公司理财精要Chap009ppt课件.ppt

Copyright 2011bytheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved McGraw Hill Irwin IMPORTANT InordertoviewthecorrectcalculatorkeystrokesymbolswithinthisPPT youwillneedtofollowthefontinstallationdirectionsonthisdocument 9 1 KeyConceptsandSkills Understandhowto DeterminetherelevantcashflowsforaproposedinvestmentAnalyzeaproject sprojectedcashflowsEvaluateanestimatedNPV 9 2 ChapterOutline 9 1ProjectCashFlows AFirstLook9 2IncrementalCashFlows9 3ProFormaFinancialStatementsandProjectCashFlows9 4MoreonProjectCashFlows9 5EvaluatingNPVEstimates9 6ScenarioandOtherWhat IfAnalyses9 7AdditionalConsiderationsinCapitalBudgeting 9 3 RelevantCashFlows IncludeonlycashflowsthatwillonlyoccuriftheprojectisacceptedIncrementalcashflows 增量现金流 Thestand aloneprincipleallowsustoanalyzeeachprojectinisolationfromthefirmsimplybyfocusingonincrementalcashflows 9 4 RelevantCashFlows IncrementalCashFlowforaProject CorporatecashflowwiththeprojectMinusCorporatecashflowwithouttheproject 9 5 RelevantCashFlows Sunk Costs NOpportunityCosts YSideEffects Erosion YNetWorkingCapital YFinancingCosts NTaxEffects Y 9 6 ProFormaStatementsandCashFlow ProFormaFinancialStatementsProjectsfutureoperationsOperatingCashFlow OCF EBIT Depr TaxesOCF NI DeprifnointerestexpenseCashFlowFromAssets CFFA OCF NCS NWCNCS Netcapitalspending 9 7 SharkAttractantProject Estimatedsales50 000cansSalesPricepercan 4 00Costpercan 2 50Estimatedlife3yearsFixedcosts 12 000 yearInitialequipmentcost 90 000100 depreciatedover3yearlifeInvestmentinNWC 20 000Taxrate34 Costofcapital20 9 8 ProFormaIncomeStatementTable9 1 9 9 ProjectedCapitalRequirementsTable9 2 NFAdeclinesbytheamountofdepreciationeachyearInvestment bookoraccountingvalue notmarketvalue 9 10 ProjectedTotalCashFlowsTable9 5 Note InvestmentinNWCisrecoveredinfinalyearEquipmentcostisacashoutflowinyear0 9 11 SharkAttractantProject OCF EBIT Depreciation TaxesOCF NetIncome Depreciation ifnointerest 9 12 DisplayYouEnter C00110000S C0151780 F012 C0271780 F021 I20 NPV 10647 69 25 76 CashFlows CF0 110000CF1 51780CF2 51780CF3 71780 ComputingNPVfortheProjectUsingtheTIBAII CFWorksheet 9 13 MakingTheDecision Shouldweacceptorrejecttheproject 9 14 TheTaxShieldApproachtoOCF OCF Sales costs 1 T Deprec TOCF 200 000 137 000 x66 30 000 x 34 OCF 51 780Particularlyusefulwhenthemajorincrementalcashflowsarethepurchaseofequipmentandtheassociateddepreciationtaxshieldi e choosingbetweentwodifferentmachines 9 15 ChangesinNWC GAAPrequirements Salesrecordedwhenmade notwhencashisreceivedCashin Sales ARCostofgoodssoldrecordedwhenthecorrespondingsalesaremade whethersupplierspaidyetornotCashout COGS APBuyinventory materialstosupportsalesbeforeanycashcollected 9 16 Depreciation CapitalBudgeting UsetheschedulerequiredbytheIRSfortaxpurposesDepreciation non cashexpenseOnlyrelevantduetotaxaffectsDepreciationtaxshield DTD depreciationexpenseT marginaltaxrate 9 17 ComputingDepreciation Straight linedepreciationD Initialcost salvage numberofyearsStraightLine SalvageValueMACRSDepreciate 0RecoveryPeriod ClassLife1 2YearConventionMultiplypercentageintablebytheinitialcost 9 18 After TaxSalvage Ifthesalvagevalueisdifferentfromthebookvalueoftheasset thenthereisataxeffectBookvalue initialcost accumulateddepreciationAfter taxsalvage salvage T salvage bookvalue 9 19 TaxEffectonSalvage NetSalvageCashFlow SP SP BV T Where SP SellingPriceBV BookValueT Corporatetaxrate 9 20 Example DepreciationandAfter taxSalvage Carpurchasedfor 12 0005 yearpropertyMarginaltaxrate 34 9 21 SalvageValue TaxEffects NetSalvageCashFlow SP SP BV T IfsoldatEOY5for 3 000 NSCF 3 000 3000 691 20 34 2 215 01 3 000 784 99 2 215 01IfsoldatEOY2for 4 000 NSCF 4 000 4000 5 760 34 4 598 40 4 000 598 40 4 598 40 9 22 MajesticMulch CompostCo GivenDataandProjectedRevenues Table9 9 9 23 MajesticMulch CompostCo DepreciationandAfter TaxSalvage Table9 10 9 24 MajesticMulch CompostCo NetWorkingCapital Table9 12 9 25 MajesticMulch CompostCo MMCProFormaIncomeStatements 9 26 MajesticMulch CompostCo MMCProjectedCashFlows Table9 14 9 27 EvaluatingNPVEstimates NPVestimatesareonlyestimatesForecastingrisk SensitivityofNPVtochangesincashflowestimatesThemoresensitive thegreatertheforecastingriskSourcesofvalueBeabletoarticulatewhythisprojectcreatesvalue 9 28 ScenarioAnalysis Examinesseveralpossiblesituations WorstcaseBasecaseormostlikelycaseBestcaseProvidesarangeofpossibleoutcomes 9 29 ScenarioAnalysisExample Note Lower Worst Upper Best 9 30 ScenarioAnalysisExample 9 31 ProblemswithScenarioAnalysis Considersonlyafewpossibleout comesAssumesperfectlycorrelatedinputsAll bad valuesoccurtogetherandall good valuesoccurtogetherFocusesonstand alonerisk althoughsubjectiveadjustmentscanbemade 9 32 SensitivityAnalysis ShowshowchangesinaninputvariableaffectNPVorIRREachvariableisfixedexceptoneChangeonevariabletoseetheeffectonNPVorIRRAnswers whatif questions 9 33 SensitivityAnalysis UnitSales 9 34 SensitivityAnalysis FixedCosts 9 35 SensitivityAnalysis StrengthsProvidesindicationofstand alonerisk Identifiesdangerousvariables Givessomebreakeveninformation WeaknessesDoesnotreflectdiversification Saysnothingaboutthelikelihoodofchangeinavariable Ignoresrelationshipsamongvariables 9 36 DisadvantagesofSensitivityandScenarioAnalysis Neitherprovidesadecisionrule Noindicationwhetheraproject sexpectedreturnissufficienttocompensateforitsrisk Ignoresdiversification Measuresonlystand alonerisk whichmaynotbethemostrelevantriskincapitalbudgeting 9 37 ManagerialOptions ContingencyplanningOptiontoexpandExpansionof