凯雷对于金融服务业看法

Overview FinancialServicesIndustry WhatWentWrong WhatDoesitMean P OlivierSarkozyManagingDirector FinancialServicesGroupHeadOctober3 2008 ImportantInformation ThispresentationismadeavailableonaconfidentialbasistosophisticatedinvestorsforthepurposeofprovidingcertaininformationaboutTCGroup L L C anditsaffiliates Carlyle andCarlyle sponsoredinvestmentfunds each a Fund ThispresentationdoesnotconstituteanoffertosellorasolicitationofanoffertopurchaseinterestsinanyFund AnysuchofferorsolicitationshallonlybemadepursuanttoaconfidentialprivateplacementmemorandumofFund whichqualifiesinitsentiretytheinformationsetforthhereinandwhichshouldbereadcarefullypriortoinvestmentinanyFundforadescriptionofthemeritsandrisksofaninvestmentintheFund AninvestmentinaFundentailsahighdegreeofriskandnoassurancecanbegiventhatafund sinvestmentobjectivewillbeachievedorthatinvestorswillreceiveareturnoftheircapital Asusedthroughoutthisdocument andunlessotherwiseindicated grossIRR shallmeananaggregate annual compound grossinternalrateofreturnoninvestments Inthecaseofportfoliosofrealizedandunrealizedinvestments thegrossIRRsarebasedonrealizationsandinternalvaluationsofCarlyleasoftheapplicabledate GrossIRRsdonotreflectmanagementfees carriedinterest taxes transactioncostsandotherexpensestobebornebyinvestorsintheFund whichwillreducereturnsandintheaggregateareexpectedtobesubstantial foradescriptionofsuchmanagementfeesandcarriedinterest pleaseseethefinalconfidentialprivateplacementmemorandum WhileCarlylebelievesthatprojectedreturnsforunrealizedinvestmentsarebasedonassumptionsandvaluationmethodologiesthatarereasonableunderthecircumstances theactualrealizedreturnsonCarlyle sunrealizedinvestmentswilldependon amongotherfactors futureoperatingresults thevalueoftheassetsandmarketconditionsatthetimeofdisposition anyrelatedtransactioncostsandthetimingandmannerofsale allofwhichmaydifferfromtheassumptionsonwhichthevaluationsusedinthepriorperformancedatacontainedhereinarebased Accordingly theactualrealizedreturnontheseunrealizedinvestmentsmaydiffermateriallyfromtheprojectedreturnsindicatedherein InvestorsareencouragedtocontactCarlylerepresentativestodiscusstheproceduresandmethodologiesusedtocalculatetheinvestmentreturnsandotherinformationprovidedherein andmayuponrequestobtainanillustrationoftheeffectoffees expensesandotherchargesinthegrossIRRspresented Past targetedorprojectedperformanceisnotnecessarilyindicativeoffutureresultsandtherecanbenoassurancethattargetedorprojectedreturnswillbeachievedorthattheFundwillachievecomparableresults ReferencestoportfoliocompaniesarepresentedtoillustratetheapplicationofCarlyle sinvestmentprocessonlyandshouldnotbeconsideredarecommendationofanyparticularsecurityorportfoliocompany Informationaboutrecommendationsoverthelastyearisavailableuponrequest Itshouldnotbeassumedthatrecommendationsmadeinthefuturewillbeprofitableorwillequaltheperformanceofpastrecommendations Certaininformationcontainedinthispresentation includingthevaluesgivenforsomeassets isnon public proprietaryandhighlyconfidentialinformation Accordingly byacceptingandusingthispresentation youwillbedeemedtoagreenottodiscloseanyinformationcontainedhereinexceptasmayberequiredbylaw Inaddition certaininformationcontainedinthispresentationhasbeenobtainedfrompublishedandnon publishedsourcespreparedbyotherparties whichincertaincaseshavenotbeenupdatedthroughthedatehereof Whilesuchinformationisbelievedtobereliableforthepurposeusedinthispresentation CarlyledoesnotassumeanyresponsibilityfortheaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchinformationandsuchinformationhasnotbeenindependentlyverifiedbyCarlyle Exceptwhereotherwiseindicatedherein theinformationprovidedinthispresentationisbasedonmattersastheyexistasofthedateofpreparationandnotasofanyfuturedate andwillnotbeupdatedorotherwiserevisedtoreflectinformationthatsubsequentlybecomesavailable orcircumstancesexistingorchangesoccurringafterthedatehereof Certaininformationcontainedhereinconstitutes forward lookingstatements whichcanbeidentifiedbytheuseoftermssuchas may will should expect anticipate project estimate intend continue target or believe orthenegativesthereof orothervariationsthereonorcomparableterminology