Then and Now.doc

中国房价趋势是社会情势所使然Trend of real estate prices in China: the result of the social circumstances 目前中国房价的态势：正在走下行通道Real estate prices in China：heading downward 谢国忠谈房价，称泡沫已破Andy Xie ： Chinas property bubble burst2012年房价将进入第二波下跌2012 will see second wave of decline in asset prices2012 will see the second dip looming in asset prices Then and NowHarold NicolsonDuring the 25 years which have intervened between the First and Second German Wars that is, between the night of 4 August 19141 and the morning of Sunday, 3 September 19392 I have often asked my friends to tell me in what way, and in what manner, they first became aware that Great Britain was at war. There had, on each occasion, been a preliminary stage during which war seemed to become every hour more inevitable; on each occasion, there had been announcements in the newspapers and speeches in the House of Commons; but what interested me particularly was to hear stories of the actual moment at which any given individual became conscious that we had passed from the sunlight of peace into the night of war. I think that it will be of interest to every one of us hereafter, whether we keep a diary or not, to note down upon a sheet of paper the actual circumstance which made him or her realize that this terrific episode3 had begun, and to record the exact time and hour when he or she experienced that circumstance.彼时，此时第一次英德战争到第二次英德战争爆发的25年里即，从1914年8月4日晚到1939年9月3日的周日早上这段时间我常问朋友们他们是以何种途径、方式最先觉察到英国在参战。每一次，都有一个准备阶段，此时战争似乎每时每刻变得越来越不可避免，每一次，在下议院中各种报纸和演讲中总会公告不断。但是使我特别感兴趣的还是听真正时刻到来时的报道，任何特定人士开始清醒地意识到我们已经失去了和平的阳光进入战争之夜。我想从今以后，无论我们是否有记日记的习惯，对我们所有人而言，如果能记下使他或她意识到这恐怖的事件已经开始的真实情况，并记录下他或她经历事件时的确切时间都会非常有意思。Diplomatic documents, however dramatically exchanged, do not constitute ocular evidence that war has begun. Street demonstrations and press notices are mass experiences and not individual. It interests me to ascertain what personal experience was the first to convince any given citizen that we had, in fact, placed ourselves upon a war basis.无论外交文件怎样戏剧性地交换，其中也未包含亲眼目睹到的开战证据。街头游行示威与新闻通告为集体行为，而非三三两两的个人经历。是什么样的个人经历首先使任何特定人士相信其实我们已经置身于战乱之中了，我很有兴趣确定这个问题。In August 1914, I made a careful note of my own experiences in this respect. The first sign of war that I observed occurred when I was in a train coming up from Kent to London. Somewhere in Lewisham,5 there had long been established some Territorial battery6 which housed a gun in a shed close to the railway line. There was a patch of grass in front of this shed, and, as the train passed close to it, I noticed that the grass had been churned up by heavy wheels. I realised that the gun had, earlier that morning, been taken out of its shed. That was the first ocular demonstration of military action. When I reached London, I passed an army lorry in Belgrave Square7 packed with little ordnance maps.8 That was my second piece of evidence. And, within a few short hours, the evidences accumulated so rapidly that they made no further impress on my mind.1914年8月，我在这方面认真地对自己的经历做了记录。在从肯特到伦敦的火车上，我观察到了战争的最初征兆。在路易斯的某个地方，长期以来在靠近铁道的一间炮舍里，地方炮兵连一直存放着一门大炮。在炮舍前有一块草地，火车穿行靠近此地时，我注意到草皮被重重的车轮碾得都翻了起来。我明白早在这个清晨之前，那门炮已经被运送了出去。那是我亲眼看到的第一条军事行动证据。抵达伦敦时，在贝尔格雷夫广场我经过一个载满小型军械署地图的军用卡车。那是我的第二条证据。仅仅在几个小时内，证据接踵而至，我再也无暇顾及了。