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LongitudinalWorkforceAnalysisusingRoutinelyCollectedData:ChallengesandPossibilities,ShereenHussein,BScMScPhDKingsCollegeLondon,LongitudinalAnalysis,Generaladvantages,CancontrolforindividualheterogeneitySubjectserveasowncontrolBetween-subjectvariationexcludedfromerrorCanbetterassesscausalitythancross-sectionaldata,Generalchallenges,ConventionalstatisticalmethodsrequireindependencebetweenobservationsLongitudinaldataarelikelytoviolatethisassumptionMissingdataduetoattritionDataavailability,29/5/2012,2,WorkforceDataExample:NMDS-SC,StructureDesignCoverageTimespanTypeofinformationcollectedDatacollectionandarchivingsize,29/5/2012,3,NMDS-SCdatastructure,SocialcareprovidersinEngland,CompleteNMDS-SCreturns,Aggregateinformationontheworkforce,Detailedinformationonallorsomeindividualworkers,ProvidersDatabase,workersDatabase,Linkable,29/5/2012,4,NMDS-SClongitudinalanalysis:potential,DatacoverageWiderangeofprovidersandindividualworkersinformationSectorspecific-uniquenessHierarchicalstructureWorkforcedevelopmentandbusinesssustainabilityTimelyDemographics,austerity,unemploymentEconomicsCarecosts,includingturnovercostsPayLinkabletolocaldatacharacteristics,29/5/2012,5,ChallengesinNMDS-SClongitudinalanalysis,NosamplingframeworkNoregularintervalsfordatacollectionIrregularitiesindatacompletionbydifferentprovidersAdditions/alterationsofvariablesandfieldsCumulativenatureandconsequencesondatasizeandstructureArchiving,29/5/2012,6,ChallengesinNMDS-SClongitudinalanalysis-continued,Computational,DatasizeInnovationinsystemdesignandarchitectureAccumulativepropertyScalabilityofthesystemChangesindatafieldsVariableadditionsandomissionsDataover-rideandarchivingSoftwareandhardwareissues,Methodological,Unusualpatternsoffollow-upCensoringVariabilityinthedatabaseovertimeUnbalancedcohortdesignMissingdataUpdatefrequencyAttritionTrueexitOthermethodologicalissues,29/5/2012,7,Providerslevellongitudinalmapping,FromDecember2007toMarch2011Linked18separatedatabasesontheproviderslevelEachhasrecordsfrom13,095to25,266421,671validrecordsincludedintheconstructionNumberofupdatesrangedfrom0to18perproviderContinuousprocess,morerecordsaddedevery3months,29/5/2012,8,Meta-dataanalysis:providerswithdifferentnumberofevents,29/5/2012,9,Specificexample1:Providerswith18updates,29/5/2012,10,29/5/2012,11,Specificexample2:Providerswith2updates,Densitydistributionplotofproviderswithatleast2updatesduringtheperiodDecember2007toMarch2011,29/5/2012,12,densitydistributionsofnumberofdayselapsedbetweentwoupdatedprovidersevents,29/5/2012,13,Simpleexampleusingprovidersdatabase:workforcestabilityovertime,LongitudinalchangesincareworkersturnoverandvacancyratesovertimeFromJanuary2008toJanuary2010Changesinreasonsforleavingthesector,identifiedbyemployersDifferentiatingbetweenthosewithimproved(reduced)turnoverratesandthosewithworse(increased)turnoverrates,29/5/2012,14,Preanalysis,SelectingandconstructingproviderspanelIncludingthosewithatleasttwoupdateswithin+/-3monthsofT1andT22953providerswithmeancoveragedurationof602dInvestigatesamplerepresentationDataqualitychecksDatamanipulation/imputation,29/5/2012,15,Somefindings:changesinturnoverrates,29/5/2012,16,Reasonforleavingandturnoverratechanges,29/5/2012,17,Analysisexpansion:nextsteps,ConsiderchangesoveralongerperiodoftimeExamineotherproviderscharacteristicsDifferenttakeonpanelinclusioncriteriaLinktoindividualworkerslongitudinaldatabasestoexaminerelationswithdetailedworkforcestructurePay,qualifications,profileetc.Buildeconomicelementswithinanalysesmodels,e.g.specific-turnovercosts,withinthelongitudinalmodel,29/5/2012,18,Workerslevellongitudinalanalysis,AmuchlargerdatabaseSameperiodoftime-over11MrecordsProvidersnotrequiredtocompleteinformationforallworkersStructural/designmissingdataTruemissingdataLinkageissuesmoredatafieldsrequiredforidentificationandlinkageConsiderablylargenumberofvariablesandfieldsCarefulplanning;analysis-tailoreddataretrievalChangesindatabaseAmendments,newvariablesetc.Programmingintensiveanddemandingmodels(maynotbereplicablefordifferentdatabases),29/5/2012,19,29/5/2012,20,Issuestoconsider,SuitabilityofmodelsLongitudinalstructureCompetingrisksMeasurementwindowLateentryintorisksetsUseproxies,othervariablesinthedatasetAdoptsuitableapproach/modelCensoring(LHSandRHS)AssumptionsGuidedby:Sector-specificknowledgeIntelligencefromothervariablesinthedata,29/5/2012,21,CurrentlongitudinalresearchWatchthisspace!,WorkforcemobilitywithinthesectorOccupationdurationsCharacteristic-specificprobabilitiesofexitingorremaininginthesectorCharacteristic-specificprobabilitiesofmovingemployerwithinthesectororhavingmultiplejobsCareerpathwayswithinthesector,29/5/2012,22,Acknowledgments,ThankstotheDepartmentofHealthforfundingthisworkThankstoSkillsforCareforprovidingthe
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