管理学原理robbinsPPT

.Copyright2005PrenticeHall,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,.,62,LEARNINGOUTLINEFollowthisLearningOutlineasyoureadandstudythischapter.,TheDecision-MakingProcessDefinedecisionanddecision-makingprocess.Describetheeightstepsinthedecision-makingprocess.TheManagerasDecisionMakerDiscusstheassumptionsofrationaldecisionmaking.Describetheconceptsofboundedrationality,satisficing,andescalationofcommitment.Explainwhatintuitionisandhowitaffectsdecisionmaking.Contrastprogrammedandnonprogrammeddecisions.,.,63,LEARNINGOUTLINE(contd)FollowthisLearningOutlineasyoureadandstudythischapter.,TheManagerasDecisionMaker(contd)Contrastthethreedecision-makingconditions.Explainmaximax,maximin,andminimaxdecisionchoiceapproaches.Describethefourdecisionmakingstyles.Discussthetwelvedecision-makingbiasesmanagersmayexhibit.Describehowmanagercandealwiththenegativeeffectsofdecisionerrorsandbiases.Explainthemanagerialdecision-makingmodel.,.,64,LEARNINGOUTLINE(contd)FollowthisLearningOutlineasyoureadandstudythischapter.,DecisionMakingforTodaysWorldExplainhowmanagerscanmakeeffectivedecisionsintodaysworld.Listsixcharacteristicsofaneffectivedecision-makingprocess.Describethefivehabitsofhighlyreliableorganizations.,.,65,DecisionMaking,DecisionMakingachoicefromtwoormorealternatives.TheDecision-MakingProcessIdentifyingaproblemanddecisioncriteriaandallocatingweightstothecriteria.Developing,analyzing,andselectinganalternativethatcanresolvetheproblem.Implementingtheselectedalternative.Evaluatingthedecisionseffectiveness.,.,66,Exhibit6.1,TheDecision-MakingProcess,.,67,Step1:IdentifyingtheProblem,ProblemAdiscrepancybetweenanexistinganddesiredstateofaffairs.CharacteristicsofProblemsAproblembecomesaproblemwhenamanagerbecomesawareofit.Thereispressuretosolvetheproblem.Themanagermusthavetheauthority,information,orresourcesneededtosolvetheproblem.,.,68,Step2:IdentifyingDecisionCriteria,Decisioncriteriaarefactorsthatareimportant(relevant)toresolvingtheproblem.Coststhatwillbeincurred(investmentsrequired)Riskslikelytobeencountered(chanceoffailure)Outcomesthataredesired(growthofthefirm),Step3:AllocatingWeightstotheCriteria,Decisioncriteriaarenotofequalimportance:Assigningaweighttoeachitemplacestheitemsinthecorrectpriorityorderoftheirimportanceinthedecisionmakingprocess.,.,69,Exhibit6.2,CriteriaandWeightsforFranchiseDecision,.,610,Step4:DevelopingAlternatives,IdentifyingviablealternativesAlternativesarelisted(withoutevaluation)thatcanresolvetheproblem.,Step5:AnalyzingAlternatives,AppraisingeachalternativesstrengthsandweaknessesAnalternativesappraisalisbasedonitsabilitytoresolvetheissuesidentifiedinsteps2and3.,.,611,Step6:SelectinganAlternative,ChoosingthebestalternativeThealternativewiththehighesttotalweightischosen.,Step7:ImplementingtheDecision,Puttingthechosenalternativeintoaction.Conveyingthedecisiontoandgainingcommitmentfromthosewhowillcarryoutthedecision.,.,612,Exhibit6.3,AssessedValuesofFranchiseOpportunitiesUsingDecisionCriteria,.,613,Exhibit6.4,EvaluationofFranchiseAlternativesAgainstWeightedCriteria,.,614,Step8:EvaluatingtheDecisionsEffectiveness,Thesoundnessofthedecisionisjudgedbyitsoutcomes.Howeffectivelywastheproblemresolvedbyoutcomesresultingfromthechosenalternatives?Iftheproblemwasnotresolved,whatwentwrong?,.,615,MakingDecisions,RationalityManagersmakeconsistent,value-maximizingchoiceswithspecifiedconstraints.Assumptionsarethatdecisionmakers:Areperfectlyrational,fullyobjective,andlogical.Havecarefullydefinedtheproblemandidentifiedallviablealternatives.HaveaclearandspecificgoalWillselectthealternativethatmaximizesoutcomesintheorganizationsinterestsratherthanintheirpersonalinterests.,.,616,Exhibit6.6,AssumptionsofRationality,.,617,MakingDecisions(contd),BoundedRationalityManagersmakedecisionsrationally,butarelimited(bounded)bytheirabilitytoprocessinformation.Assumptionsarethatdecisionmakers:WillnotseekoutorhaveknowledgeofallalternativesWillsatisficechoosethefirstalternativeencounteredthatsatisfactorilysolvestheproblemratherthanmaximizetheoutcomeoftheirdecisionbyconsideringallalternativesandchoosingthebest.,.,618,InfluencesonDecisionMaking,EscalationofCommitmentIncreasingorcontinuingacommitmenttopreviousdecisiondespitemountingevidencethatthedecisionmayhavebeenwrong.TheRoleofIntuitionIntuitivedecisionmakingMakingdecisionsonthebasisofexperience,feelings,andaccumulatedjudgement.,.,619,Exhibit6.7,WhatisIntuition?,Source:BasedonL.A.BurkeandM.K.Miller.