供应链管理 第三版 Unit7 习题与答案.doc

Chapter 7Demand Forecasting in a Supply ChainTrue/False1. The forecast of demand forms the basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate2. Throughout the supply chain, all pull processes are performed in anticipation of customer demand, whereas all push processes are performed in response to customer demand.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy3. For pull processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to plan the level of available capacity and inventory.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate4. For push processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to plan the level of available capacity and inventory.Answer: FalseDifficulty: HardThe resulting forecast accuracy enables supply chains to be both more responsive and more efficient in serving their customers. 5. The result when each stage in the supply chain makes its own separate forecast is often a match between supply and demand, because these forecasts are often very different.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate6. When all stages of a supply chain produce a collaborative forecast, it tends to be much more accurate.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy7. Leaders in many supply chains have started moving toward collaborative forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate8. Mature products with stable demand are usually the most difficult to forecast.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate9. Forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions are extremely difficult when either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy10. Forecasts are always right.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy11. Forecasts should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.Answer: True Difficulty: Moderate12. Long-term forecasts are usually more accurate than short-term forecasts.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate13. Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts, as they tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate14. In general, the further up the supply chain a company is (or the further they are from the consumer), the smaller the distortion of information they receive.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy15. Collaborative forecasting based on sales to the end customer can help enterprises further up the supply chain reduce forecast error.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate16. Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate when there is good historical data available or when experts do not have market intelligence that is critical in making the forecast.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate17. Time series forecasting methods are based on the assumption that past demand history is a good indicator of future demand.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy18. Time series forecasting methods are the most difficult methods to implement.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate19. Causal forecasting methods find a correlation between demand and environmental factors and use estimates of what environmental factors will be to forecast future demand.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate20. Simulation forecasting methods imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand to arrive at a forecast.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate21. The objective of forecasting is to filter out the random component (noise) and estimate the systematic component.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate22. The forecast error measures the difference between the forecast and the estimate.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy23. The goal of any forecasting method is to predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the random component.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate24. A static method of forecasting assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component vary as new demand is observed.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy25. In adaptive forecasting, the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate26. The moving average forecast method is used when demand has an observable trend or seasonality.Answer: FalseDifficulty: ModerateMultiple Choice1. The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain comes froma. the forecast of demand.b. sales targets.c. profitability projections.d. production efficiency goals.e. all of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Easy2. For push processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order toa. plan the service level.b. plan the level of available capacity and inventory.c. plan the level of productivity.d. plan the level of production.e. none of the aboveAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate3. For pull processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order toa. plan the service level.b. plan the level of available capacity and inventory.c. plan the level of productivity.d. plan the level of production.e. none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Moderate4. The result of each stage in the supply chain making its own separate forecast isa. an accurate forecast.b. a more accurate forecast.c. a match between supply and demand.d. a mismatch between supply and demand.e. none of the aboveAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate5. When all stages of a supply chain produce a collaborative forecast, it tends to bea. much more detailed.b. much more complex.c. much more accurate.d. much more flexible.e. all of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Moderate6. The resulting accuracy of a collaborative forecast enables supply chains to bea. more responsive but less efficient in serving their customers.b. both more responsive and more efficient in serving their customers.c. less responsive but less efficient in serving their customers.d. both less responsive and less efficient in serving their customers.e. None of the above are true.Answer: bDifficulty: Moderate7. Leaders in many supply chains have started moving a. toward independent forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand.b. toward consecutive forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand.c. toward sequential forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand.d. toward collaborative forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand.e. None of the above are true.Answer: dDifficulty: Moderate8. Production can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerninga. scheduling.b. sales-force allocation. c. promotions.d. new product introduction.e. budgetary planning.Answer: aDifficulty: Moderate9. Marketing can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerninga. scheduling.b. promotions.c. inventory control.d. aggregate planning.e. purchasing.Answer: bDifficulty: easy10. Finance can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerninga. scheduling.b. promotions.c. plant/equipment investment.d. aggregate planning.e. purchasing.Answer: aDifficulty: Moderate11. Personnel can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerninga. scheduling.b. promotions.c. plant/equipment investment.d. workforce planning.e. purchasing.Answer: bDifficulty: Moderate12. Mature products with stable demanda. are usually easiest to forecast.b. are usually hardest to forecast.c. cannot be forecast.d. do not need to be forecast.e. none of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Easy13. When either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable, forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisionsa. are extremely simple.b. are relatively straightforward.c. are extremely difficult.d. should not be attempted.e. none of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Easy14. One of the characteristics of forecasts is a. forecasts are always right.b. forecasts are always wrong.c. short-term forecasts are usually less accurate than long-term forecasts.d. long-term forecasts are usually more accurate than short-term forecasts.e. none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Moderate15. One of the characteristics of forecasts isa. aggregate forecasts are usually less accurate than disaggregate forecasts.b. disaggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than aggregate forecasts.c. short-term forecasts are usually less accurate than long-term forecasts.d. long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts.e. none of the aboveAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate16. One of the characteristics of forecasts isa. aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts.b. disaggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than aggregate forecasts.c. short-term forecasts are usually less accurate than long-term forecasts.d. long-term forecasts are usually more accurate than short-term forecasts.e. none of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Moderate17. Forecasts are always wrong and therefore a. should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.b. should not include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.c. should only be used when there are no accurate estimates.d. should be missing the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.e. none of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Easy18. Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts becausea. short-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than long-term forecasts.b. short-term forecasts have more standard deviation of error relative to the mean than long-term forecasts.c. long-term forecasts have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts.d. long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts.e. none of the aboveAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate19. Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts becausea. aggregate forecasts tend to have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean.b. aggregate forecasts tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.c. disaggregate forecasts tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.d. disaggregate forecasts tend to have less standard deviation of error relative to the mean.e. none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Easy20. In general, the further up the supply chain a company is (or the further they are from the consumer),a. the greater the distortion of information they receive.b. the smaller the distortion of information they receive.c. the information they receive is more accurate.d. the information they receive is more useful.e. none of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Moderate21. Which of the following is not a forecasting method?a. qualitativeb. time seriesc. causald. simulatione. All of the above are forecasting methods.Answer: eDifficulty: Moderate22. Forecasting methods that are primarily subjective and rely on human judgment are known asa. qualitative forecasting methods.b. time series forecasting methods.c. causal forecasting methods.d. simulation forecasting methods.e. none of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Moderate23. Forecasting methods that use historical demand to make a forecast are known asa. qualitative forecasting methods.b. time series forecasting methods.c. causal forecasting methods.d. simulation forecasting methods.e. none of the above.Answer: bDifficulty: Moderate24. Forecasting methods that assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the environment (e.g., the state of the economy, interest rates, etc.) to make a forecast are known asa. qualitative forecasting methods.b. time series forecasting methods.c. causal forecasting methods.d. simulation forecasting methods.e. none of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Moderate25. Forecasting methods that imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand to arrive at a forecast are known asa. qualitative forecasting methods.b. time series forecasting methods.c. causal forecasting methods.d. simulation forecasting methods.e. none of the aboveAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate26. Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate whena. there is good historical data available.b. there is little historical data available.c. experts do not have critical market intelligence.d. forecasting demand into the near future.e. trying to achieve a high level of detail. Answer: bDifficulty: Moderate27. Time series forecasting methods are most appropriate whena. there is little historical data available.b. the basic demand pattern varies significantly from one year to the next.c. the basic demand pattern does not vary significantly from one year to the next.d. experts have critical market intelligence.e. forecasting demand several years into the future.Answer: cDifficulty: Hard28. Which forecasting methods are the simplest to implement and can serve as a good starting point for a demand forecast?a. qualitative forecasting methodsb. time series forecasting methodsc. causal forecasting methodsd. simulation forecasting methodse. none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Moderate 29. Which of the following is correct?a. Observed demand (O) = Level component (L) + Random component (R)b. Observed demand (O) = Seasonal component (S) + Random component (R)c. Observed demand (O) = Systematic component (S) + Trend component (T)d. Observed demand (O) = Systematic component (S) + Random component (R)e. Observed demand (O) = Trend component (T) + Random component (R)Answer: dDifficulty: Easy30. Which of the following is not a step to help an organization perform effective forecasting?a. Understand the objective of forecasting.b. Integrate demand planning and forecasting throughout the supply chain.c. Understand and identify customer segments.d. Identify and understand supplier requirements.e. Determine the appropriate forecasting technique.Answer: dDifficulty: Moderate31. The goal of any forecasting method is toa. predict the random component of demand and estimate the systematic component.b. predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the random component.c. predict the seasonal component of demand and estimate the random component.d. predict the random component of demand and estimate the seasonal component.e. predict the trend component of demand and estimate the random component.Answer: bDifficulty: Moderate32. The multiplicative form of the systematic component of demand is shown asa. level trend seasonal factor.b. level + trend + seasonal factor.c. (level + trend) seasonal factor.d. level (trend + seasonal factor).e. (level trend) + seasonal factor.Answer: aDifficulty: Easy33. The additive form of the systematic component of demand is shown asa. level trend seasonal factor.b. level + trend + seasonal factor.c. (level + trend) seasonal factor.d. level (trend + seasonal factor).e. (level trend) + seasonal factor.Answer: bDifficulty: Easy34. The mixed form of the systematic component of demand is shown asa. level trend seasonal factor.b. level + trend + seasonal factor.c. (level + trend) seasonal factor.d. level (trend + seasonal factor).e. (level trend) + seasonal factor.Answer: cDifficulty: Hard35. Which of the following is not a necessary step to estimate the three parameterslevel, trend, and seasonal factors of the systematic component of demand?a. Deseasonalize demand and run linear regression to estimate level and trend.b. Estimate seasonal factors.c. Remove the trend factor of demand and run linear regression to estimate seasonal factors.d. All of the above are steps.e. None of the above are steps.Answer: cDifficulty: Moderate36. A static method of forecastinga. assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component do not vary as new demand is observed.b. assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component vary as new demand is observed.c. the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.d. All of the above are true.e. None of the above are true.Answer: aDifficulty: Easy37. In adaptive forecastinga. there is an assumption that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component do not vary as new demand is observed.b. the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component are not adjusted as new demand is observed.c. the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.d. All of the above are true.e. None of the above are true.Answer: cDifficulty: Easy38. The moving average forecast method is used whena. demand has observable trend or seasonality.b. demand has no observable trend or seasonality.c. demand has observable trend and seasonality.d. demand has no observable level or seasonality.e. none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Moderate39. The simple exponential smoothing forecast method is appropriate whena. demand has observable trend or seasonality.b. demand has no observable trend or seasonality.c. demand has observable trend and seaso