This time, my experience was far more dramatic. It was one which was shared by many of my fellow countrymen. Only a few minutes after listening to the prime ministers broadcast address on Sunday9 I walked down with one or two friends to my place of business; and, while I was walking through the streets, the sirens warbled around us. I was only a very little distance from a place in which, I knew, I should both find refuge and be able to fulfill my functions. The question arose whether, as a most obedient citizen, I should seek refuge immediately in the nearest basement or refuge, or whether, as a conscientious worker, I should defy regulations and make for my place of business. On consideration, I decided that my own air-raid refuge would be preferable. My duty as a worker triumphed for this reason over my civic conscience and, with hurried although not, I trust, undignified steps, I escaped across Parliament Square.这一次，我的经历更是惊心动魄。许多国人都由此同感。周日，听完首相的广播演讲仅几分钟后，我与一两个朋友同行前往我办公的地方。穿过街道的时候，警报声在我们周围突然响了起来。我距办公地近在咫尺，我知道在这个地方我应该既能躲避危险，又可履行我的职责。问题是，作为一个最顺从的公民，我是否应该在最近的地下室或者避难处立即避难，或者说，作为一个尽责的工作者，我是否应该无视指令，继续前往办公地。稍加思考后，我确定自己的空袭避难所是更好的选择。因此，我作为一名工作者的职责战胜了公民的服从。而后我迈着急匆匆（但是我相信）并未有失尊严的步子穿过国会广场离开了。That, I think, will for all of us remain the great difference between 1914 and 1939. The First German War was made manifest to me by seeing some grass trampled by the wheels of a Territorial gun; the Second German War intruded itself upon my consciousness owing to the necessity of my having to seek shelter rapidly some 30 minutes after war had been declared. It is essentially a difference between gradualness and urgency. We lolled and slouched into the First German War; the Second has found us infinitely more prepared.从1914年到1939年这段时间，我想那对我们所有人来说都有着天壤之别。目睹被地方炮兵连那门炮的轮子践踏过的草地, 我证实了第一次英德战争；而宣战30分钟后，我必须迅速找到掩蔽处，这一必要性让我意识到了第二次英德战争的来临。从根本上说，这是缓慢与紧急的差别。我们慢腾腾地踱进第一次英德战争，第二次到来时我们则严阵以待。There are other differences. In 1914, no visible change was at first apparent in the appearance of London. Huge crowds collected everywhere, the men arrayed in straw boaters (a most foolish form of headgear) and the women wearing hats which would now strike us as ungainly, but which, at the time, seemed elegant. At night-time, the streets shone with their wonted brilliance, and the theatres and restaurants were crowded. Newsboys rushed along the streets shouting out wholly incorrect information, to the effect that the Germans had suffered serious defeats at Namur11 or Liege12 and that their advance into Belgium had met with overwhelming failure. Everybody was delighted by these occurrences, and a spirit of excited optimism throbbed through every street. It was only gradually, month by month, that reality of war percolated throughout the country. There were the earlier air raids; the gradual increase in the submarine menace; the darkening of the streets13 and the imposition of food regulations.14 Heaven knows what time, and what lives, were sacrificed to these dawdling methods. The cry was business as usual. It was only after two years that the public understood that war was a grim business which allowed small room for individual self-indulgence or even individual profit-making.不同之处不一而足。1914年，起初伦敦表面上并无明显的变化。到处都是熙熙攘攘的人群，男人都戴着硬草帽（一种非常傻冒的帽子），女人戴的帽子现在看来奇丑无比，但那时却很雅致。到夜晚时分，街道辉煌灿烂，剧院和餐厅里的人挤得水泄不通。报童们沿街叫卖，叫喊着毫不准确的消息，大意是德国已经在那慕尔或列日连续遭到重创，在向比利时进发时被打得溃不成军。听到这些战况，人人抑制不住地兴高采烈，每条街上都涌动着一股激动的乐观情绪。战争的实际情况是逐月扩散、日渐传遍整个国家的。早先的空袭，日甚一日的潜艇威胁，黑沉沉的街道，强制实行的食品定量供给规定。天知道为这些缓慢延宕的办法葬送了多少光阴和生命。到处都是一切照常的呼声。两年后公众才明白了战争是一件严酷的事情，容不得个人的自我放纵，甚至牟利个人私利。