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联合国的未来 The Future of UN（英语文摘）译者点评：联合国作为一个极为重要的国际组织，在维护世界和平与发展，解决国际争端等问题上发挥着不可替代的作用。一年前，美国不顾众多国家的反对，悍然发动了伊拉克战争，使联合国的国际地位与应有作用遭受了前所未有的质疑。回顾联合国的创立和发展，人们必然要深刻反思联合国目前所受到的挑战。The invasion of Iraq destroyed the regime of Saddam Hussein as it was intended to do but did it also mark the beginning of the end for the United Nations Is the UN of any use at all in a world in which a single country towers over all others in military political and economic clout and is bent on having its own wayFor some people the UN Security Councils apparent reluctance to enforce its own resolutions against Iraq was a disgrace. For others the diplomatic armtwisting and public posturing in the council by the United States was a sordid spectacle that ended with America and Britain brushing the council aside and launching an invasion without a second resolution. However the Iraq episode is viewed the UNs standing has taken a beating. The bombing of the organizations Baghdad offices casts an ominous shadow over its attempts to play a useful role in Iraq though paradoxically it may also have encouraged a tentative rapprochement between America and its Security Council critics. Does the UN have a futureThe UN was above all an American creation. Following the League of Nations fiasco after the first world war no other country had much enthusiasm for a second attempt at a world body. Both Stalin and Churchill were openly sceptical. But for Americas president Franklin Roosevelt establishing the United Nations was a top priority. Even while America continued to fight a world war on two fronts Roosevelt devoted large amounts of time and political capital to his pet project.After years of planning in Washington Roosevelt seriously ill traveled to Yalta in early 1945 to win Stalins agreement on postwar arrangements. The centerpiece of these would be the UN. Many of the people close to Roosevelt believed that the trip hastened his death which came two months later only 13 days before the UNs founding conference in San Francisco was scheduled to begin. Stepping into his shoes an inexperienced and somewhat shaken Harry Truman promptly announced that the UN conference would go ahead and committed himself to its success. The American delegation arrived in San Francisco armed with detailed blueprints and negotiating strategies and then spent two intense months hammering out a final agreement with 46 other countries. In the United States the result was hailed as a triumph of American diplomacy.The most striking aspect of this tale is that in 1945 Americas global dominance was even greater than it is today. All other great powers lay in ruins while America itself was spared bombing or invasion. Americas factories were working at full tilt. Its armed forces were the most powerful in the world by far and it was only months from unveiling a terrible new weapon the atomic bomb which no other country possessed. Americas economic output by some estimates was half of the worlds total.At the peak of Americas powers in other words its leaders were determined to create a multilateral institution involving as many nations as possible as a primary mechanism for ensuring American as well as global security. In his speech before the San Francisco conference Truman was explicit about the price of doing so. “We all have to recogniseno matter how great our strengththat we must deny ourselves the licence to do always as we please.” For America itself Truman argued this was a price well worth paying. The