国贸经济管理类毕业论文-论FDI技术外溢对东道国汽车产业的影响

?CR4WFJ0JA1 ?%R FDI BMQkv$%o+oo(o|g4MyBoo,EkV+Nk4VW+NDoik+VD|g4(oBoGk4VDJuUkk4,DGJkO-nk+VgeoekyEk4+o KdB FDI BG?CR4WFJ0JA2AbstractTechnology spillovers are an important gain of host country from FDI. Thisarticle has a deep research in the theory of technology spillovers, and set up amodel to examine the conditions of spillovers.On the basis of summarizing correlative theories, the paper has analyzed thetechnical spillover effect of MNCs direct investment in auto line, combined withthe characteristic of Chinese FDI. In the process of analysis, my study hasinvestigated the technical spillover effect from the view of whole auto line. Thestudy shows that the technical spillover effect has accelerated the improvement ofthe technology level of Chinese auto industry, and driven the development ofcorrelative industries. The result of econometric regression also displays that thepositive effect of FDI on the whole auto line should be affirmed.Finally, on the basis of the former theoretic analysis and empirical test, thepaper has put forward some material suggestions, aiming at the factors that affectthe technical spillover effect of MNCs. Key words FDI MNC Technical Spillover Effect R&D?CR4WFJ0JA3- ,A .41.1 %+| .41.2 )5,F .4 FDI_F$x,*6Av .62.1 FDI_F$,& .62.2 FDI_F$x,+OFD .63 FDI_F$,3P .83.1 LF-1J/C( .83.2D-( .9A-EJ FDI_F$x,A6 .94.1 FDI+O_F$,& .94.2 FDI_F$,FD .104.3 ) FDI_F$,AG6 . 114.4 FDIXE|J+O_F$x,) .131JF9xY+XD-(_$*,1+ .175.1 HFJ44 , u6U FDI ,JVx .175.24*1JLFv*0H+6- .175.3 D-( R&D #k,&h .175.4 KFP8,fKJ) .186.5B .1869)d .198*BX .21?CR4WFJ0JA4A FDI_F$)LF-EJ,A1.1 %+|FDI _F$x_7D-(XLF-$CtEC_F+O,F!6J Q?/Y,J!Q_F$xv_:F .D0,-,k?X1 FDI,f,FZ!?,*6Av5$ (Caves, 1974)i_)1J,=|J,J+aD-(,j|FF!Ct$G5i(2)+aD-(=,1F/j93xj%1J$9x+X)9Ct$_x),Q (3)+a1 Q/1yD-(,F6_E0+,FO55$989 (Findlay, 1978)1y656_,F$xE1 Kokko, A. 1994, Technology, market Characteristics and Spillovers. 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QAitken Harrison(1999) Dimelis Louri(2002)w7*?1J$7-u6 FDI_F$xW1J7-491DX0Qx):4:U,J5k?-Lu1,f6&7-jUM0,+O_1*64P3.2D-(3.2.1 D-(Lb!_F$,nAD-(!_*xF,_1*6:UK0$PF7-XLF-92jHNvJ&L$1JF|1!D-(08=o(9,.ACtF$,1)f61JE_6|,F?Fa5_F$& 14.1.2 FG&A-E|JhEFCt,M_2j_G?)9_,EFM&G&,-FEJ,(!2jM0r)E#Ci,4/Lf8Ct1J+O,EEX-2j:9o1:,H8k0,E1Ji#1Faj FDI_F$KFP9Y,FG&4.2 FDI_F$,FD4.2.1 Q/xEJ_0ZQF5W,JM0?_2jM0r:,1503_F65#5EF0E0;6F65_,+aD_98k07-,K0!N-F+|:+0ZEfFP1J,0G-5 Q/,FJE Q/F!9_:,8kW=!j0=Q8D,W7-p9k#qEv4G-X=6,p Q/xf_A-E|Jhf FDI_F$,G?FD4.2.2 63+xEJ_6WMhj,|JFvCtE1JF-FEM&G&J,k?-&)FCt1JM&G&-F,?rFCt1JFJE65?jM&G&+O1J_CXGf)AFJE)M&G&,CXG_DDZ)M&G&+O1J,A4Q-v,CXGfd1*6d)08Ct1JG,M&G&v4.2.3 #qx,#q(_Q41*6_1*6,#q_$*,0ZG?FDGp.D-(,)AL0;$!G-?