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ResearchonPromotionofCableforUndergroundApplication II MadeforICA China Aug 2002Projectno 02INICAS012 034 007 1 Content 总目录 I Background 5 11 II ExecutiveSummary 12 23 III AcceptableInvestmentQuantityForPowerSupplyBureau 24 27 IV Differentmodelsoffund risinginundergroundcablingconstruction 28 65 V Twoconstructionmodeltobefocused Separationfromtunnelandcable Tunnelrenting 66 70 VI MarketStrategyAnalysisi 70 73 2 Partone projectbackground BackgroundReviewofResearchPhaseIObjectiveandMethodofResearchPhaseII 第六部分 3 Background Ashighqualityconductor copperalwaysperformsaveryimportantroleincablefield Inrecentyears coppercableoccupies90 inthenew constructedundergroundcablebyChina surbanpowersupplybureauMeanwhile overheadlineisstillthemajorpartinurbanpowersupplyinglines undergroundcabletakesonly10 ofit ItisnodoubtthattoacceleratethetheurbanundergroundcablingbringshugepotentialforcopperconsumptionICA China attacheshighimportanceonthethecopperpotentialfromundergroundcablingandtheeffectivewaytoaccessit SINOTRUSTwasentrustedtodomarketresearchonittobuildICA smarketstrategyTworesearchphasewasconductedbySINOTRUST in2001and2002separately PhaseI feasibilitytopushundergroundcabling copperpotential design makingchain keyfactors targetmarketPhaseII Effectivewaytopushtheundergroundcabling marketstrategyintargetmarket 4 Researchresultsretrospectofthefirststage 2001 ResearchgoalResearchapproachMainconclusion 5 Researchgoalofthefirststage 2001 FeasibilityofpushingtheundergroundcablingSituation featureofundergroundcablingDecisionchainanddecisionfactorpushingtheundergroundcablingCopperpotentialTargetmarket 6 Researchapproachofthefirststage 2001 ProjectEvaluation Deskresearch Expertsfocusgroup ForecastofundergroundcablinginChinaKeyfactorsandeffectivepushingmethod Undergroundcablingconstructionsurvey In depthinterviewon6keycities Telephonesurveyon24cities ThecurrentsituationofChina surbanconstructionofcable thetypicalcasesofinfluencefactor decision makingmechanism characteristicdifference cableconstruction Conditionandcoverageofundergroundcablingintargetcities Responds chiefofpowersupplybureauandplanningcommitteeTargetingArea shenzhen qingdao zhuhai tianjin wuhan xi an chengdu nanjing Responds chiefoftechniqueandoperatingdepartmentinlocalpowersupplybureaus Expertsattended StatePowerGroupBeijingUrbanConstructionGroupStateAcademyPowerScienceAssociationofChinaPowerEnterprisesBeijingCityConstructionPlanningInstituteBeijingPowerSupplyBureauPlanning DesigningInstituteofConstructionMinistry 7 Theperfectopportunitytopush推动电缆入地存在良好的市场机遇中国城市化率突破30 进入城市化加速发展时期在供电方式的选择上 中国的城市政府普遍倾向于电缆供电 关注市容市貌个别城市已经形成了较好的电缆入地建设解决办法 为电缆供电的的规模推广提供了实践 多数城市电缆化水平仅有10 20 电缆入地的潜在需求很大 由此带来的电缆用铜潜力非常可观按照目前城市发布的2001 2010年道路建设计划 城市需要铺设的电缆量非常可观 多数大中城市的市区电缆化率计划在70 80 而目前的实际水平是10 20 2002 2006期间 如果所关注的20个重点城市能够实现架空线入地计划 电缆用铜的消费潜力将达到239 040吨根据城市需要改造的架空线的规模 建设的实力等因素 20个大中城市被选择为适宜优先推广架空线入地的地方 上海 北京 长春 昆明 武汉 厦门 青岛 成都 郑州 哈尔滨 齐齐哈尔 沈阳 大连 杭州 兰州 西安 南京 温州 烟台 宁波 第一阶段 2001 主要研究结论 1 8 