《通胀和失业》PPT课件.ppt

Lecture10:通胀和失业,通胀的成本,我们已经了解到了非常高的通胀如何能彻底地扰乱经济活动。但是，经合组织国家目前关心的是，如0%还是4%的年通胀率带来的更多的好处。在通胀的这个范围内，经济学家找到了通胀所带来的4个主要方面的成本：(1)皮鞋成本,(2)税收扭曲,(3)货币幻觉,和(4)通胀的波动性。,皮鞋成本,皮鞋成本是指在存在通胀时，人们经常光顾银行的成本。因为这时人们认为持有货币的机会成本增加了。,税收扭曲,当税收率不能随着通货膨胀自动上升，也就是没有税档潜升时，就会发生税收扭曲。针对收入的税收包括的是名义利息支付而不是实际利息支付。,货币幻觉,货币幻觉是指人们在评估名义变化和实际变化时，好像犯了系统性错误，导致人们做出了错误的决定。这一概念与通胀的成本存在联系。,通胀的波动性,通胀的波动性意味着承诺将来要支付固定名义金额的金融资产，如债券，其风险变大。,货币幻觉,一项调查显示，货币幻觉非常普遍，人们需要一段时间对通货膨胀作出调整。,通胀的好处,确实，通胀并不总是不好。我们可以发现通胀三个方面的好处：(1)铸币收入,(2)对于宏观经济政策而言，可以选择负的实际利率(3)利用货币幻觉和通胀的相互作用，可以方便地调整实际工资。,Question1:,Shouldpolicybeactiveorpassive?,?,GrowthrateofU.S.realGDP,-4,-2,0,2,4,6,8,10,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2005,Percentchangefrom4quartersearlier,Increaseinunemploymentduringrecessions,Argumentsforactivepolicy,Recessionscauseeconomichardshipformillionsofpeople.TheEmploymentActof1946:“ItisthecontinuingpolicyandresponsibilityoftheFederalGovernmenttopromotefullemploymentandproduction.”Themodelofaggregatedemandandsupply(Chaps.9-13)showshowfiscalandmonetarypolicycanrespondtoshocksandstabilizetheeconomy.,Argumentsagainstactivepolicy,PoliciesactwithlongdecreasemoneygrowthwhennominalGDPgrowthexceedstarget.,a.Constantmoneysupplygrowthrate,Monetarypolicyrules,c.TargettheinflationrateAutomaticallyreducemoneygrowthwheneverinflationrisesabovethetargetrate.Manycountriescentralbanksnowpracticeinflationtargeting,butallowthemselvesalittlediscretion.,a.Constantmoneysupplygrowthrate,b.TargetgrowthrateofnominalGDP,Monetarypolicyrules,d.TheTaylorrule:Targetthefederalfundsratebasedoninflationrategapbetweenactual&full-employmentGDP,c.Targettheinflationrate,a.Constantmoneysupplygrowthrate,b.TargetgrowthrateofnominalGDP,TheTaylorRule,iff=+2+0.5(2)0.5(GDPgap)whereiff=nominalfederalfundsratetargetGDPgap=100 x=percentbywhichrealGDPisbelowitsnaturalrate,TheTaylorRule,iff=+2+0.5(2)0.5(GDPgap),If=2andoutputisatitsnaturalrate,thenfedfundsratetargetedat4percent.Foreachone-pointincreasein,mon.policyisautomaticallytightenedtoraisefedfundsrateby1.5.ForeachonepercentagepointthatGDPfallsbelowitsnaturalrate,mon.policyautomaticallyeasestoreducethefedfundsrateby0.5.,Thefederalfundsrate:Actualandsuggested,Percent,0,2,4,6,8,10,12,1987,1990,1993,1996,1999,2002,2005,Centralbankindependence,Apolicyruleannouncedbycentralbankwillworkonlyiftheannouncementiscredible.Credibilitydependsinpart