Today, war conditions have come upon us not by slow stages as old age comes upon us, but with the sudden swoop of some terrific illness. In a few hours, the streets of London ceased to resemble Broadway15 in New York and became dark canyons16 in which dim figures crept from pavement to pavement. During the last war, and even in its final stages, the lights were dimmed, but not extinguished. In this war, our city is so dark that a match lit in Kingsway17 flames like some beacon, or some rickfire, down the Strand.18 I find London in such new conditions immensely beautiful. The darkness hides all that is ugliest in our London architecture and brings out all that is most beautiful. St. Martin-in-the-Fields19 glimmers with the moon and the clouds above it as in some Hogarth20 print. The Charing Cross21 Hotel is, fortunately, shrouded in darkness. London triumphantly and sadly abandons its imitation of New York and assumes a stately 17th-century aspect; the small electric torch jigging at the edges of the pavement replaces the smoking brands which used to be carried by the linkboys.22如今，我们迎接战况并非像步入老年一样缓慢，而是有一种重病突袭之感。几个小时之内，伦敦的街道不再似纽约的百老汇，而成了黑黢黢的峡谷，模糊的人影从一条人行道轻悄悄溜到另一条人行道。在最后一次战争期间，甚至在其最后阶段，所有的灯火虽然微弱而昏暗，但也并未熄灭。在这场战争中，我们的城市非常黑暗，在京士威道燃一根火柴，它的光在斯特兰德街的另一头看起来像烽火，又像干草堆的火焰。我发现伦敦在这样一种新状况下竟会美不胜收。黑暗隐藏了的伦敦建筑中最丑陋的东西，却把最美的一切凸显了出来。原野圣马丁教堂与在其上方的月亮、云朵一起泛着微光，宛如霍迦斯作品中的图景。可喜的是，查令十字街旅店也笼罩在黑暗中。伦敦摆脱了对纽约的模仿，呈现出一派十七世纪时的庄严面貌，既值得欢欣鼓舞又令人感到悲哀；在人行道边沿摇晃的手电筒代替了过去由执火把的人举着的冒烟火炬。I notice also a difference in the general state of mind. The rather ghastly jollity of 1914 is not apparent in the streets of London these days. People pass each other soberly and seriously. We know that our task is a tremendous task and that there is no room for frivolity. In 1914, many of us younger people imagined that the war would be some rollicking adventure. Today, we all realise, whatever our age, that it will prove the grimmest of ordeals, and, what is more, every man and woman today realises that he or she is personally involved from the start.我还注意到了人们心态上的一处不同。这些日子里，在伦敦的街道上看不到1914年那样的欢腾热闹。/1914年那样的欢腾热闹在伦敦的街道上消失殆尽。人们经过对方时，表情严肃而冷峻。我们甚至责任重大且不容轻率。1914年，我们很多年轻人想象着战争不过是欢闹的探险经历。现在，无论老少，都意识到了这将是最艰苦卓的磨难，更重要的是，不论男女，每个人如今都意识到了自己从一开始就不是局外人/不会置身事外。Yet, in 1914, behind all this excitement and hysteria, there existed a certain doubt as to what the war was all about. What did it matter to us whether an Austrian archduke had been murdered in some obscure Balkan city?23 Why was it that the Germans had suddenly invaded Belgium? Thus, under the surface hilarity of 1914, there were many doubts as to the real nature of our cause, and the real necessity for our intervention. Those doubts do not exist today. True it is that the surface of the stream does not today bubble with the effervescence which showed itself in the early days of August 1914. But the current underneath is deeper, stronger and more uniform. We know very well that the issue is not whether Danzig should or should not be incorporated in the German Reich.24 We know profoundly and widely that the real issue is whether a theory and a system which denies all Christian and all human doctrine is to dominate the continent of Europe. We are not fighting Hitler because of his rights or aspirations; we are fighting him because of his point of view.然后，在1914年，在一切激动兴奋与歇斯底里的背后，我们开始疑惑这场战争到底因何而起。奥地利大公爵在巴尔干某个不知名的城市被谋杀于我们何干？为什么德国突然侵略比利时？所以，在1914年表面的狂欢下，我们对于这场战争的本质以及我们进行干预的必要性疑窦丛生。而现在这些疑问并不存在。这股激流的表面在今天并未翻腾起1914年八月早些天时显现出来的泡沫，事实确实如此。但是这狂流的下面却更幽深、更激荡、也更统一。我们很清楚问题并不在于但泽应不应该纳入德意志帝国的统治，我们深知真正的问题是一个否定了所有基督教义与全人类信条的理论与体系是否应该统治欧洲大陆。我们不会因为希特勒的权利或野心就与其斗争，我们反对他是因为不能认同他的观点。