目前城市电缆供电的应用比例还很低 电缆化率同需要的水平之间差距很大 主要的原因是由于供电企业和地方政府在出资问题上存在意见分歧供电部门是电缆入地的实际建设者 为了节省成本他们倾向于使用架空线 不愿意独自负担全部的电缆建设成本地方政府的规划部门是电缆供电的积极支持者和倡导者 但是他们认为电力电缆不属于基础设施 因而不必由政府负担全部建设费用 电缆建设与城市的道路规划建设结合在一起 城市的道路建设管理部门是推动电缆入地的决策部分目前城市规划与电力部门均没有系统的电缆建设规划 电缆入地是作为道路配套设施的内容之一 以单个项目的方式进行 第一阶段 2001 主要研究结论 2 9 研究发现 城市的土地储备制度水平对于电缆入地建设有支持作用 电缆入地建设较好的先进城市 其土地储备也比较发达土地储备为城市提供了建设资金来源 电缆建设水平高的城市 多数是由于土地储备提供了部分或者全部电缆建设的费用目前 超过1 3的城市开始实行土地储备和拍卖制度 可以预期未来电缆建设会得到更多的资金支持 筹资办法是决定电缆入地水平最关键的因素 目前 已经形成了以青岛的 管线分离 方式和深圳市的 熟地 方式为代表的两种出资方式城市政府和供电局对于电缆供电的优越性有一致的认识 分歧在于是否应该由供电局负担全部建设费用资金来源是电缆建设的核心问题 寻找到适当的筹资方式就解决了架空线入地的难题目前 架空线入地比较成功的做法有 青岛市 管线分离 方式 深圳市 熟地 方式 第一阶段 2001 主要研究结论 3 10 Researchbackgroundatthesecondstage 2002 ResearchgoalResearchcontentResearchapproach 11 Researchgoalandresearchcontentsofsecondstage 2002 Researchgoal Probeintodifferentschemeswhichsolvethekeyfund raisingproblemonthebasisofstudyingin2001 confirmthetargetmarketduring2003 2006 makethecorrespondingpopularizationtactics Researchcontents Thepowersupplyenterprise totheunderstandingprovidingfundsandproportionofsharinglikedtoacceptResearchdifferentraisingfundsmodeoftypicalcityFund raisingmodeofconstructionofcablethatmeritattentionandpopularizedTargetmarketresearch beijing shanghaiWithcopperpotentiality tacticsofadvancing 12 Researchapproachofthesecondstage 2002 Thepowersupplyenterprisepaysthewilltoinvestigate Studytheconstructioninvestmentwayofthecableandinvestmentwaywhichthepowersupplyenterprisecanacceptatpresentineachcity Investigationmethod TelephonepollResponds chiefoftechniqueandoperatingdepartmentinlocalpowersupplybureausSampleamount 24cities Typicalurbansurveyofthemodethatdifferenttoraisefunds Studytheplusesandminusesofmodeofraisingfundsdifferently fund raisingchoosingtobeworthpopularizingandbuildingexperience Investigationmethod depthinterviewResponds Urbanplanningbureau powersupplybureau roadbuildsmanagementorganizationandoverheadwireandentersthemanagementorganizationofgroundSampleamount 6cities Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Dalian Shenyang Shenzhen 13 Researchapproachofthesecondstage 2002 Thepolicysupportofthepowersupplyofcableisstudied StudythepowersupplyofcableinthefeasibilitywhichobtainsthepolicysupportandwaytocooperatewithgovernmentInvestigationmethod depthinterviewResponds Relevantstateorgan MinistryofConstruction MinistryofLandandNaturalResources Localgovernmentorgansofthetargetmarket PlanningcommissionofBeijing buildingcommittee planningthecommittee etc Researchinstitutionandtradeorganizeexperts PlanninginstituteofMinistryofConstruction theplanninganddesigninstituteofBeijing fundresearchcenterofterritory etc 14 第二阶段研究主要结论 1 土地储备制度在国内普遍展开 城市政府增加了收入来源 对于电缆入地建设的支持能力增强 但是由于土地储备收入的支配在各个城市差异很大 一定时期内还无法争取到让所有城市为电缆入地划分固定的投入比例城市供电局表示不能独立负担电缆入地建设 愿意与城市政府共同分担 愿意分担的比例在1 3到1 2之间目前 架空线入地问题的解决 其决策实施中心在于各个城市而不是中央政府 但是建设部已经开始关注地下电缆与其他共同管线问题 希望从政策上扫除阻碍地下管线共同建设的障碍 预计会形成有利于架空线入地建设的政策环境 15 第二阶段研究主要结论 2 通过对于不同筹资建设方式的城市进行调查 理想的架空线入地方式要满足以下条件把电力电缆建设当作城市的基础设施建设的一部分共同分担 减轻政府和供电局负担有制度化解决方式 变不规律的临时项目补贴为制度化的 国土基金 有相应的组织和规范建设 设立专门的组织 