西方经济学(宏观经济学)论文中英对照.doc

To Spend or to Save? Trick QuestionIts your fault. Part of it is, anyway. You, the American consumer, spent too much money. You bought too much house, took on too much debt and generally lived beyond your means. Your free-spending ways helped cause the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.And now youre going to have to do your part to end the crisis. How? By spending. Enough already with the saving that many of you have suddenly begun doing. This very moment, Congress and President Obama are preparing to send you a tax rebate, to inspire you to stimulate the economy. So go out and stimulate. Spend as if the future of your country depended on it.John Maynard Keynes, the great 20th-century economist, would have appreciated the apparent absurdity in these mixed messages. He coined a phrase, “the paradox of thrift,” to point out that what was rational for an individual during hard times saving money could be ruinous for an entire economy. Eventually, many of the savers may end up out of work because everyone else is saving, too. Its enough to make you wonder what exactly youre supposed to do. At his news conference on Monday night, Mr. Obama was asked directly whether people should spend or save their rebate checks. He ducked the question. Fortunately, though, it has an answer. There are a few ways to help both your own finances and the countrys. The first involves figuring out how to spend money now to save money later which can lift the economy today and help individual households cope with their battered finances in the long run. The second involves realizing that Keyness paradox isnt ironclad. In a financial crisis, when banks may need capital as much as retailers or restaurants need business, many people can save without guilt. What follows is a guide to spending and saving, both sensibly and patriotically. Besides developing the most famous prescription for curing downturns, Keynes can also be considered the godfather of behavioral economics, as the columnist David Ignatius recently wrote. While other economists obsessed over statistical models that treated people as hyperrational automatons, Keynes wrote about “animal spirits.” He helped explain how psychology shaped economics.Psychology-tinged economics that is, behavioral economics has taken off over the last two decades, and one of its central findings is that most people do not do a good job of planning for the future. They arent nearly as nice to their “future self,” as economists say, as to their “present self.”They eat just one more doughnut and put off exercising until tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow. They fail to set aside enough for retirement. Again and again, they choose a bird in the hand be it dessert, convenience or a little extra cash over three or four in the bush. These habits end up causing a lot of trouble. But they also present an opportunity in a time like this. Most people could save themselves a good bit of money by giving proper respect to their future self. They could spend a little now and save a lot later.McKinsey & Company recently analyzed household spending on energy, for example, and found enormous waste. People heat their homes when they are not there and, thanks to leaks in their walls and heating ducts, also heat the airspace above their roof.A programmable thermostat, which adjusts the temperature when people are out of the house or asleep, can cost as little as $50. For less than $1,000, people can buy the thermostat, as well as hire a contractor to fix leaks and replace their light bulbs with more efficient ones. In either case, the spending often pays for itself in just a year or two.