I have lived many years in Germany. I have found among the Germans many virtues and a delightful form of companionship. If I have one accusation to make against them it is that they lack civic courage. They accept from their government things which they would not accept from any individual. They allow their government to lie to them, to bully them, and now to drive them quite shamelessly into a Second German War. I believe that many people in this country share these views. They like the Germans even as I like them, but they have a contempt for the way in which they allow their governments to represent and to exploit what is worst in themselves instead of what is best. I well know that my many German friends hate the present war even as we hate it. I well know that at the time of the persecution of the Jews many of the most patriotic Germans felt ashamed of their own country. But they did nothing about it. No government in England could possibly have remained in power had they behaved with equal cruelty or untruthfulness. Yet the Germans, while aware of these iniquities and while regretting them, had not the civic courage to insist upon a change of method.我在德国旅居多年，发觉德国人身上有许多优点，与他们相处也很愉快。如果非要予以指责的话，那就是他们缺乏公民勇气。他们不听从任何人却甘于接受政府施予的一切。他们听任政府对其撒谎，加以欺凌，如今又寡廉鲜耻地将他们再次推入英德战争。我认为许多国人都会认同这些观点。他们和我一样喜欢德国人，但是他们憎恶德国人竟应允政府代表且利用了他们自身最糟糕的东西而不是精华部分。我深知许多德国朋友像我们一样憎恨眼前这场战争，我也深知在迫害犹太人的时候，许多德国的爱国人士为自己的国家感到羞耻，但是他们却对此无所作为。如若英国某届政府像德国那般残暴与虚假，它不可能再继续执掌政权。尽管德国人意识到可这些倒行逆施，但他们在痛惜之余，也未曾拿出公民勇气来谋求改弦易辙。Thus I see two differences between the spirit which now animates this country and that which animated it in 1914. At the outset of the First German War we were not all of us fully aware to what extent the conflict was a conflict of principle. Today, every single person realises that it is a conflict of principle and nothing else. Let us not be too self-righteous. Let us try to understand the German accusation that, since 1918, we did not behave with sufficient imagination, generosity and unselfishness.25 But even when one admits this, one must agree that the German system of violence, cruelty, ruthlessness and unfaithfulness must, if there be any reality in human ideals, be a wicked and an evil system.所以，在鼓舞激励该国的精神上，我在当前激励我们国家的这种与1914年那种上看到了两处不同。在第一次英德战争的开始，并非人人都充分意识到可这场冲突在某种程度上是原则冲突。现在，每个人都意识到这是原则之争而非他物。我们切不可以太自以为是。让我们尽可能理解德国人的指责，他们认为自从1918年，我们就在行动上缺乏想象力，不够慷慨大方也没有无私精神。但是即使有人承认这一点，他也必须同意，如果人类理想中还有天理存在，那么充斥着暴力、残酷、无情和虚假的德国体系一定是一个邪恶而罪恶的体系。The second difference, as I think and hope, is this. In 1914, we did not make any distinction between the German people and their government. As the war increased in asperity and ruthlessness many civilians succumbed to feelings of hatred. This was not true of the men in the trenches. But we were suspicious of, and terribly unkind to, many innocent and friendly people who were either of German origin or who were suspected of being what we called pro-Germans. I hope we shall not commit that wanton cruelty this time. I hope that we shall, all of us, recognise what great virtues the German race possesses; that we shall never forget their contributions to science, literature, philosophy and music; and that we shall force ourselves, however angry we may feel against them, to believe that they are men and women, if not like ourselves (since I regard the Germans as completely different from ourselves), then at least men and women who are capable of high human feelings. But, while we think that, let us not blunt the edge of our resolution by finding excuses for the little group of adventurers26 who have seized the soul of Germany and strangled it in their ugly hands.正如我所认为与期盼的那样，第二个不同之处是这样的。在1914年，我们对德国人和其政府不加以区别对待。随着战争愈加残酷，许多民众生出了憎恶之情。在战场上的人却无此想法。但是我们对许多无辜而友好的人却态度恶劣，心怀疑虑，这些人不过是有德国血统或被我们怀疑为所谓的“亲德”人士。我希望这次我们不会再对其心存敌意、残忍待之。