contrast with the attitude of most subsequent American governments and especially the current one could not be more stark. Many Bush administration officials seem to view the UN either as an irrelevance or as a dangerous constraint.Roosevelt was one of the savviest and most hardheaded politicians ever to occupy the White House. He had no intention of repeating the mistakes of Woodrow Wilson whose League of Nations was repudiated by the American Senate and then became an impotent talking shop as the world slid towards another world war. Roosevelts new organization was to include as many nations large and small as possible but it was to be dominated by the great powers and when they were able to agree it was meant to have real muscle.The conferences participants were also under no illusions about what was at stake. The second world war had not yet ended and frictions between the United States and the Soviet Union were already growing threatening yet another round of conflict. Participants did not dream that they were laying the foundations for world government. Their aim was a global security pact strong enough to avoid another world war.So has the UN worked as its founders hoped Certain features which sparked fierce debate in San Francisco and loomed large in the original designtrusteeships membership requirements a permanent military staff committee a revision conferenceproved irrelevant in the long term. Others such as the growth of the UNs agencies dealing with humanitarian aid and economic development were not anticipated. There has been no third world war but how much credit the UN can take for this is at best debatable. The truth is that the organization has had its ups and downs which have largely coincided with support or hostility to it from the great powers.But through all its vicissitudes two of the UNs core features have survived. As history points out it has become a forum where all states including the great powers talk to each other on a continuous basis. And with the Bush administration now seeking yet another Security Council resolution encouraging other countries to send troops to Iraq it seems clear that the UN still retains something which even the worlds sole superpower finds it difficult to do without the ability to create broad coalitions amid an atmosphere of trust and legitimacy.正如所期望的那样，侵略伊拉克的战争摧毁了萨达姆政权。但这是否也标志着联合国末日的开始呢？一个大国比其他所有国家在军事、政治和经济领域都拥有无可争议的优势，并决意随心所欲行事。在这样的世界格局中，联合国还能发挥什么作用吗？安理会在实施制裁伊拉克的决议时态度明显十分勉强，这在一些人看来是联合国的耻辱；而在另一些人眼里，美国在安理会中施加外交压力并采取公开的强硬姿态是卑陋可耻的行径。最终，美英置安理会于不顾，不等通过第二个决议，就发动了侵略伊拉克的战争。无论人们怎样看待伊拉克问题，联合国的地位已经遭受了损害。联合国试图在伊拉克起着有益的作用，但联合国驻巴格达办事处被炸事件给它的努力笼罩了不祥的阴影。虽然从相反的角度看，这也可能有助于促成美国和它在安理会中的批评者之间暂时的和解。联合国还有未来吗？重要的一点是，联合国是美国创立的。一战后，随着国际联盟的彻底瓦解，没有其他国家有兴趣再去尝试建立一个国际组织。斯大林和丘吉尔公开表示怀疑。但对于美国总统富兰克林罗斯福来说，建立联合国是他的首要任务。甚至当美国还在两个战场上继续进行世界大战时，罗斯福就已经将大量的时间和政治资本投入到他钟爱的计划中去了。经过在华盛顿几年的酝酿，1945年初，身患重病的罗斯福赴雅尔塔，以求取得斯大林对重建战后世界格局的一致意见。成立联合国是重建工作的重中之重。许多与罗斯福关系密切的人士认为，雅尔塔之行加速了罗斯福的去世。两个月之后，也就是计划在旧金山召开联合国成立大会前13天，罗斯福逝世。缺乏经验并有点摇摆不定的哈里杜鲁门继任总统，他随即宣布联合国大会如期举行，并将胜利归功于自己。美国代表团到达旧金山，准备了详尽的草案和磋商策略，经过两个月的紧张工作，和其他46个国家达成了最后协议。会议的成果在美国国内受到赞扬，被认为是美国外交的一大胜利。最为引人注目的是，1945年美国在全球的优势地位甚至超过今天。所有其他大国均战痕累累，而美国本土却幸免于轰炸或入侵。美国的工厂正加足马力生产。它的军队是世界上最强大的，仅在几个月前，美国生产出了其他国家没有掌握的杀伤力极强的新式武器原子弹。据估计，美国当时的经济产量占了世界产量的一半。换言之，在国家处于鼎盛时期，美国的领导人决心创建一个包括尽可能多的国家的多边国际机构，以确保美国以及全球的安全。在旧金山会议上发表的演讲中，杜鲁门总统明确地谈到了美国所应付出的代价。“我们都必须确认无论我们有多么强大也决不能够授予自己任意行事的权利。”杜鲁门提出，对美国而言，这是一个值得付出的代价。这一态度与美国此后的大多数历届政府，尤其是现任政府的态度相比截然不同。在许多布什政府官员的眼里，联合国似乎或者与美国毫不相干，或者是对美国的一种约束。罗斯福是入主白宫的最精明务实的、头脑最冷静的政治家之一。他不想重犯当年伍德罗威尔逊的错误。