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TheManagerasaDecisionMaker 1 2 LearningObjectives 1 3 LearningObjectives 1 4 TheNatureofManagerialDecisionMaking Decisionmakingisapartofallmanagers job Processbywhichmanagersrespondtoopportunitiesandthreatsbyanalyzingoptions andmakingdecisionsaboutgoalsandcoursesofaction Decision Achoicemadefromavailablealternatives Decisionmaking 1 5 TypesofDecisionMaking 1 6 TypesofDecisionMaking Non ProgrammedDecisionMaking ProgrammedDecisionMaking Routine almostautomaticprocess Therearerulesandguidelinestofollow Unusualsituationsthathavenotbeenoftenaddressed Norulestofollowsincethedecisionisnew 1 7 ExamplesofManagerialDecision MakingSituation Fast foodrestaurant TypeofOrganization ProgrammedDecision Non programmedDecision University Auto maker Determinesupplierstobereordered Identifylocationfornewfranchise Decideifstudentsmeetgraduationrequirements Choosenewacademicprograms Determineunionemployeepayrates Selectnewcardesign 1 8 ManagementLevel DecisionType First line Middle Top Non programmedDecision ProgrammedDecision Thehighmanagementlevelamanageron themorenon programmeddecisionheshouldmake 1 9 DecisionMakingModel TheClassicalModel Listalternatives consequences Rankeachalternativefromlowtohigh Selectbestalternative AssumesallinformationisavailabletomanagerAssumesmanagercanprocessinformationAssumesmanagerknowsthebestfuturecourseoftheorganization Assumption 1 10 DecisionMakingModel TheAdministrativeModel DevelopedbyJamesMarchandHerbertSimon Cognitivelimitationsconstraindecisionmakingability RiskandUncertaintyAmbiguityTimeandcostconstraints Acceptableandsatisfactorydecisionratherthanoptimumone 1 11 LearningObjectives 1 12 StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess Recognizeneedforadecision Frametheproblem Generate assessalternatives Chooseamongalternatives Implementchosenalternative Learnfromfeedback 1 13 StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess Recognizeneedforadecision Generatealternatives Evaluatealternatives Chooseamongalternatives Implementchosenalternative Learnfromfeedback Managersmustfirstrealizethatadecisionmustbemade 1 14 StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess Recognizeneedforadecision Generatealternatives Evaluatealternatives Chooseamongalternatives Implementchosenalternative Learnfromfeedback Managersmustdevelopfeasiblealternativecoursesofaction 1 15 StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess Recognizeneedforadecision Generatealternatives Evaluatealternatives Chooseamongalternatives Implementchosenalternative Learnfromfeedback Whataretheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofeachalternative 1 16 StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess 1 16 Recognizeneedforadecision Generatealternatives Evaluatealternatives Chooseamongalternatives Implementchosenalternative Learnfromfeedback Managersrankalternativesanddecide 1 17 StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess Recognizeneedforadecision Generatealternatives Evaluatealternatives Chooseamongalternatives Implementchosenalternative Learnfromfeedback Managersmustnowcarryoutthealternative 1 18 StepsintheDecisionMakingProcess Recognizeneedforadecision Generatealternatives Evaluatealternatives Chooseamongalternatives Implementchosenalternative Learnfromfeedback Managersshouldconsiderwhatwentrightandwrongwiththedecisionandlearnforthefuture 1 19 LearningObjectives 1 20 Cognitivebiasesareinevitableindecisionmakingprocess DanielKahneman AmosTversky 1 21 PriorHypothesis Representativeness IllusionofControl EscalatingCommitment CognitiveBiases TypicalCognitiveBiasesSource 1 22 PriorHypothesis Representativeness IllusionofControl EscalatingCommitment CognitiveBiases TypicalCognitiveBiasesSource Makedecisionbasedonpriorbelief 1 23 PriorHypothesis Representativeness IllusionofControl EscalatingCommitment CognitiveBiases TypicalCognitiveBiasesSource Makedecisionbasedonsmallsampleorsinglecase 1 24 PriorHypothesis Representativeness IllusionofControl EscalatingCommitment CognitiveBiases TypicalCognitiveBiasesSource Makedecisionbasedonoverestimateability 1 25 PriorHypothesis Representativeness IllusionofControl EscalatingCommitment CognitiveBiases TypicalCognitiveBiasesSource Ignoreadverseevidenceandincreaseinvestment 1 26 LearningObjectives 1 27 GroupDecision 1 28 GroupDecisionMakingMethods ConfirmQuestion Expertsanswerquestionnairesindependently Collectandanalyzequestionnaires Feedbackandanotherroundagain Obtainconsensustosolvequestion DelphiTechnique TheDelphiTechniquewasoriginallyconceivedasawaytoobtaintheopinionofexpertswithoutnecessarilybringingthemtogetherfacetoface MajorSteps 1 29 GroupDecisionMakingMethods NominalGroupTechnique Adecisionmakingmethodforuseamonggroupsofmanysizes whowanttomaketheirdecisionquickly asbyavote butwanteveryone sopinionstakeninto MajorSteps 1 30 GroupDecisionMakingMethods Brainstorming DevelopedbyAlexF Osbornin1953Agroupcreativitytechniquedesignedtogeneratealargenumberofideasforthesolutionofaproblem Focusonquantity Withholdcriticism Welcomeunusualideas Combineandimproveideas BasicRules 1 31 GroupDecisionM
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