例如 管线办 专职负责入地建设引入社会投资 变无偿为有偿使用 提高资金投入的热情以沈阳为代表的社会投资建设管线的方式和深圳为代表的 国土基金 模式是目前比较成功和有代表性的电缆建设筹资方式 16 第二阶段研究主要结论 3 北京市在奥运建设期间提供了架空线入地极大的有利条件预计2003 2008年期间 所使用的电缆用铜将在40 000吨以上北京市已经实施电费加价 以支持奥运建设期间的电力建设虽然所需的建设资金已经解决 北京市的架空线入地仍然存在不确定性电费加价资金完全由供电局支配 而供电局对于电缆建设的热情并不高 无法保证建设资金用于架空线入地建设政府缺乏相应的机构来监督和推进架空线入地 难以保证架空线入地的计划和实施 17 Partthree theacceptablewayandinputinreplaceofoverheadlinewithundergroundcableforthepowersupplybureau ThekeyfactorforlowundergroundcablinglevelisthatthepowersupplybureauburdensmostoftheinputwithoutsharingThepowersupplyenterpriseexpresseswillingnesstosharetheconstructionexpenseswiththelocalgovernmenttogether Unwillingtobearalone Thekeydiscrepancyhinderingthelocalgovernmentandpowersupplybureautocompriseisthe whetherthepowercableconstructionispartofinfrastructuresornot 第二部分 18 Summary Practiceshows fund raisingproblemcanonlybesolvedbysharingtogether forboththelocalgovernmentandpowersupplybureau Thepowersupplybureauneitherobjectsnorhasenthusiasmtotheoverheadwireentering Ifdoesnotshareandsupport thecablethatMostcitiesarewillingtoconstructwillnotexceed10kilometerseveryyear Bythelookofinvestigationresult 1 3districtsthatbearground enteringexpensesalonehaveacommoncharacteristic Currently underground enteringlevelisfarfromwhichthelocalgovernmentrequires Thecablerateisbelow30 inmostcities largecitiesincludedtoo Itseemshardtosolvetheconflictbetweenlocalgovernmentandpowersupplybureau Thelocalplanningcommitteecarriedseverepunishmentonthepowersupplybureauwhentheydon tbuildundergroundcableasrequested Butwhattheyhavedoneprofitlittle theylackeffectivewayiftheirrequirementisneglected Theycan tcollapsethe illegaloverheadline becausewhichwillharmthecitizens dailylife Mostundergroundcablewasbuiltduringthenationalupgradingofurbanpowernet Withthetheterminationpowernetupgrading thespeedofundergroundcablingslowlydownsimultaneously ExperiencefromGuangzhoushowsusthatitisnotfeasibleforthegovernmenttoburdenalltheinputtoo Practiceshowsthat inconstructingcable localgovernmentsharetheinputwithpowersupplybureau istheonlyway 第五部分 19 在过去的几年里 借助城网改造 城市供电公司承担着大多数的电缆建设费用 资料来源 新华信2002年市场调查 架空线入地的工作主要由供电部门在承担 第二部分 20 多数供电企业表示无力独自负担架空线入地 希望与地方政府共同承担 第二部分 愿意负担全部建设费用 2城市供电公司 不会出任何费用或仅可出很少费用 6城市供电公司 愿意与政府共同分担 16城市供电公司 21 多数供电企业表示无力独自负担架空线入地 希望与地方政府共同承担 只要市政府有规定 供电局愿意承担 因为经济比较发达 有支付能力 1城市 如果政府愿意投资给予支持 我们自身是愿意进行电缆入地工作的 1城市 资料来源 2002年4 5月 新华信公司对于全国范围内24个城市的供电公司进行了随机采访 调查了对于架空线入地建设问题的看法 电缆建设属于市政工程建设 应由政府承担一部分费用 2城市 电缆建设虽然是供电部门自己的事情 但是政府可以分担费用最好 1城市 电缆入地应该得到补偿 供电局只负责电缆的铺设问题 1城市 城网老化现象严重 供电局希望将更多的钱投入到电网改造上进行入地的话政府必须给予补偿 1城市 自己出材料 政府建沟 如果是专用电缆沟 则愿意一次向政府支付50 建沟费 如和其他管线建在一起 则需要进行核算 1城市 认为电缆入地牵涉部门很多 应有政府负责协调各部门间关系并给予补贴 1城市 在架空线改造中 埋地电缆的管沟是市政设施 应该由政府建设交给供电局无偿使用 8城市 城市电缆建设完全由其上级单位省电力公司承担 由市电力局自身不承担任何费用 所以完全承担也无所谓 1城市 第二部分 愿意负担全部建设费用 2城市供电公司 愿意与政府共同分担 16城市供电公司 22 相当一部分城市供电公司认为架空线入地的主要好处是美化市容 对于电力公司而言没有很大益处 因而不愿意投入 不主张电缆入地 原因 1投入大产出小 无收益 2把架空塔建的美观些 线路架高 下边绿化好 也很美观 大规模入地 出现故障 抢修不便 1城市 电缆建设是国家电力公司的事情 地方供电企业和地方政府都不该出钱 1城市 供电企业经济实力有限 没有必要大规模建设埋地电缆 1城市 只愿意进行新电缆的入地工作 不愿意改建架空线 建的话需要政府自己想办法 2城市 电缆入地从根本上就是政府的事情 