威尔逊创立的国际联盟被美国参议院否决，当世界一步步滑向又一场世界大战时，国际联盟变成了一个无能的空谈场所。罗斯福创建的新的国际组织要包括尽可能多的国家，不论大国和小国，但它将由大国掌控，当它们能达成一致时，它应该具有真正的影响力。参加会议的代表们对存在的威胁也没有抱幻想。二战还没有结束，美苏之间的摩擦已经在增加，并存在着新一轮冲突的威胁。与会代表并未梦想要为一个世界政府奠定基础，他们的目标是缔结一个强有力的全球安全公约，以避免另一场世界战争。因此，联合国有没有像它的创立者所希望的那样发挥作用？一些曾在旧金山引起激烈辩论和在最初的方案中显得突出的特点托管制度、成员国资格要求、常驻军事参谋委员会、决议修改会议从长期的观点来看，已被证明不重要了。而其他的特点，比如为联合国负责人道主义援助和经济发展机构的产生，并不是当初所预期的。第三次世界大战并未爆发，但联合国究竟在这方面起到了多少作用，从最乐观的角度来看也是一个有争议的问题。事实是这一国际组织已几经沉浮，而它的沉浮在很大程度上取决于一些大国对它所采取的支持或敌对态度。但是，经历了多年的沧桑变化，联合国仍然保持了两个核心特点。正如历史所显示的，它已成为包括大国在内的所有国家进行持续不断的对话的舞台。布什政府现在正努力敦促安理会通过新的决议鼓励其他国家向伊拉克派兵，从这点可以明显看出，联合国仍然拥有一种力量，而这种力量即便是世界上惟一的超级大国都很难摒弃，这就是在信任和合法的气氛中建立广泛联盟的能力。A fickle world has changed its mind about China again. A year ago the miracle of Chinese growth was widely seen as a bonanza for an otherwise sluggish global economy. Today China is being cast as a threatin effect, it has become a scapegoat for many of the more intractable problems that a dysfunctional world has been unable to solve.This role reversal is both disturbing and ill-founded. It probably says a good deal more about the West than it says about China. The case for China bashing stems largely from the angst about jobless recoveries in the worlds wealthy industrial nations. In particular, U.S. jobs are increasingly perceived as being exported to Chinaan erroneous perception that has tempted politicians to flirt with dangerous protectionist “remedies.”Chinas currency pega fixed arrangement between the renminbi RMB and the dollarhas become a lightning rod in this debate. In the eyes of many it underscores the unfair competitive advantage that China enjoys in an otherwise tough global marketplace. Pressure is being put on China to rework the peg. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recently noted that such a chance is a “fairly reasonable expectation.” A rumored 5% revaluation of the RMB is being hailed as a first step in taming the so-called China threatas if that would actually temper the worlds imbalances. Nothing could be further from the truth.Lost in the handwringing are the extraordinary benefits that a rapidly changing Chinese economy is bringing to the worldbenefits that an ungrateful world should give thanks for. Thats especially the case for the U.S. Yes China accounted for the largest portion of Americas record $540 billion trade deficit in 2003. But this deficit was not made in Beijingit was made in Washington. Thats rightcourtesy of a runaway federal budget deficit America has all but depleted its national savings. In order to fund the investment necessary for economic growth that shortfall of domestic savings must be offset by surplus savings from abroad. The U.S. has no choice other than to run massive balance of payments and trade deficits in order to attract foreign capital.For that reason alone China plays an important role in plugging a hole in the American economy. Just as Japan filled the void created by the Reagan budget deficits of the 1980s China is playing a similar role in an era of Bush budget deficits. Given our savings shortfallwe have to run trade deficits with someone. If it wasnt China it could be Mexico Canada or even Europe. The result would be higher cost imports that would represent a tax on the American consumera tax that would squeeze purchasing power and would undoubtedly constrain U.S. economic growth.In fact its the consumer who benefits the most from Americas trade with China. The U.S. purchased more than $150 billion of cheap high quality Chinese products last year. That helped hold down the inflation rate. U.S. import prices