lesson-8-Seeing-the-back-of-the-car

Seeing the back of the car 看看汽车业的未来看看汽车业的未来 In the rich world people seem to be driving less than they used to 在西方富有世界 人们似乎不像以前那样频繁驾车出行了 在西方富有世界 人们似乎不像以前那样频繁驾车出行了 Sep 22nd 2012 from the print edition 1 I LL love and protect this car until death do us part says Toad a 17 year old loser whose life is briefly transformed by a super fine 1958 Chevy Impala in American Graffiti The film follows him his friends and their vehicles through a late summer night in early 1960s California cruising the main drag racing on the back streets and necking in back seats of machines which embody not just speed prosperity and freedom but also adulthood status and sex 一名 17 岁的失败者 图德说 我将会爱护 这辆车并且保护它 一直到死亡把我们分开 为止 他的生活由于 美国风情画 中的一辆 1958 年的超精细雪佛兰羚羊而完全改变了 这部电影带着他 他的朋友们和他们的车穿 越到了二十世纪六十年代加州 一个夏天的 夜晚 快而平衡地穿过那里的主要街道 在 破旧的街巷中飙车 在汽车后座位上拥吻 这辆车体现的不仅仅是速度 财富和自由 还有成年的宣告 社会地位和性关系的成熟 2 The movie was set in an age when owning wheels was a norm deeply desired and newly achievable Since then car ownership has grown apace There are now more than 1 billion cars in the world and the number is likely to roughly double by 2020 They are cheaper faster safer and more comfortable than ever before 当时这部电影的制作背景是 拥有辆车的 深深渴望和它代表的一种新型的成就 从那 时起 汽车保有量是益增长 全世界现在的 汽车数量超过了 10 亿辆 到 2020 年这个 数字大概会翻一翻 相比于以前 现在的汽 车更便宜 速度更快 配置更安全 而且更 加舒适 3 Cars are integral to modern life They account for 70 of all journeys not made on foot in the OECD which includes most developed countries In the European Union more than 12m people work in manufacturing and services related to cars and other vehicles around 6 of the total employed population the equivalent figure for America is 4 5 of private sector employment or 8m jobs They dominate household economies too aside from rent or mortgage payments transport costs are the single biggest weekly outlay and most of those costs normally come from cars 汽车已成为现代生活不可或缺的一部分 经 合组织 包括了大部分发展国家 调查显示 非徒步旅行者中有 70 的人选择了汽车出行 在欧盟 超过 1200 万人在汽车及其他车辆 相关的制造和服务行业中工作 占了整个就 业人口的 6 美国从事类似行业的人数达 到了 800 百 占了私人企业就业率的 4 5 他们也是家庭经济的主要支出 除了 支付房租或者抵押贷款 交通开支是家庭的 周最大单一开支 而且这些开支的大部分都 来自于汽车 4 Nearly 60m new cars were added to the world s stock in 2011 People in Asia Latin America and Africa are buying cars pretty much as fast as they can afford to and as more can afford to more will buy 2011 年 全世界股市有近 6000 万辆新车加 入 在亚洲 拉丁美洲和非洲 人们只要能 负担得起就会马上买车 当他们的购买力越 来越高时 购买的人也会越来越多 5 But in the rich world the car s previously inexorable rise is stalling A growing body of academics cite the possibility that both car ownership and vehicle kilometres driven may be reaching saturation in developed countries or even be on the wane a notion known as peak car 但是在富裕世界 以前汽车销售上的猛升趋 势正在跌停 越来越多的学者都有引证一种 可能性 即发达国家的汽车保有量和行驶里 程数可能都会达到饱和 或者甚至会慢慢减 少 一种被称为 汽车峰值 的现象 6 Recession and high fuel prices have markedly cut distances driven in many countries since 2008 including America Britain France and Sweden But more profound and longer run changes underlie recent trends Most forecasts still predict that when the recovery comes people will drive as much and in the same way as they ever have But that may not be true 从 2008 年起 经济衰退和高油价明显得减 少了许多国家私家车的行驶里程数 包括美 国 英国 法国和瑞典 但是最近的趋势是 由于更多的深层次和长期的变化造成的 大 多的预报仍旧预示着 当经济慢慢恢复时 人们会像以前一样 频繁地使用汽车 但是 这些预测只是预测罢了 7 As a general trend car ownership and kilometres travelled have been increasing throughout the rich world since the 1950s Short term factors like the 1970s oil price shock caused temporary dips but vehicle use soon recovered 作为总趋势 从二十世纪五十年代以来 所 有富裕国家的汽车保有量和行驶公里数一直 在上升 类似二十世纪七十年代石油价格危 机的短期危机引起的临时减少 但是车辆的 使用情况恢复得很快 8 The current fall in car use has doubtless been exacerbated by recession But it seems to have started before the crisis A March 2012 study for the Australian government which has been at