电缆入地只是会给供电局增加麻烦 当然应该由政府负责出资建设 1城市 第二部分 不会出任何费用或很少费用 6城市供电公司 23 如果与政府分担架空线入地任务 供电局可以付多少费 第二部分 愿意付电缆材料费 4城市供电公司 可以承担一半以上 7城市供电公司 只能负担1 3以下 12城市供电公司 24 架空线入地 供电公司愿意负担多少 第二部分 25 电力电缆是否属于基础设施 成为 架空 和 埋地 之间争论的焦点 城市政府认为建电缆是供电的义务 而供电局则认为架空线入地属于公共设施 需要得到城市的支持 由于没有形成统一的认识 过去几年里 供电局一直承担着架空线改造的主要责任 这是造成城市的电缆建设水平低的重要原因之一 城市规划与供电部门之间一直有下述的不一致认识 城市规划部门代表性看法 供电是企业 建设电缆是它自己的事情 政府没必要补贴供电局代表性观点 供电是公共基础设施 政府应该给予补贴和扶持架空绝缘线已经可以满足供电的需求 电缆供电太贵 没必要 第二部分 26 SectionIVCaseresearch enlightenmentoftypicalcitiesforconstructoverheadwireintoundergroundcable Shanghai ConfrontationbetweenOverheadandUndergroundisresolvedthroughinstitutionalizationShenzhen BringcableconstructionintolandreservationsystemDalian ConstructionofundergroundcablerequiresthetreatmentofinfrastructureGuangzhou RebuildingofoverheadwireshouldkeeppowersupplyenterpriseswithinboundsofinvestmenttogetherwiththegovernmentShenyang Explorationonpipelinemanagementmethodtransferringfromgrand in aidtobusinessoperationBeijing IncreasingthepriceofpowerexpenditureisonlyadoptableforfinancingmethodofOlympicGameprojects 第四部分 27 Shanghai Supervisoryandmanagementsystemsforundergroundcableconstructionarefirstlyestablished CablelengthinShanghaiisnearly13 000kmtodayincluding35 ofundergroundcableand8 000kmofoverheadwire Atpresent above700kmmainlyofpowercablesareaddedeachyear IncentraldistrictinShanghai cablesof35KVare1000kmincludingabout28 ofcableswhichhaveoperatedformorethan40yearsandcablesof10KVare2000kmincludingabout14 ofcableswhichhaveoperatedformorethan40yearsShanghaimunicipalgovernmenthasclearlyshownitsaltitudeofagainstoverheadwireandactivelydevelopedpowercableconstruction Themainmeasuresare Newprojectsmuchadoptpowercablewhichshouldbeinvestedbydeveloperandpowersupplybureau TherangeofimplementationhasenlargedfromurbandistrictstoruralcountiesMunicipalresidencebureaurecentlyworkedoutastipulationforconstructionunitthatnewlyconstructedresidentialareasshouldlayundergroundcable Thisstipulationpointedoutthatincasethecompletingcabledesignsolutionforpowersupply telephoneandcableTVofresidentialareasbeingconstructed whichhasclearlydefinedtoinstalloverheadwire shouldputonrecordtotheresidentialbureauoflocaldistrictandcountyandthepowercableshouldbelaidundergroundForthoseresidentsinShanghaiwhichhasbeencompletedandapprovedtoinstalloverheadcablewhileapplyingbasecode residentialbureauwillundertakeinvestigationanddealwithcoordinately Forthosesuburbanresidentsoutoflooplines residentialbureauwill accordingtotheconsumableleveloftheseresidents fulfillthepipelinemanagementmeasuresgraduallyandletcitizenstherealsofarawayfromwiresandcablesOverheadwireswithindowntowndistrictshouldbeburiedundergroundalongwiththeroadrebuilding Governmentwillbeinchargeofconstructionofcablegrooveandpowersupplybureauofcablelayout PipelineOfficeunderthemunicipaladministrationbureauwillsuperviseundergroundcableconstructionandpunishthosewhoviolatethestipulationaccordingtolocalcableconstructionmanagementsupervision Fromoursurvey wecanseethatthesemeasuresarewellreceivedbypowersupplybureausandpipelinesupervisionworksareveryeffective 