Duetovariousrisksanduncertainties actualeventsorresultsoractualperformanceoftheFundmaydiffermateriallyfromthosereflectedorcontemplatedinsuchforward lookingstatements Asaresult investorsshouldnotrelyonsuchforward lookingstatementsinmakingtheirinvestmentdecisions Norepresentationorwarrantyismadeastofutureperformanceorsuchforward lookingstatements ExecutiveSummary WhatHappened WhatRoleWillPrivateEquityPlay I WhatHappened ACrisisbyManyNames August2007 Today ToCome MoneyMarketFundsAutoLoansCreditCardLendingCommercialRealEstateLiquidity andOneUnderlyingCommonTheme LEH AIG WaMu WachoviaHypoREFortisB BDexia TARP Leverage ReversalofGlass Steagallin1999setoffaleverageraceonWallStreetLeverageoutsidethebankingsystemlargelyunregulated misunderstoodExplosionofcreditmarketsallowedeachsegmentofrisktobeisolated andfurtherleveragedTieringofriskallowedformultiplelayersofleveragewithlimitedtransparencyInvestorsbecamecomplacentwhileregulatorsbecameoverwhelmed WhileCurrentCrisisinManyWaysMirrorsPastCreditCycles Inflatedhousing realestatevaluesLaxmonetarypolicythatlastedtoolongFlatyieldcurveCheapcreditcompoundedbylossofinvestordisciplineWeakregulatoryframework Lossofconfidence ExtentofLeverageisaDifferentiatingFeatureofthisParticularCycle GovernmentDebt1 FederalandConsumerDebtas ofGDP2 1 OfficeofManagementandBudget BudgetoftheUnitedStates FY2007 2 U S ChamberofCommerceasof8 27 08 BankLeverage2 ExtentofLeverageisaDifferentiatingFeatureofthisParticularCycle ShareofIntermediationThroughBanks SecuritiesMarkets1 1 MorganStanley LeveredLosses LessonsLearnedfromtheMortgageMarketMeltdown 2 08 2 SNLFinancial Dataasof7 31 08 TotalAssetsofTop5Brokers1 tril 6 CAGR 16 CAGR 1 SNLFinancial TopbrokerstradedontheNYSEandNASDAQ 2 Source LehmanBrothers Dataprovided8 28 08 GlobalIssuanceofStructuredFinanceProducts2 ExtentofLeverageisaDifferentiatingFeatureofthisParticularCycle AnecdotesofLeverage 2 3trilin AAA guaranteessupportedbysixmonolineswithlessthan 20bilinequity 0 8 1 InJune2007 financialsmadeup20 9 ofS P500Impliesthatapproximately30 ofeverydollarearnedbyanS P500companywasearnedbyafinancialservicesfirmTotalassetsofthetop5brokeragehousesintheU S equaledapproximately35 ofthetotalU S annualGDP Balancesheetswereleveredonaverage30 1 3 In1998 failureofLongTermCapitalbroughtmarketstotheirknees basedonalossof 4 6bil 4 To datesystemhasincurredapproximately75x 5 thisamount Industry scapitalbaseincreasedbyonly2 5xthatduringthistime 6 PershingSquareCapitalManagement HowtoSavetheBondInsurers 11 07CompanyReports DataasofQ42007SNLFinancial DataasofQ42007FinancialTimes Bankbailoutshowsneedtointervene 6 08Lossestimateto dateof 460bilprovidedbyGoldmanSachs Dataprovidedon8 28 08 InflationdataprovidedbytheU S departmentofLabor SNLFinancial Asmeasuredbytangiblecapitalbaseoftop25U S financialinstitutions excludinginsurancecompanies from1998toQ22008 Mortgages Mortgages Mortgages Cash Cash Cash Fees AAA Cash Cash AABelow Notes Cash 10to1 50to1 Warehouse 50to1 15to1 30to1 Consumer LoanOrigination WallStreet StructuredABSRatingsAgencies 70 FNMAFHLMC 30 BankInsuranceCompanies CDOs AAA s AA A BBB BB Equity WallStreet Source WachoviaSecurities LifestylesoftheRichandLivingRich ATaleofTwoConsumers 2005 400to1Leverage TheLeverageGame Notwithstandingtheexistingunderlyingleverage bankscouldleverAAAsecuritiesbyover100 1 Riskvs Information Originator WarehouseProvider SeniorBonds MezzanineBonds SubBonds ResidualNotes CDOEquity PerformanceRisk UnderlyingCollateralKnowledge Least Most EfficientFrontier Source WachoviaSecurities LifestylesoftheRichandLivingRich ATaleofTwoConsumers 2005 Thosewhoknewthemostheldtheleastamountoftherisk whilethosewhoknewtheleastendedupholdingthemostrisk Asshownbytheinabilityofthenation s10largestbankstodeleverage transitionwilltaketime MakeNoMistake WeAreattheBeginningofThisCrisis CreditmarketspointtowardssignificantlymorepaintocomeConsumerslowtoreact hasyettoadjusttonewrealitiesWearenoteventalkingaboutlargeloomingissues autos creditcard commercialREWeakpoliticalleadershipwillprolongrecovery TotalAssetsofTop10Banks tril Source SNL TopbankstradedontheNYSEandNASDAQ StillinEarlyInnings Industryhastakenlessthan50 