公司理财规划.ppt

Chapter7 EquityMarketsandStockValuation 0 KeyConceptsandSkills UnderstandhowstockpricesdependonfuturedividendsanddividendgrowthBeabletocomputestockpricesusingthedividendgrowthmodelUnderstandhowcorporatedirectorsareelectedUnderstandhowstockmarketsworkUnderstandhowstockpricesarequoted 1 ChapterOutline CommonStockValuationSomeFeaturesofCommonandPreferredStocksTheStockMarkets 2 CashFlowstoStockholders Ifyoubuyashareofstock youcanreceivecashintwowaysThecompanypaysdividendsYousellyourshareseithertoanotherinvestorinthemarketorbacktothecompanyAswithbonds thepriceofthestockisthepresentvalueoftheseexpectedcashflows 3 One PeriodExample SupposeyouarethinkingofpurchasingthestockofMooreOil Inc andyouexpectittopaya 2dividendinoneyearandyoubelievethatyoucansellthestockfor 14atthattime Ifyourequireareturnof20 oninvestmentsofthisrisk whatisthemaximumyouwouldbewillingtopay ComputethePVoftheexpectedcashflowsPrice 14 2 1 2 13 33OrFV 16 I Y 20 N 1 CPTPV 13 33 4 Two PeriodExample Now whatifyoudecidetoholdthestockfortwoyears Inadditiontothedividendinoneyear youexpectadividendof 2 10andastockpriceof 14 70bothattheendofyear2 Nowhowmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay PV 2 1 2 2 10 14 70 1 2 2 13 33OrCF0 0 C01 2 F01 1 C02 16 80 F02 1 NPV I 20 CPTNPV 13 33 5 Three PeriodExample Finally whatifyoudecidetoholdthestockforthreeperiods Inadditiontothedividendsattheendofyears1and2 youexpecttoreceiveadividendof 2 205attheendofyear3andastockpriceof 15 435 Nowhowmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay PV 2 1 2 2 10 1 2 2 2 205 15 435 1 2 3 13 33OrCF0 0 C01 2 F01 1 C02 2 10 F02 1 C03 17 64 F03 1 NPV I 20 CPTNPV 13 33 6 DevelopingTheModel YoucouldcontinuetopushbackwhenyouwouldsellthestockYouwouldfindthatthepriceofthestockisreallyjustthepresentvalueofallexpectedfuturedividendsSo howcanweestimateallfuturedividendpayments 7 EstimatingDividends SpecialCases ConstantdividendThefirmwillpayaconstantdividendforeverThisislikepreferredstockThepriceiscomputedusingtheperpetuityformulaConstantdividendgrowthThefirmwillincreasethedividendbyaconstantpercenteveryperiodSupernormalgrowthDividendgrowthisnotconsistentinitially butsettlesdowntoconstantgrowtheventually 8 ZeroGrowth Ifdividendsareexpectedatregularintervalsforever thenthisislikepreferredstockandisvaluedasaperpetuityP0 D RSupposestockisexpectedtopaya 0 50dividendeveryquarterandtherequiredreturnis10 withquarterlycompounding Whatistheprice P0 50 1 4 50 025 20 9 DividendGrowthModel Dividendsareexpectedtogrowataconstantpercentperperiod P0 D1 1 R D2 1 R 2 D3 1 R 3 P0 D0 1 g 1 R D0 1 g 2 1 R 2 D0 1 g 3 1 R 3 Withalittlealgebra thisreducesto 10 DGM Example1 SupposeBigD Inc justpaidadividendof 50 Itisexpectedtoincreaseitsdividendby2 peryear Ifthemarketrequiresareturnof15 onassetsofthisrisk howmuchshouldthestockbesellingfor P0 50 1 02 15 02 3 92 11 DGM Example2 SupposeTBPirates Inc isexpectedtopaya 2dividendinoneyear Ifthedividendisexpectedtogrowat5 