第四部分 上海 28 PipelineOfficeinShanghaiprovideusthebeneficialexplorationtoresolveinstitutionallytheconfrontationbetweenOverheadandUnderground UponestablishmentofPipelineOffice undergroundconstructionofoverheadwireofthecityhashaditsownorganizationalguarantee TheofficelistedtheOverheadandUndergroundconfrontationwhichpuzzledthegovernmentinpasttimeintotheirownworkingcontentandcarriedouttheworksoffollowingaspects Supervisionandexecutionofundergroundconstructionofoverheadwire Forthoseoverheadwhichshouldbeburiedunderground PipelineOfficewillactivelycoordinatewithpowersupplybureauandensuretheexecutionofundergroundbury Incasethecoordinationdon tachieveeffect PipelineOfficehastherighttoburythecableundergroundbyitselfandchargetheexpendituretotheresponsiblepartyaccordingtothestipulationPropagationworkofundergroundconstructionofoverheadwire undergroundconstructionofoverheadwireisnotonlythenecessityofcitydevelopmentbutalsothenecessarymeasureofexcellentpowersupplyingservices Throughorganizingsystematicresearchesandpropagation PipelineOfficecanraisetherecognitionofpowersupplybureausforundergroundconstructionofoverheadwireandpropelthesmoothprogressofundergroundconstructionofoverheadwireResearchandfindthemostsuitableundergroundconstructionofoverheadwiremeasuresEnlightenmentofundergroundconstructionofoverheadwiremanagementfromPipelineOfficeInShanghaiare ItshouldhavelawstofollowandcorrespondinglocalregulationforsupportItshouldhavespecialorganizationastheguaranteeofexecution 第四部分 上海 29 TopicsuncompletedbyPipelineOfficeinShanghai Howtoreducetheheavyloadofcableconstructionovertheshoulderofgovernment ThemissionofPipelineOfficeinShanghaiisnotonlytoensuretheeffectivenessofundergroundconstructionofoverheadwirebuttofindsuitablefinancingandmanagingmethodsforcableconstructionAtpresent undergroundconstructionofoverheadwireinShanghaiishighlyeffective However itisthegovernmentwhoprovidefundtoconstructcablegroove ThustheexpenditureoffreepowerconsumptionishugeandbringthegreatpressuretogovernmentalfinancestatusInmanycities landstoringsystemgivesthegreatsupporttothefinancialstatusofthelocalgovernment HoweverinShanghai thehighlydevelopedcity undevelopedandre plannedlandsareverylimited ThegovernmentcannotrealizesupportingpipelinewithlandChangingthegratuitousinvestmentasthepayableutilization undertakingthepipelineconstructionasbusinessoperationandleasingthepowerenergysoastoattractsocialinvestmenttotheconstructionofpipelineandachievetheloadreductionofthegovernmentarepossiblythetopicsfacingbythePipelineOfficeinShanghaiinfutureExperiencesachievedbyShanghaiCityisparticularlyreferabletothoseregionswherelanddevelopingpotentialisverylimited 第四部分 上海 30 Shenzhen Bringcableconstructionintolandreservationsystem Highcableapplicationlevel Sincethebeginningof90s Shenzhenbegantocarryonoverallcityplanningpolicy Particularlyinspecialzone themunicipalgovernmentbegantocarrylargelyonurbanpowercableconstructionsince1992 Urbangridrebuildingstartedin1998hasmadeShenzhenrealizedthefullycableapplicationlevel