the forefront of international efforts to tease out peak car issues suggested that 20 countries in the rich world show a saturating trend to vehicle kilometres travelled After decades when each individual was on average travelling farther every year growth per person has slowed distinctly and in many cases stopped 最近汽车使用方面的下降无疑由于经济衰 退而加剧了 但是这个情况似乎在危机以前 就开始了 2012 年 3 月对澳大利亚政府的 研究显示 澳政府在整理汽车最高使用量方 面已经走在了国际各方努力前沿 在富有 世界的 20 个国家 行驶公里数已趋于饱和 数十年后 每个人汽车的年均行驶里程将会 更多 购买汽车的个人也会逐渐放缓 而且 在许多方面将会完全停止 altogether 9 There are different measures of saturation total distance driven distance per driver and total trips made The statistics are striking on each of these counts even in America still the most car mad country in the world There total vehicle kilometres travelled began to plateau in 2004 and fall from 2007 measured per person growth flatlined sooner after 2000 and dropped after 2004 before recovering somewhat see chart The number of trips has fallen mostly because of a decline in commuting and shopping of the non virtual variety 衡量是否达到饱和 还有些不同的检查方法 总行驶距离 平远行驶里程和总旅次 各国 这些数据的统计 甚至美国 这个仍旧是世 界上最大的汽车制造国 都令人震惊 在 美国 总的车辆行驶公里数在 2004 年达到 平衡期 从 2007 年开始下跌 以人均算 从 2000 年后行驶里程数增长很快 但是 2004 年后开始降低 直到前几些才有所恢 复 总旅次一直在下降 大多由于上下班往 返和 非虚拟用品 购物次数的减少 10 Britain another nation that measures such things obsessively has a similar arc Kilometres travelled per person were stable or falling through most of the 2000s Total traffic has not increased for a decade despite a growing population For the past 15 years Britons have been making fewer journeys they now go out in cars only slightly more often than in the 1970s Pre recession declines in per person travel were also recorded in France Spain Italy Australia New Zealand and Belgium 另一个测量这些让人困扰的数值的国家 英 国的情况和美国类似 人均行驶里程以前很 稳定 或者在 2000 年间的大部分时间在下 跌 尽管人口在增长 但是过去十年间的总 流量没有增长 过去 15 年间 英国人几乎 都不怎么旅行了 相比于二十世纪七十年代 他们的驾车出行量只是略有增长 法国 西 班牙 澳大利亚 新西兰和比利时这些国家 经济衰退前的个人出行同样也是如此 11 Saturation of car ownership over time is one explanation The current cohort of retirees Toad from American Graffiti having faked his death in Vietnam is now 67 is the first in which most people drove So more retired people drive now than ever before In Britain 79 of people in their 60s hold licences which is higher than the figure for the driving age population as a whole in America more than 90 of people aged 60 64 can drive a larger share than for any other cohort New generations of drivers will replace old ones rather than add to the total number 随着时间的推移 汽车保有量的饱和也是原 因之一 目前退役的汽车都是世界上的首批 产品 美国风情画中 在越南假死的 terry 现在已经 67 岁了 大部分人都驾驶过 现 在驾驶汽车的退休人员比以往任何时候都多 在英国 79 的人在他们 60 多岁时才拿到 他们的驾照 这个数字比作为整体的驾龄人 口数字都高 在美国 60 64 岁的人口中超 过 90 的人都开车 在全部驾车人数中 占 的份额比其他年龄段的驾车人数都多 新一 代的驾车人员将会取代那些老司机 而不是 增加驾车人员的总数 12 Then there is a second trend All over the rich world young people are getting their licences later than they used to in America see chart and also in Britain Canada France Norway South Korea and Sweden Even in Germany car culture vulture of Europe the share of young households without cars increased from 20 to 28 between 1998 and 2008 Unsurprisingly this goes along with driving less American youngsters with jobs drive less far and less often than before the recession 16 to 34 year olds in American households with incomes over 70 000 increased their public transport use by 100 from 2001 to 2009 according to the Frontier Group a think tank 届时也有另一个趋势 在富裕的世界里 年 轻人们拿到他们驾照的时间比以前的同龄人 晚 在美国是这样 在英国 加拿大 法国 挪威 韩国和瑞典都是如此 甚至在德国 欧洲的汽车文化秃鹰 无汽车的年轻家庭从 1998 年的 20 增加到了 2008 年的 28 意料之中的是 伴随着这种现象的还有驾车 频率的减少 相比于经济衰退前 美国在职 年轻人的行驶里程和驾车次数都在减少 根 据一家咨询机构 美国先锋集团的研究 从 2001 年到 2009 年 年收入超过 70 000 美 元的美国家庭中 16 34 岁的家庭成员在公 共交通的使用上增长了 100 13 Cost is one factor fuel prices have risen for all insurance premiums for the young have soared Youth