外汇储备论文：我国外汇储备适度规模研究.doc

外汇储备论文：我国外汇储备适度规模研究【中文摘要】1997年的亚洲金融危机使各国都切实认识到外汇储备的重要性。近些年来随着我国经济的发展和汇率制度的改革,我国外汇储备总量迅猛增长,但是外汇储备并非越多越好,一国的外汇储备应该保持适度的规模,与该国的经济发展水平相适应。本文在介绍了选题背景和国内外学者在外汇储备规模问题上的相关研究基础之上,首先对我国的外汇储备进行了描述性分析,包括:我国外汇储备历年增长概况、外汇储备持续增长的原因以及当前大规模的外汇储备带来的正面与负面影响。接着本文以经典的阿格沃尔模型为基础对我国19912010年外汇储备适度规模问题进行实证研究,得出结论:19912001年我国外汇储备不足;20022003年外汇储备适度;从2004年起,我国外汇储备总量开始超过适度外汇储备量,而且实际量与适度量之间的差距越来越大。而这一时期也正是我国外汇储备高速增长的阶段。在实证部分本文还以特里芬的比例分析法为基础,尝试建立外汇储备规模预警模型,以期对我国外汇储备积极管理带来帮助和指导。最后针对目前过量的外汇储备本文提出了外汇储备规模管理的两方面内容:降低外汇储备增长速度和外汇储备资产的运用,以及各自相应的对策。【英文摘要】The 1997 financial crisis have made each country in the world realized the importance of foreign exchange reserve. In recent years, with the growth of our countrys economic and the reform of exchange rate regime, the total amount of foreign exchange reserve of our country is soaring rapidly. However, the concept of the more, the better doesnt apply to reserve. A countrys foreign exchange reserve should keep a proper scale should be in a due proportion with the countrys economic level.On the basis of background introduction and some relevant research on the scale of foreign exchange reserve made by scholars from home and abroad, at the beginning the paper has made a descriptive analysis on the reserve of our country, including the general growth situation, the causes of continuous development and both the positive and negative effects brought by the extremely large scale of the reserve.The paper then makes an empirical research on the scale of the reserve of our country from 1991 to 2010 by making use of Agarwal model and factor analysis and comes to conclusions: The reserve in 1991 to 2001 was inadequate, moderate in 2002 to 2003; the reserve began to overrun since 2004 and the gap between the real and the moderate became bigger and bigger. It is in this period that the reserve of our country had experienced a rapid growth. In empirical research, the paper, based on Triffins proportion analysis, attempts to establish an alert model of foreign exchange reserve in a hope to bring some help and guide to the positive management of our countrys exchange reserve.Finally, this paper aiming at the excess reserves in Chinas foreign exchange reserves put forward two aspects of management content and corresponding countermeasures.【关键词】外汇储备 阿格沃尔模型 适度规模 预警模型【备注】索购全文在线加好友：1.3.9.9.3.8848 同时提供论文写作一对一指导和论文发表委托服务【英文关键词】ForeignExchange Reserve Agarwal model Optimal Scale alert model【目录】我国外汇储备适度规模研究中文摘要4-5Abstract5第一章 绪论8-231.1 本文研究的背景与意义8-91.2 相关理论与文献综述9-201.2.1 外汇储备相关理论基础9-101.2.2 国外相关文献综述10-161.2.3 国内相关文献综述16-201.3 本文的研究思路、方法与论文基本框架20-211.3.1 研究思路201.3.2 研究方法与论文基本框架20-211.4 本文的创新与不足21-23第二章 我国外汇储备的概况23-332.1 我国外汇储备历年增长概况23-262.2 外汇储备持续增长的原因26-302.2.1 持有高额外汇储备的国际原因26-282.2.2 我国高额外汇储备形成的国内原因28-302.3 我国外汇储备规模过大的影响分析30-332.3.1 正面影响30-312.3.2 负面影响31-33第三章 我国外汇储备适度规模的实证分析33-513.1 阿格沃尔模型及其适用性和局限性33-353.1.1 阿格沃尔模型介绍33-343.1.2 阿格沃尔模型的适用性34-353.1.3 阿格沃尔模型的局限性353.2 阿格沃尔模型的修正及应用35-423.2.1 修正的阿格沃尔模型的建立35-363.2.2 修正的阿格沃尔模型的应用36-423.3 外汇储备预