AccordingtotheinformationprovidedbycableinstituteofmunicipalpowersupplybureauinShenzhen thecablelengthcurrentlyinShenzhen excludingShekouIndustrialZone is1500kmwithaveragelyannualgrowthof200KM 90 ofthespecialzonehaveappliedcableShenzhengovernmentworkedouttheinflexiblestipulationsonundergroundconstructionofoverheadwire Nonewlyaddedoverheadwireappearinthecityanymoreandoriginaloverheadwirewillalsobegraduallyrebuiltintoundergroundcable Inacertainperiodinfuture undergroundconstructionofoverheadwireoutofthespecialzonewillalsobecompletelystarted Manycitiesforcefullystipulatedthatoverheadwirehavetobeburiedunderground However regardingtotheeffectiveness Shenzhencanbesaidasthemodel TheyinstitutionalizedthemanagementofcableconstructionandbringitintoLandFundoftheinstitutionasonepartofthesystematiclandreservationsystemCultivatedLandpolicyinShenzhenissuitableforallinfrastructureincludingpowercable Theypracticallyandinstitutionallyestablishedthenecessaryrelationshipbetweenlandreservationandinfrastructureconstruction 第四部分 深圳 31 LandFundandCultivatedLandModel Institutionalizedmodelofinfrastructureconstruction CableconstructionmethodinShenzhenisthatgovernmentconstructscablegrooveanddeliverstopowersupplybureauforusefreeofcharge ConstructionofcablegrooveisjustsimilartoconstructionofgreenlandwhichisfinanciallysupportedbyLandFundofwhichtheincomeisobtainedthroughlandauction ThismethodiscalledasCultivatedlandModelwhichisonepartoflandreservationsystem Theconcretemeasuresare Accordingtotheplan LandFundisestablishedthroughlandreservationandauction OnepartofLandFundwillbeusedasthecosttopurchasemorelandandlevelthelandAlltheundevelopedlandswhichareregainedbygovernmentwillinvitetenderandbeauctionedthroughLandandRealEstateTradeCenterunderthelandplanningbureauofShenzhengovernment ThelandpricepaidbydeveloperswhowonthetenderincludescostexpenditureofinfrastructureconstructionExpenditureofinfrastructureoutofthePlannedredlinecomesfromLandFundandlocalconstructiondepartmentwillorganizetoimplementtheconstruction InShenzhen municipallandplanningdepartmentwillworkouttheunificationplantothewholecityandplanningresultwillbepublishedanddeterminedthroughthemethodofLegalLegend Eachcorrespondingdepartmentwillfulfillitsownpipelineconstructionaccordingtothisplan ThisavoidedeffectivelytheblindnessandshorttermbehaviorofconstructionThemethodshoulderingexpensesofcablegrooveconstructioniswellreceivedbypowersupplycompaniesandensurestherapidprocessofcableapplicationlevel 第四部分 深圳 32 ExperiencesandproblemsinShenzhen Howtochangetheconstructionandapplicationofcablegroovefromgrand in aidtobusinessoperation ExperiencesofShenzhencityarevaluabletobereferredbythosecitieswhohavebroadlandreservationpotential BringcableconstructionintoplanningsystemasonepartofinfrastructureconstructionandestablishLandFundSystemofcityconstructionwithincomesobtainedthroughlandauction Thisavoidssomeshort termactivitiessuchasKeyGrand in aid GiftEngineeringandSceneryStreet etc Unifytogetherthelandplan valuegrowthoflandreservation lan