投资学-房地产和保利股票分析.doc

Investment 姓 名：黄靖 彭聃 学 号：40903641 40903629 A.managementThe real estate market to keep back situation，Investment held steady growth fell back，New commenced area grow lowly ，Home sales decline continues to expand，The real estate loan growth continue to fall back，Housing price fell，Down the number of city more than rise compared to the number of the city。From the management policy ，Divided into several aspects of the management：In the first place，management of Housing policy 。From 2009 till 2012，Solve the problems of housing difficulties of low-income urban basic existing family housing 。Improve the real match rent and rental subsidy combination of low-rent housing system in Further ，In the key to speed up the housing system construction，Perfect the relevant land and Tax and credit support policies。Next will be personal housing transfer business tax by 2 years time limit newly-built recovery to 5 years,Contain Chao Fang phenomenon。Business tax preferential cancelled,deed tax、Individuals to buy or sell stamp duty、Personal sold to maintain the land value added tax also。The last is to continue to support people live and improve the type of housing consumption，Inhibition of speculative investment purchase。Increase the differentiation credit policy enforcement prevent all types of housing mortgages loan risk。Second，The management of the land policy。First to speed up the establishment and revision of 2010 to 2011 this year and affordable housing land supply plan，Classification to determine the construction of low-rent housing，forest zone、reclamation area and Mining area reconstruction shanty towns，Those rural reconstruction in three kinds of supportability project of the supply of land living standards and scale。In the second place，In order to promote new urban construction land to the timely and effective supply and can be fully used，To further strengthen the construction land management，Correction and curb illegal in accordance with the use of rural collective land, etc，Required local governments to strengthen the supervision of construction land after，According to crack down on behavior。Third，For the real estate business management。Strengthen to the real estate development enterprise purchase and financing of supervision。Special campaigns and clean up strength increasing，Strict laws and land idle and Fried to behavior，And restrictions have illegal enterprise newly that purchased the land 。Real estate development enterprises in the participation in land auction and development process，The shareholders shall not violate compasses to provide the loan guarantee or other related Zhuan Dai financing facilities。It is strictly prohibited to the real estate industry of state-owned and state holding enterprises to participate in the commercial land development and real estate business 。Commercial Banks to strengthen enterprise development of real estate mortgage loan and credit management review before after。To the existing land idle and Fried to the behavior of the real estate development enterprises，Commercial Banks shall not extend new development project loans，Securities regulatory department suspended approval for its listed refinancing and material assets reorganization。 Four，Market management system。Improving the real estate market information disclosure system。To the public housing construction plan and housing land supply plan year。Statistics department released study can reflect the different location、Different types of housing price change information。Increase the market transaction order supervision。In strict accordance with the declared price plain code marks a price foreign sales。Urban and rural construction and housing department to open to booking licence issued the commodity housing project to clean up，To the existing bidding up the prices of the behavior such as real estate development enterprise, the sanctions, the problem serious to cancel business qualification。B.develop As can be seen from the graph，As the control policy implementation and the national real estate market conditions change，The real estate loans outstanding growth began to fall back since May 2010 ，Long-term aspects of the growth in real estate is a drop in the trend，But from 2011 in the third quarter to 2012，Can see that in the short term is upward trend，But relatively small range。The long term investment in real estate development held steady fall back，And because the real estate lending growth at the back，So the real estate development will continue falling trend。in addition，The national policy promulgation and implementation，Need to carry out the construction of room in security，So affordable housing development loan will quickly grow，Thus in the new commenced area will be growth low 。Because of the influence of growth policies，Low speed is due to the real estate business more really commodity house construction and development，Not many developers and policy implementation in the construction development guarantee room。In selling，Home sales decline continues to expand，This is because in the development，Demand is far greater than supply，Demand has been in the state，Although the new real estate development face down，But because of the high demand for a short time，Sales will still be in a rising trend。last， the rise of New commodity room house price may continue to fall。In growth，From the data shows up down the number of city for the first time rose more than the number of city。This is also suggests new commodity room house was really a great influence on the policy，in the state of Fell，In the future development，in shot time it is continue to fall 。But from the point of the development of long-term，the Construction of New commodity room house is also just short-term drop，Long-term will rise，This is from stimulation of the requirements of the demand trend，If sustained decline，The demand is bound to lead to continue to rise greatly，Want to or develop new commodity house，And keep prices rise is basically impossible of achievement，It is against the principle of economics。