“TakingtheMysteryOutofIntuitiveDecisionMaking.”AcademyofManagementExecutive.October1999.pp.9199.,.,620,ProblemsandDecisions,StructuredProblemsInvolvegoalsthatclear.Arefamiliar(haveoccurredbefore).Areeasilyandcompletelydefinedinformationabouttheproblemisavailableandcomplete.ProgrammedDecisionArepetitivedecisionthatcanbehandledbyaroutineapproach.,.,621,TypesofProgrammedDecisions,APolicyAgeneralguidelineformakingadecisionaboutastructuredproblem.AProcedureAseriesofinterrelatedstepsthatamanagercanusetorespond(applyingapolicy)toastructuredproblem.ARuleAnexplicitstatementthatlimitswhatamanageroremployeecanorcannotdoincarryingoutthestepsinvolvedinaprocedure.,.,622,Policy,Procedure,andRuleExample,PolicyAcceptallcustomer-returnedmerchandise.ProcedureFollowallstepsforcompletingmerchandisereturndocumentation.RulesManagersmustapproveallrefundsover$50.00.Nocreditpurchasesarerefundedforcash.,.,623,ProblemsandDecisions(contd),UnstructuredProblemsProblemsthatareneworunusualandforwhichinformationisambiguousorincomplete.Problemsthatwillrequirecustom-madesolutions.NonprogrammedDecisionsDecisionsthatareuniqueandnonrecurring.Decisionsthatgenerateuniqueresponses.,.,624,Exhibit6.8,TypesofProblems,TypesofDecisions,andLevelintheOrganization,.,625,Decision-MakingConditions,CertaintyAidealsituationinwhichamanagercanmakeanaccuratedecisionbecausetheoutcomeofeveryalternativechoiceisknown.RiskAsituationinwhichthemanagerisabletoestimatethelikelihood(probability)ofoutcomesthatresultfromthechoiceofparticularalternatives.,.,626,Decision-MakingConditions,UncertaintyLimitedorinformationpreventsestimationofoutcomeprobabilitiesforalternativesassociatedwiththeproblemandmayforcemanagerstorelyonintuition,hunches,and“gutfeelings”.Maximax:theoptimisticmanagerschoicetomaximizethemaximumpayoffMaximin:thepessimisticmanagerschoicetomaximizetheminimumpayoffMinimax:themanagerschoicetominimizehismaximumregret.,.,627,Exhibit6.9,ExpectedValueforRevenuesfromtheAdditionofOneSkiLift,ExpectedExpectedProbability=ValueofEachEventRevenuesAlternativeHeavysnowfall$850,0000.3=$255,000Normalsnowfall725,0000.5=362,500Lightsnowfall350,0000.2=70,000$687,500,.,628,Exhibit6.10,PayoffMatrix,.,629,Exhibit6.11,RegretMatrix,.,630,Decision-MakingStyles,DimensionsofDecision-MakingStylesWaysofthinkingRational,orderly,andconsistentIntuitive,creative,anduniqueToleranceforambiguityLowtolerance:requireconsistencyandorderHightolerance:multiplethoughtssimultaneously,.,631,Decision-MakingStyles(contd),TypesofDecisionMakersDirectiveUseminimalinformationandconsiderfewalternatives.AnalyticMakecarefuldecisionsinuniquesituations.ConceptualMaintainabroadoutlookandconsidermanyalternativesinmakinglong-termdecisions.BehavioralAvoidconflictbyworkingwellwithothersandbeingreceptivetosuggestions.,.,632,Exhibit6.12,Decision-MakingStyles,Source:S.P.RobbinsandD.A.DeCenzo,SupervisionToday.2nded.(UpperSaddleRiver,NJ:PrenticeHall,1998).p.166.,.,633,Exhibit6.13,CommonDecision-MakingErrorsandBiases,.,634,Decision-MakingBiasesandErrors,HeuristicsUsing“rulesofthumb”tosimplifydecisionmaking.OverconfidenceBiasHoldingunrealisticallypositiveviewsofonesselfandonesperformance.ImmediateGratificationBiasChoosingalternativesthatofferimmediaterewardsandthattoavoidimmediatecosts.,.,635,Decision-MakingBiasesandErrors(contd),AnchoringEffectFixatingoninitialinformationandignoringsubsequentinformation.SelectivePerceptionSelectingorganizingandinterpretingeventsbasedonthedecisionmakersbiasedperceptions.ConfirmationBiasSeekingoutinformationthatreaffirmspastchoicesanddiscountingcontradictoryinformation.,.,636,Decision-MakingBiasesandErrors(contd),FramingBiasSelectingandhighlightingcertainaspectsofasituationwhileignoringotheraspects.AvailabilityBiasLosingdecision-makingobjectivitybyfocusingonthemostrecentevents.RepresentationBiasDrawinganalogiesandseeingidenticalsituationswhennoneexist.RandomnessBiasCreatingunfoundedmeaningoutofrandomevents.,.,637,Decision-MakingBiasesandErrors(contd),SunkCostsErrorsForgettingthatcurrentactionscannotinfluencepasteventsandrelateonlytofutureconsequences.Self-ServingBiasTakingquickcreditforsuccessesandblamingoutsidefactorsfo