-NxAJXD-1JF8Ct1JF|Ct,03_F/CtL-p,#qF-1J+O$*x+a-8Ct1Jk,8k1P(a) 2006 FDI,_F$jfLN 58-),.D0A?CR4WFJ0JA11.D,1JAnv_D-(Ct$,03_$*_-E1JKC,G?3P0 14.3 ) FDI_F$,AG6XAG Q,*0:OH)5H 2001,#F9EJkl 7sjGGGG_EJkCt x17sEJw6| x27EJlkCt) x3EJkCtFvCtpG x4A, Qjuxaxaxaxaay 44332211 4.1QXjNGG x4+XPFvCt1J,_F$x ,9x4,3+Alj!D7-FJEn:WPI FDI )E|JX_F$VIa=XF$x 26 4.1?,TE6)44332211 lnlnlnlnln xaxaxaxaay 4.21P(a) 2006 FDI,_F$jfLN 58-),.D0A2)5 2001Fv-$Ct_E0+x6G4#_4#.D01O?CR4WFJ0JA12n 4.1 1992-2004 vVg,6-Y X1 X2 X3 X41992 11910523 10087821 1848652 0.294129426 0.0958571993 17920016 15203242 1932575 0.265028472 0.1128171994 21830978 20985156 1968831 0.245676372 0.1406511995 25308668 27265812 1952542 0.198321510 0.1718151996 23990941 31861521 1950627 0.180829534 0.1792721997 26686935 40062091 1978091 0.148306937 0.2083631998 27873135 47299932 1962837 0.139819947 0.2059021999 31227177 44155716 1806815 0.169614031 0.2527042000 36125577 53022769 1781326 0.162960369 0.2184622001 44331852 57111426 1505507 0.184823419 0.2412402002 62246394 65590768 1570540 0.241611853 0.2238282003 83571570 76464234 1604558 0.281617154 0.2384172004 94631639 88656864 1693126 0.246766421 0.243590Ct$-EJJ-E5AH 2005B$EJkCt x1 _+X*Ctl#qCtwN|Jw6| x2+X6|/ x4|JFvkCt5$_%vCt1JFvCt1J,*Ctlq#qCtwN+X eviews5.0E&)F|4*64321 ln04.0ln98.0ln32.0ln99.089.2ln xxxxy 4.3 4.0994 0.9485 0.2571 0.1083 0.2233 0.5008 0.0000 0.2528 0.0000 0.8615B3, R2=0.992685 DW=2.766821 F=408.1365:,5-;*, R2=0.992685, F=408.1365 QkxJv+a x x4X5A:w=n:p x x x x4?CR4WFJ0JA13L$7-XJG4W!QLG,045; :12.23ln12.2ln44.1ln 43 xxy 4.4 0.2300 0.1865 0.5840 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000B3, R2=0.93 F=64.73 QxJ 4.4?B$XE|J FDI 2.12Z,6&+Ok=a?Z,6&DFvXEN,-$Ct_$*xW?,G x4X5A:_n:,3+j 2.12,?D-(,Ct)ZE|J+O_F$x4.4 FDIXE|J+O_F$x,)_F$)0)-4#,CQ)FEJ)-Jkl GDPY0kN,CQ)F5EJkllY0kN5)l-()Gw:wEFOK0f,$E#- 1991, 726:w 2004, 9134sA1L$49DC?,Lf!? 4.3?CR4WFJ0JA14n 4.3 1991-2004 VW,6- EJkl(s-Jkl,GEJlsEJl- GDP,Y0kNsY0-j|JG %K0fs1991 704.5 2.49 170.1 0.79 74 19.9 726.81992 1191.1 3.21 296.7 1.11 133.2 40.3 1187.41993 1792 3.4 402.9 1.16 178.8 22.6 1834.31994 2183.1 2.84 515.5 1.1 135.7 15.9 1853.51995 2216.5 2.25 540.7 0.92 226.8 26.8 2175.11996 2399.1 2.41 576.2 0.85 211 26.2 2330.41997 2668.7 2.35 594.1 0.8 232.7 26.5 26351998 2787.3 4.11 661.3 0.84 226 25.1 2742.51999 3122.7 4.29 784.9 0.91 318.5 28.1 3114.72000 3612.6 4.22 864 0.97 402.4 27.7 3560.42001 4433.2 4.64 1055.6 1.08 502.1 29.8 4253.72002 6224.6 5.62 1518.8 1.44 752 41.1 5947.72003 8357.2 5.87 2153.4 1.83 1032.8 39.2 8144.12004 9463.2 5.05 2187.8 1.6 1063.6 35.2 9134.3Ct$-EJJ-E5AH 2005F) 3.1,0;6EJ,kl+a 1991, 704.15s 2004, 9466.3swuj 23.47%EJ-Jkl,G+a 1991 , 2.49% 2004 , 5.05%wK 7%EJl+a 1991 , 107.1 s 2004 , 2187.8sx=0cK 1992,u0Qj 74.42 19950 1997L8# 7%; 1998-2003L$ 11.3%w 41.8% 2004PL8# 1.6%f:F B$EJCA8Ct,FD*)FOK6|J, FDI+O_F$k?)X_EAE*1*6(|O+X:_F$)EJ+O)l,QFDI 8Ct?F-V5EJ,0NDC?,_+O)l,Q? 4.4n 4.4 1991-2004 VWtD%y Kkv- +O)l- +O)l1991 10214 1998 336141992 16396 1999 456231993 21058 2000 536351994 26312 2001 692691995 27419 2002 963421996 29654 2003 1343011997 29831 2004 130451Ct$ : -EJJ-E5AH (2005)i 3.2,A1*A-A-EJ,+O)w! 51722.79sF_-|JLE,_F$)9E+O1J+O? Q,QFDI 8Ct?F-E|J!ZE+O1J,wGFQ ( 4.5)-ZE+O1J,wG+a 1991, 5907E 2004, 43337EOL$!Z1Jw+OE 17858Ej)?Q4#x,?&?CR4WFJ0JA16n 4.5 1991-2004 VDcvVDO%yy- E+O1JZ G E+O1JwG1991 120 708820 59071992 124 106172 85621993 124 1296778 104581994 122 1353368 110931995 122 1452737 119081996 122 1474905 120891997 119 1582628 132991998 119 1627829 136791999 118 1838596 155222000 118 2068186