unemployment has not helped But there is also the influence of a new kid on the block the internet A University of Michigan survey of 15 countries found that in areas where a lot of young people use the internet fewer than normal have driving licences A global survey of teen attitudes by TNS a consultancy found that young people increasingly view cars as appliances not aspirations and say that social media give them the access to their world that would once have been associated with cars KCR a research firm has found that in America far more 18 to 34 year olds than any other age group say socialising online is a substitute for some car trips 花费是其中一个因素 所有的燃油价格都在 上涨 年轻人的保险费用全面飙升 年轻人 的失业问题仍没有缓解 但是 还有一个新 生事物也对此产生了影响 因特网 密西安 大学对 15 个国家的调查显示 在这些地方 大部分年轻人都有使用互联网 除了正常的 驾车人员有驾照外 几乎没人申请 由一家 咨询机构 特恩斯市场研究咨询对全球年轻 人态度的调查发现 越来越多的年轻人认为 汽车只是个家用电器 购买欲望已经没有以 前那么强烈了 这份调查还表示 社交媒体 的普及让他们更容易进入这个曾经一度与汽 车密不可分的世界 一家市场研究公司 KCR 对美国不同年龄段人调查发现 认为 社交网络可以替代汽车出行的人中 18 34 年龄段的人最多 14 Even without changing absolute numbers however age can still play a role in patterns of use Though more older people drive than used to per person they also tend to drive less And so if people keep getting their licences later may 然而 甚至在绝对数值不发生变化的情况下 年龄仍旧在汽车使用中占有重点的作用 虽 然现在开车的老年人比以前多 但是他们人 均行驶里程却也在减少 同理 如果人们申 请驾照的年龄越来越大 那么人均行驶里程 也会减少 根据牛津大学的乔登 斯图克的 everyone else The later people pass their test the less far they drive even once they can according to Gordon Stokes of Oxford University He says people in Britain who learn in their late 20s drive 30 less than those who learn a decade earlier 发现 人们越迟通过驾驶测试 那么就算他 们可以 他们的行驶里程也会越少 他认为 现在的英国人中 在他们近三十岁学习驾驶 的人比十年前同龄学驾驶的人少了 30 15 Geography matters too In most rich countries car use has been stable or increasing in rural areas where driving still offers freedom and convenience It is in cities especially their centres that car ownership and use is declining And city living is on the rise the OECD a rich country think tank expects that by 2050 86 of the rich world s population will live in urban areas up from 77 in 2010 地理也很重要 在大部分富有国家里 农村 地区汽车的使用一直保持稳定甚至在增长 因为在那里 开车出行仍旧让人们感觉到自 由和方便 而在城市里 特别是市中心 汽 车的保有量和使用正在下降 而且城市生活 水准却在上升 经合组织 一个富有国家的 智库 预计到 2050 年 富有国家人口的 85 将居住在城镇 相比于 2010 年上升了 77 16 In America the share of metropolitan residents without a car has grown since the mid 1990s 13 of people in cities of more than 3m people have no car while only 6 in rural areas live without one In London car ownership has been falling since 1990 with a plateau from 1995 to 2005 the percentage of households without cars has been growing since 1992 In other British cities the proportion of carless households has been growing since 2005 Car use has fallen in many European cities 在美国 自从二十世纪九十年代以来 城市 居民中无车一族的比例一直在上升 超过三 百万的城市居民没有买车 占城市总人口的 13 而在农村无车一族只占 6 在伦敦 自 1990 年以来 汽车保有量一直在减少 从 1995 年到 2005 年进入了停滞期 从 1992 年起 无车家庭的百分比一直在增加 在英国其他城市 自 2005 年起 无车家庭 的比例也在上升 在其他欧盟城市中 汽车 的使用也在下降 17 There are various reasons for this Public mass transit systems are in the main faster and more reliable than they used to be with increased capacity in many cities This partly reflects increased investment particularly in rail For the past 15 years road and rail investment has been about 1 of GDP for OECD countries but rail s share of that has increased from 15 to 23 says the International Transport Forum 产生这种现象的原因很多 主要的原因是 公共运输系统比以前更加快捷 安全可靠 同时在很多城市 运输系统的容量也在增加 这种现象在一定程度上也反映了公共运输投 资的都加 特别是铁路 国际运输论坛认为 在过去 15 年间 经合组织国家中 公路和 铁路总投资约为各国国内生产总值的 1 但是铁路在总投资中的比重从 15 上升到了 23 18 More recently private alternatives to car ownership notably car clubs have been 最近以来 针对拥有汽车的私人替代品 特 别是汽车俱乐部的替代品现在已经遍布北美 spreading across North America and northern Europe By some estimates one rental car can take the place of 15 owned vehicles Zipcar which is the biggest