家乐福为何放弃东南亚？.doc

家乐福为何放弃东南亚？ Carrefourssupermarketsell-off defies growthpotentialWhen a dozen customers are jostling at the till trying to buy the same packet of cornflakes it probably means the price is too low. When a dozen companies are scrambling to buy the supermarket, it probably means someone is selling an asset they ought to be holding onto.如果有十几个客户在收银台前抢着购买同一包玉米片，这可能意味着价格太低了。如果是十几家公司争着抢着收购超市，则可能意味着有人正在出售一项本应持有的资产。This is the message from an extraordinary corporate bunfight going on in south-east Asia, where Carrefour, the worlds second-biggest retailer, has attracted a field of significantly more than 10 bidders for the sale of 61 supermarkets in Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.这是发生在东南亚的一场特殊的公司竞购战所传达出的信息。在那里，全球第二大零售商家乐福(Carrefour)吸引了逾10家公司，竞购其在泰国、马来西亚和新加坡的61家超市。The bidding frenzy raises a number of questions, not least why Lars Olofsson, Carrefours relatively new chief executive, is so keen to bale out of a region in which the company invested $150m only three years ago.这场收购战引发了很多问题，特别是家乐福新任首席执行官罗盛中(Lars Olofsson)为何如此迫切希望撤出该公司3年前刚刚投资了1.5亿美元的地区。Mr Olofsson has said little, hinting only that he wants to concentrate on markets where Carrefour is either the market leader or a strong contender to become so. That would include China, where the group is a leading foreign presence, but not south-east Asia.罗盛中没有多说什么，只是暗示希望把精力集中在家乐福要么是市场领头羊、要么是市场领头羊地位有力竞争者的市场上。这将包括家乐福已经是外国领军企业的中国，但不包括东南亚。Yet Carrefour is woefully under-represented in the worlds fastest growing region, with only 7.8 per cent of consolidated net sales in Asia compared with 79 per cent in Europe. The Asian proportion will decline further with the sale of the south-east Asian stores, which account for 15 per cent of regional sales.然而，悲哀的是，家乐福在这个全球增长最迅速的地区业务规模并不大，亚洲仅占其净销售总额的7.8%，而欧洲为79%。随着占亚洲销售15%的东南亚门店被出售，亚洲比例将继续下滑This seems an odd way to improve the companys growth prospects a point that Mr Olofsson recognised when he coupled the announcement of disappointing first-half results with enthusiastic talk of opening stores in Russia and India.这似乎是改善家乐福增长前景的奇怪方法在宣布令人失望的上半年业绩，同时满怀热情地谈到在俄罗斯和印度开设新店时，罗盛中承认了这点。It is hard to see the logic of simultaneously pulling out of one part of Asia and starting from scratch in another, except as a way of defusing pressure for better short-term results from big shareholders such Bernard Arnault, chairman of LVMH, and Thomas Barrack, chairman of Colony Capital, the US private equity group.家乐福从亚洲一个地方撤出的同时，在另一个地方重起炉灶，我们很难找出其中的逻辑，只能将其看做是为了缓和LVMH董事长伯纳德阿诺德(Bernard Arnault)和美国私人股本集团柯罗尼资本(Colony Capital)董事长托马斯巴拉克(Thomas Barrack)等大股东改善短期业绩的压力。To that extent, the strategy might work. But Mr Olofssons critics might be less impressed if they considered the scale of the opportunity that Carrefour is handing to someone else. Like most of Asia excluding Japan, south-east Asia has returned to blistering economic growth after a short downturn. Thailand has reported year-on-year growth in gross domestic product of 9.1 per cent for the second quarter, following 8.9 per cent in Malaysia, and 17.9 per cent in Singapore.就此而言，该战略可能会奏效。但如果考虑到家乐福拱手相让的机会有多大的规模，这项战略可能不会那么打动罗盛中的批评者。与除日本之外的亚洲多数地区一样，在经历了短暂低迷之后，东南亚已重新恢复快速经济增长。泰国今年第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长9.1%，马来西亚和新加坡分别为8.9%和17.9%。The Asian Development Bank is forecasting 8.1 per cent for emerging east Asia as a whole this year, and 7.2 per cent in 2011. The International Monetary Fund is projecting GDP growth in the advanced economies of just 2.6 per cent in 2010 and 2.4 per cent the following year.亚洲开发银行(ADB)预计，新兴的东亚地区今年将整体增长8.1%，明年将增长7.2%。国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测，发达经济体今年的GDP增速仅为2.6%，明年为2.4%。But it is not just the background environment that contrasts so sharply with Carrefours European base. Beneath the headline figures, Asias renewed growth is being driven by two fundamental changes that point to above average prospects for retailers.但是与家乐福欧洲业务形成鲜明对比的不仅仅是背景环境。在总体数字背后，亚洲的再度增长受到两个根本性转变的推动，预示着零售商的前景将超过平均水平。The first is that the recovery largely reflects a big rise in domestic consumption, marking a significant departure from the traditional export driven model. This shows up strongly in retail sales, currently rising at about 15 per cent year on year double the pre-crisis rate according to HSBCs Asian Real Retail Index.首先，复苏在很大程度上反映了国内消费的大幅增长，标志着亚洲明显脱离了传统的出口驱动型增长模式。这在零售方面得到了明显体现，根据汇丰(HSBC)的亚洲实际零售指数(Asian Real Retail Index)，目前零售业的同比增幅约为15%，是危机前的两倍。The signs are everywhere from the iPhone4 selling like hot cakes in Hanoi to the glossy television ads featuring Taiwanese supermodel Lin Chi-Ling that are helping Mercedes-Benz break sales records in China. Asia is already the biggest and the fastest growing market for products such as mobile communications devices and personal computers.这种迹象随处可见：从iPhone4在河内的热销，到台湾超级名模林志玲代言的炫目电视广告帮助梅塞德斯-奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)打破在中国的销售纪录。对于移动通信设备和个人电脑(PC)等产品，亚洲已成为规模最大、增长最快的市场。But the long-term outlook is even more enticing. The UN is forecasting that 140,000 people a day thats right, a day will flock to Asias cities over the next 40 years, creating large-scale retail demand in addition to the effects of rising incomes. Significantly, many of the bidders for Carrefours assets are Asian companies supermarket operators such as Singapores Dairy Farm and private equity firms such as Malaysias Navis Capital which are experiencing the consumption boom at first hand.但亚洲的长期前景更为诱人。联合国(UN)预计，未来40年，每天（是的，确实是每天）将有14万人涌向亚洲各个城市，除了收入增长效应以外，还将创造大规模的零售需求。值得注意的是，家乐福资产的许多竞购者都是亚洲公司，例如新加坡的牛奶国际(Dairy Farm)等超市经营商，以及马来西亚的Navis Capital等私人股本公司，它们正亲身体验着这轮消费热潮。The big exception is Tesco, the worlds third-largest retailer by sales and the market leader in Thailand, which has clearly seen an opportunity to entrench its position.一个明显的例外是特易购(Tesco)。这家泰国市场的领军企业、销售收入排名世界第三的零售商，显然看到了巩固一个自身地位的机会。In the very short term, the bidding scram