C.Equity Analysis1. Poly Real Estate（600048）Poly real estate (group) Co., LTD. Is China poly group holdings of large state-owned real estate enterprise，Is China poly group cooperation estate business operation platform，National level of real estate development enterprise qualification 。July 31, 2006，The company stock on the Shanghai stock exchange listing，Be in after the reform of non-tradable shares，Restart the IPO market of the first listed the first real estate enterprise。2.financial analysisA .The major accounting data From the data we can see that，the total business income is the highest in 2011 year，With an increase of 31.04%，And operating profit in 2011 is the highest。From the table we can see clearly，Overall growth is considerable，And in relegated to the shareholders of a listed company in the net profit，32.74% of the growth is also a larger，Can be summed up in the size of the company is growing，And also can see its profitability is more outstanding。B .The major accounting data PolyWankeThrough the collection of data，Poly wanke to a series of data analysis。As can be seen from the graph。Poly gross margin and China wanke is basically the same，Operating Profit Margin and Sales profit margin is basically similar。But the total assets of the return rate than the average low poly wanke to 2%，And the net assets yield contrast to see。Poly is much higher than China wanke，It also shows that the earning power is poly than China wanke very much，Profit ability is stronger。3.Poly K chart analysisFrom the graph that，November 2007，Poly real estate to the highest bidder 98.5 a share，By 2008, however began to drop dramatically，And then in 2010 once again the drop dramatically。The cause of the rise in can be divided into two points，first： a bursting of the china house price bubble ，Too many people buying stock，Cause the stock has been surging。second：Bidding up the prices，Cause real estate strong reaction，Bring the highly profitable real estate business，high return，From essentially promoted stock prices。The causes for the deterioration of the also can be divided into two points，first the 2008 financial crisis to bring global financial impact，Chinas securities market all suffer，General decline。second：National policies many restrictions，Prevent overheating in housing prices，Inhibition of real estate recovery and continued development。So there two a boom and two slump。But now，Real estate stock price is still in a recession，Poly real estate is the lowest to fluctuations。42 yuan per share，to this day，Poly real estate and most other real estate，In low state。Not too big or main reasons for fluctuation of the country is also being macroeconomic policy。In November 2007, rise continuously K line, to 98.5, followed a cross, and then is the first crash to 65.72, short-term concussion wave after, change is a slump。Now，The investment value has been underestimated badly，The future is valuable recursive likelihood。The risk from the current state and see，Message in a low risk，Central Line are in the low risk。But at present due to the risk in moderate，So go against short line operation。See chart from K，Now at a sideways suck raise stage，Short line volatility will exist，But in the long term is a rising trend。Recent data from the report can be informed，Signed on April realize company covers an area of 71.9 square，Signing amount of 9.148 billion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 45%, respectively and 37，Sales amount for the third month of historical high；Before April 24.014 billion yuan accumulated realize signing, an increase of 16。taking one with another，At present short line is not suitable for operation, but long term can consider poly real estate。4. Comprehensive stock analysis The company business analysis:Sales area and sales amount double keeping。In the first half of the sales contract amount is 21.76 billion yuan, covers an area of 267.1 square meters sales,Year-on-year growth of 5.8%, respectively, and 3.3。In the wanbao zhaojin four leading room in enterprises,Sales of positive growth in the first half of the poly real estate only one,Company sales ability is more outstanding。Actively give land, expand the land reserve。The company remains active in the first half of the expansion,In the new development 15 projects,Rights building area of 506 square meters,Still more radical than counterparts。The final report,The company consists of aiming project under construction in 115,Covers an area of 2640 square meters,Volume rate area reaches 4400 square meters。 The profit forecast and investment advice。The company in the next two years should be able to continue to keep the growth rate of faster,The company is expected to 2013 to 2014 years in earnings per share of 2.06 3.39 yuan,From history valuation levels and see,The dynamic obviously low valuations。But on March the housing sector overall rally to a larger extent,The current market environment makes us more attention to short-term adjustment risks。Poly real estate is leading real estate enterprise listed in growth and robustness of both varieties,Both strong power scholars from renmin background,And have good performance support, while maintaining a high Speed development momentum,still is currently in real estate enterprise at the strategic allocation of good varieties。Considering The Comprehensive ,Still maintain the early stage of the company increasing rating。 5.Positive AnalysisIn Europe and America, under the background of the stock market rebound sharply，The A share market also started strong rebound。In spite of brokers and real estate two big weight plates lead，But because the quantity are suffering，The strength of the rebound do not look good。Although in many of the policy suppressed，In this years market performance property counters were instead appears unusually bright beautiful。Perhaps is depressive time too long，Real estate leading performance stability and strong，So a line with property in performance this year especially well。Among，Poly Real Estate（600048）Repeated stock record high since this year。Poly real estates share price has risen this year for 38%。A total of 94 million yuan net inflows the stock funds，The net inflow of capital city ranked two 11,，Push the stock rose 5.42，And drive