Notinthelaborforce students homemakers retirees Laborforce Employed Unemployed Whoisemployed Anexercise 王宝强works10hoursaschefinalocalrestaurantandattendsnightschoolat安泰 Heprefersafulltimejobthough 周杰伦losthisjobatWal Mart Sincethenhehasbeentryingtofindanotherone 崔永元isanMBAfrom安泰andnowworksfulltimeasdishwasher Hedislikeshisjobandhasappliedforjobswithseveralfirms Hewillquitcurrentjobassoonashegetsanoffer 陈冠希istakingabreakfromhiscurrentjobasmagicianfor10years Hedecidestohaveavocationinthenext24months MeasurementofUnemployment Sourcesofmis measurementofunemploymentrate Frequentmovementsintoandoutofthelaborforce NewcollegegraduatesRetireeschangemindtoworkagain etc Peoplecallingthemselves unemployed toqualifyforgovernmentassistance yetnotactivelytryingtofindwork arecountedasunemployedbutactuallynotinlaborforce Discouragedworkers notcountedinlaborforcebutactuallyinvoluntaryunemployment Twoimportantlaborforceconcepts unemploymentratepercentageofthelaborforcethatisunemployedlaborforceparticipationratethefractionoftheadultpopulationthat participates inthelaborforce Computinglaborforcestatistics U S adultpopulationbygroup April2002Numberemployed 134 0millionNumberunemployed 8 6millionAdultpopulation 213 5m