international car share scheme has 700 000 members and over 9 000 vehicles Buzzcar a French company set up by the Zipcar founder has 605 000 members sharing 9 000 cars 和北欧 把一些估计 一辆租赁汽车能够取 代 15 辆自备车 世界上最大的汽车共享系 统 美国网上租车公司拥有 700 000 会员 和超过 9 000 辆车 由该公司创始人在法国 建立的汽车分享公司 布兹卡已经拥有 605 000 个成员 有 9 000 辆车给他们共用 19 Perhaps most basic though is that in terms of urban living the car has become a victim of its own success In 1994 the physicist Cesare Marchetti argued that people budget an average travel time of around one hour getting to work they are unwilling to spend more For decades cars allowed this budget to go farther But as suburbs grow and congestion increases most cities eventually hit a sprawl wall of too long commutes beyond which they will not spread far After that it appears a significant number of people start to move back towards the city centre In America where over 50 of the population lives in suburbs more than half the nation s 51 largest cities are seeing more growth in the core than outside it according to William Frey at the Brookings Institution 只是 可能最基本的原因是 就城市生活而 言 汽车已经成为它自身成功的受害者了 1994 年 物理学家寒萨尔 马尔凯蒂认为 人们把自己的平均出行 即日常活动 时间 控制在一小时左右 他们不愿意再花更多的 时间在这个上面 数十年以来 汽车把人们 的这个时间预算拉长了很多 但是当城镇扩 张 堵塞越来越严重时 大部分的城市最后 终于产生了由于长时间通勤导致的随意扩张 的问题 如果不通勤就不会有这个扩张问题 了 此后 事情又有了变化 相当多的人又 开始搬回到了城市中心 根据布鲁金斯学会 的威廉姆 弗雷的研究 在美国 有超过 50 的人中居住在城镇里 这个国家 51 座 大城市中有一大半 市中心的发展都比它外 围的发展快得多 20 If car use has peaked what are the implications One is that vehicle makers which are already having a tough time will not easily find new markets in the rich world In America available cars already outnumber licensed drivers We are looking at replacement rather than growth in these countries says Yves van der Straaten of the OICA an international trade body of car manufacturers 如果汽车的使用已经达到顶峰 那么它预示 着什么呢 一个 就是车辆制造者们 他们 现在已经进入艰难时期了 在富有国家里 很难再开发出新市场 在美国 汽车的供应 量已经远远超过了有驾照的人 我们正在寻 找新的市场 而并不是期望在这些国家销售 有所增长 全球汽车制造商的贸易组织 世界汽车组织的伊夫 范德 斯特瑞腾如此说 道 21 Some niche and luxury brands are thriving and are likely to keep doing so But manufacturers know that the developing world is the future sales in China overtook 一些特定 豪华品牌正在蓬勃发展期 可能 还会继续这种发展趋势 但是制造商知道 发展中国家才是他们的未来 在中国的汽车 销售已经超过了美国 2010 年到 2011 年的销 those in America between 2010 and 2011 and rose by 2 6 those in Indonesia a younger market jumped by 17 售量 上升了 2 6 而在印度尼西亚 一 个刚开发的年轻市场 销量增长了 17 22 A more radical response from carmakers could be to say that if buyers are less interested in driving then cars will require less driving from them Driverless cars robot guided vehicles that leave their occupants free to text work or sleep could go on sale within the next decade and might meet the mood of the moment They could be safer and a lot less hassle Flocking together through clever algorithms they could cut congestion dramatically They might further strain the already weakening link between driving and identity and the sense of driving as an expression of self and skill But they could still be a highly profitable innovation 有的汽车制造商很激 进 他们可能会说 如果购买者不再对驾驶感兴趣 那么汽车也 不需要他们来开了 无人驾驶汽车 由机 器人引导汽车将会让坐在车里的人自由看书 工作或者睡觉 可能会在未来十年内上市 并且可能会满足那时人们的需要 他们将会 更安全 而且少了很多麻烦 通过聪明的计 算程序进行最终的处理分析 他们可能会明 显减少交通堵塞现象 他们可能会造成驾驶 和身份之间已经脆弱的联系更加紧张 并且 可能会造成表达自我和显示驾驶技术的紧张 感 但是他们仍旧是一个利润非常高的技术 创新 23 The possibility of reaching peak car is most evident in the rich world But emerging world cities may reach a similar state earlier in their development reckons David Metz of University College London 达到 汽车峰值 的可能性在富有国家最明显 但是 据伦敦大学学院的大卫 梅茨估计 新兴世界的城市在他们的发展早期 也可能 会达到一个类似的状态 24 Non OECD countries have higher levels of vehicle ownership now than OECD countries did at similar income levels This is because their transport infrastructure has developed faster than it did in richer countries cars are cheaper in real terms and urbanisation