“There is a difference between consuming and investing,” says Ken Ostrowski of McKinsey. “And energy efficiency falls more into the category of investing.”I asked behavioral economists for some other examples, and they helped me come up with a nice little list. Parents of young children can join Costco and make up their membership fee with just a few months of diaper purchases. Drivers can inflate their tires, change their air and fuel filters and start getting better mileage. Frequent book buyers who dont mind screen reading can buy the new Kindle. It costs $359, but most new books then cost less than $10. Families who shop at rent-to-own stores, which charge ridiculous interest rates, can temporarily pare back and then buy furniture or electronics outright. People who do a lot of laser printing can purchase a printer that uses only a cent or two of ink per page. (Many use far, far more.) Purified water drinkers can lay off the Aquafina and buy a water filter. Seltzer drinkers can buy a seltzer maker. My wife and I now have one, and it is a beautiful thing indeed. In these cases and, no doubt, many others the initial investment tends to pay off quickly, sometimes in mere months. Thats why such spending is perfectly suited to the moment. It will keep people employed or create new jobs when the economy needs the help. But it will also shore up households finances. The one big caveat is that some people will feel that they cant afford to lay out an extra $50 or $100 right now. Millions of workers have already lost their jobs, and many others simply want to cut back. In December, households saved an average of 3.6 percent of their disposable income, up from about 1 percent in recent years.In a normal recession, this new saving would have a lot more downside than upside, just as Keynes explained. But this recession is different. It has been caused by a financial crisis. If Americans dont get their finances in better shape if mortgage defaults keep rising and credit card delinquencies soar banks will remain afraid to lend, and the recession will linger. Even more immediately, banks need to get their own finances in order. Thats the whole aim of the new bailout plan announced by the Treasury Department on Tuesday. Some additional personal savings can only help that effort. “The government is pouring hundreds of billion of dollars into banks,” said Richard Thaler, a University of Chicago economist. “Whats so bad about households pouring some money into banks?”The ideas here dont apply only to individuals, either. They apply to the stimulus package as well. The federal government is set to spend $800 billion to stimulate the economy. Much of that money will necessarily go to tax rebates, unemployment benefits and other programs without much long-term benefit. But $800 billion is a lot of money. And the best forms of stimulus are the ones that take effect quickly and bring a long-term payoff. That can mean tax credits for home weatherization or money to pay for the installation of computerized medical records two programs that are still in the stimulus bill. Whenever this recession finally ends, our future selves are going to be facing some very big bills. They can use all the help we can give them.花钱还是存钱？难解的问题。是你的错。至少部分是。你美国消费者花了过多的钱。你买了太大的房子、借了太多的债、花钱超过收入。你的消费无度助长了这次大萧条以来最严重的金融危机。你现在不得不有所作为、结束这次危机。怎么做？通过消费。多多消费你们突然开始储蓄的钱。这个时刻，国会和奥巴马总统正准备给你们减税，鼓励你们刺激经济。那么，出去刺激吧。就像国家的未来取决于此那样去花钱。约翰.梅纳德.凯恩斯，二十世纪伟大的经济学家，意识到了在这些混杂消息中传递出的谬论。他创造了一个词“节约的悖论”，指出在经济困难时期，个体的理智行为（存钱）可能对整体经济是有害的。最终，大量的存钱者会失业，因为其他人也在存钱。到底该怎么做，的确让人左右为难。在周一的记者会上，奥巴马被问道用减税支票该消费还是储蓄时，他没有正面回答。幸运的是，有答案。有一些方法既有利于你的财务也有助于国家。首先，找出现在如何花钱才有利于将来省钱的方法既可以支撑现在的经济，也能从长期帮助人们应付倍受打击的财务状况。其次，要知道凯恩斯悖论也非无懈可击。在金融危机中，当银行需要资金如同零售店和餐馆需要顾客那样迫切的时候，人们就可以无忧地去储蓄了。下面是既聪明又爱国的有关消费和储蓄的指导。除了开出著名的医治萧条的药方，凯恩斯还被认为是行为经济学的教父。当其他经济学家纠缠于把人当做超理性机器的统计学模型时，凯恩斯提出了“活力”的概念。他解释了心理如何影响经济。带有心理学色彩的经济学（即行为经济学）在二十年间取得了很大进展，它的一个主要发现是：大多数人不能很好的计划未来。他们对自己的未来远不如对现在那么关心。他们会多吃一个炸面圈，却把锻炼推到明天再明天。他们不能为退休攒足够的钱。他们选择已经在手的（不管是甜点、便利或者额外的一点现金）而不是更多还没有得到的东西。只顾眼前的习惯导致无数问题。但是在目前这种时刻，它们也会带来机会。通过为未来打算，人们眼下就能省不少的钱。现在投入一点，将来可能收获许多。麦肯锡公司最近分析了家庭在能源上的花费，发现了很多浪费。人们外出时还在为屋子供暖，由于墙壁和热力管线的散热，他们也加热了屋顶上的空间。程控调温器最少只卖$50，它可以在主人不在或睡觉的时候调节温度。花费不到1000块钱，人们就可以购买程控调温器，包括雇一个合同工修复热力泄露，以及把