我希望我们所有人都能认识到德国这个民族人民拥有优良的美德，我也希望他们在科学、文学、哲学及音乐上做出的贡献会永远铭记在我们心里，无论我们对他们感到如何的义愤填膺，我们都要迫使自己去相信，虽然他们不像我们（因为我认为德国人与我们全然不同），但他们是人，至少是有着崇高人类感情的人。但是，有小部分的冒险家攫住德国的灵魂，并将其扼死在他们邪恶的股掌之中，我们那样想的时候，不要因为这些人开脱罪责而使我们的决心之刀刃变钝。This, therefore, is the difference between then and now. Outwardly, a great change in the speed of war-preparation, and a feeling that things which took years to establish in the last war are now being established overnight. Inwardly, in the place of excitement and frivolity, a stoic resolve, coupled with the feeling that, if we are, in truth, on the side of great virtues as against mean vices, we must not allow mean vices to creep into our own conduct. We must be27 generous and Christian in our contacts28 with the unfortunate exiles in our midst. War is the supreme test of national character: let us keep our national character unsullied to the end.所以，这即是这个那个时候与现在的区别。表面上，是在备战速度上发生了巨大变化，而且还有这样一种感觉在一战中历经几年才得以建立的东西，现在一夜之间就形成了。从内在而言，兴奋与轻浮不再，一种坚韧的决心取而代之，并伴随着这样一种想法，即，事实上，如果我们坚守伟大的德行反对卑劣的恶行，我们一定不会让那些恶劣行径侵蚀我们自己的行为。在对待自己流落他国的不幸时我们一定要宽宏大量，有基督教义精神。战争是对我们国民品质的最强大的考验：让我们的国民品质在最后还能纤尘不染。 From The Listener, 18, Jan. 1979About the AuthorSir Harold Nicolson (The Hon. Harold George Nicolson, 1886 1968; knighted 1953) was a British diplomat and writer. He served on the British delegation to the Paris Peace Conference in 1919, worked in British embassies or legations in Madrid, Constantinople, Teheran and Berlin until 1929 and was national Labour M.P. for West Leicester 1935 45. He was the author of literary studies, biographies and several books of essays. The present text was a broadcast talk he gave on 14 September, 1939.Notes and Commentary1. August 1914 The day on which Britain declared war on Germany.2. September 1939 The day on which Britain once again declared war on Germany.3. this terrific episode The war.4. Kent A county in S.E. England.5. Lewisham A borough in Greater London.6. Territorial battery A battery of the Territorial Force (British), a voluntary military force on a territorial basis, formed in 1908, changed in 1920 into Territorial Army, and in 1967 into Territorial and Army Volunteer Service. A battery is an army unit of big guns with men and vehicles.7. Belgrave Square A square in the West End of London and a fashionable residential area, now the home of many embassies.8. Ordnance maps Accurate and detailed maps of Great Britain and Ireland prepared by the Ordnance Survey Department of Ministry of Housing and Local Government. They are so detailed that even footpaths are shown.9. Only a few minutes after listening to the prime ministers broadcast address on Sunday At 11.15 a.m. on Sunday, 3 September 1939, the prime minister, Neville Chamberlain, informed the British people that Britain was at war. Minutes afterwards, there was an air-raid warning and Britons had to seek refuge in air-raid shelters or basements.10. Parliament Square This is where the Houses of Parliament are situated on the bank of the Thames near Westminster Bridge.11. Namur A French-speaking province of S W Belgium.12. Liege A province in E. Belgium in the Meuse Valley and the Ardennes.13. the darkening of the streets Street lights in London were darkened but never extinguished during World War I.14. the imposition of food regulations This refers to the rationing of food.15. Broadway A street in New York City famous for its theatres and always brightly lit at night.16. became dark canyons Street lights in London were extinguished during World Was II so that enemy planes would find it hard to locate their targets.17. Kingsway A street in London joining Oxford Street and Hig