for items other than petroleum rose by only 1% in the 12 months ended in Decembera minuscule increase for a now rapidly growing economy with a weakening dollar. Low inflation provides a windfall of purchasing power to job short and income constrained U.S. consumers. America has China to thank for it.But thats not all. It turns out that China is plowing back a large portion of its export earnings into dollar based financial assets. As of last November China held $144 billion in Treasury securities thats 9.6% of total foreign holdings of such government papertriple Chinas share in 1994. Among foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries China is now second only to Japan and well ahead of Britain which is in third place.This is hardly a trivial matter. Normally outsized government borrowing would drive financing costs up. But eager Chinese buying of U.S. paper prevents that from happening. By helping keep interest rates low China is lending even more support to U.S. economic growth.Its not just America that should be grateful for Chinas dramatic emergence. Multinational corporations have moved rapidly to integrate China into the global supply chain. More than $50 billion in foreign direct investment went to China in each of the past two years making it the worlds largest recipient of such flows. Chinese subsidiaries of multinationals and joint venture partners from Japan the U.S. and Europe have accounted for 65% of the cumulative increase in total Chinese export growth over the past decade. Outsourcing has become an increasingly important element of corporate efficiency strategies around the world allowing high cost operations in developed countries to be replaced by low cost production in developing countries such as China. Ultimately these benefits are also passed on to consumers around the world.At the same time China has become an important source of growth for its neighbors in Asia and other countries. Youd never know that from all the clamor over Chinas export prowess. But the big secret is surging Chinese import demandup some 40% last year. As China erects the infrastructure of a modern economy it does so with capital equipment and technologies it purchases from countries and regions such as Japan South Korea Taiwan and Germany. Inasmuch as these same nations suffer from deficiencies of internal demandtheir China export businesses have become important sources of growth.The bottom line is that the so-called China threat rings hollow in an era of globalization. China is not stealing jobs from rich developed countries. Employment is growing in Chinas export sector because multinational corporations are expanding their Chinese subsidiaries. And Chinas demand for foreign made goods is supporting employment elsewhere in the world.Nor should China be accused of having an undervalued currency that gives it an unfair advantage in the battle for market share. Xenophobic American Congressmen believe that the countrys bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. is the smoking gun of a manipulated currency. Never mind that the RMB peg to the dollar hasnt changed since 1994 the more important point is that China runs large deficits with most of its other trading partners. As a consequence its overall trade position is only slightly in surplussome plus three tenths of a percent of Chinese gross domestic product in 2003. If anythingthis suggests that the Chinese currency may be fairly valuedat odds with those clamoring for a quick revaluation.Most of all the world