peryearandtherequiredreturnis20 whatistheprice P0 2 2 05 13 33Whyisn tthe 2inthenumeratormultipliedby 1 05 inthisexample 12 StockPriceSensitivitytoDividendGrowth g D1 2 R 20 13 StockPriceSensitivitytoRequiredReturn R D1 2 g 5 14 Example7 3GordonGrowthCompany I GordonGrowthCompanyisexpectedtopayadividendof 4nextperiodanddividendsareexpectedtogrowat6 peryear Therequiredreturnis16 Whatisthecurrentprice P0 4 16 06 40Rememberthatwealreadyhavethedividendexpectednextyear sowedon tmultiplythedividendby1 g 15 Example7 3 GordonGrowthCompanyII Whatisthepriceexpectedtobeinyear4 P4 D4 1 g R g D5 R g P4 4 1 06 4 16 06 50 50Whatistheimpliedreturngiventhechangeinpriceduringthefouryearperiod 50 50 40 1 return 4 return 6 PV 40 FV 50 50 N 4 CPTI Y 6 Thepricegrowsatthesamerateasthedividends 16 NonconstantGrowthProblemStatement Supposeafirmisexpectedtoincreasedividendsby20 inoneyearandby15 intwoyears Afterthat dividendswillincreaseatarateof5 peryearindefinitely Ifthelastdividendwas 1andtherequiredreturnis20 whatisthepriceofthestock RememberthatwehavetofindthePVofallexpectedfuturedividends 17 NonconstantGrowth ExampleSolution Computethedividendsuntilgrowthlevelsoff 呈平稳状态 D1 1 1 2 1 20D2 1 20 1 15 1 38D3 1 38 1 05 1 449FindtheexpectedfuturepriceP2 D3 R g 1 449 2 05 9 66FindthepresentvalueoftheexpectedfuturecashflowsP0 1 20 1 2 1 38 9 66 1 2 2 8 67 18 QuickQuiz Part1 Whatisthevalueofastockthatisexpectedtopayaconstantdividendof 2peryeariftherequiredreturnis15 Whatifthecompanystartsincreasingdividendsby3 peryear beginningwiththenextdividend Therequiredreturnstaysat15 19 UsingtheDGMtoFindR StartwiththeDGM 20 FindingtheRequiredReturn Example Supposeafirm sstockissellingfor 10 50 Theyjustpaida 1dividendanddividendsareexpectedtogrowat5 peryear Whatistherequiredreturn R 1 1 05 10 50 05 15 Whatisthedividendyield 1 1 05 10 50 10 Whatisthecapitalgainsyield g 5 21 Table7 1 22 FeaturesofCommonStock VotingRightsProxyvotingClassesofstockOtherRightsShareproportionallyindeclareddividendsShareproportionallyinremainingassetsduringliquidationPreemptiveright firstshotatnewstockissuetomaintainproportionalownershipifdesired 23 DividendCharacteristics DividendsarenotaliabilityofthefirmuntiladividendhasbeendeclaredbytheBoardConsequently afirmcannotgobankruptfornotdeclaringdividendsDividendsandTaxesDividendpaymentsarenotconsideredabusinessexpense therefore theyarenottax deductibleDividendsreceivedbyindividualshavehistoricallybeentaxedasordinaryincomeDividendsreceivedbycorporationshaveaminimum70 exclusionfromtaxableincome 24 FeaturesofPreferredStock DividendsStateddividendthatmustbepaidbeforedividendscanbepaidtocommonstockholdersDividendsarenotaliabilityofthefirmandpreferreddividendscanbedeferredindefinitelyMostpreferreddividendsarecumulative anymissedpreferreddividendshavetobepaidbeforecommondividendscanbepaidPreferredstockdoesnotgenerallycarryvotingrights 25 StockMarket Dealersvs BrokersNewYorkStockExchange NYSE MembersOperatio