oflossesestimatedbymostresponsibleanalystsIMF 0 9tril 1 Pimco1 0 2 FederalReserve1 2 3 Paulson Co 1 3 4 InternationalMonetaryFund GlobalFinancialStabilityReport 4 08BillGrossofPimco InvestmentOutlook Mooooooo 7 08FederalReserveBoard ForeignExposuretoAsset BackedSecuritiesofU S Origin 8 08Bloomberg Paulson Co SaysWritedownsMayReach 1 3Trillion 6 08 Source GoldmanSachsResearch Dataprovided9 26 08 LossesRealizedTo date LossEstimates figuresin bil U S Europe Restof world Total Brokers 93 76 1 170 Banks 97 109 14 221 SpecialtyFinance 37 37 Insurance Asset Mgr 39 7 45 Total 266 191 15 473 HousingMarketWeaknessToPersist DurationofHousingDowntownfromPeaktoTroughasMeasuredbyHousingStarts WithDemandDroppingoffFasterthanProduction theNumberofVacantUnitsBallooned Housingmarketstillmateriallyweakduetosignificantover supplyResetshaveyettoimpactnumbers 2009 2010issue norhasthefullimpactofforeclosuresbeenbuiltintosupplyprojectionsVacant for salehomesareneararecord highshareofthehousingstockForeclosuresattheirhighestlevelssincerecordkeepingbeganin1974 likelytoincrease 1 Mortgagerateshavenotfallen contributingtocontinuedsoftness Source U S CensusBureau DataasofJuly2008 1 NourielRoubini ProspectsfortheU S andGlobalEconomyin2008andImplicationsforFinancialMarkets 4 08 Note Newhomesalesandhousingcompletionsincludesingle familyunitsonly Sources U S CensusBureau NewResidentialConstruction HousingVacancySurvey Change2005 2007 HousingCompletions VacantHeldOffMarket VacantforSale NewHomeSales GovernmentInterventionisIncreasing Macromeasures monetary fiscalpolicyFedFunds 5 25 to2 0 DiscountRate5 75 to2 25 Bushstimulusplan taxrebate 168BLiquidityNew expandingliquidityfacilitiesExpandingcollateralcategoriesRegulatoryPaulsonPlanAdhocresponsesBearStearnsFannieMae FreddieMacAIGWaMuWachovia Purchase 700BoftroubledassetsRemovetoxic illiquidassetsfromsystemFocusonresidentialandcommercialrealestateMBSandwholeloansExpandingtoincludeseveraladditionalassetclassesPricingmechanismwillbekeyReverseauctionlikelytoolPrimarilytargetingUSfinancialfirms PreviousActions ProposedTreasuryBailout TARP AdditionalMeasures MoneymarketfundguaranteeShort sellingbanIncreasingPEownershiplimitstoattractadditionalcapitalintobanks UnintendedConsequences GSE sTakeoverLehmanBrothersWaMuTARP Whiledollarhasbeenstrongintheshortterm havewecreatedalongertermproblembydoublingthesizeofthenationaldebt Byfocusingonavoidingthe moralhazard didweinadvertentlycreatearunonthemoneymarketfunds EradicationofbankcompanydebtforcedWachoviatransactionandincreasedcostoffundingsystem wideTobedetermined butoutlookisnotgood LandscapeoftheFinancialServicesIndustryWillLookMarkedlyDifferent Financialservicesindustrywillunwind slowlyandpainfullyInvestmentBanks SpecialtyFinanceCompaniesandRatingAgencieshavethemosttoloseNon traditionalconsumerborrowingwilllargelydisappearWholesalefundingmodelsmaynevercomebackSectorwillshrinktobeapproximately10 oftheS P500DisintermediationwillallowthebankingindustrytogrowConsumerandcommercialfinanceRateswillriseFlighttoqualitywill has force d highlevelofconsolidationHeightenedlevelsofreceivershipThosewithoutdifferentiationwillmerge II WhatRoleWillPrivateEquityPlay AuniqueroleintherecapitalizationoftheindustryHighvolatility lowtransparencylimitstheroleofthepublicmarketsEquivalentofbuyingalotteryticketabsentanabilitytocompletesignificantduediligencePrivateequityhasthecapacity competencyandmandatetoundertakeduediligence evaluate structuretransactionsHowever limitedfinancialservicesexpertisecurrentlyexistsintheindustry PrivateEquitytoPlayaUniqueRole Supply demandimbalancetoallowforoutsizedreturnsIndustrylikelytoneedcloseto 500bilinnewequityTop3PEfundsdedicatedtoFinancialServiceshavelessthan 20bilincapacityWhileco investmentbyLP scouldincreaseavailablecapitalby2 3x lackofavailable advisableleveragelimitsavailablecapitalShouldallowPEtobethoughtfulanddemanding hasnotbeenthecasetodate Importantly PEshopsabletoinstillconfidence inadditiontoinjectingcapital willbeabletochargedearlyfortheircapital PrivateEquitytoPlayaUniqueRole AnatomyofsuccessfulinvestmentsrelativelystraightforwardRecapitalizationmustsolvetheproblem subsequentdilutiontooexpensive onerousInordertoensurethatnewcapitalsolvest