owes a debt of gratitude to China for its commitment to dismantling its state-owned economy. For China this is the only avenue to sustained prosperity. For other nations it is an opportunity to tap an enormous market.Nor do we in the West have to worry that China will play unfairly on the road to reform. Chinas willing accession to the World Trade Organization guarantees that it will be held accountable to a system based on Western rules.By committing to such an extraordinary transformation China has thrown down the gauntlet to the rest of the world. Yes Chinas success is also a challenge It puts the rigid and outdated economies in Europe and Japan on notice that they must also change or risk being left behind in an increasingly fast moving time. Far from being a threat China is an important example for others to emulate.No one said globalization would be easy. But in the end it sure beats the alternatives. Thank you China for showing the way.反复无常的世界再次改变了对中国的看法。一年前，人们普遍认为中国经济的增长奇迹是治疗全球经济不景气的灵丹妙药。如今中国又被视作是一种威胁事实上中国已经成了这个运转不灵的世界无法解决的许多更加棘手问题的替罪羊。这种角色转换既令人不安又毫无根据。与其说这种转变表明了中国的特点，不如说它能使人们更了解那些西方国家。 攻击中国的主要原因是世界上富有的工业国对经济复苏却没有带来就业机会感到的忧虑。特别是，越来越多的人认为美国的就业机会被转移到了中国这种错误的观点已促使政客们转向危险的保护主义“补救办法”。中国的固定汇率制度即人民币和美元比价的固定安排成了这场辩论的焦点。在许多人看来，该制度使中国在竞争激烈的全球市场享有了不公平的竞争优势。有人向中国施压，要求调整这个制度。 美联储主席阿兰格林斯潘最近表示这种调整应是“一个比较合理的期待”。有谣传人民币将升值5%，这被看作是抵御所谓中国威胁的第一步好像这么做确实可以缓解全球不平衡的问题一样。这种看法真是荒谬至极。人们在焦虑中忘记了迅速变化的中国经济给世界带来的好处这个不知感恩的世界应该对此实惠表示感谢。美国尤其如此。是的，2003年中国在美国创纪录的5400亿美元贸易逆差中占据了最大的份额；但逆差不是中国造成的，而是美国自己造成的。由于失控的联邦预算赤字，美国几乎耗尽了它的国家储蓄。为了提供经济增长所必需的投资，国内储蓄的不足必须用国外多余的存款来弥补。为了吸引外国资本，美国除了承受巨额的国际收支和贸易逆差外别无选择。单单因为这个原因，中国就在填补美国经济的漏洞方面发挥了重要作用。 这就好像日本在上个世纪80年代弥补了里根政府的财政赤字一样，中国在布什政府赤字时代也发挥了类似的作用。既然我们储蓄不足，我们不得不承受对某个国家的贸易逆差。如果不是中国，那就可能是墨西哥、加拿大甚至欧洲。结果会是价格更高的进口产品流入美国，相当于对美国消费者征税这样会削弱购买力，而且无疑会限制美国的经济增长。实际上，美中贸易的最大受益者是美国消费者。去年，美国人购买了1500多亿美元价廉物美的中国货，帮助美国控制了通货膨胀。截至12月份，除了石油之外，美国进口商品的价格在过去的12个月中仅仅增长了1%。当前，美国经济迅速发展，而且美元持续走低，因此，这样的价格上扬是微不足道的。低通货膨胀为就业机会短缺、收入有限的美国消费者提供了额外的购买力。为此，美国应该感谢中国。事实不仅如此。实际上，中国正把很大一部分出口收入转为以美元为单位的金融资产。截至去年11月，中国持有1440亿美元的美国国库债券，占这类政府债券外国持有总额的9.6%，这个数字是中国1994年所持份额的3倍。在美国国库券的外国持有者中，中国仅次于日本，居第二位，远远超过第三位的英国。这不是一件小事。一般说来，过多的政府借款会使融资成本升高。但中国人热切地购买美国债券却阻止了这种情况的发生。通过保持低利率，中国向美国的经济增长提供了更多的支持。对中国引人注目的崛起应该心存感激的不仅仅是美国。跨国公司已迅速地将中国融入了全球供应链。在过去的两年，每年都有超过500亿美元的外国直接投资流入中国，使之成为世界上吸引外国直接投资最多的国家。过去10年中，中国外贸出口累积增长的65%是由跨国公司在中国设立的子公司以及来自日本、美国和欧洲的合资企业创造的。从全球范围看，外包已经成为公司效率战略中越来越重要的一部分，它使发达国家高成本的生产转移到中国这些生产成本较低的发展中国家，其好处将最终被全世界的消费者分享。与此同时，中国已成为它亚洲邻国及其他国家经济增长的重要源泉。在关于中国强劲出口的种种喧嚣中，你不会听到这种说法。秘密在于中国激增的进口需求去年它的进口增长了大约40%。中国正在建立现代经济所需的基础设施，因而从日本、韩国、德国及台湾等国家和地区购入生产资料和技术，而由于这些国家内需疲软，对于中国的出口就成了它们经济增长的重要源泉。归根结底，所谓的中国威胁在一个全球化的时代完全是空话。中国并没有从富有的发达国家窃取就业机会。中国的出口部门就业增长是因为跨国公司在中国的子公司的扩张。而中国对于外国商品的需求也在支持世界其他地方的就业机会。我们也不应指责中国因币值定价过低而在市场份额的争夺中拥有了不公平的优势。排外的美国众议员认为，中国与美国的双边贸易顺差是其币值受操纵的确凿证据。尽管从1994年开始，人民币与美元挂钩就从未改变但有一点更重要，那就是中国与大多数其他的贸易伙伴都保持着很大的贸易逆差。因此，中国总的贸易状况只是略有顺差约相当于其2003年国内生产总值的0.3%。我们只能得出这样的结论：中国货币的定价可能是比较合理的与那些要求中国尽快对人民币进行升值的叫嚣完全相反。世界最应该感激中国的是其国有经济改革的决心。对于中国而言，这是通向持久繁荣的惟一途径。而对于其他国家来说，这提供了占有一个巨大市场的机遇。我们这些西方人也无须担心中国会在改革进程中采取不公平的手段。中国自愿加入世贸组织，就确保了中国将在以西方国家制定的游戏规则为基础的体系中运作。通过投身于这场非凡的改革，中国向世界其他国家发起了挑战。是的，中国的成功也是一种挑战： 敦促欧洲和日本对僵化而过时的经济进行改革，否则就会被一个日新月异的时代抛在后面。中国根本不是什么威胁，而是其他国家应该仿效的榜样。没有人说过全球化将是一个简单的过程。但是，最终我们将发现它是最佳的选择。谢谢中国，你为我们指明了道路There is no single definition of human nature,for the simple reason that we are all individuals and no two humans are,or can ever be,exactly alike.Many an institution has been set up to try and make sense of the inscrutable nature of we human beings and,although an inroad has been made,it is only instrumental in showing how little we